BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

Similar documents
December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW

May 2015 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW

JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting. 13 May 2015

JPM US Equity Income Fund

CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW

2Q Commencement: A Guide to the Markets. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, JPMorgan Funds

SHAMBLING FORWARD. 02/13/2014 WORLD POPULATION 2 WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE

As of December 31, Guide to the Markets

Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division

Solutions Conference Year End Global Economy & World Political Outlook Leon C. LaBrecque, JD, CPA, CFP, CFA RAIN IN EUROPE?

Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook

There has been considerable discussion of the possibility

With the tax filing season in full swing, these summary

The Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal

The relatively slow growth of employment has

Economic and Housing Outlook

Sharp declines in home prices, followed by a financial

The First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond

House prices in the United States were 14.1 percent

Real GDP Growth Compounded annual rates of change. Consumer Price Index Percent change

Economic and Market Outlook

ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION

The U.S. Economic Outlook

Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

MARKET INSIGHTS. Guide to the Markets. U.S. 2Q 2016 As of March 31, 2016

MARKET INSIGHTS. Guide to the Markets. U.S. 4Q 2015 As of September 30, 2015

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum

MARKET INSIGHTS. Guide to the Markets. U.S. 1Q 2018 As of December 31, 2017

2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018

U.S. Economic Update and Outlook. Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 2013

MARKET INSIGHTS. Guide to the Markets. U.S. 3Q 2018 As of June 30, 2018

Welcome to the Guide to the Markets for the first quarter of 2018.

MARKET INSIGHTS. Guide to the Markets. U.S. 1Q 2017 As of December 31, 2016

THE SKINNY. CG s Market Commentary

Damn the End of QE! Buy the Dollar and Treasurys!

Economic and Market Outlook

ECONOMIC & REVENUE UPDATE

The chorus from Travis s 1947 song about the

In 2010, the first of the Baby Boom generation will

MARKET INSIGHTS. Guide to the Markets. U.S. 2Q 2017 As of March 31, 2017

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment

On October 4, 2006, President Bush signed the

Modest Economic Growth and Falling GDP Gap

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Executive Cotton Update U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators & the Cotton Supply Chain

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

MARKET INSIGHTS. Guide to the Markets. U.S. 2Q 2018 As of March 31, 2018

Michigan Economic Update

Individual households and firms, as well as local, state,

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast November 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President

The U.S. Economic Outlook

2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook

How to Earn Double-Digit Returns While Avoiding Major Down Markets in a Safety-First Approach

Economic and Housing Outlook

The Economic & Financial Outlook

Chart 1. U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom

Marquette Associates Market Environment

Economic Conditions and Outlook for the U.S. and Greater Kansas City Area

Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks

THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR FRANCE AND RELATED COMPOSITE ECONOMIC INDEXES FOR JANUARY

Vermont Tax Seminar. Comments on the 2017 Economic Outlook Presentation to the. December 8, 2016

National Economic Indicators. May 7, 2018

Since the financial crisis began in mid-2007, media

NationalEconomicTrends

2008 Economic and Market Outlook

Economic Outlook. Presented to IPMA Executive Seminar. Steve Lerch Chief Economist & Executive Director. September 25, 2012 Chelan, Washington

Recent Recent Developments 0

Global Themes and Risks

THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR FRANCE AND RELATED COMPOSITE ECONOMIC INDEXES FOR FEBRUARY

United States. Gross Domestic Product Percent change over year-ago level. Industrial Production Index, 2010=100. Unemployment Rate Percent

ctrends Nominal Vs. Real Wage Growth Growth of Wages Percent Change From Year Ago August 1997

In the past three decades, the share of foreign-born

NationalEconomicTrends

Weekly Macroeconomic Review

AFTERSHOCKS. Benjamin Tal, Managing Director, Deputy-Chief Economist CIBC World Markets Inc. Will Investment in Renewable Energy Follow Oil Prices?

