UBS Product Day Zurich UBS China Rory Tapner, Chairman and CEO Asia Pacific 1 June 26
Rapid economic growth Q:\GROUP-COMMS\Investor Relations\4 Investor Day\Investor Day 26\Presentations\Final_presos\Product Day\2_Preso_Tapner_NEW_VERSION.ppt China s influence in the global economy will continue to grow Absolute real GDP growth to 215 The world's dominant economies 4 493 8 7 6 USD bn 2 221 % GDP at PPP 5 4 3 2 883 64 535 498 46 389 37 315 186 147 94 82 69 1 US China Japan India UK Germany S korea Brazil Mexico Russia Indonesia Thailand Turkey S Arabia CH 182 187 1913 195 1973 21 215 225 China India Japan United States Big 4 European Source: IMF, UBS Public Policy Source: Virmani, Martin Wolf Averaged annual GDP growth rate at 9.5% for the past 2+ years 1
Changing economic structure China s economic structure is changing from being dominated by the state sector Industrial GDP: SOEs vs. Non-SOEs 1 Fixed asset investment by ownership 16 14 Non-SOE Industrial Output 8 7 Non-State Owned Enterprises 12 6 RMB 2 bn 1 8 % 5 4 6 4 2 SOE Industrial Output 3 2 1 State- Owned Enterprises 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 22 Source: China Statistical Yearbook, 25 Notes: 1 SOE = State-owned enterprises 2 1 RMB=.125USD to being led by the private sector 2
Financial sector challenges Misallocation of financial resources in the corporate sector Structure of financial assets Distribution of bank lending by ownership 8 1 7 % Total Financial Assets 6 5 4 3 2 1 % 8 6 4 2 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Equity Bank Debt Source: Riedel, Jin and Gao, 26, forthcoming; and China Statistical Yearbook, 25 1988-92 1993-97 1998-22 23 Privately-Owned Enterprises Collectively-Owned Enterpries State-Owned Enterprises but the situation is improving 3
Financial sector challenges Lack of investment tools Property Market Index 1 17 16 15 Mutual Fund and Savings Rate as % of GDP (24) 2 7 6 64% 14 5 48% 45% 13 12 11 1 9 % 4 3 2 1 2% 13% 28% 24% 2% 2% 15% 9% 2% 8 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Australia US UK Germany Japan China Overall Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Savings Rate (Gross Savings / GDP) Mutual Funds / GDP Source: CEIC Source: IMF Statistics, Cerulli Associates 1. Year 1997 = 1 2. In local currencies as of end of 24, GDP and Gross Savings seasonally adjusted 4
Development of the equity market In its short 15 year history, China s stock market has experienced a full boom/bust cycle Real GDP Growth vs SHSE and SZSE Price Index P/E Ratios on SHSE and SZSE 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 x 6 5 4 3 2 1 1993 1996 1999 22 25 Shenzhen Exchange Index (left scale) Shanghai Exchange Index (left scale) Real GDP growth rate (right scale) 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 Shenzhen Exchange Shanghai Exchange Source: Note: Riedel, Jin, Gao, 26 forthcoming Shanghai Exchange Index (SHSE) encompasses 824 A-listed securities. Shenzhen Exchange Index (SZSE) encompasses 53 A-listed securities. 5
The next step developing China s financial markets Capital market development is a critical determinant Capital Market Reform - the critical piece of the jigsaw China s Population Age Structure Banking sector restructuring NPL reduction Population (millions) 15 12 9 6 Social security system reform SOE reform Clean up of SOE sector will improve sustainability of banking sector restructuring but will require the development of a social security system. Capital Market Reform 3 195 197 199 21 23 25-14 15-59 6-79 8-plus Source: Jonathan Anderson, UBS, 25 Social security system requires development of capital market of China s ability to meet pension obligations and fully reform the banking sector 6
Domestic market competitive landscape Landscape for domestic banks Banking Securities Fund Management Products & Activities Restricted from participating in the securities market by Glass Steagall Low level of product sophistication but strong distribution and client footprint. Stated interest in WM. A number of retail banks are keen to target mass affluent sector Domestic securities firms are permitted to offer full range of securities services, including: A-share, government & corporate bonds underwriting full secondary market services Asset Management Research Innovation license available to select few Product offering limited by asset class (listed securities) and vehicles (unit trusts) Other asset classes only available to securities companies Industry Trends Trend towards seeking partnerships with foreign banks Major restructuring of industry underway Industry small by global standards but expanding rapidly 7
Domestic market competitive landscape Landscape for foreign banks Q:\GROUP-COMMS\Investor Relations\4 Investor Day\Investor Day 26\Presentations\Final_presos\Product Day\2_Preso_Tapner_NEW_VERSION.ppt Banking Securities Fund Management Foreign ownership limited to 2/25% Foreign ownership capped at 33% of JV Foreign ownership capped at 49% of JV Products & Activities Restrictions on offering foreign currency products lifted under WTO Permitted to offer full range of RMB products by end of 6 under WTO Can offer banking-type WM products Permitted activities limited to underwriting and secondary bond trading. A-share trading is out of scope Regulations governing Asset Management and Research remain unclear Foreign fund managers can only access domestic market through JVs Increasing foreign participation large number of JVs Limited by asset class (listed securities) and vehicle (unit trust) Industry Trends A large number of foreign banks have taken minority stakes in domestic banks No explicit WTO commitments to further opening of market No explicit WTO commitments to further opening of market China is on track to meet WTO commitments, but operating environment remains complex 8
