THE RHODE ISLAND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECAST: MATCHING SKILLS TO JOBS Through April of 2012, Rhode Island continued to have the second highest unemployment rate in the United States with 62,178 people unemployed. The state s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April 2012 was 11.2 percent, a one-tenth of a percentage point increase from the March 2012 rate. This number does not include the underemployed or those who left the workforce because they could not find a job. A double-digit unemployment rate is forecasted for Rhode Island in 2012 and 2013. The Rhode Island labor force totaled 556,259 in April 2012, down about 1,000 from March and down 7,820 from April 2011. This is the lowest labor force level since March 2005. Rhode Island has lost 33,100 jobs since 2006. The challenges to turn the economy around are significant including reducing the overall costs of doing business and changing the perception that Rhode Island in an unfriendly place to do business. In addition, the state also faces a mismatch of talent with job needs. Employers are looking for skilled and semi-skilled workers, especially for jobs in information technology, health care, science and technology. Occupations that employ workers with postsecondary education are growing faster than other occupations. However, there are job opportunities in the trades where baby boomers are now retiring. In situations where industries are disappearing, the skills of the employees in these industries may not be of use in other industries. One of the mismatches causing the high unemployment rate has been jobs where there were few instate applicants with the required skills. Workers who lost their jobs at the beginning of the recession in 2007 may not be qualified to fill job openings in 2012. In 2011, 40.8 percent of Rhode Island residents 25 years and older had an associate degree, or BA degree, or graduate degree, compared to just under 50 percent in in MA, CT, and NH. This puts Rhode Island in a disadvantaged competitive position in the region in terms of labor force qualifications. In addition, over 45 percent of the Rhode Island population 25 years and older holds only a high school degree. Workers with only a high school education are facing increasing difficulties to find and retain jobs in a global and highly competitive economy. The demand for high-skilled labor in Rhode Island will increase in most employment sectors over the next decade. More highly-skilled health professionals will be needed because of an aging population. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, over 50 percent of the fastest growing occupations in the next five years will be related to health care. In Rhode Island, jobs such as medical records and health information technicians and clinical laboratory technicians are expected to grow. Another occupation with strong growth potential for workers will be in clean energy production and environmental protection. There is also a demand for semi-skilled workers which do not require a bachelor s degree or graduate degree. However, these positions require strong vocational training that can be acquired on-the-job or by training. Rhode Island currently has a below average adult population with associate degrees which focus on vocational training. In 2011, 8.8 percent of the population 25 years and older had an associate degree compared to 11.5 percent in New Hampshire and 10 percent in the rest of the nation. Many Rhode Islanders need postsecondary education or job training to prepare for a 21 st century global economy.
State government agencies, educational institutions, employers and labor unions must work together to make sure there is a labor pool to fill local jobs. This labor pool must also be capable to compete on a regional labor market otherwise job opportunities in neighboring markets will be missed or local jobs will be filled with workers from other states. There needs to be collaboration between these organizations to ensure that any curriculum is aligned with workforce needs. A greater investment in elementary and secondary education in Rhode Island would help students gain strong basic skills that will be needed in the job market. FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS Rhode Island s total nonfarm employment is forecasted to be 460,200 in 2012, the same number observed in 2011. The lack of job creation in the short term is the outcome of a struggling local labor market. The annual growth rate of employment is forecasted to be 1.6 percent from 2011 to 2016 as compared to -1.4 percent from 2006 to 2011. The average unemployment rate in 2012 is expected to be 10.8 percent and by 2016 be 6.6 percent. From 2012 to 2016, the unemployment rate is forecasted to be above the average rates in New England and the nation. In 2012, employment in information services, professional and business services and high-tech will increase. Other employment sectors are showing a decrease in jobs. Manufacturing employment is holding constant at about 41,000 jobs through 2016. In 2013, employment in construction, information services, financial activities, professional and business services, education and health, leisure and hospitality and high tech are showing some growth. Rhode Island s Real