Daily Market Update Report as on Wednesday, October 17, 2018 Gold on MCX dropped as pressure seen after Rupee recovered while Comex Gold edged up Tuesday to mark another finish at their highest since July, but a rally in the U.S. stock market limited the gains for the precious metal. Recent dollar weakness has defied the stronger trend that has persisted in the buck in the year so far, a rise fueled by monetary policy tightening at the Fed. The Fed has hiked interest rates three times this year and may do so a fourth time before year-end, which could provide some resistance to gold bulls because rising rates are likely to juice the dollar and make risk-free government bonds a more attractive investment when compared against bullion. India s Gold Buyers See Prices Surge in the Run-Up to Diwali - Gold buyers in India, the biggest market after China, may give jewelry stores a miss in the run-up to the Diwali festival this year because of a surge in domestic prices to the highest level in more than two years. The most auspicious day of the year to buy gold is Dhanteras, which falls on Nov. 5, two days before the Hindu festival of Diwali. Wearing or gifting of jewelry is thought to bring good fortune during celebrations and weddings. The last quarter of the year is the season of peak demand, with Indians buying almost 240 metric tons on average in the past four years, according to the World Gold Council. Shipments of gold to India, the world's second-biggest buyer of bullion, rose 51.5 percent last month - India's crude oil imports in September touched $10.91 billion, up 33.6 percent from a year ago, Indian government data showed on Monday. While Shipments of gold to India, the world's second-biggest buyer of bullion, rose 51.5 percent last month, the data from India's trade ministry showed. India last week announced tariff hikes on several electronic items and communication devices, in a bid to rein in imports and bolster a weak rupee, but did not levy additional duties on gold to prevent increased smuggling of the precious metal. Hungary's Central Bank Joins Poland to Buy Gold as GLD Expands Again, India 'Robust' Ahead of Diwali - Demand to buy gold from central banks led bullion-market headlines on Tuesday, while the metal held near yesterday's 12-week highs versus a falling US Dollar. World stock markets bounced from their week-long drop, but London's FTSE index held flat as UK Prime Minister Theresa May met with her Cabinet to try and rescue her "Chequers Deal" proposals for next March's Brexit a plan rejected by the EU as well as many of her own Conservative Party MPs. Monday's rise in bullion prices saw investors move to buy gold exposure through ETF trust fund products, led by the third daily growth in 4 sessions for the largest such fund, the SPDR Gold Trust. Modi govt's Sovereign Gold Bonds Scheme makes gold cheaper this festive season - Keeping in mind the enthusiasm of Indians for buying gold, Modi government has launched a Sovereign Gold Bonds that has made gold cheaper this festive season. Investing in gold is much more easy and convenient now. It can be bought directly from the government by giving five installments till February, 2019. The scheme will be open till October 19 and the bonds will be issued on October 23. The price of the Gold Bond is three percent less than the current market rate. SHCIL, designated post offices, and stock exchanges BSE and NSE will be selling the Gold Bond. Date Gold* Silver* 16 Oct 2018 (Tuesday) 31915.00 38615.00 15 Oct 2018 (Monday) 32050.00 38695.00 12 Oct 2018 (Friday) 31710.00 38325.00 The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 16 Oct 2018 (Tuesday) Page 1
Market View Open MCX GOLD 32072.00 High 32160.00 32378.00 Low 31851.00 32269.00 Close 31868.00 32069.00 Value Change -198.00 31760.00 % Change -0.62 31651.00 Margin 5.00 31451.00 Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) 159340 9895.00 13370.00-5.51 Daily Levels Resistance Support Outlook: Gold remained in range amid rise in equities, with investors waiting for minutes from the U.S. Federal Prev Value(Mln) 31686.75 278.00 Reserve s latest policy meeting for any fresh clues on the pace of interest rate hikes. For the day prices a jump towards 31930-31980 will look to sell with a stoploss of above 32100 expecting prices to drop towards 31840-52 Week High 32311.00 APR - FEB 31750 level. 52 Week Low 29500.00 264.00 Spread FEB - DEC Gold on MCX settled down -0.62% at 31868 as pressure seen after Indian Rupee climbed 35 paise to end at nearly two-week high of 73.48 per dollar amid softening crude oil prices and easing concerns over the trade deficit. While Comex Gold prices settled slightly higher ended with gains of $0.70 to settled at $1,231.00 an ounce as the dollar stayed sluggish against some major currencies, ahead of the release of the minutes of the FOMC's September meeting. It appears uncertainty about near term global economic growth and geopolitical worries prompted traders to pick up the yellow metal. Despite rising geopolitical worries after the disappearance of Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the subsequent spat between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, stock markets are moving higher, due largely to some better than expected earnings. Gold is still down about 9% from its April peak, as the dollar had benefited from early signs of the Fed s preference for a higher-for-longer interest rate plan. US President Donald Trump s renewed attacks on the Fed s policy tightening have also highlighted the political pressure on the U.S. central bank. Former Fed Chief Janet Yellen reportedly warned Monday that the president s remarks were essentially damaging to the Fed and to financial stability, adding that she did not believe that it was a desirable thing for a president to comment so explicitly on Fed policy. From physical side in India demand is very low this year as the higher prices are trimming the amount of gold being bought. Technically market is getting support at 31760 and below same could see a test of 31651 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 32069, a move above could see prices testing 32269. Page 2
INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change 1226.86 1231.85 1223.65 1224.55-2.44 0.00 Resistance 1237.92 1234.88 1229.72 1221.52 1218.48 1213.32 Support Outlook: Gold price returns to fluctuate within sideways track after testing 1230.00 again, while stochastic begin to provide positive overlapping signal that we expect to push the price to resume the bullish trend, which its next target located at 1238.31, while its continuation conditions holding above 1208.40. Gold prices settled slightly higher ended with gains of $0.70, or about 0.06%, at $1,231.00 an ounce as the dollar stayed sluggish against some major currencies, ahead of the release of the minutes of the FOMC's September meeting. It appears uncertainty about near term global economic growth and geopolitical worries prompted traders to pick up the yellow metal. Despite rising geopolitical worries after the disappearance of Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the subsequent spat between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, stock markets are moving higher, due largely to some better than expected earnings. Gold is still down about 9% from its April peak, as the dollar had benefited from early signs of the Federal Reserve s preference for a higher-for-longer interest rate plan. But after the Fed increased rates for the third time this year, the recent spike in U.S. bond yields coupled with last week s downturn in U.S. equities (their largest weekly decline since March), have shifted demand from the greenback to gold. US President Donald Trump s renewed attacks on the Fed s policy tightening have also highlighted the political pressure on the U.S. central bank. Former Fed Chief Janet Yellen reportedly warned Monday that the president s remarks were essentially damaging to the Fed and to financial stability, adding that she did not believe that it was a desirable thing for a president to comment so explicitly on Fed policy. From physical side in India demand is very low this year as the higher prices are trimming the amount of gold being bought. Technically market is getting support at 1220.20 and below same could see a test of 1216.80 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1227.8, a move above could see prices testing 1232.40. Page 3
Rupee climbed 35 paise to end at nearly two-week high of 73.48 per dollar amid softening crude oil prices and easing concerns over the trade deficit. Technically market is is getting support at 73.3475 and below same could see a test of 73.2075 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73.84, a move above could see prices testing 74.1925. USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low 73.9000 74.0525 73.5600 73.6225-0.3000-0.41 2.51 1848 2850169 3191827-1.84 210438.97 74.6875 64.6000 Resistance 74.42 74.24 73.93 73.44 73.25 72.95 Support Spread NOV - OCT 0.2975 DEC - NOV 0.2950 Rupee gained on selling by banks across segment along with exporters amid overseas fund inflows into local stocks. Meanwhile, local stocks extended gains as favourable trade data influenced buying from overseas and local fund as deficit fears ebbed. India s retail inflation rose marginally in September, nudged up by food and fuel prices, but short of the Reserve Bank of India s 4 percent medium-term target, strengthening views it could tighten monetary policy in December following unchanged rates last week. The monetary policy committee (MPC) of the RBI left the repo rate at 6.50 percent while reiterating its target of keeping consumer inflation at 4.00 percent in the medium term on a durable basis. In September, consumer prices rose 3.77 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 3.69 percent increase in August, the Statistics Ministry said. Slower inflation in food prices, which make up nearly half of India s consumer price index (CPI), has so far cancelled out rises in imported goods following the weakening rupee. Food inflation rose to 0.51 percent from a year earlier, against 0.29 percent in August. India is likely to overshoot its fiscal deficit target for 2018/19 by a small margin following its decision to cut fuel excise duties, Moody's Investors Service said, describing the move as "credit negative". The government announced cuts in excise duty on gasoline and diesel last week, to soften the impact of sharp rise in global crude oil prices on consumers. Technically now USDINR is getting support at 73.3475 and below same could see a test of 73.2075 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73.84, a move above could see prices testing 74.1925. Page 4
Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold 995 - Ahmedabad 32720.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Ahmedabad 32850.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Bangalore 32710.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Bangalore 32860.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Chennai 32720.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Chennai 32870.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Cochin 32720.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Cochin 32870.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Delhi 32720.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Delhi 32870.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Hyderabad 32670.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Hyderabad 32820.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Jaipur 32725.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Jaipur 32845.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Kolkata 32850.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Mumbai 32855.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Mumbai 32705.00 * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver 999 - Ahmedabad 39640.00 MCX GOLD 04AUG2017 31868.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Bangalore 39730.00 MCX GOLD 05OCT2017 32146.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Chennai 39725.00 MCX GOLD 05DEC2017 32410.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Delhi 39740.00 MCX SILVER 05JUL2017 38864.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Hyderabad 39760.00 MCX SILVER 05SEP2017 39665.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Jaipur 39750.00 MCX SILVER 05DEC2017 40190.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Kolkata 39950.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Mumbai 39860.00 * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 28NOV2018 1224.80 CMDTY Gold London AM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD 29JAN2019 1194.50 CMDTY Gold London PM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV2018 31986.00 CMDTY Silver London FIX 16.45 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 30JAN2019 32064.00 DGCX SILVER 28NOV2018 14.80 Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 26FEB2019 14.73 Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV2018 41189.00 INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO 83.67 MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO 82.00 Page 5
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