MYANMAR S FIRST NATIONAL SOCIAL PROTECTION STRATEGY: A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR MYANMAR CHILDREN AND FAMILIES Cristina Roccella OVERALL POVERTY PICTURE Population heavily clustered around the poverty line Poverty is higher in rural areas Poverty is geographically distinct by region Risks differ by life stage Poverty is associated with levels of education and health status Many non-income vulnerabilities exist (e.g., children outside of family care) Poverty is correlated with household size There is a high risk of shocks such as disasters Poverty is affected by low returns to work, not so much work availability 1
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK Output growth rose 8 ¼ percent in FY 13/ 14 Inflation has stabilized at 6% year on year (April 2014) Stable exchange rate since the 2013 depreciation Current account deficit (5 ¼%) fully financed by FDI, loans and other inflows IMF assesses Myanmar is at low risk of debt distress Government expenditure is roughly 28% of GDP Favorable economic outlook: Growth projected at 8 /14% in the next few years due to gas production and investment One-off revenues will bring headline deficit to 4 ½% of GDP Overall, Myanmar s current and projected economic performance is broadly conducive to more investment in the social sectors through a mix of reallocation and budget increases a Golden opportunity for social investments Source: IMF 2014 Article IV consultation CURRENT SYSTEM Number and scope of programmes extremely limited for country this size Some social insurance programs through Social Security Board Much lower spending than other Asian countries, even when adjusted for GDP Many programmes supported by NGOs and Government needs to stand on its own 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Expenditures (%GDP) % GDP 2
THE PROCESS OF STRATEGY PREPARATION SOCIAL PROTECTION STRATEGY MASTERPLAN: TIMELINE AND ACTIVITIES 2012 SP CONFERENCE FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REFORM (Jan 13) ASEAN DECLARATION ON STRENGTHENING SOCIAL PROTECTION Oct 13) STRATEGY LAUNCH WORKSHOP (Jan 14) NATIONWIDE INVENTORY (Jan-Mar 14) TRAINING SESSION ON INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES (Apr 14) ABND WORKSHOPS (May-Sept 14) TECHNICAL SUPPORT GROUP POLICY WORKSHOP (Sept 14) FINAL DRAFTING (Oct 14) AND ENDORSEMENT (Dec 14) 3
CRITERIA USED FOR STRATEGY PREPARATION Complements and supports Myanmar s poverty reduction and economic growth strategies Addresses the different risks and vulnerabilities across the life cycle Highlights most costeffective programmes in reaching the poor and vulnerable Takes a universal and equitable approach Adopts a holistic approach recognizing the diverse and complex risks and vulnerabilities facing individuals and families Includes a peoplecentered approach that reflects Myanmar s social norms Highlights evidencebased approaches Includes policy and programme designs that are child and gender sensitive Adopts a flexible and adaptive approach so that social protection can be modified and strengthened over time WHY A UNIVERSAL APPROACH? Assessing income and means across all of Myanmar would require enormous resources 80% of the population is clustered near the poverty line, so those resources would be chasing a small minority of people It is very difficult to assess income and means, and many poor and vulnerable would be excluded and well off included, leading to inequity and social tension The very well off self-target, meaning they are not likely to queue in line for a benefit of the sizes proposed in the Strategy As Myanmar s economy grows, and more graduate to middle and higher income, targeting can be introduced 4
MYANMAR S SOCIAL PROTECTION STRATEGY: SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR ALL DEFINITION OF SOCIAL PROTECTION (MYANMAR STRATEGY) Social protection includes policies, legal instruments, programmes, benefits and services for individuals and households that prevent and alleviate economic and social vulnerabilities, promote access to essential services and infrastructure and economic opportunity, and facilitate the ability to better manage and cope with shocks that arise from humanitarian emergencies and/or sudden loss of income. 5
THE RECOMMENDED CORE INTERVENTIONS (FLAGSHIPS) FOR SP ACROSS THE LIFE CYCLE Early childhood/mate rnity Universal benefit to pregnant mothers and children 0-2 School age Universal child allowance age 3-18 School feeding program Working age Public works programme - Vocational education and training Work safety and preparedness Old age Social pensions Older Person Self Help Groups Disability allowance 0-18 Allowance for people with disabilities (18 plus) FOCUS ON CHILDREN 6