Gross State Product (GSP) is forecasted to reach $45.8 billion in 2012, an increase of 1.8 percent compared to 2011's real GSP. Most of the economic growth is expected to take place in the third and fourth quarters of 2012. The annual growth rate of GSP is forecasted as 2.5 percent from 2011 to 2016 as compared to 0 percent from 2006 to 2011. Nominal personal income is expected to be $47.3 billion in 2012 as compared to $46.2 billion in 2011, a 2.4 percent increase, and $49.1 billion in 2013, a 3.7 percent increase over 2012. Per capita income is expected to increase to $45,040 in 2012 from $43,949 in 2011, an increase of 2.5 percent. In 2013, per capital income is forecasted to increase 3.7 percent. The median price of a home was $203,600 in 2012 Q1 and is expected to be $222,300 in 2013. By 2016, it is forecasted that the median price of a home in Rhode Island will be $246,400 compared to $280,500 in 2006. It is forecasted that there will be 955 housing permits issued in 2012 as compared to 685 in 2011. From 2011 to 2016, the annual growth rate in housing permits is expected to be 23 percent as compared to -22 percent from 2006 to 2011. Bankruptcies are expected to decrease from 5,100 in 2011 to 4,300 in 2012 and to 3,900 in 2013. The population in Rhode Island is expected to grow 0.1 percent from 2011 to 2016, an increase in population of about 5,000 people. The age cohort 65 and up is the segment of the population showing the greatest growth from 2011 to 2016. Population in this age cohort is expected to grow of 1.9 percent (annualized rate) during this period. THE MACRO ECONOMY Growth in employment in 2012 and 2013 will be very slow and keep the unemployment rate above the 10 percent threshold until the end of 2013. The state s real gross state product (GSP) is
forecasted to grow just 1.8 (annualized rate) percent in 2012. The forecast suggests that most of the growth is expected to take place in the third and fourth quarters of 2012. This growth rate is smaller than the expected growth of 2.9 percent in 2012 for the New England region. Rhode Island s GSP is forecasted to grow 2.5 (annualized rate) percent from 2011 to 2016, compared to an increase of 2.8 percent for the New England region. Real total personal income in Rhode Island is forecasted to increase 2.5 percent from 2011 to 2016, compared to an increase of 0.5 percent from 2006 to 2011. Real per capita personal disposable income will be just over $35,262 in 2011, which represents a 0.6 percent increase compared to the 2011 figure. From 2011 to 2016, real per capita disposable income is forecasted to increase 0.9 percent. Average nominal wages and salaries are forecasted to increase from just under $45,300 in 2012 Q1 to $46,400 in 2013 Q1 and just over $46,500 in 2013 Q1. However, the increases in nominal wages and salaries are just enough to counterbalance price increases. Real average wages and salaries are forecasted to grow just 0.6 percent in 2012. From 2013 to 2016 real wages and salaries are forecasted to increase about 1.0 percent (annualized rate). EMPLOYMENT The Rhode Island employment data were revised by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in March. The data revisions were significant and caused the unemployment rate to increase and the employment numbers to decrease compared to data previously released. Total nonfarm employment in Rhode Island was 457,700 in 2012 Q1, compared to 459,300 jobs in 2011 Q1 and 457,700 jobs in 2010 Q1. Therefore, any jobs created from 2010 Q1 to 2011 Q1 were destroyed in 2011. The revised figures confirm that Rhode Island s job market is not recovering at all while both the New England area and the rest of the nation experienced significant job creation since 2009. The trend ahead is not that encouraging: the forecast suggests that the number of jobs based in Rhode Island will be just 460,200 in 2012. From 2011 to 2014, Rhode Island is expected to add just over 17,000 jobs. Job growth in outer years is forecasted to be 1.6 percent, on average, from 2011 to 2016. During the same period, in the U.S. the total number of jobs is expected to grow 2 percent per year. The weak labor market has caused the unemployment rate to reach 11.1 percent in March 2012. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 10.4 percent in 2012 Q4 and to 10.1 percent in 2013 Q3. The unemployment rate is expected to be below 10 percent only by the end of 2013 and be 7.5 percent in 2015. From 2012 to 2016, the unemployment rate is forecasted to be above the average rates in New England and the nation. As highlighted in previous NEEP reports, the weak labor market has caused the labor force to shrink significantly in Rhode Island since 2008. The labor force was 559.000 in 2012 Q1 and is expected to be 562,000 by 2012 Q4. By 2016, it is forecasted that the labor force in Rhode Island will be 567,000 compared to $572,000 in 2008. The labor force is expected to grow 0.1 percent from 2011 to 2016. In Rhode Island, there are no signs that manufacturing activity will rebound. The manufacturing sector employed 40,800 Rhode Islanders in 2012 Q1 and is expected to employ just 42,000 workers by 2016. From 2011 to 2016, employment in manufacturing is expected to grow 0.6 percent in Rhode Island, the same rate expected across the New England region.
