MCX Commodities Week-on-week pct change Lead 2.28 Aluminium -2.62 Nickel Zinc Copper Natural Gas 2.54 1.81 0.78 6.15 Crude Silver Gold -0.75-1.42-1.61-4.00-3.00-2.00-1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 Source: Kedia Commodity Commodity d % Change Gold 30408.00-1.61 Silver 38322.00-1.42 Crude 4234.00-0.75 Natural Gas 179.40 6.15 Copper 436.80 0.78 Zinc 213.70 1.81 Nickel 868.90 2.54 Aluminium 130.30-2.62 Lead 156.75 2.28 URL : www.systematixgroup.in Page 1
Bullion Complex Bullion prices fell as the dollar seen supported amid mostly encouraging U.S. economic data which did little to derail the prospect of further U.S. rate hikes in the coming months. China said that North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un had pledged his commitment to denuclearization while U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that Kim looked forward to meeting with him. The U.S. currency was also bolstered after China said that North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un had pledged his commitment to denuclearization while U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that Kim looked forward to meeting with him. Recent worries that protectionist trade policies from the U.S. and China might result in a trade war had boosted prices in recent days, amid fears over the impact on global economic growth. The dollar was little moved by an economic data showing U.S. consumer spending rose only modestly in February and another report showing that jobless claims fell to a 45- year low last week. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose 0.2% last month, lagging behind income growth, which rose 0.4% last month. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve s preferred measure of inflation climbed 1.8% year-over-year, the most in nearly a year. Gold discounts in India narrowed in the week on an improvement in demand for weddings and hopes that retail purchases will rise next month on account of a key festival, while demand in the rest of Asia remained subdued due to higher prices. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $3 an ounce over official domestic prices in the week, down from $7 discount last week, the highest in 6-1/2 months. Jewellers will increase purchases in the coming weeks for next month's Akshaya Tritiya festival, when buying gold is considered auspicious. India's gold imports in February dropped a quarter from a year earlier to 63 tonnes as higher prices curtailed demand in the world's second-biggest consumer of bullion. Hedge funds and money managers cut their net long positions in COMEX gold and copper contracts in the week to March 20, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Speculators also increased their net short position in silver futures and options contracts, CFTC said. Gold speculators cut their net long position by 23,822 contracts to 121,838 contracts, CFTC data showed. Speculators trimmed their net long position in copper by 7,587 contracts to 19,769 contracts, the CFTC data showed. Silver speculators raised their net short position by 18,984 contracts to 35,172 contracts, according to the data. URL : www.systematixgroup.in Page 2
Bullion Complex 30855 Margin 5.00 30929 Margin (Rs.) 154275 30378 Volume 28223 30408 Prev Volume 49131 Previous 30408 Cng in Volume -20908 Value Change -499 Interest 1530 % Change -1.61 Cng in OI -3544 BUY GOLD @ 30400 SL 30050 TGT 30850-31100.MCX 38844 Margin 5.00 39181 Margin (Rs.) 58266 38180 Volume 48377 38322 Prev Volume 70841 Previous 38322 Cng in Volume -22464 Value Change -552 Interest 21768 % Change -1.42 Cng in OI 4053 BUY SILVER @ 38250 SL 37950 TGT 38750-39200.MCX URL : www.systematixgroup.in Page 3
Energy Crude oil dropped renewed focus on growing U.S. output amid a rise in domestic oil rigs but losses were limited as traders anticipated a disruption in Middle East oil supplies amid ongoing tensions in the region. U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels in the last week to 429.95 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. That confounded expectations for a decline of around 0.2 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production rose to a fresh all-time high of 10.43 million barrels per day last week, keeping it above Saudi Arabia's output levels and within reach of Russia, the world's biggest crude producer. Oil has risen since January, on track for its third consecutive quarter of price increases and the longest stretch of quarterly gains since late 2010. OPEC, Russia and some other non-opec producers started cutting output in January 2017, lifting the price of Brent - the benchmark for most of OPEC's exports - by about a quarter since. Sources at OPEC said the group and its allies were likely to keep their deal on cutting output for the rest of 2018 when they meet in June. But rising inventories and production in the United States has capped gains in crude prices. Commercial U.S. stocks rose by 1.6 million barrels in the last week to 429.95 million barrels, while output hit a record 10.43 million bpd, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Natural gas prices rose on forecasts for cooler weather and higher than previously expected heating demand for the next two weeks. Projected average gas demand in the lower 48 U.S. states would rise to 90.