US (UNDERWEIGHT) Valuations remain high Downward revision to earnings forecasts persists Monetary policy realtively less supportive Recent rally relative to other markets looks March 211rebased 2 1 overstretched MSCI US 1963.4 () Yield () 2 A.1 5.9 1.9 215 A.4 2.1 2 E 17.1.5 2.2 US Earnings Revisions MSCI US (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x US (RHS) April 211 rebased.. 2 21 2 2 2 US Earn Rev (RHS) US vs DM Earn Rev (LHS) 1 MSCI USA (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x USA (RHS) 3.5 April 211 rebased Yield () April 211 rebased 3. 2. 2.3 2. 1.5 MSCI US (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x US (RHS) All charts source : Bloomberg as at 1.2 1. MSCI US (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x US (RHS)
EUROZONE (NEUTRAL) Economic data supportive stable growth outlook Market should benefit from easing of policy by ECB Policy divergence should continue to exert pressure on currency and suport exports March 211 rebased MSCI Eur x UK 13.5 () Yield () 2 A.2 6.2 3.3 215 A 17.3 13.4 3.2 2 E.2 11.9 3.6 Eurozone Earnings Revisions.. 2 21 2 2 2 Eur Earn Rev (RHS) Eur vs DM Earn Rev (LHS) MSCI Eur x UK (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x Eur (RHS) April 211 rebased 22 2 1 MSCI Eur x UK (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x Eur (RHS) 1. 1.6 April 211 rebased Yield () 5.5 4.5 April 211 rebased 1.3 1.1 3.5. MSCI Eur x UK (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x Eur (RHS) All charts source : Bloomberg as at 1.2 MSCI Eur (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x Eur (RHS)
UK (NEUTRAL) Heavy exposure of index to natural resources Support from above average dividend yield Fears of Brexit to hold market back for first half Outlook for monetary policy not very supportive MSCI UK 1793.5 () Yield () 2 A 19. 25. 4. 215 A.5 3.7 4.3 2 E.6 1.1 4.6..6 2 21 2 2 2 UK Earn Rev (RHS) UK Earnings Revisions UK vs DM Earn Rev (LHS).2.2 March 211 rebased MSCI UK (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x UK (RHS) April 211 rebased 22 2 1 MSCI UK (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x UK (RHS) 2.1 April 211 rebased Yield () 5.5 April 211 rebased 1 1. 4.5 1.6 3.5 1.3 MSCI UK (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x UK (RHS) All charts source : Bloomberg as at 1.2 MSCI UK (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x UK (RHS)
JAPAN (OVERWEIGHT) Corporate restructuring continues Potential for fiscal suport Though further yen strength will hurt profitability Relative valuations low MSCI JAP 3.2 () Yield () 2 A.9 7. 1. 215 A 15.2 6. 1.9 2 E. 1.6 2.3 Japan Earnings Revisions March 211 rebased ) 2 2 1 1 MSCI Japan (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x Japan (RHS) April 211 rebased.. 2 21 2 2 2 Japan Earn Rev (RHS) Japan vs DM Earn Rev (LHS) 1 6 MSCI Japan (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x Japan (RHS) April 211 rebased Yield () 3. April 211 rebased 1.5 1.3 1.. 2..5 MSCI Japan (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x Japan (RHS) 1.5 MSCI Japan (LHS) Relative to MSCI World x Japan (RHS) All charts source : Bloomberg as at 1.2
ASIA PAC x JAPAN (NEUTRAL) Chinese stimulus is a windfall to the whole area Valuations are at multi year lows Central bank easing supportive of risk assets March 211 rebased Earnings growth still a concern.3 MSCI ASIA PAC x JAP 44.2 () Yield () 2 A.1 4.3 3.1 215 A.1. 3.3 2 E.9 7.6 3.4 Earnings Revisions.6 MSCI Asia Pac x Jap (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) April 211 rebased..1.1.3.6 2 21 2 2 2 Asia Pac x Jap Earn Rev (RHS) Asia Pac x Jap vs Glob Earn Rev (LHS) 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 6 MSCI Asia Pac x Jap (LHS) All charts source : Bloomberg as at 1.2.2.2 April 211 rebased Relative to MSCI World (RHS)... 1. 6. MSCI Asia Pac x Jap (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) Yield () April 211 rebased 3. 135 3.3 115 2. 15 95 2.3 5 MSCI Asia Pac x Jap (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS)