Financial services were also greatly affected by the economic recession in 2007 and are expected to add few jobs in 2012 and 2013. Financial services employed 30,400 workers in 2012 Q1 and are forecasted to employ 31,700 workers by the end of 2013. Job creation in Rhode Island is expected to take place in service sectors. Education and health services, the largest industry in Rhode Island, are expected to add a significant number of jobs over the next years. Employment in education and health services is expected to increase from 103,500 jobs in 2012 Q1 to 154,100 in 2013 Q1 and 100,800 in 2015 Q4. From 2011 to 2016, employment opportunities in education and health services are expected to grow by 1.6 percent. New England will outperform Rhode Island in terms of employment growth in education and health services at a forecasted growth rate of 2.0 percent from 2011 to 2016. The two fastest growing industries are information services and the high tech industry (information is part of high tech industry). From 2011 to 2016, the Rhode Island high tech industry is expected to grow 2.9 percent per year, compared to 2.1 percent in New England. The information sector is expected to expand at an average of 3.2 percent from 2011 to 2016. Leisure and hospitality employed 48,500 people in 2012 Q1 is expected to employ just under 50,000 workers in 2012 Q4. About 5,000 jobs will be created in leisure and hospitability from 2012 to 2016. Between 2011 and 2016, the average growth rate of employment in Leisure and hospitality services is forecasted at 2.1percent in Rhode Island compared to a growth of 1.9 percent in New England. Employment in professional and business services is forecasted to increase by about 7,000 jobs from 2012 to 2016. The average growth rate of employment in professional and business services is forecasted at 2.7 percent between 2011 and 2016, the second highest growth rate among all industries in Rhode Island. From 2011 to 2016, employment in trade, transportation, and utilities is expected to grow 1 percent in Rhode Island, compared to a growth of 0.2 percent in New England. By 2016, trade, transportation, and utilities will be employing 76,800 Rhode Islanders, compared to a total of 80,000 people employed in 2007. HOUSING The median price of a home in Rhode Island in the first quarter of 2012 was $203,600, compared to a peak median price of $287,000 in the first quarter of 2007. In Rhode Island lower prices have caused the affordability index (ratio of median house price to median household income) to decline from 5.8 percent in the third quarter of 2005 to 3.8 percent in 2012 Q1. Housing affordability is currently at the level observed in the beginning of 2002. The trends in the housing market indicate that improvements in the affordability index will be sustained in the near term. The forecast suggests that housing prices will increase modestly over the next few years. The median price is forecasted to be $222,300 in 2012, $235,300 in 2014 and $246,400 in 2016. These estimates are slightly higher than the figures presented in previous forecasts. However, this is not an indication that the housing market will be turning around soon particularly because the sale of existing homes is at very a low level (similar to levels seen in the mid-1990s). Sales of existing home dropped from an average of 13,400 units in 2006 to 8,600 (annualized) units in 2012 Q1. The NEEP forecast indicates that sales of existing houses will increase to about 9,000 units in 2012 and stay under 10,000 (annualized) from 2012 to 2016.
As reported in the 2011 Fall NEEP Report, housing construction is still at historical lows in Rhode Island. In 2012, it is forecasted that just 955 housing permits will be issued compared to 685 in 2011 and 2,836 in 2005 (peak). The expectation, however, is that housing construction will slowly increase over the next few years. Just under 1,600 permits are expected to be issued in 2013 and 1,800 in 2014. Most of the permits issued will be for single-family housing. From 2011 to 2016, housing permits are expected to grow 23 percent compared to a decline of 22 percent from 2006 to 2011. STATE CHALLENGES Rhode Island transitioned to a service-based economy in the 1990s from a manufacturing economy, like many other states. Nationally, a quarter of today s workers are in jobs not listed in the Census Bureau s Occupation codes in 1967. In Rhode Island, the number of people employed in manufacturing has leveled off with some areas in specialized manufacturing growing. The skills required in manufacturing are different than those required in service industries. Rhode Island s skills gap is not only in high-tech but also in jobs such as personal care aides, home health aides, helpers in construction trades, electricians, plumbers, engineering technicians and medical technicians. The skills sought by employers include technical writing, the ability to communicate with others, the ability to work independently and to be able to think critically and solve problems. Rhode Island needs to improve its educational system and focus on vocational programs and retraining for displaced workers to provide them with the skills they need to compete in a changing labor market. The current approach to matching skills to jobs has not been successful because of low completion rates of individuals entering these programs, poor curriculum, little coordination among programs, no accountability and outdated restrictions. Improving skills is vital in matching Rhode Island workers with jobs. Edward M. Mazze Distinguished University Professor of Business Administration College of Business Administration The University of Rhode Island Kingston, Rhode Island 02881 emazze@uri.edu Edinaldo Tebaldi Assistant Professor of Economics Department of Economics Bryant University Smithfield, Rhode Island 02917 etebaldi@bryant.edu