FLAGSHIP: MATERNITY AND CHILD BENEFIT Objective: To provide expecting mothers and young children with additional resources they can use to provide for their basic needs, including nutritional needs and access to available services. Parameter Recommendation Description Cash benefit from last 6 months of pregnancy to 2 years Lead Agency/Provider MSWRR Phasing 2015: All pregnant mothers (last six months); 2016: Pregnant mothers plus children to age 1; 2017: Pregnant mothers plus children to age 2 Benefit duration Maximum 30 months (depending on sequencing) Benefit level and type Cash benefit of 15,000 Kyats/month Conditionality Soft: midwife visits, ANC checkups, nutrition awareness Universal or targeted Universal (all pregnant mothers) Geographic scope Entire country Number of beneficiaries 848,000 in 2015, 2,281,000 in 2017 Projected cost 0.14% GDP (2015), 0.32% GDP (2024) FLAGSHIP: ALLOWANCE FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES Objective: To support the well-being of all those with disabilities, and to support their access to services that promote all-round development and their best interests, especially during childhood Parameter Recommendation Description Cash benefit to all with disabilities Lead Agency/Provider MSWRR, Ministry of Home Affairs, MoE, MoH, Ministry of Population/development, township child rights committees, CSOs, UN agencies, etc. Phasing Launch 2016 once certification system developed by DSW Benefit duration Through older age Benefit level and type Cash benefit of 16,000 Kyats/month for child, 30,000 Kyats/month adult. Conditionality Universal or targeted Geographic scope FLAGSHIP: ALLOWANCE FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES All certified with disabilities Universal Entire country Cost 0.30% GDP (2016) 7
FLAGSHIP: CASH ALLOWANCE FOR CHILDREN AGES 3-15 Objective: To support families in providing services that promote all around children s development and the best interests of the child Parameter Description Lead Agency/Provider Phasing Benefit duration Benefit level and type Conditionality Universal or targeted Geographic scope Number of beneficiaries Costs Recommendation Every caregiver of a child from 3-15 receives allowance MSWRR, implementers (local authorities, social workers, MWCWA, other ministries Launching after maternity and child benefit IN 2018 and phasing in one year of age each year Through age 15 (depending on phasing) Cash benefit of MMK 8,000/month All children registered in national registration system Universal Entire country 11 million when fully implemented 0,98% of GDP when fully phased in FLAGSHIP: SCHOOL FEEDING PROGRAMME Objective: To increase enrollment rates, reduce dropout and regularize attendance, and to strengthen the learning capacity of children Parameter Recommendation Description One cooked meal per day per child in all schools Lead Agency/Provider Ministry of Education (primary/secondary), MSWRR (preschools). Implemented by local governments, PTAs, WFP, UNICEF, NGOs, CSOs Phasing Progressive start with schools with low net enrollment in highly food insecure areas Benefit duration Throughout school enrollment Benefit level and type In-kind, cost about 350 Kyats per child Conditionality Government schools Contributory or not? Non-contributory at first, will explore in-kind and/or cash contributions once well established Universal or targeted Universal Geographic scope See phasing above Number of beneficiaries 9.2 million by 2019 Cost 0.6% of GDP when extended to all schools 8
OTHER IMPORTANT FLAGSHIP PROGRAMMES FLAGSHIP: PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT and VET PROGRAMME Objective: To offer wage employment opportunities in local work to poor households to enhance the quality of their environment and their income Parameter Recommendation Description Local works, seasonal, off season, early recovery from disasters and disaster preparedness, short term (repair works, village maintenance, environmental works). Lead Agency/Provider MLFRD and MOLES, and state/region, other ministries, NGO/INGO/UN Phasing Select 2-3 states/regions at first Benefit duration 60 days/year Benefit level and type 3,000 Kyats/day Conditionality Self-identify Universal or targeted Targeted but self-identify Contributory or not? Non-contributory Geographic scope Cover country by 2020 Number of beneficiaries About 6 million by 2020 Cost About 1.7% of GDP by 2024 9
FLAGSHIP: SOCIAL PENSION Objective: Income security for all people of older ages. Families who care for those of older ages will also benefit from the income that will be available to meet their needs. Parameter Recommendation Description Cash benefit to those 65 and over Lead Agency/Provider MSWRR/DSW, Ministry of Finance, state and regional authorities Phasing Launch 2015 Benefit duration Through end of life Benefit level and type Cash benefit of 25,000 Kyats/month Conditionality All adults of eligible age (65+). Universal or targeted Universal Geographic scope Entire country Number of beneficiaries About 3.5 million by 2019 Cost 1.39% of GDP PROJECTED IMPACT OF THREE CORE BENEFITS (UNICEF calculations) Summary of 3 Core Social Protection Interventions Benefit Description Estimated number of beneficiaries First 1000 days allowance (maternity and children 0-2) Monthly allowance of MMK 15,000 from last 6 months of pregnancy to age 2 Estimated cost (%GDP, preliminary) 2.25 million 0.14% (2015) 0.44% (2017) PROJECTED IMPACT WHEN FULLY IMPLEMENTED Total headcount of poor (2010 data) falls 49% Child allowance from 3 to 15 years Monthly allowance of MMK 8,000 from age 3-15 12 million (phases in from 2018) 0.95% (2024) Average income gap for poor to exit poverty falls 65% Social pension Monthly allowance of MMK 25,000 to those over 65+ 4.3 million (2024) 1.29% (2024) Income inequality falls 6% 10
