Three Big Global Questions
|
|
- Adelia Small
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Three Big Global Questions Nick Kounis Head Macro & Financial Markets Research Marine Money Athens 14 October 2015
2 Will developed economies continue to recover? 2
3 US consumer making a comeback Job gains, 3m mav. 000s Unemployment rate, % , Nonfarm payrolls (lhs) Unemployment rate (rhs) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 3
4 Eurozone bank loans more available Net tightening of conditions, balance Tighter Easier Large firms SMEs Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ECB Bank Lending Survey 4
5 The fall in oil prices is a positive for DMs Gain from USD 50 drop in oil prices, % GDP JP EZ US UK Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics, BP 5
6 ECB and BoJ to step up monetary stimulus Mario and Haruhiko taking over from Janet. 6
7 Falling like a brick DM exports to BRICS Exports to the BRIC countries from the US and eurozone, % yoy US Eurozone Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN AMRO Group Economics 7
8 Are emerging markets set for a new crisis? EM 8
9 Turn in sentiment triggers net capital outflows Net portfolio inflows into EMs, USD bn Equity flows Debt flows Source: Institute of International Finance 9
10 Commodities and EM assets fall in unison Index, 1 Jan 2000 = 100 Index (reversed scale) Commodity index (lhs) MSCI-EM (lhs) EM FX index Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN AMRO Group Economics 10
11 EM fundamentals better than in 1990s crisis FX reserves / short-term external debt Emerging Asia Emerging Europe Latin America Source: EIU 11
12 Fed signalling rate hike cycle will be modest Cumulative rate hikes in first year after first increase, % and Fed delay to 2016 now likely e Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, FOMC projections 12
13 Tighter financial conditions holding back EM growth Real M1 money supply growth, % yoy Global Developed Emerging EM real money supply stagnating Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN AMRO Group Economics 13
14 Is China heading for a hard landing? 14
15 China needs to deal with a debt mountain Total debt to GDP, % Consumer Government FIs Companies Source: McKinsey Global Institute
16 China s great transformation 16
17 China s demand for commodities is slowing Commodity import volumes, 12m rolling, % yoy Copper ore (lhs) Iron ore (lhs) Crude oil (lhs) Bron: Thomson Reuters Datastream 17
18 China trying to engineer a soft landing % Chinese government s GDP growth target % 2016? 6.5 % 18
19 Official data point to ongoing China slowdown % yoy % yoy Industrial production (lhs) Fixed investment (rhs) Retail sales (lhs) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 19
20 Can we trust the official GDP numbers? % yoy GDP indicator points to 6.6% rather than 7% Real GDP growth (official) Monthly GDP indicator Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg 20
21 China monetary conditions have turned Index Tighter Easier % yoy Monetary Conditions Index (lhs) Monthly GDP ind. (rhs) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 21
22 China: property prices stabilising Newly-built residential building 70 big/medium cities, % yoy Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 22
23 Implications for the outlook 23
24 Moderate global growth with EM-DM divergence Manufacturing PMI surveys Developed Emerging World Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 24
25 Trade normally outstrips production not recently % yoy World trade Global industrial production Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 25
26 Oil markets facing supply glut Barrels per day, millions Demand Supply Source: International Energy Administration, ABN AMRO Group Economics 26
27 Modest global growth Economic outlook Global GDP US Eurozone Emerging Asia China World trade Rates and FX Spot US 3-M Libor rate US 10Y Treasury EUR/USD Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics 27
28 Important information The views and opinions expressed in this document may be subject to change at any given time. Individuals are advised to seek professional guidance prior to making any investments. This material is provided to you for information purposes only and should not be construed as an advice nor as an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Before investing in any product of ABN AMRO Bank N.V., you should obtain information on various financial and other risks and any possible restrictions that you and your investments activities may encounter under applicable laws and regulations. If, after reading the presentation, you consider investing in a product, you are advised to discuss such an investment with your relationship manager or personal advisor and check whether this product considering the risks involved- is appropriate within your investment activities. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this document is correct but does not accept liability for any misprints. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. reserves the right to make amendments to this material. 28
Three Big Global Questions
Three Big Global Questions Nick Kounis Head Macro & Financial Markets Research Marine Money Singapore 22 September 2015 Will developed economies continue to recover? 2 US consumer making a comeback Job
More informationGlobal Economy and World Trade
Global Economy and World Trade Nick Kounis Head Macro & Financial Markets Research Capital Link Greek Shipping Forum, Athens 24 February 2015 Worries about the global economy continue 2 The next leg of
More informationThe Outlook for the Global Economy and World Trade
The Outlook for the Global Economy and World Trade Capital Link Greek Shipping Forum 2014 Nick Kounis Head Macro Research Athens 24 February A string of disappointing US data recently ABN AMRO US Economic
More informationThe Outlook for the Global Economy and World Trade
The Outlook for the Global Economy and World Trade Capital Link Invest in International Shipping Forum 2014 Nick Kounis Head Macro Research New York, 20 March Evaluating the risks from Crimea tensions
More informationAsia Watch. Trade tensions risk to solid outlook. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions.
