Are there any good jobs / workers in the Asheville region?

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1 Are there any good jobs / workers in the Asheville region? Jeff DeBellis Director or Economic & Policy Analysis NC Department of Commerce Jeff.DeBellis@nccommerce.com

2 How do you explain the disconnect where most employers contend they have good jobs that they cannot fill while most individuals in the region contend there are few good jobs available locally.

3 What do employers want? Where are they having difficulty? Break Down the Problem What do workers want? What is a good job? How is Asheville or Mountain Area WDB Region doing? (Population, Employment, Jobs, Wages, & Wage Growth, etc.) Is there a growing Labor Mismatch in the Region? What can be done to grow wages & satisfy employers?

4 Hiring Difficulties What Do Employers Need from the Labor Force?

employers) Work Experience Education/Credentials Technical Skills Soft Skills Low Pay acknowledged as factor by

5 North Carolina s Skills Gap? or Job Mismatch? 4 in10 Employers in NC claim some Hiring Difficulty Top 4 Areas of Difficulty (cited by at least 50% of employers) Work Experience Education/Credentials Technical Skills Soft Skills Low Pay acknowledged as factor by 30% of employers Slightly more difficultly in Construction & Manufacturing Slightly less difficulty in STEM and Healthcare Source: NC Department of Commerce, 2016 Employer Needs Survey

6 Good Jobs What Does the Workforce Look for in a Job?

7 Pays relatively high earnings and perhaps more importantly provides opportunities for increases in earnings over time What is a Good Job? Provides adequate fringe benefits, such as health insurance and retirement benefits Enables the worker to have opportunities for autonomy and control over work activities Gives the worker some flexibility and control over scheduling and terms of employment Provides the worker with some control over termination of the job Kalleberg, Arne, Good Jobs, Bad Jobs: The Rise of Polarized and Precarious Employment Systems in the United States, 1970s to 2000s.

8 Mountain Area Economy State of the Region in Employment and Jobs (in 12 slides or less)

9 Strong Population Growth Led by Buncombe & Henderson Counties North Carolina 28% WDB 28% Buncombe 15% 30% Henderson 14% 27% Madison 8% 16% Transylvania 9% 20% 15% 14% 11% Western Prosperity Zone 21% Source: NC Office of State Budget & Management

10 Population is Aging and Getting Older #54 #13 #26 # Buncombe Henderson Madison Transylvania North Carolina Source: NC Office of State Budget & Management

11 12% 10.9% 10% 10.3% Unemployment Rate Consistently Lower than NC 8% 6% 4% 4.7% 3.5% 8.9% North Carolina 5.7% Western Region 5.3% WDB 4.6% 2% Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics

12 11% 10% 9% Low Unemployment Creates Tight Labor Market 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Madison County, 5.7% Transylvania County, 5.5% Henderson County, 4.7% Buncombe County, 4.3% Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics

13 10% WDB 9.0% 8% 6% North Carolina 7.9% Steady Job Growth in the Mountain Area WDB Region 4% 2% 0% -2% -0.8% -1.8% Western Region 3.9% -4% -3.8% -6% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

14 Regional Job Growth Driven by Buncombe County Henderson, Madison, & Transylvania still struggle Not to Pre-Recession levels 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Buncombe County 13.8% Henderson County -1.3% Transylvania County -1.5% Madison County -7.5% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

15 Recent Wage Growth after Years of Decline (Real Wages, adjusted for inflation) 2015 Wages Only 2.6% Higher than % 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% North Carolina 6.8% WDB 2.6% Western Region 2.6% -2% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

16 Real Wage Growth Low in All Counties No County within 50% of NC s Real Wage Growth (6.8%) since % 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% Madison County 3.1% Buncombe County 3.0% Henderson County 0.9% Transylvania County -1.6% -7% -9% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