The effect that housing has on the economy has received

Data current as of: April 4, % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 250, , , ,000 50, , , , , ,000

U.S. and Regional Economic Conditions and Outlook

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World

Snapshot of SA Economy

Economic Indicators December 2017

The Economic & Financial Outlook

The Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over

Economic Update and Outlook

Quarterly Update. Jessica Burbrink, CFP, CTFA. Clayton Bill, CFA. Kathy Clark. Andrew Heck, JD, CTFA, CFIRS

The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects

Aug-12. Oct-13. Dec-14. Feb-16

Many analysts have argued that a housing boom preceded

Global House View: Market Outlook

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN


RBC Global Asset Management Daniel E. Chornous, CFA Chief Investment Officer RBC Global Asset Management

FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. AEST, THURSDAY, APRIL 30, 2009

The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook

Transcription:

BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC P.O. Box 1206 241 3 rd Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54495-1206 715-422-0700 buenavistainv@buenavistainv.com

BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 THE STOCK MARKET

Disclosures The strategic investment tools listed below are used by Buena Vista Investment Management to assist in its investment process. The tools are primarily used in the formulation of asset allocation decisions relating to the allocation between equity investments and risk free money market investments. The tools are focused on intermediate to long term market trends and do not forecast shortterm movements. Do not rely on these tools to make investment decisions. December 24, 2015 Leuthold Major Trend Index Neutral 0.89 (as of Dec3mber 18th) The index status is considered to be positive, neutral or negative based on its underlying components. A reading above 1.05 is considered positive, between 0.95 and 1.05 is considered neutral and a reading below 0.95 is negative. The Leuthold Major Trend Index is considered by Buena Vista Investment Management to be a leading indicator. Investech Negative Leadership Composite Negative Selling Vacuum +0 Bearish Distribution 100 The Composite has two components: 1) Selling Vacuum (Bullish) A reading of +20 is considered very bullish and may signal the start of a new bull market. Readings of above zero signals an ongoing bullish stock environment; and 2) Distribution (Bearish) A reading below zero is considered to be bearish. The Investech Negative Leadership Composite is considered by Buena Vista Investment Management to be a leading indicator. Buena Vista Conservative Buy/Sell Discipline Negative 5 S&P POINTS / 0% To Sell The Buena Vista Conservative Buy/Sell Discipline utilizes the 300 day moving average of the S&P 500 stock index as a trigger for longterm buy and sell decisions. The discipline is either Bullish or Bearish depending on the relationship of the moving average and the index. The Buena Vista Conservative Buy/Sell Discipline is considered by Buena Vista Investment Management to be a lagging indicator.

HISTORIC DATA FOR STRATEGIC INVESTMENT TOOLS BUENA VISTA LEUTHOLD INVESTECH CONSERVATIVE MAJOR TREND NEGATIVE LEADERSHIP BUY/SELL DATE INDEX COMPOSITE DISCIPLINE December 24, 2015 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 5 points / 0% To Sell December 18, 2015 0.89 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% To Sell December 11, 2015 0.88 Negative +0/ 97 Negative 0 points / 0% To Sell December 4, 2015 0.98 Neutral +0/ 71 Negative 40 points / 1.91% To Sell November 27, 2015 0.98 Neutral +0/ 78 Negative 42 points / 2.00% To Sell November 20, 2015 0.96 Neutral +0/ 80 Negative 42 points / 2.01% To Sell November 13, 2015 0.96 Neutral +0/ 75 Negative 0 points / 0% To Sell November 6, 2015 0.97 Neutral +0/ 75 Negative 54 points / 2.57% To Sell October 30, 2015 0.96 Neutral +0/ 92 Negative 36 points / 1.73% To Sell October 23, 2015 0.91 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 34 points / 1.63% To Sell October 16, 2015 0.80 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative October 9, 2015 0.82 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative October 2, 2015 0.72 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative September 25, 2015 0.72 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative September 18, 2015 0.74 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative September 11, 2015 0.74 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative September 4, 2015 0.76 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative August 28, 2015 0.68 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative August 21, 2015 0.67 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 0 points / 0% Negative August 14, 2015 0.88 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 53 points / 2.53% To Sell August 7, 2015 0.90 Negative +0/ 100 Negative 42 points / 2.02% To Sell July 31, 2015 0.96 Neutral +0/ 100 Negative 71 points / 3.37% To Sell July 24, 2015 0.95 Neutral +1/ 82 Negative 51 points / 2.45% To Sell July 17, 2015 0.98 Neutral +1/ 44 Negative 97 points / 4.57% To Sell July 10, 2015 1.00 Neutral +4/ 46 Negative 55 points / 2.64% To Sell July 2, 2015 1.01 Neutral +6/ 23 Negative 58 points / 2.79% To Sell