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) during the first week of April from a forecast 89.3 bcfd this week. Included in the consumption outlook are U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada by pipeline and to the rest of the world as liquefied natural gas. U.S. sales abroad were expected to average 9.6 bcfd this week, up about 12 percent from a year earlier. Production in the lower 48 states averaged a record high 77.9 bcfd over the past 30 days, according to data. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. fell by 63 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the week ended March 23, disappointing forecasts for a withdrawal of 75 bcf. That compared with a decline of 86 bcf in the preceding week, a fall of 43 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average drop of 46 bcf. Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 1.383 trillion cubic feet (tcf), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That figure is 672 bcf, or around 32.7%, lower than levels at this time a year ago, and 346 bcf, or roughly 20.0%, below the five-year average for this time of year. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to March 27, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raised its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 3,996 contracts to 492,434 during the period. U.S. natural gas speculators cut their net long positions for a second week in a row, betting prices will decline with output near record highs and as heating demand falls with the coming of warmer, spring-like weather. Speculators in four major New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) markets reduced their bullish bets by 22,730 contracts to 211,577 in the week to March 27, the U.S. CFTC said. URL : www.systematixgroup.in Page 4
Energy Charts 4270 Margin 7.76 4305 Margin (Rs.) 33135 4155 Volume 543906 4234 Prev Volume 727242 Previous 4234 Cng in Volume -183336 Value Change -32 Interest 19653 % Change -0.75 Cng in OI -3343 SELL CRUDEOIL @ 4350 SL 4450 TGT 4220-4120.MCX 167.90 Margin 6.80 180.50 Margin (Rs.) 14272 166.70 Volume 128249 179.40 Prev Volume 166333 Previous 179.40 Cng in Volume -38084 Value Change 10.40 Interest 7259 % Change 6.15 Cng in OI -2637 SELL NAT GAS @ 184.00 SL 188.00 TGT 178.00-172.00.MCX URL : www.systematixgroup.in Page 5
Base Metals Nickel prices ended with gains on short covering and amid concerns of a China-US trade war eased. The global nickel market deficit widened to 15,800 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 12,300 tonnes in the previous month, the International Nickel Study Group said. China imported 14,710 mt of refined nickel and its alloy in February, down 44.9% month on month, and down 7.9% year on year, according to China Customs. China s gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow 6.8% in the first quarter of 2018 and 6.9% in the first half of the year, according to a forecast by the National Academy of Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Stainless steel production in China will increase only slowly with environmental measures limiting output while other producers, such as Indonesia, are increasing production which is underpinning nickel demand. Zinc prices gained as support seen after galvanising plants in Hebei province suspended and limited production after an orange-level alert was issued for air pollution. An orange-level alert is the second-highest level in China s four-level air pollution warning system. An orange-level alert indicates that smog has decreased visibility to less than 2,000 metres and heavy industries will be required to cut output to 50%. It is likely that March output across galvanising plants in north China will be affected by the repeated production cuts and suspensions on environmental concerns. China s domestic consumption is affected as another round of cutback has been imposed on galvanising plants in north China. The move was in response to the medium-to-high level of air pollution in the area. Copper prices ended with gains on short covering as support seen amid receding fears about a trade. Metals markets were shaken in the month when U.S. President Donald Trump moved to impose tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing threatened retaliation. But fears of a trade war have eased on hopes that negotiations can bring a compromise. Growth in China s manufacturing sector likely picked up slightly in March as authorities lifted winter industrial pollution restrictions and steel mills cranked up production as construction activity swings back into high gear. Aluminium prices dropped on rising stocks and disappointment over China's winter output curbs. Prices were down around 8 percent so far this year as capacity from top producer China resumes following widespread shutdowns over the winter. China s Ministry of Commerce has proposed to levy a 25% tariff on aluminium scrap imports from the US in a bid to offset the losses brought by the US tariffs. China