CURRENCY DAILY 6-4-218 Market \` commentary Indian rupee recovered from previous session s losses and closed higher by 18paise at 64.97 against the U.S. dollar, after the RBI lowered its inflation forecast and revised up its growth outlook. The rupee was supported by positive sentiments from the beginning, as easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China and a rally in global equities. The 1-year benchmark bond yield tumbled sharply to 7.13% from its previous close of 7.29%. The Reserve Bank concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting today, by leaving the key benchmark rate unchanged at 6% for the fourth consecutive time since August last year. While, the policy outcome was in line with expectation, RBI outlined a higher growth rate of 7.4% in the current financial year and lower inflationary forecast at 4.7-5.1% for the first half of the fiscal. In the cross currency trade, the local unit recouped against the pound to close at 91.25 from 91.48 and pulled back against the euro to close at 79.68 as compared to 8.3 in the previous session. In forward market, premium for dollar fell sharply owing to sustained receiving from exporters. The 6-month forward premium payable in August declined to 13.5-15.5paise from 18-11paise, while the far-forward February 219 contract also dropped sharply to 223-225paise from 23-232paise in the previous session. Domestic equities rallied nearly 2% yesterday, tracking global equity markets that recovered after fears of a Sino-U.S. trade war eased, with metal stocks such as Hindalco Industries Ltd and banks such as ICICI Bank Ltd among top gainers. The dollar rose to a nearly 2-week high against a basket of major currencies, shrugging off softer economic data as diminishing trade-war fears supported sentiment. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose 24, to a seasonally adjusted 242, for the week ended March 3, while the trade deficit widened to $57.6bn in February from $56.7bn the prior month. FOREX synopsis Supporting sentiment on the dollar was easing fears over a U.S.-China trade war after Larry Kudlow, director of the White House Futures High Low Close %Chg OI %Chg Spot Close Prev close %Chg National Economic Council, suggested that the U.S. was willing to strike a deal with Beijing. NSE Rupee 64.9625 65.1475 (.28) INR-Dollar (Apr) 65.28 65.7 65.125 (.34) 6.83 Euro 1.224 1.2278 (.31) INR-Dollar (May) 65.5125 65.3275 65.3575 (.34) 3.17 British Pound 1.43 1.479 (.54) Japanese Yen 17.39 16.78.57 INR-Euro (Apr) 8.175 79.95 8.25 (.48) (6.1) Australian($).7684.7716 (.41) INR-Euro (May) 8.78 8.42 8.485 (.46) 1.97 Swiss Franc.9635.968.28 Canadian($) 1.275 1.277 (.16) INR-Pound (Apr) 91.88 91.5125 91.59 (.24) (2.52) Dollar Index 9.46 9.142.35 INR-Pound (May) 92.335 91.9575 92.1 (.28) (1.97) Global Equities INR-Yen (Apr) 61.14 6.8775 6.91 (1.14) (7.5) Maykets Close Prev close %Chg INR-Yen (May) 61.44 61.2175 61.2475 (1.8) (24.27) Asia Sensex 33,596.8 33,19.7 1.75 Forward Rates Nifty 1,325.15 1,128.4 1.94 Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg Nikkie 21,645.42 21,319.55 1.53 1-month 65.21 65.39 (.28) Hang Seng 29,518.69 29,518.69. 3-month 65.45 65.62 (.26) Shanghai 3,131.11 3,131.11. RBI Reference rate Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg America Straits Times 3,45.65 3,339.7 1.97 Dollar 65.61 65.232.6 Dow Jones 24,55.22 24,264.3.99 Euro 79.7767 79.79 (.2) Nasdaq 7,76.55 7,42.11.49 Pound 91.55 91.4941.1 1 Yen 6.78 61 (.36) Europe CAC 5,276.67 5,141.8 2.62 Commodities DAX 12,35.19 11,957.9 2.9 Close Prev close %Chg FTSE 7,199.5 7,34.1 2.35 Spot Gold 3,476. 3,858. (1.24) Spot Silver 38,226. 38,212..4 FII's Flow Equity (in Rs cr.) Debt (in Rs cr.) Net Crude oil 4,115. 4,111..1 As on Apr. 4 (474.98) (72.6) (1177.) Copper 439.95 433.65 1.45 As on Apr. 5 291.68 172.72 1994.4
Pivot Levels Futures R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 INR-Dollar (Apr) 65.2674 65.275 65.1519 65.125 65.532 64.9975 64.9377 INR-Dollar (May) 65.527 65.45 65.41 65.3575 65.314 65.265 65.2123 INR-Euro (Apr) 8.1791 8.115 8.554 8.25 79.9496 79.89 79.8259 INR-Euro (May) 8.7676 8.665 8.5696 8.485 8.44 8.35 8.224 INR-Pound (Apr) 91.8785 91.7738 91.6764 91.59 91.536 91.463 91.315 INR-Pound (May) 92.363 92.1988 92.987 92.1 91.9213 91.8213 91.7137 INR-Yen (Apr) 61.1161 61.413 6.9717 6.91 6.8483 6.7788 6.739 INR-Yen (May) 61.4222 61.3588 61.2998 61.2475 61.1952 61.1363 61.728 Spot R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Indian Rupee 65.158 65.538 65.54 64.9625 64.9196 64.8713 64.8192 Euro 1.2297 1.2276 1.2257 1.224 1.2223 1.224 1.2183 British Pound 1.416 1.469 1.434 1.43 1.3972 1.3938 1.39 Japanese Yen 18.23 17.78 17.5733 17.39 17.267 17. 