S&P 500 valuation measures GTM U.S. 5 Equities S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E ratio 26x 24x 22x Valuation measure Description Latest 25-year avg.* Std. dev. over/undervalued P/E Forward P/E 16.4x 15.7x 0.2 CAPE Shiller s P/E 27.2 25.5 0.3 Div. Yield Dividend yield 2.0% 2.1% 0.1 P/B Price to book 2.9 2.9 0.0 P/CF Price to cash flow 11.7 11.4 0.1 20x +1 Std. dev.: 19.0x EY Spread EY minus Baa yield 1.3% -0.6% -1.0 18x Current: 16.4x 16x Average: 15.7x 14x 12x -1 Std. dev.: 12.4x 10x 8x '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 5 Source: FactSet, FRB, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Shiller s P/E uses trailing 10-years of inflation adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend Yield is calculated as the trailing 12-month average dividend divided by price. Price to Book Ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price to Cash Flow is price divided by NTM cash flow. EY Minus Baa Yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price) minus the Moody s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield. Std. dev. over/undervalued is calculated using the average and standard deviation over 25-years for each measure. *P/CF is a 20-year avg. due to cash flow data availability. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015.

Corporate profits and leverage GTM U.S. 7 Equities S&P 500 earnings per share Index quarterly operating earnings $34 S&P consensus analyst estimates $29 $24 1Q15*: $25.81 Profit margins 11% S&P 500 operating EPS % of sales per share** 10% After-tax, adj. corp. profits, % of GDP 9% 8% 7% 6% 1Q15*: 9.4% 1Q15: 8.0% 5% $19 $14 $9 4% '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 Total leverage S&P 500, ratio of total debt to total equity, quarterly 220% 200% 180% $4 -$1 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Average: 161% '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: BEA, Compustat, FactSet, Standard & Poor s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. *Most recently available data is 1Q15 which is a Standard & Poor s estimate. Future earnings estimates are Standard & Poor s consensus analyst expectations. **S&P 500 Operating EPS % of Sales per Share fell to 0% in 4Q2008 and is adjusted on the chart. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. 2Q15: 105% 7

BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 EMPLOYMENT

Unemployment and wages GTM U.S. 24 Civilian unemployment rate and year-over-year growth in wages of production and non-supervisory workers Seasonally adjusted, percent 12% Economy 10% 8% Unemployment Oct. 2009: 10.0% 6% 50-yr. average: 6.1% 4% 50-yr. average: 4.3% Jun. 2015: 5.3% 2% 0% Wage growth '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 Jun. 2015: 1.9% Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. 24

Labor market perspectives GTM U.S. 25 Employment Total private payroll Total job gain/loss, thousands 600 400 Labor force participation rate 68% 67% 66% Economy 200 0-200 8.8mm jobs lost 12.4mm jobs gained 65% 64% 63% Jun. 2015: 62.6% 62% '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Net job creation since Feb. 2010 Millions of jobs -400 4 3 3.7 3.2-600 2 2.5 2.3-800 1 0 1.0-0.6-1,000 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-1 Info. Fin & Bus. Svcs. Mfg. Trade & Trans. Leisure, Hospt. & Other Svcs. Edu. & Health Svcs. Mining & Construct. Gov't Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. 25

BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 ENERGY & THE DOLLAR

Energy: Supply, demand and prices GTM U.S. 29 Change in production and consumption of oil Production, consumption and inventories, million barrels per day Price of oil Brent crude, nominal prices, USD/barrel Production 2013 2014 2015* 2016* Growth since 2013 $160 $140 Jun. 2008: $140.91 Economy U.S. 12.4 14.0 15.0 15.1 21.8% OPEC 36.4 36.4 37.1 37.2 2.0% Other 42.2 42.8 43.2 43.3 2.6% Global 90.9 93.2 95.2 95.5 5.0% $120 $100 Jun. 2014: $113.50 Consumption $80 U.S. 19.0 19.0 19.4 19.5 2.7% Europe 14.3 14.1 14.2 14.3 0.3% $60 Japan 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.1-9.9% China 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.3 10.1% Other 43.1 43.9 44.5 45.4 5.3% Global 91.2 92.1 93.3 94.6 3.8% $40 $20 Dec. 2008: $39.53 Jan. 2015: $48.40 Jun. 2015: $61.18 Inventory Change -0.3 1.1 1.9 0.8 Source: EIA, IMF, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Brent crude are monthly averages in USD using global spot ICE prices. *Forecasts are from the April 2015 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and start in 2015. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. $0 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 29

$USD us DoI<Ir ndex _ CM h Settle (EOO) ICE High ""."" ", ", "." " '"," "'l' StockO,",.<om,~ ' M,ro ' M,. Ic linton Administration I IBUSh Administration I '" '" Db.m. Administration 1015 ' 00 IReg.n Administration I 03 (14 OIl OIl 07 OQ 10 11 12 13 14 10