s winter heating season ended on March 15 after Beijing ordered smelters in 28 of its smoggiest northern cities to cut output by 30 percent from mid-november to mid-march. However, the actual volume cut was below expectations, putting pressure on prices. Meanwhile, ShFE aluminium stockpiles held at exchange warehouses touched record highs at 940,318 tonnes, according to exchange data. The global nickel market will be kept in suspense even longer over the outlook for ore supplies from the Philippines after the country s mining council again pushed back the deadline for completion of a review of 26 mines ordered shut or suspended last year. Former Environment Secretary Gina Lopez ordered the closures as part of a mining crackdown led by President Rodrigo Duterte. The new delay could mean the review won t be ready before August, after an initial pledge to finish it by the end of last year. The miners have appealed the shutdowns and are still operational, Environment Undersecretary Jonas Leones said. The Philippines was the top exporter of nickel ore to China in the past four years after Indonesia imposed a ban on shipments in early 2014. Indonesia has partially eased the ban and its flow of cargoes expanded this year. URL : www.systematixgroup.in Page 6
Base Metals Charts 431.60 Margin 5.69 439.45 Margin (Rs.) 24558 425.00 Volume 170679 436.80 Prev Volume 245856 Previous 436.80 Cng in Volume -75177 Value Change 3.40 Interest 15556 % Change 0.78 Cng in OI -2217 SELL COPPER @ 445.00 SL 452.00 TGT 436.00-428.00.MCX 208.30 Margin 10.33 216.15 Margin (Rs.) 107587 207.65 Volume 69629 213.70 Prev Volume 139268 Previous 213.70 Cng in Volume -69639 Value Change 3.80 Interest 5368 % Change 1.81 Cng in OI 1291 SELL ZINC @ 216.00 SL 220.00 TGT 212.00-207.00.MCX URL : www.systematixgroup.in Page 7
Commodity % Change Volume % Volume OI % Chg Oi OI Status Bullion Gold 30408-1.61 28223-42.56 1530-69.85 Long Liquidation Silver 38322.00-1.42 48377-31.71 21768 22.88 Fresh Selling Energy Crude Oil 4234-0.75 543906-25.21 19653-14.54 Long Liquidation Natural Gas 179.40 6.15 128249-22.90 7259-26.65 Short covering Base metals Copper 436.8 0.78 170679-30.58 15556-12.47 Short covering Zinc 213.70 1.81 69629-50.00 5368 31.67 Fresh Buying Nickel 868.9 2.54 125273-47.87 7987-1.13 Short covering Lead 156.75 2.28 37755-52.91 1869-42.58 Short covering Aluminium 130.3-2.62 23157-42.16 6347 75.33 Fresh Selling Commodity % Change SMA 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 EMA 50 EMA 100 EMA 200 Bullion Gold 30408-1.61 Silver 38322-1.42 Energy Crude Oil 4234-0.8 Natural Gas 179.4 6.2 Base metals Copper 436.80 0.78 Zinc 213.70 1.81 Nickel 868.90 2.54 Lead 156.75 2.28 Aluminium 130.30-2.62 URL : www.systematixgroup.in Page 8
Weekly Market Level for Bullion, Basemetal & Energy Commodity CLOSE GOLD 30408 SILVER 38322 CRUDE 4234 NAT.GAS 179.4 COPPER 436.80 ZINC 213.70 NICKEL 868.90 ALUMINUM 130.30 LEAD 156.75 31317.00 39943.00 4457.00 198.16 457.00 225.85 925.00 135.01 166.00 RESISTANCE 31123.00 39562.00 4381.00 189.33 448.20 221.00 898.00 133.83 162.00 30766.00 38942.00 4307.00 184.36 442.60 217.35 883.40 132.06 160.00 P. POINT 30572 38561 4231 175.5 433.8 212.5 856.9 130.9 156.0 30215.00 37941.00 4157.00 170.56 428.20 208.85 842.40 129.11 154.00 SUPPORT 30021.00 37560.00 4081.00 161.73 419.40 204.00 815.90 127.93 150.00 29664.00 36940.00 4007.00 156.76 413.80 200.35 801.40 126.16 148.00 Trend WEAK WEAK POSITIVE POSITIVE POSITIVE POSITIVE POSITIVE WEAK POSITIVE Weekly Economical Data's Date Time Curr. Data Date Time Curr. 2-Apr All Day EUR French Bank Holiday 5-Apr 11:30am EUR 2-Apr 7:15pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 5-Apr 12:45pm EUR 2-Apr 7:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 5-Apr 1:30pm EUR 2-Apr 7:30pm USD Construction Spending m/m 5-Apr 2:30pm EUR 2-Apr 7:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 5-Apr 2:30pm EUR 3-Apr 11:30am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 5-Apr 5:00pm USD 3-Apr 12:30pm EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 5-Apr 6:00pm USD 3-Apr 12:45pm EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 5-Apr 6:00pm USD 3-Apr 1:30pm EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 5-Apr 8:00pm USD 4-Apr 2:30pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 6-Apr 11:30am EUR 4-Apr 2:30pm EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 6-Apr 12:15pm EUR 4-Apr 2:30pm EUR Unemployment Rate 6-Apr 12:15pm EUR 4-Apr 5:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 6-Apr 1:40pm EUR 4-Apr 7:15pm USD Final Services PMI 6-Apr 6:00pm USD 4-Apr 7:30pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 6-Apr 6:00pm USD 4-Apr 7:30pm USD Factory Orders m/m 6-Apr 6:00pm USD 4-Apr 8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories Data German Factory Orders m/m Spanish Services PMI Final Services PMI PPI m/m Retail Sales m/m Challenger Job Cuts y/y Unemployment Claims Trade Balance Natural Gas Storage German Industrial Production m/m French Gov Budget Balance French Trade Balance Retail PMI Average Hourly Earnings m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate URL : www.systematixgroup.in Page 9