Resources mobilization for the implementation of the Brussels Programme of Action:

Transcription

1 Resources mobilization for the implementation of the Brussels Programme of Action: The Experiences of Timor-Leste Presented by: Aicha Bassarewan, Vice Minister of Planning & Finance, RDTL Haoliang Xu, Senior Deputy Resident Representative, UNDP ECOSOC High-Level Segment Preparatory Meeting New York, March 2004

2 SOUTHEAST ASIA MAP Timor-Leste was formally recognised as LDC in December 2003 (GA/10221) 1

3 TIMOR-LESTE MAP 2

4 KEY FIGURES Demography Population: 794,298 (estimate 2001) 76% rural (as % of total) Annual population growth rate: 0.90% ( ) Population under 15 years old: 44% (estimate 2001) Dependency ratio: 82% (2001) Fertility rate (children/woman): 7.1 (estimate 2002) Life expectancy and Mortality Life expectancy at birth - Male: 55.6 years; female: 59.2 years (2001) Infant mortality rate/1,000 live births: 80.1 (2001) Under-5 mortality rate/1,000 live births: (2001) Maternal mortality rate/100,000 live births: 420 (1999) Poverty Population below US$1-a-day: 20% Population below national poverty line: 41% Source:UNDP National Human Development Report Inequality Gini index: 37% Education Adult literacy rate (as % of those aged 15 and over): 43% (estimate 2001) Net enrolment ratio (primary education): 76% Infrastructure Access to improved water source: 50% Access to piped or pump water: 42% Economy GDP: US$389m (estimate 2001) GDP per capita: US$478 (estimate 2001) 3

5 KEY MILESTONES OF TIMOR-LESTE FROM 1999 Popular consultation followed by violence CNRT Tibar conference ETTA Election of Constituent Assembly Creation of FDTL & PNTL ETPA Vision 2020 Restoration of independence National Development Plan Substantial oil revenue expected to come in Road Map SIPs NDP II Joint Assess-ment Mission Tokyo Donor C. Brussels Donor C. Lisbon Donor C. Canberra Donor C. Oslo Donor C. Dili Donor C. TSP I MDG TSP II MDG TSP III Workshop Report TLDPM TLDPM TLDPM UNAMET INTERFET followed by UNTAET UNMISET UNMISET consolidation phase? End of UNMISET mandate? Emergency relief, rehabilitation & reconstruction Transition Medium to long-term development 4

6 NATIONAL PLANNING FRAMEWORK Timor-Leste Vision 2020 National Development Plan (NDP) MDGs Planning & Budget Quarterly Review Matrices Prioritising & Sequencing Annual Action Plans Donor Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) Medium-Term Fiscal Framework Annual Budget Funding Bilateral and Multilateral Support TFET CFET TSP United Nations Assessed Contributions Direct services to communities from NGOs Implementation Government Ministries and Secretaries of State Private Sector and Business Groups Non-Governmental Organizations & Civil Society Bilateral and Multilateral Donors 5

7 TIMOR-LESTE VISION 2020 & MDGs Vision 2020 Timor-Leste will be a democratic and prosperous society with adequate food, shelter and clothing for all people and a sustainable environment, People will be literate, skilled, healthy and live a long and productive life, They will actively participate in economic, social and political development, promoting social equality, nationalism and unity, Production and employment will increase in all sectors, Living standards and services will improve for all East Timorese, and income will be fairly and equally distributed, The economy and finances of the state will be managed efficiently, transparently, and will be free from corruption, and The state will be based on the rule of law. MDG GOAL 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger GOAL 7: Ensure environmental sustainability GOAL 2: Achieve universal primary education GOAL 4: Reduce child mortality GOAL 5: Improve maternal health GOAL 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases GOAL 3: Promote gender equality and empower women GOAL 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger GOAL 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Millennium Declaration (Good Governance) Millennium Declaration (Good Governance) 6

8 INTERNATIOAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT Significant amount of resources have been provided Humanitarian assistance has been phased out 7

9 INTERNATIOAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT US$ Million Other donor support TFET CFET & Related Development and TA Humanitarian/Emergency Budgetary support Committed funds Expenditure /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 Source: The Government of Timor-Leste 8

10 INTERNATIOAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT % 100%= US$ 757 million Private sector & business 4 Water & sanitation 6 Basic infrastructure 9 Education & training 9 Other social Agency fees 2 2 Environment natural resources 0 Governance, Civil Service, Capacity 19 Programme & Budget Support 14 Health Care 9 Agriculture & Rural Development 10 Emergency relief & food security 16 Source: The Government of Timor-Leste 9

11 REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE PROJECTION Following the initial rehabilitation phase, external assistance is decreasing High population growth rate, requiring increasing government spending Low agricultural productivity and limited tax base Timor-Leste expects sizeable oil income, but the IMF estimates that the present value of Timor Sea revenue sustains annual expenditure of USD 55 million Substantial oil revenues from Timor Sea are estimated to start by 2007, some 3 years later than expected initially Therefore, the medium outlook is particularly difficult 10

12 MEDIUM TERM REVENUE AND RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS US$ Million Other donor funding TFET TSP Timor Sea Tax Revenue Domestic revenue & reserves Resource requirement (as per Road Map) Funding gap /03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 Source: The Government of Timor-Leste 11

13 LONG TERM REVENUE AND RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS US$ Million Oil revenue NDP 2007 BPOA 2010 MDG 2015 Vision 2020 Funding gap Total funding requirement Plus other domestic revenue / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /24 Sustainable use of oil revenue (IMF estimates) 12

14 REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE PROJECTION Even if Timor-Leste decides to borrow, the amount of concessional loans it can borrow from multilateral sources is extremely limited Timor-Leste is a small island country and vulnerable to exogenous shocks (trade, natural causes) Without continued and adequate external support, the past investment of the international community may be at stack Goal 8 of the Millennium Development Goals 13

15 TIMOR-LESTE AND BRUSSELS PROGRAMME OF ACTION Commitments 1. Fostering a people-centred policy framework 2. Good governance at national and international levels 3. Building human and institutional capacities 4. Building productive capacities to make globalization work for LDCs 5. Enhancing the role of trade in development 6. Reducing vulnerability and protecting the environment 7. Mobilizing financial resources Achievements / Opportunities Country-wide consultation that resulted in Vision 2020 and NDP process, Poverty Assessment & public dissemination, MDG report, strong aid coordination effort and database Civil Service Act, Office for Promotion of Equality, Office of the Inspector General, Human Rights Unit, Provedor, Justice Sector and Parliament Support programmes Adequate percentage of resources for primary education and basic health care, limit on spending for universities and hospitals, immunisation, vocational training, Census 2004 Massive rehabilitation and restoration of infrastructures but still facing daunting challenges, telecom network in place, private sector development still a challenge, agriculture a key ACP/Cotonou agreement signed May 2003, South-West Pacific Dialogue, Pacific Islands Forum (permanent official observer), Seeking observer status at ASEAN, ASYCUDA UNCCD signed, first GEF project, large water management programme started, capacity for environmental governance, rural energy and resource management a key, NDMO Domestic revenue and fee based services, Aid coordination - TSP, SIPs, IDA grants, bilateral and multilateral support, FDI potential 14

16 With the continued support of the international community, Timor-Leste can and will achieve its development goals. Thanks you! 15