Trade and the U.S. dollar GTM U.S. 28 Economy Trade balance Current account balance, % of GDP -7% -6% -5% 4Q05: -6.3% U.S. Dollar Index Monthly avg. of major currencies nominal trade-weighted index 115 110 105 100-4% 95 Jun. 2015: 89.7-3% 1Q15: -2.6% 90 85 Mar. 2009: 84.0-2% 80 75-1% 0% '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 70 65 Mar. 2008: 70.3 Aug. 2011: 69.0 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: BEA, Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Currencies in the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Major Currencies Index are: British Pound, Euro, Swedish Kroner, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. 28

BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 INTEREST RATES

0,1"'" 00' $UST2Y 2_ Yo", US TroMC<Y YieO:i (EOO) '"OX 24S.,_201O - $UST2Y (o. H,) 0,6]0 0,4100 Open OU O High OU O Low OU O Close OU O 0,'200 0,''''',-. StockO' '''.<om Chg _0.= (_4.20") ~ - ---lo.s70 0,8200 '-SW O.S20 0= ono 0.7300 0.7W,.= ono 0.700 OU O 0= 0."20 0= 0.070 0= 0.020 0= 0.470 O ~ 0.420 O ~ 0.370 0.3300 0.3200 0.3W 0.320 0,2000 0.= 0= 0.270 0.2W 0,2100 0,2200 0.= 0.220 0= 0.170

BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 ECONOMIC GROWTH

Economic growth and the composition of GDP GTM U.S. 18 Real GDP Year-over-year % change 10% Real GDP 1Q15 Components of GDP 1Q15 nominal GDP, USD trillions $19 3.3% Housing 8% YoY % chg: 2.9% QoQ % chg: -0.2% $17 13.4% Investment ex-housing Economy 6% 4% Average: 2.9% $15 $13 $11 17.9% Gov t spending 2% $9 0% -2% Expansion average: 2.2% $7 $5 68.5% Consumption $3-4% $1-6% '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 -$1-3.2% Net exports Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Quarter over quarter percent changes are at an annualized rate. Average represents the annualized growth rate for the full period. Expansion average refers to the period starting in the second quarter of 2009. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. 18

Consumer finances GTM U.S. 19 Economy Consumer balance sheet 1Q15, trillions of dollars outstanding, not seasonally adjusted $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 Total Assets: $99.1tn Homes: 24% Other tangible: 6% Deposits: 9% 3Q- 07 Peak: $82.0tn 1Q- 09 Low: $69.1tn Household debt service ratio Debt payments as % of disposable personal income, SA 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 1Q80: 10.6% 4Q07: 13.2% 2Q15**: 9.9% 9% '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 $50 $40 $30 $20 Pension funds: 21% Other financial assets: 39% Other non-revolving: 1% Revolving*: 6% Auto loans: 7% Other liabilities: 9% Student debt: 10% Total liabilities: $14.2tn Household net worth Not seasonally adjusted, USD billions $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 2Q07: $67,866 2Q15**: $85,772 $10 $0 Mortgages: 68% $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: BEA, FactSet, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data include households and nonprofit organizations.sa seasonally adjusted. *Revolving includes credit cards. **1Q15 household debt service ratio and 1Q15 household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. 19

Consumer confidence and the stock market GTM U.S. 31 Consumer Sentiment Index University of Michigan Economy 130 120 110 100 90 Aug. 1972-6.2% Impact on Consumer Sentiment from a 10% y-o-y rise in gasoline prices 10% y-o-y rise in home prices 10% y-o-y rise in the S&P 500 1% y-o-y rise in the unemployment rate May 1977 +1.2% Mar. 1984 +13.5% -1.4 pts +1.8 +2.8-4.4 Jan. 2000-2.0% Jan. 2004 +4.4% Jan. 2007-4.2% Jun. 2015: 96.1 80 Average: 84.9 70 Mar. 2003 +32.8% Oct. 2005 +14.2% 60 50 Feb. 1975 +22.2% May 1980 +19.2% Oct. 1990 +29.1% Sentiment cycle low and subsequent 12-month S&P 500 Index return Nov. 2008 +22.3% Aug. 2011 +15.4% 40 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Standard & Poor s, University of Michigan, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Peak is defined as the highest index value before a series of lower lows, while a trough is defined as the lowest index value before a series of higher highs. Subsequent 12-month S&P 500 returns are price returns only, which excludes dividends. Impact on consumer sentiment is based on a multivariate monthly regression between 1/31/2000 5/31/2015. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. 31

