THC Asset-Liability Management (ALM) Insight Issue 5

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1 , WHOLE LOAN SALE TO AGENCIES: A Strategy key words: risk capacity, G-spread, LLPA, yield attribution, fixed rate 1-4 family mortgage, whole loan pricing THC Asset-Liability Management (ALM) Insight Issue family residential mortgage originations have picked up in To facilitate the increase in demand, financial institutions can (1) keep more loans on the balance sheet, (2) sell conforming loans to the Agencies or (3) sell loans as servicing retained or released to other community banks or credit unions. How do you determine your best option? Our Insight #5 explains. In previous issues, I have discussed the use of duration and the liquidity coverage ratio to measure your Risk Capacity, which is then used to enhance profitability by applying the Fund Transfer Pricing (FTP) approach. As FTP shows, the profitability is driven primarily by your loan volume and pricing. My last Insight issue outlines a loan pricing strategy using CECL. This issue continues this discussion by using both on and off-balance sheet strategies. Overview Must you or should you sell loans to Fannie and Freddie? Our bank clients often sell whole loans to Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp). These agencies have fulfilled their role in disintermediating the residential loan market, bringing individual borrowers to the lenders in capital markets via securitization in structuring MBS and CMOs, bypassing the traditional rules of banking. Disintermediation was welcomed by academics in the 90 s believing that allowing borrowers transact directly with the investors in the capital market would provide liquidity and efficiency to all. In the subsequent two decades, disintermediation has become a significant disruptor to the residential loan market. The chart below depicts the significance of government initiatives in disintermediation, the trends of First Lien Purchase finance by alternative channels, and illustrates that the Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSE) and FHA/VA securitization dominates the volume of originations. The private label volume is negligible and the volume retained on balance sheet is only 21% in 2017 Q1. 1

2 In the Post 2009 financial crisis era, regulators are rethinking the implications of disintermediation. They often consider regulating the agencies or adjusting the G-spread, a haircut on the whole loan interest rate paid to the agencies to cover the credit guarantees and servicing cost. But disintermediation has a broader impact on banking. Our bank clients also know the importance of community banking in the lending market; borrowers simply cannot be pigeon holed into conforming loans. Further, disintermediation can also change the culture of banking. With disintermediation, many banks are acting as brokers: completing loan applications subject to agency underwriting guidelines and selling to the Agencies electronically. Brokering loans was favorable prior to the financial crisis when new loan volumes were strong. Today, however, origination volume is low and many banks want to keep loans on the balance sheet. What loans should banks sell to the agencies? Are there better alternatives? Banks need to rethink the benefits of selling conforming loans to the Agencies. With the growing economy, the Whole Loan Sale to Agencies Strategy may offer a solution in the current environment. Whole Loan Sale to Agencies Strategy a Description The agencies in disintermediating the residential mortgage market provide price transparency to investors and borrowers. The basic pricing method is described below. Whole loan pools are sold as TBAs to the capital market to determine the market price. Whole loan prices are based on the market price of investments with a particular coupon rate, taking the G-spread into consideration. Refer to THC Research article CECL ALM Approach (2016) for details. In addition, Fannie Mae charges for the credit component based on a Loan Level Price Adjustment (LLPA) matrix that takes LTV and FICO into consideration. This procedure determines the Fannie Mae (FN) purchase price. The pricing model also considers mark up, mark down, and other factors when determining value. For clarity, this document will not cover those issues other than FICO and LTV considerations. The LLPA table is quite simplistic. For example, the same credit charge on the price, not on the yield, is constant for any maturity over 15 years. Further, the LLPA charge for low FICO does not take other pricing factors into consideration, such as lower FICO score borrowers tend to have a lower prepayment speed. Given this agency pricing process, THC can determine the whole loan rate for a TBA coupon rate and determine the loan values. Our research then compares the Fannie Mae (FN) offer prices to the corresponding THC model prices. THC default-prepayment model has over 30 parameters to capture the default risk, the borrowers prepayment behavior, and their combined effect. Below are the results of the comparison. 2

