Three Big Global Questions
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1 Three Big Global Questions Nick Kounis Head Macro & Financial Markets Research Marine Money Singapore 22 September 2015
2 Will developed economies continue to recover? 2
3 US consumer making a comeback Job gains, 3m mav. 000s Unemployment rate, % , Nonfarm payrolls (lhs) Unemployment rate (rhs) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 3
4 Eurozone bank loans more available Net tightening of conditions, balance Tighter Easier Large firms SMEs Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ECB Bank Lending Survey 4
5 The fall in oil prices is a positive for DMs Gain from USD 50 drop in oil prices, % GDP JP EZ US UK Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics, BP 5
6 ECB and BoJ to step up monetary stimulus Mario and Haruhiko taking over from Janet. 6
7 Falling like a brick DM exports to BRICS Exports to the BRIC countries from the US and eurozone, % yoy US Eurozone Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN AMRO Group Economics 7
8 Are emerging markets set for a new crisis? 8
9 Turn in sentiment triggers net capital outflows Net portfolio inflows into EMs, USD bn Equity flows Debt flows Source: Institute of International Finance 9
10 Commodities and EM assets fall in unison Index, 1 Jan 2000 = 100 Index (reversed scale) Commodity index (lhs) MSCI-EM (lhs) EM FX index Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN AMRO Group Economics 10
11 EM fundamentals better than in 1990s crisis but FX reserves / short-term external debt Emerging Asia Emerging Europe Latin America Source: EIU 11
12 Fed signalling rate hike cycle will be modest Cumulative rate hikes in first year after first increase, % e Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, FOMC projections 12
13 Tighter financial conditions holding back EM growth Real M1 money supply growth, % yoy Global Developed Emerging EM real money supply stagnating Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ABN AMRO Group Economics 13
14 Is China heading for a hard landing? 14
15 China needs to deal with a debt mountain Total debt to GDP, % Consumer Government FIs Companies Source: McKinsey Global Institute
16 China s great transformation 16
17 Official data point to ongoing China slowdown % yoy % yoy Industrial production (lhs) Fixed investment (rhs) Retail sales (lhs) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 17
18 Can we trust the official GDP numbers? % yoy GDP indicator points to 6.6% rather than 7% Real GDP growth (official) Monthly GDP indicator Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg 18
19 China monetary conditions have turned Index Tighter Easier % yoy Monetary Conditions Index (lhs) Monthly GDP ind. (rhs) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 19
20 China: property prices stabilising Newly-built residential building 70 big/medium cities, % yoy Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 20
21 Implications for the outlook 21
22 Moderate global growth with EM-DM divergence Manufacturing PMI surveys Developed Emerging World Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 22
23 Modest global growth Economic outlook Global GDP US Eurozone Emerging Asia China World trade Rates and FX Spot US 3-M Libor rate US 10Y Treasury EUR/USD Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics 23
24 China s demand for commodities is slowing Commodity import volumes, 12m rolling, % yoy Copper ore (lhs) Iron ore (lhs) Crude oil (lhs) Bron: Thomson Reuters Datastream 24
25 Oil markets facing supply glut Barrels per day, millions Demand Supply Source: International Energy Administration, ABN AMRO Group Economics 25
26 Important information The views and opinions expressed in this document may be subject to change at any given time. Individuals are advised to seek professional guidance prior to making any investments. This material is provided to you for information purposes only and should not be construed as an advice nor as an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Before investing in any product of ABN AMRO Bank N.V., you should obtain information on various financial and other risks and any possible restrictions that you and your investments activities may encounter under applicable laws and regulations. If, after reading the presentation, you consider investing in a product, you are advised to discuss such an investment with your relationship manager or personal advisor and check whether this product considering the risks involved- is appropriate within your investment activities. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this document is correct but does not accept liability for any misprints. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. reserves the right to make amendments to this material. 26
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