Asia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 1 March 1 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 5 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com Trade tensions risk to solid outlook Growth EM Asia up
More informationAsia Watch. The US giveth, the US taketh away. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions.
Asia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 1 June 18 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 68 85 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com The US giveth, the US taketh away Growth momentum
More informationIndonesia Watch. Plenty of risks, but real crisis not likely. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions
Indonesia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 2 August 218 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 2 628 852 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com Plenty of risks, but real crisis not
More informationMACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
MACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 18 INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND DYNAMIC MARKETS TEAM, MULTI ASSET GROUP GLOBAL SHARES CONSTRAINED BY TRADE WAR FEARS BUT AUSTRALIAN SHARES RELATIVELY RESILIENT 5 Australia -
More informationNOVEMBER 2018 Summary global growth is above average but slowing
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11.AM THURSDAY 1 NOVEMBER 1 THE FORWARD VIEW GLOBAL NOVEMBER 1 Summary global growth is above average but slowing While global growth remains above average, available GDP data for Q point
More informationChina Watch. Growth slows after tightening. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Insights.abnamro.nl/en. 15 May 2017
China Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 1 May 217 Growth slows after tightening Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 2 628 82 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com Markets have turned
More information4 th Quarter 2015 Webcast. Global Macro Overview. Presented by. Francis A. Scotland Co-Director of Global Macro Research
th Quarter 21 Webcast Global Macro Overview Presented by Francis A. Scotland Co-Director of Global Macro Research 2 Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved. The views expressed
More informationGlobal Economy & Dry Bulk Outlook
Global Economy & Dry Bulk Outlook Dry Bulk Shipping Outlook dry bulk Coking coal Crude steel production Import & Export China & Global economy Trends and forecasts Iron ore Economic indicators Iron ore
More informationThe Global Economy Modest Improvement
Title line 1 Title line 2 The Global Economy Modest Improvement Name David Katsnelson, Director Title, date RISI Macroeconomic Service 3 June, 2015 1 Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. China 3. External Environment
More informationThe Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
The Global Economy Heightened drisks RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. China Slowing, Not Crashing
More informationManagement Report. Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A.
Management Report Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A. Summary of Management Report International Economic Framework The year under review was marked by a slowdown in global economic activity and GDP
More information2017 Annual Conference. Thursday, 8 June 2017
217 Annual Conference Thursday, 8 June 217 The global markets impact on Australia Thursday, 8 June 217 QIC SLIDES FOR FRONTIER Katrina King 8 th June, 217 GLOBAL INTERACTIONS ARE IMPORTANT The pace of
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook Brittle Strength
Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength RISI North American Conference October 2017 Lasse Sinikallas Director Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot Steady 2. North America Performing 3. China In Transition
More informationEconomic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015
Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone 2.0 1.5
More informationDevelopments in Emerging East Asia Bond Markets
Developments in Emerging East Asia Bond Markets Donghyun Park, Principal Economist Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, Asian Development Bank Overview The outlook for economic growth
More informationLatin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018
Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationUBS Forum. Sharper opinions, smarter decisions
Thursday, February 5 2015 UBS Forum. Sharper opinions, smarter decisions Madrid Milan London Frankfurt Zurich Chief Investment Office WM The Diverging World CIO Year Ahead 2015 Bill O'Neill Head of Investment
More informationThe Global Economy Heightened Risks
The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI North American Conference 5 October, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. USA Steady Growth 3. Europe Growing Slowly 4. China
More informationPRIVATE BANKING PRIVATE BANKING
US (UNDERWEIGHT) Valuations remain high Downward revision to earnings forecasts persists Monetary policy realtively less supportive Recent rally relative to other markets looks March 211rebased 2 1 overstretched
More informationBrazil: the adjustment continues, GDP is contracting and inflation is taking off
Brazil: the adjustment continues, GDP is contracting and inflation is taking off Enestor Dos Santos BBVA Research Principal Economist: Emerging Economies Unit Brazil Economic Outlook 2T25 Madrid, 3 June
More informationGLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017
GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,
More informationEconomic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member
Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member This material must be read in conjunction with the disclosure statement. 9 April 2018 PRESENTED BY: MARKUS SCHOMER Chief Economist PineBridge Investments
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end
More informationAUGUST 2018 Summary growth remains above trend, but risks a concern
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11.3AM THURSDAY 1 AUGT 1 THE FORWARD VIEW GLOBAL AUGT 1 Summary growth remains above trend, but risks a concern As expected, after hitting a soft patch in Q1, major advanced economy growth
More informationGlobal economic issues and the impact on Shipping
1st Annual Marine Money Cyprus Forum Global economic issues and the impact on Shipping Andreas Assiotis, PhD 26 April 2017 Table of contents 1 2 3 4 5 Economic Fundamentals and Global Drivers 3 Global
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationFixed income market update
April 1, 216 Fixed income market update Taplin, Canida & Habacht, LLC BMO Global Asset Management 11 Brickell Bay Drive Suite 21 Miami, Florida 33131 p 35-379-21 f 35-379-4452 tchinc.com Fixed income market
More informationThe Global Economy Heightened Risks
The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI Latin American Conference 16 August, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. Latin America Some Improvement
More informationFigure 1 Global Economic Data
Global perspective Economic Research Research Department ARC Research Team Tel: 966 11 211 9370, devassyp@alrajhi-capital.com Global economic data improves, but outlook remains uncertain Medium-term risks
More informationNational Economic Outlook
National Economic Outlook MSBO Financial Strategies Conference January 17, 2018 Presented by: Kyle Jones, Director of Portfolio Strategies PFM Asset Management LLC One Keystone Plaza, Suite 300 N. Front
More information> Macro Investment Outlook
> Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9
More informationSpain Economic Outlook Q FIRST QUARTER. Economic Outlook. Spain. Economic Outlook. Spain
Economic Outlook FIRST QUARTER 2016 Spain Economic Outlook Spain The world economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in the past and with more risks Spain's economy has started 2016 with
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationThe decline of commodity prices: A matter of concern?
The decline of commodity prices: A matter of concern? Oil and metals prices are down significantly this year For oil this seems to be predominantly driven by supply factors The decline of metal prices
More informationGlobal economic outlook: Are we headed for another global recession? Sarah Hunter Head of Americas macro consulting
Global economic outlook: Are we headed for another global recession? Sarah Hunter Head of Americas macro consulting shunter@oxfordeconomics.com 10 th March 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights Baseline
More informationMULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2
10 2 3 6 8 9 13 14 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight
More informationPM Outlook Platinum to outperform palladium. Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets Research. Insights.abnamro.nl/en.
PM Outlook 218 Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets Research 5 December 217 Georgette Boele Senior Precious Metals & Diamond Analyst Tel: +31 2 629 7789 georgette.boele@nl.abnamro.com Platinum to
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 15, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The European central bank (ECB) has indicated it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, according to the ECB s minutes of December meeting
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationDECEMBER Market and economic overview
DECEMBER 2016 Market and economic overview The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as widely expected, left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at the December 2016 Board meeting. The Australian dollar was weaker
More informationThe State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets
The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets Nick Bennenbroek The State Of Global FX Markets Nick Bennenbroek Head of Currency Strategy June 2015 Please see the disclosure appendix of this publication
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationWorld 3,6 3,8 3,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 Source : BNP Paribas Group Economic Research (e: Estimates & forecasts,)
In the US, business surveys deliver upbeat signals at the start of 218, especially in the manufacturing sector. The US economy should continue to do well, supported by tax cuts, strong external demand
More informationAPPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial
More informationThe global economy and the Fiji dollar
The global economy and the Fiji dollar David de Garis Senior Treasury Economist Fiji, February 25 Today s talk 2 The global economy Outlook for major currencies and interest rates Australia and New Zealand:
More informationTaiwan chart book Policy remains neutral
Economics Taiwan chart book Policy remains neutral Group Research October 18 Ma Tieying Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 687881 violetleeyh@dbs.com Charts of the month Export
More informationFINANCIAL FORECASTS ECONOMIC RESEARCH. January No. 1. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in 2016?
