Daily Market Update Report as on Tuesday, August 21, 2018 Gold prices turned higher in yesterday s session as improving risk appetite triggered a reversal of haven-seeking capital flows buoying the US Dollar, sending the currency lower and offering a lift to metal prices. Investors rosier disposition reflected hopes for de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. Yestetrday the US dollar index fell below 96 to the lowest in almost one week at 95.76 on Monday after US President Donald Trump scorned the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates. Trump told Reuters he was "not thrilled" with Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the bumps to the federal funds rate. He said he would criticise the Fed if it continues to elevate the cost of borrowing. Global gold-price softening trend to last for months, not years: WGC - The WGC sees the current softening trend in international gold prices lasting only for months rather than years, a top official said. In the short term, a reversal of much of the price weakness in the gold markets since June this year can be expected, John Reade, WGC, told in an interview. The weakness in international gold prices has nothing to do with the demand situation in the Indian gold market, which he said was expected to be quite orderly and stable this year. $700 Gold Is Possible - If you haven't noticed, no one is buying gold as a safe haven anymore. The current turmoil in Turkey, Argentina, China, and emerging markets has not moved gold at all. Investment demand continues to fall. Gold jewelry demand in India will fall at a much faster pace in the future. Gold bulls like to emphasize that people in many of the above countries buy gold to hedge against currency depreciation. However this time this has not happened. Yes, the people in the above countries who already had gold did offset the slide of the value of their currency, but for those who don't have gold, buying it is not easy when your currency depreciates. Turkey in particular comes to mind, since in dollars terms their GDP has fallen by about 50% over the past several months. Chinese ETF Investors Throw Gold a Lifeline - Just when you thought investors have given up on gold, the Chinese swooped in. On Friday, as prices of Bosera Gold Open-End ETF slumped to the lowest since December 2016, the exchange-traded fund attracted $68 million, the most in almost three months. The fund has taken in over $1 billion dollars this year, making it the secondmost popular ETF backed by a precious metal, behind Frankfurt-listed Xtrackers Physical Gold ETC, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bullion has been shunned by American speculators recently, with money managers boosting their net-short position to a record for a fourth straight week. Physical gold demand in India regained momentum in the week as jewellers stocked up after prices dipped to their lowest in over seven months, with lower prices attracting fresh buying and driving premiums higher in other major Asian hubs as well. Dealers in India, the second biggest gold consumer after China, were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce, compared with a discount of $1.5 last week. Jewellers are again becoming active in the market due to the price correction and good sales at the exhibition. India's gold imports rose for the first time in seven months in July to 75 tonnes, provisional data from metals consultancy GFMS showed. In China, premiums rose to $3 to $5 an ounce in the week from last week's $2-$3, while premiums in Hong- Kong were around 90 cents-$1.50 versus 70 cents to $1.30 previously. Date Gold* Silver* 20 Aug 2018 (Monday) 29565.00 3691 17 Aug 2018 (Friday) 29465.00 36875.00 16 Aug 2018 (Thursday) 2952 3679 The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 20 Aug 2018 (Monday) Page 1
Market View Open MCX GOLD 29465.00 High 29525.00 29643.00 Low 29423.00 29584.00 Close 29497.00 29541.00 Value Change 29439.00 % Change 2938 Margin 5.00 29337.00 Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) 147485 5914.00 8027.00 Daily Levels Resistance Support Outlook: Gold prices rose on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar, extending gains into a third session after U.S. Prev Value(Mln) 197.00 president Donald Trump said he was not thrilled with the U.S. Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. For the day prices a drop towards 29400-29350 will look to buy with a stoploss of below 29250 expecting prices to jump 52 Week High 31963.00 FEB - DEC towards 29520-29640 level. 52 Week Low 29268.00 20 Spread DEC - OCT Gold on MCX settled up 0.5% at 29497 as a strengthening currency in China made the metal cheaper for buyers in the world's biggest gold consumer. Gold has tumbled 13 percent from an April high as the dollar powered higher against the yuan and other currencies, raising the cost of dollar-priced bullion outside the United States. Physical gold demand in India regained momentum this week as jewellers stocked up after prices dipped to their lowest in over seven months, with lower prices attracting fresh buying and driving premiums higher in other major Asian hubs as well. Dealers in India, the second biggest gold consumer Hedge funds and money managers increased their net short position in COMEX gold contracts for the sixth straight week to another record in the week to Aug. 14, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Gold speculators added 13,991 contracts to their net short position, bringing it to 77,273 contracts, the largest since records became publicly available in 2006. Holdings of gold backed exchange traded funds, meanwhile, have fallen by 4.1 million ounces, or 7 percent, since late May as investors exited positions. Investors were looking ahead to Friday and a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole in which he might give clues about the pace of U.S. interest rate rises. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.73% to settled at 8027 while prices up 148 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 29439 and below same could see a test of 29380 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29541, a move above could see prices testing 29584. Page 2
INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change 1184.52 1190.61 1182.72 1190.34 5.78 Resistance 1200.95 1195.78 1193.06 1185.17 118 1177.28 Support Outlook: Gold price shows more bullish bias and moves near the EMA50, and the intraday bullish trend still suggested, waiting to test 1195.70 and might extend to 120 before turning back to resume the main bearish trend again. Note that breaking 1182.00 followed by 1173.75 levels will push the price to continue the main bearish trend within the bearish channel that its next target located at 1156.00. Gold settled up as a strengthening currency in China made the metal cheaper for buyers in the world's biggest gold consumer. Gold has tumbled 13 percent from an April high as the dollar powered higher against the yuan and other currencies, raising the cost of dollar-priced bullion outside the United States. Physical gold demand in India regained momentum this week as jewellers stocked up after prices dipped to their lowest in over seven months, with lower prices attracting fresh buying and driving premiums higher in other major Asian hubs as well. Dealers in India, the second biggest gold consumer Hedge funds and money managers increased their net short position in COMEX gold contracts for the sixth straight week to another record in the week to Aug. 14, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Gold speculators added 13,991 contracts to their net short position, bringing it to 77,273 contracts, the largest since records became publicly available in 2006. Holdings of gold backed exchange traded funds, meanwhile, have fallen by 4.1 million ounces, or 7 percent, since late May as investors exited positions. Investors were looking ahead to Friday and a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole in which he might give clues about the pace of U.S. interest rate rises. Technically now Gold is getting support at 1193.80 and below same could see a test of 1186.40 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1205.40, a move above could see prices testing 1212.20. Page 3
Rupee look cautious, depreciates below 70-per-dollar weighed down by the Turkish lira-led emerging market currency rout. The Indian rupee closed below the 70-per-dollar mark for the first time, lastweek after data released showed that trade deficit widened to the most in five years. The USD/INR fell 0.4 percent to close at 70.15 against the dollar. Key resistances are seen at 70.05 and 70.38 while initial supports are seen at 69.70 and 69.52. USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low 70.0300 70.0300 69.6550 69.8600 00 2.51 1753 1791001 2209018 70.4925 64.7000 Resistance 70.42 70.22 70.04 69.67 69.47 69.29 Support Spread SEP - AUG 0.2475 OCT - SEP 0.2650 Rupee gained on selling by foreign banks tracking a weak greenback amid likely overseas funds inflow from local stocks. Safe-haven dollar demand dropped tracking a global recovery in risk-appetite as US and China took steps to ease trade conflict with focus on discussion between the two largest economies due later this week. The greenback dropped against other major currencies as safe-haven demand receded on optimism over easing US-China tension with focus on discussion between the two largest economies due later this week. Chinese and US negotiators are planning talks to resolve their trade conflicts ahead of meetings in November, leading to improvement in global risk appetite following month-long row that has worn-out world markets. Sentiment picked up tracking positive cues offering hopes of resolving an escalating tariff war with China and the US holding lower-level trade talks this month. India s trade deficit widened to a more than five year high of $18.02 billion in July, the trade ministry said, driven largely by a surge in oil imports. Though merchandise exports rose 14.32 percent year-on-year in July, the trade deficit widened as oil imports surged 57.41 percent to $12.35 billion. In June, the trade deficit stood at $16.6 billion. Merchandise exports last month rose to $25.77 billion from a year ago, while imports rose 28.81 percent to $43.79 billion, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a statement. Technically now USDINR is getting support at 69.77 and below same could see a test of 69.525 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 70.145, a move above could see prices testing 70.275. Page 4
Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold 995 - Ahmedabad 3030 CMDTY Gold 999 - Ahmedabad 3043 CMDTY Gold 995 - Bangalore 3025 CMDTY Gold 999 - Bangalore 3040 CMDTY Gold 995 - Chennai 3027 CMDTY Gold 999 - Chennai 3042 CMDTY Gold 995 - Cochin 30275.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Cochin 30425.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Delhi 30275.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Delhi 30425.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Hyderabad 3025 CMDTY Gold 999 - Hyderabad 3040 CMDTY Gold 995 - Jaipur 3028 CMDTY Gold 999 - Jaipur 3040 CMDTY Gold 995 - Kolkata 3034 CMDTY Gold 999 - Mumbai 30435.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Mumbai 30285.00 * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver 999 - Ahmedabad 3770 MCX GOLD 04AUG2017 29497.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Bangalore 3795 MCX GOLD 05OCT2017 29694.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Chennai 3792 MCX GOLD 05DEC2017 29894.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Delhi 3795 MCX SILVER 05JUL2017 36778.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Hyderabad 3797 MCX SILVER 05SEP2017 3760 CMDTY Silver 999 - Jaipur 3794 MCX SILVER 05DEC2017 38412.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Kolkata 3810 CMDTY Silver 999 - Mumbai 38025.00 * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 26SEP2018 1196.00 CMDTY Gold London AM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD 28NOV2018 1200.30 CMDTY Gold London PM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 27SEP2018 29515.00 CMDTY Silver London FIX 16.45 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV2018 29692.00 DGCX SILVER 29AUG2018 14.77 Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 28NOV2018 14.77 Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 30AUG2018 40436.00 INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO 80.73 DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV2018 41189.00 MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO 80.20 Page 5
Report is prepared for information purposes only. Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. Mumbai. INDIA. Mobile: 9320096333 / 9619551030 Email: info@kediacommodity.com URL: www.kediaadvisory.com General Disclaimers: This Report is prepared and distributed by Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale through KSCRPL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportuni. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by KSCRPL to be reliable. IBJA and KSCRPL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of IBJA and KSCRPL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by KSCRPL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. KSCRPL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to KSCRPL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Page 6