The Role of the State in China`s Economy Advancing or Retreating?
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1 The Role of the State in China`s Economy Advancing or Retreating? Daniel H. Rosen Director, China Practice The Brookings Institution Washington, DC March 1, East 40 th Street, Suite 3601, New York, NY Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy Tel: Fax: Web: 1 The State in China`s Post-Reform Economy: Retreating Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 2
2 Number of Chinese Industrial Enterprises by Ownership % of total firms Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG. * includes Limited Liability Corporations, Share Holding Corporations, Collective Owned, Cooperative s, Joint Ownerships, etc. Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 3 Industrial Output by Firm Ownership % of total output, Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG.. * includes Limited Liability Corporations, Share Holding Corporations, Collective Owned, Cooperative s, Joint Ownerships, etc. Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 4
3 Total Industrial Assets by Ownership % of total assets Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG. * includes Share Holding Corporations, Collective Owned, etc. Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 5 Employment by Ownership % of total work force Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG. * includes Limited Liability Corporations, Share Holding Corporations, Joint Ownerships, etc. ** includes Self-employed etc. Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 6
4 Trade: China s Trade Balance by Firm Ownership Monthly balance*, $bn, 3mma Source: China Customs, NBS, CEIC, RHG, *chart does not include all ownership categories Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 7 The State in the 2008/2009 Financial Crisis: Advancing Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 8
5 Urban FAI: Government-Influenced vs. Market-Based % change yoy Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG; *adjusted with FAI price deflator. Government influenced FAI includes utilities, transportation and information infrastructure, banking and insurance, infrastructure services and environmental management, education, healthcare and public administration; Market-based FAI includes all other sectors; Real estate only includes the property sector. Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 9 Marginal Contribution to Urban FAI Growth % contribution to total yoy change Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 10
6 Urban FAI by Firm Ownership RMB trn, % yoy change nominal, 3mma Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG. *Other includes: Collective Enterrprise, Share Cooperative and Joint Enterprise etc. Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 11 Profit Margins of Industrial Enterprises by Firm Ownership % of sales revenue Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 12
7 The State in a Rebalanced Economy: Advancing and Retreating! Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 13 GDP by expenditure % of the total, Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 14
8 Public Spending as a Share of GDP % of GDP, 2007 Source: World Bank, CEIC, RHG. Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 15 Government Revenue and Expenditure RMB bn, all government levels, 3 months moving average Source: MOF, CEIC, RHG Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 16
9 Government Debt as Share of GDP % of GDP Source: EIU, RHG Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 17 Governance Indicators: China in Comparison, 2008 Governance effectiveness on a scale from -2.5 (low) to 2.5 (high) Source: World Bank, RHG Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 18
10 Distribution of Domestic Banking Assets, 2009 % share of total domestic banking assets Source: CBRC, CEIC, RHG Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 19 Breakdown of Lending by Sector New Medium and Long Term Loans, RMB trn Source: PBoC, *RHG estimates Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 20
11 Informal Borrowing Rates: Wenzhou % p.a. Source: PBoC, CEIC, RHG Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 21 Average Profit Margins of Selected Industries % 2005-Nov 2009 Source: NBS, CEIC, RHG Brookings March 1, 2011 The State in China`s Economy 22
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