BRAZIL (UNDERWEIGHT) Outlook clouded by political turmoil Weaker GDP growth opens an opportunity for cuts in interest rates Market rebound may have discounted neart term.3.1.1 positive news MSCI BRAZIL 17.3 () Yield () 2 A.9. 4.5 215 A..6 4.5 2 E 13.6. 3.2 Earnings Revisions.1.5.3.9 2 21 2 2 2 Brazil Earn Rev (RA).7.3 Brazil vs EM Earn Rev (LHS) March 211 rebased 3 MSCI Brazil (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) April 211 rebased 22 1 6 MSCI Brazil (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) 1.9 1.7 1.4 April 211 rebased Yield () 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.4 April 211 rebased 155 1.2 6.9 4 MSCI Brazil (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) All charts source : Bloomberg as at 1.2 2.9 15 2.4 1.9 MSCI Brazil (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS)
RUSSIA (UNDERWEIGHT) Sanctions and a low oil price remain a concern May benefit from renewed inflows to emerging markets Valuations are low, though have been for some time Political risk remains high Rebased ().3 MSCI RUSSIA 47.4 () Yield () 2 A 4.4 39.9 5.9 215 A 5.7 22.2 5.1 2 E 7.1 4.3 4.6 Earnings Revisions.6 1.2.7 3 MSCI Russia (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) Rebased () 1.2 6.3.3 4 6.6. 2 21 2 2 2 Russia Earn Rev (RHS) Russia vs EM Earn Rev (LHS) Rebased () 1.4 1.2.9.7 3 MSCI Russia (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) All charts source : Bloomberg as at 1.2 2 4 MSCI Russia (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) Yield () Rebased () 6. 3 5. 33 4. 2 3. 23 1 2. 1. MSCI Russia (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS)
INDIA (OVERWEIGHT) Prospect for interest rate cuts GDP growth one of the strongest Market is awaiting a more positive profit trend Low oil prices help twin deficits and policy support March 211 rebased 1.5.3.1.1 MSCI INDIA 96.7 () Yield () 2 A.5 11.2 1.5 215 A 2.7 13.3 1.4 2 E 17.3 17.2 1.5 Earnings Revisions.2 MSCI India (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) April 211 rebased 22.3.2.5 2 21 2 2 2 India Earn Rev (RHS) India vs EM Earn Rev (LHS) 1 MSCI India (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) 3.3 April 211 rebased Yield () 1.7 April 211 rebased 3. 2. 1.4 2.3 1.2 2. 6 MSCI India (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) All charts source : Bloomberg as at 1.2.9 MSCI India (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS)
CHINA (NEUTRAL).2 Supportive monetary and fiscal policy are key to the economic and markets outlook Improving macro picture restoring investor confidence Yuan devaluation remains an overhang.1 MSCI CHINA 29.5 () Yield () 2 A.5 2.1 1.5 215 A.9 3.3 1.3 2 E.2 5.7 1.7 Earnings Revisions.2.5 2 21 2 2 2 China Earn Rev (RHS).2 China vs EM Earn Rev (LHS) March 211 rebased 1 6 4 MSCI China (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) April 211 rebased 2 24 2 4 2 MSCI China (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) 3. April 211 rebased Yield () 3. April 211 rebased 2 3.3 2. 2.3 1. 6 4 2. 1. 2 1.3 2 MSCI China (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS) All charts source : Bloomberg as at 1.2. MSCI China (LHS) Relative to MSCI World (RHS)