17 Composition of Industries Matter, 2015 NC Employment Mix WDB Employment Mix Health Care & Social Assistance 14.2% All Other 33.0% Health Care & Social Assistance 19.4% All Other 25.7% Retail Trade 11.8% Admin, & Waste Mgmt Services 7.0% Retail Trade 13.6% Admin, & Waste Mgmt Services 5.9% Manufacturing 11.1% Accommodation & Food Services 9.5% Construction 4.5% Education 8.9% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Manufacturing 10.5% Accommodation & Food Services 13.0% Education 7.5%

18 If the WDB Mix Matched NC s Composition WDB Employment Mix w/ NC Composition $118 Million More in Total Wages For the Mountain Area 1.8% Above 2015 s Actual Total Health Care & Social Assistance 14.2% Retail Trade 11.8% All Other 33.0% Admin, & Waste Mgmt Services 7.0% Manufacturing 11.1% Construction 4.5% Education 8.9% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Accommodation & Food Services 9.5%

19 Wages within Industries Matter, 2015 Average wage vs. NC average is -$8,000 or 17% lower 16 out of 20 Industries are at least -10% lower than the NC average Across the top 5 paying industries in NC, the average wage for the Mountain Area is 30% lower Healthcare is a regional strength. Wages are $3,000 higher or 7% above the NC average

20 Wage Discrepancies Greatest in High-Tech Industries High Tech wages are 103% higher $90,685 $44,723 WDB High Tech wage gap -36% $58,332 High Tech wages are 49% higher $39,019 High Tech Non- High Tech High Tech Non- High Tech NC WDB Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, high tech as defined by the National Institute of Standards & Technology

21 Why Are Wages So Low Among Highest Paying Industries? Compared to NC, 2015 Percent of employees with a Bachelor s degree is below the state average across Region s top-paying industries Industries Management of Companies Information Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, & Tech Srvs Manufacturing % Employed with Bachelor's WDB NC Variance 19% 28% -9% 29% 35% -6% 34% 38% -4% 32% 36% -4% 16% 17% -1%

22 Why Are Wages So Low Among Highest Paying Industries? Compared to NC, 2015 Smaller proportion of Mountain Area employment at mid- or large-size business Industries Management of Companies Information Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, & Tech Srvs Manufacturing % Establishments > 50 Employees WDB NC Variance 0% 84% -84% 26% 66% -40% 0% 55% -55% 14% 42% -28% 76% 82% -6%

23 Asheville s Growing Labor Mismatch? The data says

24 Mountain Area Labor Supply / Demand Slack Market High # Unemployed per Available Jobs # Unemployed per # Job Vacancies Tight Market Low # Unemployed per Available Jobs North Carolina Mountain Area WDB Source: Commerce LEAD calculations using LAUS, JOLTS, & Conference Board s Help Wanted Online

25 jobs in thousands 1,600 In North Carolina Increases in Non-Routine Jobs Declines in Routine Jobs 1,400 1,200 1, Routine Manual Routine Cognitive Non-Routine Cognitive Non-Routine Manual Source: BLS, Current Population Survey

26 Labor Surplus in Routine Manual jobs More labor supply than demand for workers Inconclusive Evidence Regional Occupational Mismatch is Better / Worse than NC What We Know Mountain Area Labor Market Tight Labor Market compared to Pre-Recession & NC Fewer unemployed per labor force & job openings Harder for employers to find workers at expected wage More Workers are Unable to Find Desired Jobs in their Home County Greater reliance on urban employment centers Expansion of labor market geographies

27 Can We Grow Wages & Make Employers Happy?

28 Incent Competition in High-Pay Industries Expand workforce education & skills in high-pay industries Expands business productivity, output, & employment growth Attract & Grow new businesses in high-pay industries Increased competition for labor adds wage pressure

29 Questions? Jeff DeBellis

Coastal Counties Economic Overview

Coastal Counties Economic Overview LEGISLATIVE MANDATE SECTION 14.22.(c) The Department of Commerce shall study and provide an executive summary of readily available economic data related to the 20 coastal