From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation. Discussant: Gita Gopinath Harvard University

Transcription

1 From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation Discussant: Gita Gopinath Harvard University 1

2 Highlights 2

3 Highlights Blind Spots: 1. Expectations driven crises 2. Liquidity crises 2

4 Highlights Blind Spots: 1. Expectations driven crises 2. Liquidity crises Policy: 1. Ensure sufficient liquid/safe assets 2. Global coordination of policy 2

5 Expectations Crises: Draghi Put 3

6 Policy Implications 4

7 Policy Implications Does ability to inflate reduce exposure to rollover crises? 4

8 Policy Implications Does ability to inflate reduce exposure to rollover crises? Not necessarily 4

9 Policy Implications Does ability to inflate reduce exposure to rollover crises? Not necessarily Should monetary policy play an active role in debt crises? 4

10 Policy Implications Does ability to inflate reduce exposure to rollover crises? Not necessarily Should monetary policy play an active role in debt crises? Yes 4

11 Policy Implications Does ability to inflate reduce exposure to rollover crises? Not necessarily Should monetary policy play an active role in debt crises? Yes Aguiar, Amador, Farhi and Gopinath (2014) Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Self-fulfilling debt crisis Coordination and Crises in a Monetary Union 4

12 Policy Implications Does ability to inflate reduce exposure to rollover crises? Not necessarily Should monetary policy play an active role in debt crises? Yes Aguiar, Amador, Farhi and Gopinath (2014) Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Self-fulfilling debt crisis Coordination and Crises in a Monetary Union 4

13 Liquidity Crises Safe Asset Supply (trillions of $) Unconventional Policy - Buy toxic assets Increase government debt - Forward guidance weak Unsavory Spillovers - Search for other safe assets Caballero and Farhi (2014) 5

14 Is there still a Liquidity Crisis? 6

15 Is there still a Liquidity Crisis? Stein 2013 (for the U.S) 6

16 Is there still a Liquidity Crisis? Stein 2013 (for the U.S) Rising private-sector debt 6

17 Is there still a Liquidity Crisis? Stein 2013 (for the U.S) Rising private-sector debt Narrowing spreads between risk-free Treasuries and corporate bonds 6

18 Is there still a Liquidity Crisis? Stein 2013 (for the U.S) Rising private-sector debt Narrowing spreads between risk-free Treasuries and corporate bonds growing proportion of corporate debt going to riskier companies 6

19 Is there still a Liquidity Crisis? Stein 2013 (for the U.S) Rising private-sector debt Narrowing spreads between risk-free Treasuries and corporate bonds growing proportion of corporate debt going to riskier companies Caballero and Farhi (2014): High excess returns in stock market 6

20 Is there still a liquidity crisis? Trend Vs Cycle Demographics Slowing productivity 7

21 Global Headwinds 8

22 Take Aways 9

23 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 9

24 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 9

25 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 2. Unconventional policies here to stay 9

26 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 2. Unconventional policies here to stay Create more safe assets 9

27 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 2. Unconventional policies here to stay Create more safe assets 9

28 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 2. Unconventional policies here to stay Create more safe assets 3. Need a globally coordinated plan for the next liquidity crisis which may be sooner than you think. 9

29 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 2. Unconventional policies here to stay Create more safe assets 3. Need a globally coordinated plan for the next liquidity crisis which may be sooner than you think. 9

30 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 2. Unconventional policies here to stay Create more safe assets 3. Need a globally coordinated plan for the next liquidity crisis which may be sooner than you think. 4. Methodology: Rational Expectations 9

31 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 2. Unconventional policies here to stay Create more safe assets 3. Need a globally coordinated plan for the next liquidity crisis which may be sooner than you think. 4. Methodology: Rational Expectations Don t throw out the baby with the bath water. 9

32 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 2. Unconventional policies here to stay Create more safe assets 3. Need a globally coordinated plan for the next liquidity crisis which may be sooner than you think. 4. Methodology: Rational Expectations Don t throw out the baby with the bath water. 9

33 Take Aways 1. Liquidity scarcity has grave consequences 2. Unconventional policies here to stay Create more safe assets 3. Need a globally coordinated plan for the next liquidity crisis which may be sooner than you think. 4. Methodology: Rational Expectations Don t throw out the baby with the bath water. 9