11 th UNCTAD Debt Management Conference
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1 11 th UNCTAD Debt Management Conference November 2017 Palais des Nations, Geneva Debt records and operational risk support available from international organizations by Ms. Lilia Razlog Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management Global Practice, World Bank The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.
2 World Bank Group Government Debt and Operational risk management Lilia Razlog World Bank November 2017 UNCTAD
3 Overview 1. Increasing complexity of public debt management 2. Operational risks in the DMO 3. How to manage risks: Debt Management Facility TF
4 Public debt has increased in recent years across all regions, with MNA and SSA standing out 3
5 Among IDA countries, commodity exporters and post-hipcs showed strong increases... 4
6 with two-thirds of IDA countries seeing an increase over the past decade 5
7 The increase was driven primarily by domestic debt, but external debt also rose Low income HIPC Commodity Exporters (IDA) Small States (IDA) Low income HIPC Commodity Exporters (IDA) Small States (IDA) 6
8 Rising portfolio inflows to EMs despite falling sovereign ratings suggest that market demand may not be driven by fundamentals but by search for yield...
9 Government Debt management as complex as ever A key task of the DMO is the management of risks inherent in the public debt portfolio. Risk management involves being able to identify, measure, monitor and mitigate or control each category of risk. What to finance: Choose feasible projects with the highest social return (Public Investment Management) How much to finance: Take into account initial conditions (debt situation), the global environment (volatility) and the country s repayment capacity in the short and medium term (DSA) How to finance (choice of instruments): MTDS cost/risk trade offs; look into macro implications of alternative debt instruments Successful fulfilment of such tasks requires a consolidated debt database and risk assessment tools
10 Quality of government debt management requires reforms: 112 DeMPAs conducted between countries across 6 regions 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% N/R, N/A D C B A 0% AFR EAP ECA LAC MNA SAR Total 9
11 Comparison of debt management performance over medium time
12 Performance tracking for each area of reforms 100% LEGAL FRAMEWORK MANAGERIAL STRUCTURE DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY EVALUATION OF DEBT MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS AUDIT COORDINATION WITH FISCAL POLICY COORDINATION WITH MONETARY POLICY DOMESTIC BORROWING EXTERNAL BORROWING LOAN GUARANTEES, ON LENDING DERIVATIVES CASH FLOW FORECASTING AND CASH BALANCE MANAGEMENT DEBT ADMINISTRATION AND DATA SECURITY SEGREGATION OF DUTIES, STAFF CAPACITY AND BCP DEBT RECORDS DEBT REPORTING 80% 60% 54% 60% 61% 64% 40% 45% 43% 34% 45% 20% 22% 11% 19% 24% 22% 15% 22% 0% DeMPA results: scores C and higher by Debt Management categories
13 Operational Risk examples of threats Infrastructure and Technology failures Incidents where access to premises is denied Key service providers of resource failure dependences Staff management and related human failures Failure to meet statutory, human, legal resources and other obligations Major regional or natural disasters
14 Operational risk can be managed and mitigated, but it cannot be eliminated entirely Operational risk tends to increase with the complexity of operations Operational risk accompanies all debt management activities A mitigation for one aspect of operational risk may increase other aspects Operational risk Operational Risk Front Office Middle Office Back Office Complexity of operations Focus in the first instance on reducing the high-impact, highlikelihood aspects of operational risk But still manage the other aspects
15 The Debt Management Facility (DMF) DMF Program Principles and Products Governance Partnership Strengthening debt management capacity and institutions through a number of tools that help countries assess and plan their debt management 14
16 DMF II: TA and Products Medium term debt management strategy (MTDS) Debt Management Reform Plans Domestic Debt Market Development Debt Manager s Practitioners Program Subnational Debt Management Debt Managers Network Peer-2-Peer interaction DeMPA Trainings Online Face-2-face DSA Objective: Strengthen Capacity Principles: Programmatic Approach Demand Driven DMF- Global Knowledge
17 DMF - Program Implementation to date
18 Strategic direction continue to help and expand
19 Debt Management Facility (DMF) - Partnership Joint Implementation of the Program Missions to Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Gambia Missions to Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Kenya, Zambia Missions to Rwanda, Congo, Dem. Rep., Tajikistan, Zimbabwe, Togo, other Mission to Nicaragua; MTDS Training in Mexico Missions to Kyrgyz Republic, Togo, Niger, Papua New Guinea Activities in Franco-phone Africa A Global Partnership in Action ICG progress Report Page 18
20 DMF II Partnership - Donors AfDB.
21 Conclusions Sustainability of results - Focusing support for debt management reforms implementation along with broader PFM reforms - Providing programmatic assistance to eligible countries for the medium to long term - Maintaining integrity and quality of DMF TA - Keeping in mind that key factors for successful debt management are based on macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline
22 Debt Management Facility DMF News:
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