3 Offer Rates % Where Asset Liability Management and Transactions Meet Comparing Agency Offer Rates and THC Offer Rates for 1-4 Family FRM Conforming Loans THC Rates FN rates Conforming FRM types Implications of the Comparison Results The chart above compares the origination loan rates based on the THC model and the loan rate based on the FN pricing with LLPA. The orange line represents the FN pricing of whole loans over a range of FICO Scores and LTVs for conforming 10, 15 and 30- year loans. The results show that the LLPA credit charge for LTV is significant for the 10-year FRM and decreases gradually with the term of the loan. This result comes from the deficiency of using price adjustment to charge for credit risk exposure instead of using basis points on spreads. Also, the LLPA risk charge remains the same for all maturities and that deficiency comes from the LLPA matrix that assumes a constant credit charge on price for any term over 15 years. By way of comparison, the blue line depicts THC loan pricing following capital market convention. The results show that the THC rates are lower than FN prices for shorter term loans and are higher for longer term loans to compensate for credit risk and higher LTVs. Note that the higher rate results in a lower offer price. In comparing THC prices with Agency prices, the bank should prefer keeping the loans on their balance sheet when the THC price is lower. The results can also assist 3

4 ALCO in determining which conforming loans should be sold to the Agencies based on the borrowers FICO scores and LTV ratios. I know some banks are already using this optimization strategy. For example, banks tend to sell conforming 30-year FRM with relatively high LTV s and low FICO scores. The Whole Loan Sale to Agencies Strategy suggests that banks can determine the relative pricing of loans between the capital market and the agency. Furthermore, using the bifurcating loan strategy, conforming loans can be constructed such that the 1st mortgage can attain the highest profits in selling to the agency. THC Research CECL ALM Approach (2016) and Insight #4 provide a more detailed analysis on the transaction pricing analysis. Why a Strategy for Whole Loan Sale? Access Loan Market Liquidity Banks can gain access to the loan market. Loan markets offer multiple options for banks to optimize whole loan balance sheet strategizes: Selling loans to the agencies Keeping loans on the balance sheet Selling loans in the loan market Originating two loans to a single borrower using any of the above options to maximize earnings. ALM Analysis and Reporting The above optimization depends on multiple factors: the sale price, the impact on the balance sheet risk profile, and member needs. You can use a systematic approach to making these decisions using pretransaction simulations. Impose minimal operational changes Many bank CFOs, CLOs, and legal counsels have worked together in establishing guidelines for selling whole loans to Agencies. To implement, the bank would just have to review the loan analytics when deciding the optimal portfolio of loans to sell to the Agencies or utilize an alternative option, as listed above. This strategy is consistent with the processes many banks have in place already. Flexibility of the Strategy to adapt to banks preferences. Banks can adjust the Strategy in Loan Sale to meet the bank s risk culture. This is discussed in further detail in Insight #1 by simply considering the Agencies as a potential investor, rather than the sole source. Increase Loan Product offerings The 30-year conforming Fixed Rate Mortgage type dominates the residential market in part because of the Agencies pricing of the long dated high credit quality loans. By monitoring the Agencies residential mortgage loan pricing, banks can offer a broader range of loan products where the Agencies prices are less competitive. 4

5 Conclusions Much of banking has changed since the financial crisis. With the increase liquidity in the loan market, enhanced transparency and standardization of risk measures of residential whole loans, banks and credit unions can use multiple channels to off load loans from their balance sheet to increase profitability and manage the balance sheet risk. The Agencies need not be the sole investors of your loans. And you can be flexible to meeting customers borrowing needs. I welcome your comments. Regards, Tom Ho PhD President Thomas Ho Company Ltd Tom.ho@thomasho.com About THC THC is a financial technology company founded by Dr. Thomas Ho, a former professor at New York University, who introduced the first balance sheet valuation (Ho-Lee model 1986) called "option model" by regulators and key rate durations (1992), one of the most popular interest rate risk measures. THC was selected as the sole provider of the risk reporting to all regulated institutions under a federal bank regulator. THC continues to dedicate its research and resources to supporting community banks. THE THC CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS, WITHOUT REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND. TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMISSIBLE UNDER APPLICABLE LAW THC HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS AND IMPLIED, RELATING TO THE THC CONTENT, AND NEITHER THC NOR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES SHALL IN ANY EVENT BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES OF ANY NATURE WHATSOEVER, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, SPECIAL AND PUNITIVE DAMAGES, LOSS OF PROFITS AND TRADING LOSSES, RESULTING FROM ANY PERSON S USE OR RELIANCE UPON, OR INABILITY TO USE, ANY THC CONTENT, EVEN IF THC IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES OR IF SUCH DAMAGES WERE FORESEEABLE 5