UBS in China UBS is uniquely positioned to capture China s tremendous potential Q:\GROUP-COMMS\Investor Relations\4 Investor Day\Investor Day 26\Presentations\Final_presos\Product Day\2_Preso_Tapner_NEW_VERSION.ppt UBS QFII UBS AG Hong Kong Bridge to ROW* Cross-border activities M&A activities QFII, QDII Bank Branch - Beijing Bank Rep Offices Shanghai & Guangzhou Securities Rep Offices Beijing and Shanghai *Rest of World 9
Multi-entity approach Q:\GROUP-COMMS\Investor Relations\4 Investor Day\Investor Day 26\Presentations\Final_presos\Product Day\2_Preso_Tapner_NEW_VERSION.ppt Multi-entity approach reflects regulatory restrictions & risks Beijing Securities UBS SDIC (China Dragon) UBS HK and ROW UBS Beijing branch Bank of China Structure UBS 2%, IFC 5% Domestic Consortium 42% Beijing Cityrelated 33% UBS 49% SDIC 51% UBS 1% (QFII USD 8m, NPL USD 45m) UBS 1% UBS 1.6% (USD 5m) Commercial co-operation Management control Business activities Fully licensed domestic securities co. Full range of domestic services for IB, WM, AM Focus on FM product origination and real estate International cross-border activity across all UBS businesses QFII QDII Mainly fixed income / FXCCT and WM business Commercial co-operation in IB&S and AM on case by case basis Co-ordination is key to deriving maximum long-term benefits 1
Keys to success UBS has the resources Q:\GROUP-COMMS\Investor Relations\4 Investor Day\Investor Day 26\Presentations\Final_presos\Product Day\2_Preso_Tapner_NEW_VERSION.ppt Strong commitment from Group management Top quality human resources Strong PRC cultural know-how and sensitivity Rigorous implementation of global best practice Well considered risk management systems and the vision needed to succeed in China 11
Beijing Securities restructuring Ground-breaking transaction with Beijing Securities 67% UBS IFC Jianyin COFCO SDIC Beijing AMC NewCo ( UBS Securities ) State Council approval first of its kind/test case in securities market reform process First time a foreign firm has been permitted to directly invest in, and exercise management control over, a fully licensed domestic securities firm Provides UBS with access to licenses to act in the domestic market for corporates, institutions and WM clients Head-start over competitors in building an integrated domestic business platform managed to global standards Expanded presence in China enhances UBS position in existing cross border business lines Unique position for UBS to capitalize on liberalization of the RMB Asset deal insulates legacy risk from Beijing Securities UBS to inject c.4 staff into key management, business and operational positions 6 branches and c.19 core staff from Beijing Securities will also transfer into the new operation UBS consideration RMB1.7bn (USD21m) UBS right to increase as and when law or regulations permit forms a core part of UBS overall China strategy 12
Newco operating structure UBS' management control ensures implementation of the highest international standards Shareholders Meeting Board of Directors (Chairman) Executive Committee Management Committee Front and back office support functions Formal structure Required given existence of other shareholders Shareholders meeting approves overall strategic direction of the business BoD develops strategic vision for the business, reviews management performance and sets targets Ex Com manages business development and runs day to day operations UBS representation on BoD and Ex Com are key Management Committee Core management body 11 member committee 5 members from Ex Com 5 divisional business heads (IBD, EQ, FIRC, WM and AM) 1 CFO/head of financial control Responsible for overseeing the business activities of NewCo and making recommendations to Executive Committee and Board 13
NewCo business overview Integrated business approach to capture cross-selling potential NewCo Investment Banking Division Equities Fixed Income, Rates and Currencies Wealth Management Global Asset Management ECM products DCM products M&A advisory ECM products Institutional brokerage Risk management products Retail execution DCM products Brokerage Proprietary Trading Equities Fixed income Mutual funds Mandates Structured products New asset management products Distribution of existing asset management products 14
Transaction process going forward Timetable currently under review due to regulatory approval process Present Jun 26 Sept 26 Dec 26 T1 T1+ 3 months T1+ 6 months 1 month 3 months Soft launch of all business lines Official public launch 3 months State Council approval received Preliminary CSRC approval expected Final CSRC approval expected securities business license awarded Initial focus on IBD and ECM. WM, FI and AM offerings to ratchet up over the following six month period Move to new UBSstyle premises 15
Summary UBS in China Q:\GROUP-COMMS\Investor Relations\4 Investor Day\Investor Day 26\Presentations\Final_presos\Product Day\2_Preso_Tapner_NEW_VERSION.ppt China remains a complex operating environment for foreign financial institutions. UBS long term commitment to China and our approach to execution planning has enabled us to build a strong understanding with business partners and regulators. We are confident that our multi-entity portfolio in China represents the best operating structure available to any foreign player. It seems unlikely that other foreign firms will be permitted to enter the domestic securities market on our terms in the near future. UBS is well positioned to take full advantage of the continued evolution of China s financial markets. 16
Questions Q:\GROUP-COMMS\Investor Relations\4 Investor Day\Investor Day 26\Presentations\Final_presos\Product Day\2_Preso_Tapner_NEW_VERSION.ppt 17