Cyclical sectors GTM U.S. 20 Economy Light vehicle sales Millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 Average: 15.3 Jun. 2015: 17.2 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Manufacturing and trade inventories Days of sales, seasonally adjusted 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 Apr. 2015: 41.4 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Housing starts Thousands, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2,400 2,000 1,600 Real capital goods orders Non-defense capital goods orders ex. aircraft, USD billions, SA $70 $65 $60 1,200 800 400 Average: 1,337 May 2015: 1,036 0 $40 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Source: BEA, Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. SA seasonally adjusted. Capital goods orders deflated using the producer price index for capital goods with a base year of 2004. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. $55 $50 $45 Average: 56.5 May 2015: 57.6 20

Residential real estate GTM U.S. 21 Home prices Indexed to 100, seasonally adjusted 115 Housing Affordability Index Avg. mortgage payment as a % of household income 40% Economy 110 105 100 Case Shiller 20-city FHFA purchase only Average existing home 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Average: 19.7% May 2015: 12.2% 95 90 85 10% '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 Lending standards for approved mortgage loans Average FICO score based on origination date Jun. 2015: 760 750 740 80 720 75 700 70 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 680 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Sources: (Left) National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Monthly mortgage payment assumes the prevailing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates and average new home prices excluding a 20% down payment. (Bottom Right) McDash, J.P. Morgan Securitized Product Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. 21

Federal finances GTM U.S. 23 The 2015 federal budget CBO Baseline forecast, USD trillions $4.0 Federal budget surplus/deficit % of GDP, 1990 2025, 2015 CBO Baseline -12% Forecast Economy $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 Total Spending: $3.7tn Other $619bn (17%) Net Int.: $229bn (6%) Non-defense disc.: $536bn (15%) Defense: $586bn (16%) Social Security: $738bn (20%) Medicare & Medicaid: $969bn (26%) Borrowing: $486bn (13%) Other: $302bn (8%) Social insurance: $1,056bn (29%) Corp.: $328bn (9%) Income: $1,506bn (41%) -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 2015: -2.7% '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 Federal net debt (accumulated deficits) % of GDP, 1940 2025, 2015 CBO Baseline, end of fiscal year 2015: 74.2% Forecast 2025: 77.1% $0.0 Total Government Spending Sources of Financing 20% '40 '48 '56 '64 '72 '80 '88 '96 '04 '12 '20 Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, CBO, St. Louis Fed, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 2015 Federal Budget is based on the CBO s March 2015 Baseline Budget Forecast. Other spending includes, but is not limited to, health insurance subsidies, income security, and federal civilian and military retirement. Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30). 2015 numbers are CBO estimates as of March 2015. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2015. 23

Voya Global Perspectives World Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Global economic growth has more than doubled in the last 11 years driven by growth in emerging and developing economies. Fundamentals % of World GDP 2003 $38.1 Trillion 2008 $56.8Trillion 2014 $77.6Trillion Advanced Economies 80% 72% 61% Emerging and Developing Economies 20% 28% 39% Advanced economies: Comprised of 36 countries. Developing economies: Comprised of 153 countries. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) as of 2014 4

Voya Global Perspectives Global Consumer Global household consumption of goods and services has increased 100% in the last decade but 95% of consumers reside outside the U.S. China is now the largest auto market in the world. Fundamentals Global Retail Sales Y/Y % Change Global Automobile Sales (Monthly Level Millions Annualized) 15 10 26 24 U.S. Recession China Auto Sales 5 0 Great Britain Germany Greece Brazil 22 20 18-5 16-10 Japan 14 12-15 10 U.S. Auto Sales -20 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 8 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Global Retail Sales: Brazil, Germany and Japan as of 04/30/15; Greece as of 03/31/15; Great Britain as of 04/30/15. Global Automobile Sales: China auto as of 05/29/15; U.S. auto sales as of 05/29/15. Source: The World Bank, OICA, Factset 12

Voya Global Perspectives Developing Markets Drive Growth World GDP accelerated in the last decade, supported by the largest emerging markets, which now outproduce the largest developed economies, where generally higher debt levels hinder economic growth. Fundamentals World GDP 100 Gross Government Debt to GDP 140 80 120 G7 $ Trillions 60 40 % of GDP 100 80 All Advanced Economies 60 20 40 Emerging and Developing Economies 0 1992 1998 2004 2010 Data as of 12/31/14. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database 2014 20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note: The G7 countries are comprised of the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan 14