12 January, 2018 FRO FROM RESEARCH DESK Currency Pair Close % Change Currency Pivot Levels OI % Change Prev. OI %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 63.77 0.05 3.53 1.42 63.8808 63.8167 63.7033 EURINR 76.25 0.37 2.7 3.67 76.3958 76.3017 76.1608 GBPINR 86.10 0.38 5.56 10.47 86.3017 86.1558 85.9217 JPYINR 57.14 0.17 6.75 6.81 57.2092 57.1433 57.0667 Foreign Currency Update * R= Resistance. S = Support Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index 91.66 0.49 EURUSD 1.2032 0.71 GBPUSD 1.3538 0.22 JPYUSD 111.27 0.15. USDINR 29 January, 2018 Expiry Option Update Options LTP %Chg OI %Chg OI CE 64.50 0.05 9.09 133969 5.14 CE 64.25 0.0825 5.71 128332 1.55 CE 64.00 0.1375 3.51 160852 4.82 CE 63.75 0.235 1.08 94316 9.29 PE 64.50 0.7275 11.01 93551 1.44 PE 64.25 0.56 7.44 57642 0.06 PE 64.00 0.3725 9.15 129919 0.98 PE 63.75 0.2175 12.12 75693 16.63 Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating negative move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate (January 11, 2018) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91 0731 4262718 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 63.7364 86.0123 76.1395 57.0300 India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR (January Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day & Technical Dollar/rupee ended up Thursday on buying by nationalized and private banks likely for oil importers while dollar on the back of weak factory inflation data, while the euro enjoyed solid support after the European Central Bank hinted that it could be gearing up to trim its massive monetary stimulus. Technical, USDINR remained volatile for second day and after hitting an intraday high 63.93 fluctuated around 63.75 63.90 levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating for indecisiveness. In near term, 64.05 will act as an immediate resistance and break above could extend the recent gain and it may test 64.20 and above. Else, pair expects to consolidate around 63.75. Recommendation: LTP Buy above Target Stop loss 63.77 64.05 64.25 64.50 63.85 Important Factor: U.S. CPI m/m. India IIP EURINR (January Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Euro/Rupee remained little changed Thursday as investors remained on the sideline ahead of release of US inflation figure scheduled later this week. Technical, EURINR retreated more than 0.37% yesterday and settled at 76.2550 levels. Pair failed to break its massive resistance 76.60. Intraday price action resulted in formation of bearish harami which appears for bearish outlook for EURINR. Recommendation LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 76.25 76.35 76.40 76.00 76.60 0 Daily Important Factor : French Final CPI m/m
GBPINR(January Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Pound/rupee remained little changed Thursday as investors remained on the sideline ahead of release of US inflation figure scheduled later this week. Technical, GBPINR retreated from the day high 86.39 and settled at 86.0675 levels. Pair failed to break its resistance 86.50 and formed a long bearish candle stick. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 85.90 and pair would need to break it in order to test 85.55 85.00 levels, else failure of the break could attract buying activities for the target 86.45 again. Recommendation : LTP Buy around Target Stop loss 86.10 86.10 86.50 85.90 Important Factor: NIL JPYINR ( January Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day & Technical Yen traded lower Thursday as investors covered their long positions after the pair fell sharply on fears that the Bank of Japan may reduce its asset purchase programme amid easing of concerns that US China may reduce its buying of US government bonds. Technical, JPYINR consolidated below 57.25 levels and settled at 57.1325, down 0.17%. Intraday price action resulted in formation of bearish harmai cross candle stick which creating probability for bearishness in JPYINR. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 57.30 above it only could expect to test 57.85 58.00. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell around 57.15 57.20 Stop loss 57.14 Target 56.80 56.60 57.30 Important data : Current Account
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today UK's trade in goods deficit with the rest of the world was the biggest in five months in November, rising to GBP12.2 billion from GBP11.7 billion in October. China trade balance for December: CNY 310bn surplus via Reuters calculation, official announcement (which came hours after Reuters calculation) is surplus of 362bn yuan. U.S. producer prices fell in December, adding to fears over the sluggish inflation outlook, according to official data released on Thursday. The Labor Department said that the producer price index fell 0.1% last month Minutes from the European Central Bank's December 13 14 policy meeting released Thursday revealed that members saw that risks to the current outlook were to the upside and may require a gradual shift in guidance in early 2018. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 5:20am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.70% 2.70% Neutral JPY Current Account 2.19T 2.44T Negative Tentative CNY Trade Balance 245B 264B Negative Tentative CNY USD Denominated Trade Balance 36.9B 40.2B Negative 10:30am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 55.20 55.10 Positive 1:15pm EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.30% 0.30% Neutral 12th 16th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 9.80% 12th 16th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 9.20% 9.10% Positive 12th 16th CNY New Loans 997B 1120B Negative 2:30pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.60% 0.50% Positive 7:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.10% 0.40% Negative USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10% Positive USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 1.00% Negative USD Retail Sales m/m 0.50% 0.80% Negative 8:30pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.30% 0.10% Positive Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 52.30 51.90 Positive 10:00pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks Impact: HighLowMedium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source investing.com, Reuters & ticker news.
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 e mail: research@indianivesh.in Website: www.indianivesh.in Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.