16.7777 Australian($).9668.9656.9645.9635.9625.9614.962 Canadian($).7726.7711.7696.7684.7672.7658.7642 Swiss Franc 1.2799 1.2781 1.2765 1.275 1.2735 1.2719 1.271 Dollar Index 9.876 9.7215 9.5829 9.46 9.3371 9.1985 9.494 A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the currency. Technical Alerts USD-INR - April The currency pair holds support at 64.75-64.9, while on the upside resistance is seen at 65.35-65.5. Indian Rupee s premium in Futures market Contract Spot Futures Premium 1-month 64.9625 65.125.14 2-month 64.9625 65.3575.395 3-month 64.9625 65.5625.6 4-month 64.9625 65.74.7775 5-month 64.9625 65.935.9725 6-month 64.9625 66.1125 1.15
USD-INR options OI analysis Near month i.e. April 18 Call OI 16 14 Put OI 25 2 Call OI chg. Put OI chg. 12 1 15 8 1 6 4 5 2-5 Near +1 i.e. May 5 45 4 35 3 Call OI Put OI 16 14 12 1 Call OI chg. Put OI chg. 25 8 2 15 1 5 6 4 2-2 Call OI additions Call OI unwinding Put OI additions Put OI unwinding 64.25 call, 64.75-65.75 calls, 66.5-67.5 calls. 63 call, 64 call, 64.5 call, 66-66.25 calls. 63.5-63..75 puts, 64.25-65 puts, 65.5-66.25 puts. 64 put, 65.25 puts. Outlook: The currency pair may find support around 34.785-65., while on the upside resistance is seen at 65.25-65.3 levels.
Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 2-Apr JPY Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q1) 5:2 2.3%.6% 7.4% JPY Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q1) 5:2 2 22 19 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) 5:2 24 25 25 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1) 5:2 23 24 23 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 7:15 51 51.7 51.6 USD Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 19:15 55.6 55.7 55.7 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (Mar) 19:3 57.3 54.5 59.7 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 19:3 59.3 6 6.8 3-Apr USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks 3:3 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 14: 55.1 54.5 55. USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks 19: 4-Apr USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 2: -3.28mn 1.7mn 5.321mn CNY Caixin Services PMI (Mar) 7:15 52.3 54.2 JPY 1-Year JGB Auction 9:15.6% GBP Construction PMI (Mar) 14: 47 5.7 51.4 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) 17:45 241k 25k 246k USD Services PMI (Mar) 19:15 54 54.1 54.1 USD Cap Goods Ship Non-Defense Ex Air (m-o-m) 19:3 1.2% 1.4% -1.4% USD Durable Goods Orders (m-o-m) 19:3 3% 3.1% USD Factory Orders (m-o-m) (Feb) 19:3 1.2% 1.8% -1.3% USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Mar) 19:3 56.6 55 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 19:3 58.8 59 59.5 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2: -4.617mn -.287mn 1.643mn USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 2: 3.666mn 1.84mn USD Markit Composite PMI (Mar) 2:15 54.2 54.3 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks 2:3 5-Apr INR Interest Rate Decision 14:3 6% 6.% 6.% GBP Services PMI (Mar) 15: 51.7 54 54.5 USD Exports 18: 24.45bn 2.91bn USD Imports 18: 262..4bn 257.51bn USD Initial Jobless Claims 18: 242k 225k 218k USD Trade Balance (Feb) 18: -57.6bn -56.8bn -56.6bn 6-Apr JPY Household Spending (y-o-y) (Feb) 5:.3% 2.% JPY Household Spending (m-o-m) (Feb) 5: -.6% 2.7% USD Average Hourly Earnings (m-o-m) (Mar) 18:.2%.1% USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 18: 198k 313k USD Participation Rate (Mar) 18: 63.% USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 18: 192k 287k USD Unemployment Rate (Mar) 18: 4.% 4.1% USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 22:3
CURRENCY DAILY 6-4-218 Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research 22-62257267/ pranav.mer@adityavbirlacapital.com Sunil Darekar Advisor 22-62257268/ 22-62257278 sunil.darekar@adityabirlacapital.com Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither Aditya Birla Money Limited (ABML), its associate group companies, its directors, associates, employees nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of Aditya Birla Money Limited or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision. Aditya Birla Money Limited, its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions Aditya Birla Money Limited is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 214. SEBI Reg. No. INH2145