ECONOMIC RESEARCH January - No. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in? We believe investors will be faced with the following characteristics in euro-zone financial markets
More informationEmerging 4,5 4,8 4,9 China 6,9 6,4 6,5 1,6 2,3 2,5 India 6,6 7,5 7,8 3,6 4,4 4,6 Brazil 1,0 3,0 2,5 3,5 3,5 3,7 Russia 1,7 1,6 1,5 3,7 4,0 4,4
In the US, business surveys deliver upbeat signals at the start of 218, especially in the manufacturing sector. The US economy should continue to do well, supported by tax cuts, strong external demand
More informationJULY 2018 Summary trade risks to the fore
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11.3AM THURSDAY 1 JULY 18 THE FORWARD VIEW GLOBAL JULY 18 Summary trade risks to the fore The imposition on July of a % tariff by the on around $3b of imports from China, immediately followed
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly Launch Jakarta, March 18, Jim Brumby Sector Manager and Lead Economist
Indonesia Economic Quarterly Launch Jakarta, March 18, 214 Jim Brumby Sector Manager and Lead Economist MARCH 214 IEQ: INVESTMENT IN FLUX Fixed investment: subdued, and risks Risks to fiscal space needed
More informationSince 4Q16, the Fed has just held one meeting without a rate increase skipping only Sept Their challenges are numerous.
Monetary Policy All of the central banks face major challenges. Too high, too low, avoiding inversion and in the case of the Bank of Japan, how to conduct policy at all. US Federal Reserve ECONOMIC & MARKET
More information2016 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents
216 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents January 13, 216 MODERATED BY: Celia Dallas Chief Investment Strategist Wade O Brien Managing Director, Global Investment Research Christopher Hunter Managing Director,
More informationMarkets Overview Pulse & Calendar Economic scenario
Eurozone growth is robust Sentiment indicators and the drivers of final demand all point towards ongoing strength At some point however, growth will slow down Whether this will cause a jump in uncertainty
More informationFIXED INCOME STRATEGY
12 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY FIXED INCOME STRATEGY GLOBAL FIXED INCOME FIXED INCOME DEVELOPED DM Government DM Credit EMERGING EM Government -- - N + ++ Our overall fixed income strategy is to stay
More informationSouth Korea chart book Pre-emptively dovish
Economics South Korea chart book Pre-emptively dovish Group Research 5 September 1 Ma Tieying Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +5 751 violetleeyh@dbs.com Charts of the month Exports
More informationIn the US The Euro area, e 2019 e e 2019 e Advanced 2,3 2,4 1,7 1,8 2,1 1,9 Euro Area 2,6 2,2 1,7 1,5 1,8 1,8
In the US, activity wasn t as dynamic as expected at the start of the year, however this could be due to temporary factors Economy should continue to expand at a 3 percent path or so in 218, thanks to
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationWhat s next? A macro view of 2018
What s next? A macro view of 2018 Hong Kong 12 January 2018 John Greenwood Chief Economist, Invesco Ltd This document is intended only for 2018 Invesco Roadshow in Hong Kong. This is not an invitation
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationTurkey / Markets Research 11 January 2018
Turkey / Markets Research 11 January 2018 Global Strategy 2018 The year of inflation? Okan Ertem, FRM Global economic growth is supported with positive output gap Output gap returns back into positive
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationCredit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update
Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update ROBIN J. ANDERSON, Ph.D. SENIOR ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS June 2015 All expressions of opinion and predictions in this report are subject
More informationGDP Growth Inflation e 2018 e e 2018 e Advanced 1,6 2,1 1,9 0,8 1,6 1,7 Euro Area 1,7 2,1 1,6 0,2 1,5 1,1
GDP Growth % 216 217 e 218 e 216 217 e 218 e Advanced 1,6 2,1 1,9,8 1,6 1,7 United-States 1,6 2,3 2,6 1,3 1,9 2,3 Japan 1, 1,7 1, -,1,4,6 United-Kingdom 1,8 1,5 1,,6 2,8 2,8 Euro Area 1,7 2,1 1,6,2 1,5
More informationIn the US The Euro area GDP Growth Inflation e 2018 e e 2018 e Advanced
In the US, in spite of a weak 217 start, the US economy should continue to do well, supported by the housing market, external demand This could have a rather inflationary impact since the economy is already
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen
More informationIn the US The Euro area, GDP Growth Inflation e 2020 e e 2020 e Advanced
In the US, activity has been buoyant so far, largely thanks to tax cuts. For the foreseeable period, a slowdown is more than a possibility Interest rates hikes and tariffs increases on worth $3bn of imports
More informationBank Austria Economics & Market Analysis Austria. Austrian Economy. May
Bank Austria Economics & Market Analysis Austria Austrian Economy May http://economicresearch-e.bankaustria.at Austrian Economy Author: Walter Pudschedl Imprint Published by UniCredit Bank Austria AG Schottengasse
More informationMonthly Economic Insight
Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.
