Daily Market Update Report as on Thursday, October 04, 2018 Gold gained on worries over Italian finances. EU officials expressed concerns about Italy s financial budget plan and fears of a widening budget deficit drove up safe-haven demand. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hailed a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a historically rare era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices for the foreseeable future. India s gold imports may rise in the fourth quarter as investors seek alternatives to faltering equity markets and a plunging rupee at the same time traditional buying will rise during the festival season, said multiple sources involved in the market. Increased buying by the world s second-biggest gold consumer would support global prices that have traded roughly near $1,200 an ounce since late August, but also widen India s trade deficit and add to pressure on the Indian rupee, which fell to a record low on Wednesday. In the fourth quarter of 2018, gold imports could rise 9 percent from a year ago to 250 tonnes. In the fourth quarter of 2017, India imported 229.6 tonnes of gold, according to metals consultancy GFMS. Sales of gold products by the Perth Mint surged in September to their highest since January 2017, while silver sales more than doubled from August to mark an over two-year peak, boosted by lower bullion prices, the mint said. Sales of gold coins and minted bars surged 61 percent from August to 62,552 ounces last month, the mint said. Gold sales in September rose about 35 percent from a year-ago period. Silver sales soared 151 percent from August to 1,305,600 ounces, their highest since March 2016. From a year earlier, sales advanced about 87 percent. High price of gold, delayed decision on making hallmarking mandatory and shrinking margins have turned the mood sombre ahead of the festive season at Zaveri Bazaar, the largest gold market in Asia. Prices are ruling high, thanks to the depreciating rupee. There is hardly any demand in the market for the yellow metal right now as consumers are holding back their purchase decision. Gold imports in September are expected to be half compared to August, when the country had imported around 90 tonnes of gold. This month imports will be around 40-45 tonnes, said Mukesh Kothari, director, Riddi-Siddhi Bullions. Gold prices have shot up 3.5 per cent in last one month on account of depreciating rupee. The margins in B2B trade in Zaveri Bazaar are also under pressure. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. They also trimmed their net short position in silver contracts and switched to a net long position in copper futures and options, according to the data. Gold speculators raised their net short position by 2,923 lots to 77,313 lots, the largest in three weeks, according to CFTC data. Hedge funds and money managers cut their net short position in silver by 2,648 contracts to 42,409 contracts, CFTC data showed. Date Gold* Silver* 03 Oct 2018 (Wednesday) 31210.00 38490.00 01 Oct 2018 (Monday) 30675.00 37820.00 28 Sep 2018 (Friday) 30450.00 37020.00 The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 03 Oct 2018 (Wednesday) Page 1
Outlook: Gold prices gained buoyed by safe-haven demand as Italy's budget plan sets it on course for a potential clash with the European Union. For the day prices a drop towards 31300-31250 will look to buy with a stoploss of below 30160 expecting prices to jump towards 31480-31620 level. MCX GOLD Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low 31000.00 31480.00 31000.00 31363.00 406.00 1.31 5.00 156815 9818.00 12799.00 6.18 30749.10 31881.00 29500.00 Resistance 32042.00 31761.00 31562.00 31082.00 30801.00 30602.00 Support Spread FEB - DEC 215.00 APR - FEB 487.00 Gold on MCX settled up 1.31% at 31363 on worries over Italian finances. EU officials expressed concerns about Italy s financial budget plan and fears of a widening budget deficit drove up safe-haven demand. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hailed a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a historically rare era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices for the foreseeable future. The Fed s point-person on the theory of how high to raise interest rates said that estimating this neutral level is getting more difficult and less relevant as the U.S. central bank continues tightening policy. Sales of gold products by the Perth Mint surged in September to their highest since January 2017, while silver sales more than doubled from August to mark an over two-year peak, boosted by lower bullion prices, the mint said. Sales of gold coins and minted bars surged 61 percent from August to 62,552 ounces last month, the mint said. Gold sales in September rose about 35 percent from a year-ago period. China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong fell 29 percent in August from the previous month, data showed. Imports via Hong Kong to China, the world's top consumer of the metal, decreased to 31.857 tonnes in August from 44.802 tonnes in July, according to data mailed to Reuters by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Holdings in the world s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.32 percent to 23,721,571.86 ounces. Technically now Gold is getting support at 31082 and below same could see a test of 30801 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31562, a move above could see prices testing 31761. Page 2
INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change 1202.98 1207.78 1196.13 1197.03-5.83 0.00 Resistance 1216.15 1211.96 1204.50 1192.85 1188.66 1181.20 Support Outlook: Gold price keeps declining to start testing the EMA50 that forms intraday support at 1198.00, and the price needs to break this level to confirm the continuation of the bearish bias that its first target located at 1180.00. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions conditioned by holding below 1208.40. Gold remained supported on worries over Italian finances. EU officials expressed concerns about Italy s financial budget plan and fears of a widening budget deficit drove up safe-haven demand. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hailed a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a historically rare era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices for the foreseeable future. The Fed s point-person on the theory of how high to raise interest rates said that estimating this neutral level is getting more difficult and less relevant as the U.S. central bank continues tightening policy. Sales of gold products by the Perth Mint surged in September to their highest since January 2017, while silver sales more than doubled from August to mark an over two-year peak, boosted by lower bullion prices, the mint said. Sales of gold coins and minted bars surged 61 percent from August to 62,552 ounces last month, the mint said. Gold sales in September rose about 35 percent from a year-ago period. China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong fell 29 percent in August from the previous month, data showed. Imports via Hong Kong to China, the world's top consumer of the metal, decreased to 31.857 tonnes in August from 44.802 tonnes in July, according to data mailed to Reuters by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Holdings in the world s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.32 percent to 23,721,571.86 ounces. Technically now Gold is getting support at 1193.80 and below same could see a test of 1187.60 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1206.20, a move above could see prices testing 1212.80. Page 3
Rupee dropped to a record low as a sharp rise in global crude oil prices heaped more pressure on the currency, prompting the central bank to quickly intervene to slow its fall. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.46% to settled at 2796187, now USDINR is getting support at 73.335 and below same could see a test of 72.985 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73.85, a move above could see prices testing 74.015. USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low 73.4400 73.6650 73.1500 73.5875 0.4375 0.60 2.51 1847 3053288 2776085 5.69 224229.76 73.9800 64.6000 Resistance 74.30 73.98 73.79 73.27 72.95 72.76 Support Spread NOV - OCT 0.2875 DEC - NOV 0.2500 Rupee dropped to a record low as a sharp rise in global crude oil prices heaped more pressure on the currency, prompting the central bank to quickly intervene to slow its fall. The partially convertible rupee hit 73.4050 per dollar, an all-time low, and sharply lower than its previous close of 72.91. The Reserve Bank of India stepped into the market to sell dollars, helping the rupee retrace to as much as 73.23 to the dollar. India s central bank is widely expected to raise its policy repo rate at a review on Friday in a bid to slow the rupee s decline and rein in inflationary pressures. Adding to that, the greenback stood tall after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered remarks on monetary policy in the current environment of low inflation and low unemployment in remarks at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. Also, dollar demand strengthened on safe haven bids as concerns on political wrangling over Italy's budget plan rattled market sentiment weighing on the euro. Indian factory activity expanded more quickly in September on strong domestic and export order growth, a business survey showed, a welcome sign of strength as policy makers worry about a sharp drop in the rupee and fallout from global trade frictions. Taken together with evidence of higher inflation pressures from a weak currency and rising oil prices, the survey results may bolster already-firming expectations for an interest rate hike this week from the Reserve Bank of India. Technically now USDINR is getting support at 73.335 and below same could see a test of 72.985 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73.85, a move above could see prices testing 74.015. Page 4
Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold 995 - Ahmedabad 31970.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Ahmedabad 32100.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Bangalore 31970.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Bangalore 32120.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Chennai 31980.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Chennai 32130.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Cochin 31980.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Cochin 32130.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Delhi 31970.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Delhi 32120.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Hyderabad 31940.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Hyderabad 32090.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Jaipur 31965.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Jaipur 32085.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Kolkata 32000.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Mumbai 32130.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Mumbai 31980.00 * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver 999 - Ahmedabad 39225.00 MCX GOLD 04AUG2017 31363.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Bangalore 39560.00 MCX GOLD 05OCT2017 31578.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Chennai 39550.00 MCX GOLD 05DEC2017 32065.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Delhi 39535.00 MCX SILVER 05JUL2017 39092.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Hyderabad 39610.00 MCX SILVER 05SEP2017 39822.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Jaipur 39535.00 MCX SILVER 05DEC2017 40300.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Kolkata 39700.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Mumbai 39655.00 * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 28NOV2018 1200.60 CMDTY Gold London AM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD 29JAN2019 1194.50 CMDTY Gold London PM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV2018 31354.00 CMDTY Silver London FIX 16.45 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 30JAN2019 31531.00 DGCX SILVER 28NOV2018 14.70 Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 26FEB2019 14.72 Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV2018 41189.00 INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO 82.09 MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO 80.23 Page 5
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