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Transcription:

Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division

U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office

U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential (Real $213 dollars)

% Change 4. U.S. Potential GDP (Real $29 dollars) 3.5 3. 2.5 Forecast 2. 1.5 1..5. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office

Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 1 5-5 -1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215

Percent Change, Annual Rate 9 Personal Consumption Outlook 6 3-3 -6 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures -9 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215

Real Disposable per Capita Personal Income % Change Year to Year 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

Trillion $ Household Net Worth 9 8 Household Wealth 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215

Household Balance Sheet Trillion $ 1 8 6 4 2 Household Assets Total Assets Nonfinancial Assets Financial Assets 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Trillion $ 2 15 Household Liabilities 1 5 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215

Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ 3,5 Consumer Credit Outstanding 3,2 2,9 2,6 2,3 2, 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Billions $ Residential Real Estate Loans Billions $ 1,2 Consumer Revolving Loans 1,6 9 1,3 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 6 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

Consumer Confidence 15 13 11 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Conference Board Consumer Confidence 9 7 5 3 1-12 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 Real Business Fixed Investment 1-1 -2-3 199 1995 2 25 21 215

Investment Drivers SA, 27 = 1 12 1 8 6 Industrial Production 4 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Percent of Capacity 9 85 8 75 7 65 Capacity Utilization 6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 SAAR $Bil 2 15 1 5 SA 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Corporate Profits 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Inventory-to Sales-Ratio 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215

Sector Indicators SA, 2=1 14 12 ATA Truck Tonnage Index 6 month moving average; thous. tons 1,4 1,2 1 8 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 1, Boxboard Production 8 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 thous, 6-month moving average 6 5 4 Total Rail Carloadings 3 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 $ Bil, 3-month moving average 12 1 8 6 4 2 Monthly Leasing and Finance Index 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ 1, 9 C&I Loans at Commercial Banks 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 small large 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

Domestic Bank Lending Percent Change Year to Year 25 2 C&I Loans at Commercial Banks 15 1 5 small large -5-1 -15-2 -25 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

Business Confidence 7 65 ISM Manufacturing Index 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2$ U.S. Trade -1-3 -5-7 -9 Real Net Exports of Goods and Services 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$) 115 15 95 85 75 U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate 65 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215

Eurozone Growth and Jobs Percent Change, Annual Rate 5.. -5. -1. -15. 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Percent 14. 12. Unemployment Rates 1. 8. 6. 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: Oxford Economics Real GDP Percent Change, Year to Year 4. 3. 2. Inflation: 1.. -1. 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

European Growth Percent Change, Annual Rate 1. Real GDP 8. 6. 4. 2.. -2. -4. France Italy Germany Spain -6. 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: Oxford Economics

United Kingdom Growth and Jobs Percent Change, Annual Rate 5. Real GDP. -5. -1. -15. 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Percent 1 8 Unemployment Rate 6 4 2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: Oxford Economics

Emerging Markets Percent Change, Year to Year 14. 12. Real GDP 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. -2. -4. Mexico China India Brazil South Africa Russia 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: Oxford Economics

Million 15 Total Nonfarm Jobs 14 13 12 11 1 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 Labor Market Million 15 Household Employment 14 13 12 11 1 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average 7 6 5 4 3 Initial Unemployment Claims 2 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Percent Unemployment Rate May 5.5% Unemployment Rate U-6 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215

Labor Market Thousands 3 25 2 15 1 5 SA, percent 68 66 64 Marginally Attached Discouraged Workers 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 Civilian Participation Rate 62 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Thousands 1, Part-time for Economic Reasons 8, 6, 4, 2, 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Median Weeks Unemployed, SA 3 25 2 Duration of Unemployment 15 1 5 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215

Employment-Population Ratio Percent 66 64 62 6 58 56 54 52 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215

Inflation Percent Change Year to Year 7 6 5 4 Consumer Price Index PCE Price Level 3 2 1-1 -2-3 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

Percent 4. Interest Rate Spreads Yield Spread 1-Year Treasury 3 month Treasury 3. 2. 1.. -1. -2. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Percent 4 3 2 1 TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month Treasury 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Percent 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1. Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214

Fed Policy Billions $ 4,5 4, Bank Assets and Liabilities 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan Apr. July Oct. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Excess Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)

Market Trends Housing Thous. of Units, SAAR 25 2 15 1 5 Housing Starts 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 Thous. of Units, SAAR 12 Home Sales 7 New Home Sales (left axis) Existing Home Sales (right axis) 2 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 75 65 55 45 35 25 Sales Price, Thous. $ 3 25 2 Median Home Prices 15 Existing Homes 1 New Homes 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 Housing Affordability Index 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214

Housing Market Trends Millions 125 12 115 11 15 Household Formation 1 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Thous. of Units, SAAR 7 5 3 New Homes (left axis) Existing Homes (right axis) Housing Inventory 1 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 45 35 25 15 3 25 2 Foreclosures: All Foreclosures: Subprime Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates 15 Delinquencies: Prime 1 Delinquencies: 5 Subprime 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 Percent 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Home Mortgages with Negative Equity 21 211 212 213 214 215

Thousands of Barrels per Day 9, Oil 7, 5, US Crude Oil Production 3, 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 $/ Barrel 16 14 12 Spot Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate 1 8 6 4 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

Trillion Cubic Feet 3 27 24 Natural Gas US Natural Gas Production 21 18 15 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 $/ Barrel 14 Natural Gas Prices: Henry Hub 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215

CBO s Baseline Deficit (January 215) Billions $ 5 Budget Deficit -5-1 -15-2 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 Percent of GDP 5 Deficit to GDP -5-1 -15 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225

Billions $ 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Percent of GDP 1 8 6 4 2 Government Baseline Outside Debt (January 215) Debt 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 Debt to GDP 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225

Government Gross Debt (January 215) Billions $ 3, 25, 2, Gross Debt 15, 1, 5, 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 12% 1% Gross Debt to GDP 8% 6% 4% 2% % 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22

Government Revenues and Outlays ( percent of GDP) 3 25 Forecast 2 15 1 Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP) 5 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 Source: CBO Baseline (January 215)

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