More informationM&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager. November 2015
M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager November 2015 Agenda Macro update & government bonds Emerging market corporate bonds Fund positioning Emerging markets risks today Risks Slowing
More informationSummary of macroeconomic forecasts GDP Growth Inflation Curr. Account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP
ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Summary of macroeconomic forecasts GDP Growth Inflation Curr. Account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP % 216 e 217 e 218 e 216 e 217 e 218 e 216 e 217 e 218 e 216 e 217 e 218 e
More informationASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack
ASIAN ECONOMIES Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Amy Auster Senior Economist Melbourne 2 May 25 E-mail: austera@anz.com Internet: http://www.anz.com/go/economics 1 Major revisions to
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 22, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The U.S economy and inflation expanded at a Modest to Moderate pace during December 2017, while wages continued to push higher according to the Federal
More informationMarket Outlook 6 12 June 2016
Highlight Treasury Division TMU 0 :(66) 202 TMU 02 :(66) 202 222 TMU 0 :(66) 202 Market Outlook 6 2 June 206 Last Week: The US dollar dropped against major currencies on Friday (/6) after the nonfarm payrolls
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
Global Investment Outlook Ewen Cameron Watt June 16 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY - UKRSM-16 Asset performance YTD Sterling Returns Brent Crude Oil Gold German Bund ML Global High Yield JPM EMBI Emerging
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 31, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
More informationEconomic and market snapshot for January 2016
From left to right: Herman van Papendorp (Head of Macro Research and Asset Allocation), Sanisha Packirisamy (Economist) Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 Global economic developments United
More informationNZ FIXED INTEREST FUND JUNE 2018
NZ FIXED INTEREST FUND JUNE 2018 Contents 1. Economic and market recap 3 2. Performance and attribution 10 3. Attribution 17 4. Strategy 26 Appendix 1. Portfolio composition 30 1. ECONOMIC AND MARKET RECAP
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More informationEurozone - FX EUR/USD
1 Weekly FX 9 September 2013 Eurozone - FX EUR/USD 2-Y spread Germany-US EUR/USD 0.1 1.40-0.1 1.35-0.2 1.30-0.3 1.25-0.4 1.20 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 2-yr spread Germany-US EUR/USD (rhs) Source: Thomson
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationMonthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy
MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy December 7 Released on December 7 Outlook for Australia Economic Activity Actual
More informationEconomic Outlook. DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months
Economic Outlook DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months GDP growth will be modest at approximately 2.5%, but the economy will experience periods of unstable growth. Consumer confidence will improve as
More informationMarkit economic overview
Markit Economics Markit economic overview Global economic growth weakest since late-2012 April 13 th 2016 Global economic growth weakest since late-2012 Global economic growth was running at its weakest
More informationSovereign Credit Outlook. Richard Francis Director, Latin America Sovereigns Corficolombiana Conference December 5, 2018
Sovereign Credit Outlook Richard Francis Director, Latin America Sovereigns Corficolombiana Conference December 5, 218 Agenda Global Perspective Regional Overview Sovereign Ratings and Recent Actions Colombia
More informationQ QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVES
Q2-219 QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVES Tavistock Wealth - Investment Team Outlook Christopher Peel - John Leiper - Andrew Pottie - Sekar Indran - Alex Livingstone India Turnbull - Jonah Levy - James Peel Welcome
More informationGlobal Market Outlook 2018
Global Market Outlook 2018 Belinda Boa Head of Active Investments Asia Pacific and CIO of Emerging Markets Fundamental Active Equity, BlackRock January 2018 FOR PROFESSIONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy April 2017 Stock Markets likely to Grind Higher as Expectations of Strong Earnings Growth & Improving Global GDP
More informationMonetary Policy Divergence and Global Financial Stability: From the Perspective of Demand and Supply of Safe Assets
Monetary Policy Divergence and Global Financial Stability: From the Perspective of Demand and Supply of Safe Assets January, 7 Speech at a Meeting Hosted by the International Bankers Association of Japan
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Strengthening of the pickup in global growth, with GDP expected to increase 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone recovery is upholding
More informationUS Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time
US Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time Economic research note December 17, 2015 The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) has, finally and unanimously, started the monetary policy normalization process by
More informationMarket Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationChina Briefing. International > Economics 17 April 2014
International > Economics 17 April 21 China Briefing There were few surprises in the latest Chinese data release, with the weakening trends evident since the latter part of last year continuing into the
More informationGlobal Sovereign Conference Singapore 6 September
Global Sovereign Conference Singapore September 1 --- --- Politics, Populism and the Global Economy Brian Coulton Chief Economist --- --- Key Messages World economy muddling along but global macro risks
More informationINTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
2018 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES Justin Thomson Portfolio Manager, CIO, Equity November 14, 2017 FOR 2018 GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK PRESS BRIEFING. PROVIDED TO DESIGNATED MEMBERS
More information