PROJECTED IMPACT OF THREE CORE BENEFITS (initial calculations, UNICEF) Summary of 3 Core Social Protection Interventions Benefit Description Estimated cost (%GDP, preliminary) Estimated poverty reduction (%) First 1000 days allowance (maternity and children 0-2) Monthly allowance of MMK 15,000 from last 6 months of pregnancy to age 2 0.14% (2015) 0.44% (2017) -1.7% (minimum) Child allowance from 3 to 15 years Monthly allowance of MMK 8,000 from age 3-15 0.95% (2024) -7.6% (minimum) The large majority of families living in poverty have children Social pension Monthly allowance of MMK 25,000 to those over 65+ 1.29% (2024) -4.6% (minimum) BUILDING A SYSTEM: INTEGRATED SOCIAL PROTECTION SERVICES 11
INTEGRATED SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS Address social and economic needs of the most vulnerable groups; Assess the needs of individuals, families and communities; Coordinate interventions from different services through a multi-sectoral approach; Ensure coordination with civil society, community based organisations and charities; Involve a professional cadre of social workers, trained on case management and referral practices and equipped with the resources needed to deliver effective support to those in need; and Ensure one entry point for citizens in need of social protection FLAGSHIP: INTEGRATED SOCIAL PROTECTION SERVICES Objective: To assess and respond to the social needs of venerable groups, responding to the multiple dimensions of vulnerabilities and coordinating interventions Parameter Recommendation Oversight responsibility MSWRR Other sectors represented Health, education, rural development, labour, Home affairs (GAD, Police), finance, population and immigration, justice. Civil society fully involved How programmes coordinated Other Cost Committees are set up at national, state, district and township level (linked with the TDSC) Protocols of cooperation established between services, defining roles and responsibilities Target 6,000 social workers and 330 Centres over 5 years 0,02% of GDP This programme will include the design of a one entry-point for social protection, with specifications on how to provide and collect information (MIS), how to manage cases, how to ensure referral mechanisms, manage programme and resources 12
BUILDING A SYSTEM: DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND SOCIAL PROTECTION DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT DRM addresses people s risks to natural hazards SP aims to increase community resilience by targeting social and economic vulnerabilities of poor families 13
ISPS AND DRM Use the existing social protection system (network of social workers, electronic database, cash and in-kind transfer mechanisms) to reach disaster affected populations with relief assistance in the aftermath of a disaster; and Use the ISPS system to disseminate disaster risk information and increase the capacity of the most vulnerable to prepare, respond and cope with disasters. PROJECTED COSTS OF SOCIAL PROTECTION FLAGSHIPS Intervention Lead Agency 2015 2016 2017 MMK MMK (millions MMK % GDP (millions) %GDP ) %GDP (mil) 2024 (projected ) Assumes phased in per Maternity and child allowance to age 2 MSWRR 0.14%103,311 0.33%275,886 0.44%415,062 Strategy (pregnant women, 0.32% then 1, then 2 Disability allowance MSWRR 0.00% - 0.24%197,621 0.31%297,648 Starts in 2016, assumes 0.43% 100% coverage Would begin in 2018, assumes full coverage by Child allowance ages 3-15 MSWRR 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.95% 2024 Assumes 20% schools in 2015, same increases in School feeding MOE 0.25%183,771 0.47%385,752 0.64%605,332 0.61% later years Public employment/vet MRDFL 0.61%437,049 1.13%931,491 1.57%1,484,187 Assumes 20% coverage, 60 1.71% days work/training 1,193,40 Assumes 100% covered, Social pension MSWRR 1.59%1,145,430 1.44% 0 1.32%1,249,560 1.30% 65+ %GDP Older person self help group MSWRR 0.00%1,000 0.00%1,500 0.00%2,000 0.00% Investment costs for each Integrated social protection services MSWRR 0.01%3,768 0.01%6,907 0.01%10,409 centre (MMK 1.5 million) 0.01% should be added TOTAL 2.60% 1,874,329 3.63%2,992,557 4.30%4,064,198 5.33% Notes 14
WHAT CAN EVERYBODY DO TO PROMOTE INCREASED SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR CHILDREN AND FAMILIES? Options for support in 2015 Funding the strategy: Look into options to channel additional resources for the implementation of flagship programmes Creation of a social protection system in Myanmar: Promote the idea of having an integrated system in the country, with one-entry point (single window) in each township, and a coordinated referral mechanism for social protection programmes (with the involvement of case managers) Lobbying for children: Increase the focus on how new reforms and laws passed are going to have an impact on children (in terms of benefits and risks) 15
The Golden opportunity for Myanmar children is now Tremendous opportunities ahead to improve life conditions and access to opportunities for children and families in Myanmar Thank you 16