Daily Market Update Report as on Thursday, August 30, 2018 International Gold prices fell pressured after a small upward revision to second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data, as a leading dollar index stabilized near a one-month low, helping to send prices for the metal down a second straight session. While on MCX prices gained as support seen after The Indian rupee crashed more than 50 paise against the US dollar to hit an all-time low at 70.64 vs USD. The steep plunge in the Indian rupee against US dollar was seen after the Reserve Bank of Indian released its Annual Report 2017-2018 between 10 am to 11 am today. In the last hour of foreign exchange trading, the rupee collapsed to a fresh all-time low of 70.64, down 53 paise against US dollar. Floods Could Cut Indian Gold Demand In Half - As if the heavy selling pressure facing the gold market this year is not enough cause for worry, investors now have to contend with yet another challenge--waning demand by a key customer. Jewelers in India, the world s second largest gold buyer, have expressed fears that gold sales by the largest states in the country are likely to drop significantly following heavy rains and floods that have caused billions of dollars in damages. Worldwide gold demand drops 4 percent during second quarter of 2018 - Although gold demand continues to fall worldwide, the drop during the second quarter of 2018 was considerably less than the drop in demand during the same period in 2017. The second quarter of 2018 witnessed only a 4 percent drop in overall gold demand compared to the second quarter of 2017, primarily attributed to lower contributions to exchange-traded funds, reports the World Gold Council. The WGC reports that ETF contributions were down 46 percent from the same period in 2017. Gold bar and coin investment worldwide was relatively unchanged at 248 tonnes. Gold import scheme: UPA-2 role under lens - Identical representations by six Tamil Nadu-based jewellers to relax conditions in 80:20 gold import scheme, which the UPA government hurriedly obliged in its last week in office, are the focus of the fresh probe into the matter by the Central Bureau of Investigation. ET has reliably gathered that the CBI has obtained these new leads in the course of a renewed investigation into the matter. The matter has also been brought to the attention of the Prime Minister s Office. This is the second time that a PE (Preliminary Enquiry) has been launched into the matter. Gold Price Drop Spurs India Festive Demand But Kerala Disaster 'Will Boost Selling' - GOLD PRICES held little changed in Dollar terms alongside global stock markets on Wednesday, trading back in line with last week's finish at $1204 per ounce as commodities rose together with longer-term interest rates on major government bonds. Gold prices in India the metal's No.2 consumer nation, now about to enter its peak demand season of post-harvest weddings and the Diwali festival today edged back as the Indian Rupee bounced from its new all-time record lows versus the Dollar. Looking ahead to Diwali which falls in early November 2018 digital payments service Paytm forecast yesterday that its gold gifting app will see 1.5 tonnes of transaction volume over India's upcoming festive season, claiming a 70% share of the digital market. Date Gold* Silver* 29 Aug 2018 (Wednesday) 30215.00 37120.00 28 Aug 2018 (Tuesday) 30230.00 37445.00 27 Aug 2018 (Monday) 30035.00 37105.00 The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 29 Aug 2018 (Wednesday) Page 1
Outlook: Gold prices gained as funds bet prices would find short-term support at $1,200 despite of a stronger dollar and expectations for increases in U.S interest rates. For the day prices a drop towards 30120-30100 will look to buy with a stoploss of below 29950 expecting prices to jump towards 30240-30360 level. MCX GOLD Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low 30004.00 30200.00 30003.00 30188.00 164.00 0.55 5.00 150940 7955.00 7981.00 2.47 23959.39 31963.00 29268.00 Resistance 30454.00 30327.00 30257.00 30060.00 29933.00 29863.00 Support Spread DEC - OCT 208.00 FEB - DEC 211.00 Gold prices gained as funds bet prices would find short-term support at $1,200 but a stronger dollar and expectations for increases in U.S interest rates limited gains. The dollar rose as relief about a U.S.-Mexico trade deal gave way to concern among investors that the conflict over trade between the United States and China was not about to end soon. Adding to gold s woes are expectations for further U.S. interest rate increases this year, record bets on prices falling and liquidations in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Gross domestic product grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate, the Commerce Department data showed in its second estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter. That was slightly up from the 4.1 percent pace of expansion reported in July. The data cemented expectations for a U.S. rate hike next month, with a 96 percent probability, according to fed funds futures. The U.S. Federal Reserve should be ready to lift interest rates for a longer period or even more quickly than currently expected to insure against a jump in inflation in a U.S. economy operating in the vicinity of full employment. The leaders of the United States and Canada expressed optimism on Wednesday that they could reach new NAFTA deal by a Friday deadline as negotiators prepared to talk through the night, although Canada warned that a number of tricky issues remained. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.47% to settled at 7981 while prices up 164 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 30060 and below same could see a test of 29933 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30257, a move above could see prices testing 30327. Page 2
INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change 2.86 2.91 2.84 2.90 0.04 0.02 Resistance 2.98 2.94 2.92 2.86 2.82 2.80 Support Outlook: Gold price crawls upwards calmly to approach 1208.40 level, waiting to breach this level to ease the mission of heading towards our positive targets that begin at 1219.00 followed by 1238.31, to continue suggesting the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions conditioned by the price stability above 1197.00. Gold prices gained as funds bet prices would find short-term support at $1,200 but a stronger dollar and expectations for increases in U.S interest rates limited gains. The dollar rose as relief about a U.S.-Mexico trade deal gave way to concern among investors that the conflict over trade between the United States and China was not about to end soon. Adding to gold s woes are expectations for further U.S. interest rate increases this year, record bets on prices falling and liquidations in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Gross domestic product grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate, the Commerce Department data showed in its second estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter. That was slightly up from the 4.1 percent pace of expansion reported in July. The data cemented expectations for a U.S. rate hike next month, with a 96 percent probability, according to fed funds futures. The U.S. Federal Reserve should be ready to lift interest rates for a longer period or even more quickly than currently expected to insure against a jump in inflation in a U.S. economy operating in the vicinity of full employment. The leaders of the United States and Canada expressed optimism on Wednesday that they could reach new NAFTA deal by a Friday deadline as negotiators prepared to talk through the night, although Canada warned that a number of tricky issues remained. Technically now Gold is getting support at 1206.20 and below same could see a test of 1200.00 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1216.80, a move above could see prices testing 1222.20. Page 3
Rupee crashed more than 50 paise against the US dollar to hit an all-time low at 70.64. The US dollar strengthened after falling to a four-week low yesterday overnight. The relief over the US-Mexico trade deal was faded by concerns that the China-US trade war will drag on for some time. Today rupee should find some resistance around the 70.90 areas and above same can test 71.18 level. While supports for the day are at the 70.44 levels and then at the 70.10 levels. USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low 70.5000 70.8950 70.4900 70.8375 0.4575 0.65 2.51 1778 3843165 2763218 73.24 271798.08 71.0425 64.5000 Resistance 71.40 71.15 70.99 70.59 70.34 70.18 Support Spread OCT - SEP 0.2825 NOV - OCT 0.2350 Rupee touched a record low tracking weakness in Asian peers and on strong month-end dollar demand back home. India likely grew 7.6 percent in the April-June quarter, propelled in part by an improvement in manufacturing and exports. In the April-June 2017 quarter, India reported relatively weak annual growth of 5.6 percent, as manufacturing activity contracted. The Indian economy was hit by the November 2016 government decision to withdraw over 80 percent of cash. The transition to a national goods and services tax, effective in July 2017, also impacted the economy. The Indian government s preferred growth measure, gross value added (GVA), is predicted to have marginally declined to 7.5 percent from 7.6 percent the previous quarter, hampered by weak agriculture growth. India s fiscal deficit widened in the April-June quarter to 68.7 percent of the budgeted target for this fiscal year, a concern but an improvement 80.8 percent for the same period of 2017. This should provide some comfort to the Reserve Bank of India which raised its key rate to 6.5 percent at its Aug. 1policy meeting to try and rein in above-target inflation. The retail inflation rate slowed in July to a four-month low of 4.17 percent, slightly above the central bank s 4 percent medium-term target. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 73.44% to settled at 2766421, now USDINR is getting support at 70.505 and below same could see a test of 70.295 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 70.91, a move above could see prices testing 71.105. Page 4
Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold 995 - Ahmedabad 30970.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Ahmedabad 31100.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Bangalore 30960.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Bangalore 31110.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Chennai 30980.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Chennai 31130.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Cochin 30980.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Cochin 31130.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Delhi 30980.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Delhi 31130.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Hyderabad 30955.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Hyderabad 31105.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Jaipur 30985.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Jaipur 31105.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Kolkata 31000.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Mumbai 31130.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Mumbai 30980.00 * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver 999 - Ahmedabad 37850.00 MCX GOLD 04AUG2017 30188.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Bangalore 38195.00 MCX GOLD 05OCT2017 30396.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Chennai 38220.00 MCX GOLD 05DEC2017 30607.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Delhi 38245.00 MCX SILVER 05JUL2017 37135.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Hyderabad 38295.00 MCX SILVER 05SEP2017 37960.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Jaipur 38235.00 MCX SILVER 05DEC2017 38775.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Kolkata 38350.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Mumbai 38265.00 * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 26SEP2018 1207.40 CMDTY Gold London AM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD 28NOV2018 1212.20 CMDTY Gold London PM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 27SEP2018 30129.00 CMDTY Silver London FIX 16.45 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV2018 30306.00 DGCX SILVER 28NOV2018 14.80 Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 26FEB2019 14.84 Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 30AUG2018 40436.00 INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO 82.06 DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV2018 41189.00 MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO 81.29 Page 5
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