AUSTRALIA Macquarie s bottom-up market & sector EPS growth (%) Pro-rated to June FY11A FY1E FY13E Consensus market & sector EPS growth (%) Earnings summary to date Jun HY1 Earnings/dividend surprises to date Source: IBES, Macquarie Research, August 1 Current 1 yr fwd All Companies 1.9-3.5 8. 8.3 Banks 1..9 1. 1.5 Property Trusts -1.8 4..4.8 Resources 41.4-15.3 13.7 14.5 Industrials (All Cos ex Res, LPTs, Banks) -1.8 1.6 11.7 11.4 Pro-rated to June FY11A FY1E FY13E Current 1 yr fwd All Companies 1.9-3.1 14. 11.5 Banks 1..9 4.3.4 Property Trusts -1.8 1.5 4.8 3. Resources 41.4-17. 7.7 4.6 Industrials (All Cos ex Res, LPTs, Banks) -1.8 5.6 16.5 13.6 F cast Actual Diff Diff $Am $Am $Am % 1 ex Res, LPTs, & Banks^ 1,7 9,99-15 -. Ex1 ex Res, LPTs, & Banks 1,99,8 18.9 Resources^^ 8,88 8,715-93 -1.1 Banks** 3,594 3,594. Listed Property,56,495-11 -.4 All Aust stocks^ 6,95 6,84-11 -.4 NZ stocks^ (NZ$m) 639 639 1.1 *Earnings are free-float adjusted. **For only those stocks reporting: BEN and CBA ^ Includes Telecom NZ Number Earnings Dividend reported + ve -ve + ve -ve 1 ex Res, LPTs, & Banks^ 8 1 1 Ex1 ex Res, LPTs, & Banks 7 1 Resources 6 3 1 Banks Listed Property 3 1 All Aust stocks^ 4 6 3 1 NZ stocks^ * Earnings surprise: adjusted net profit > 5% from forecast at 19 Jul 1 * Dividend surprise: > 5% from forecast (forecasts as at 19 Jul 1) ^ Includes Telecom NZ Reporting season update #1 Hold the line Event We analyse profit results for the JunHY1 reporting season to date. 4 companies have reported thus far in the August corporate reporting season (as at COB 9 Aug), representing only 11% of companies to report by number and 13% by market capitalisation. Impact Macquarie s aggregated All Companies FY1 EPSg (Jun pro-rated) forecast remains largely unchanged at -3.5% at the end of the first full week of reporting season. With FY13E firmly in focus, we note that FY13E EPSg currently sits at +8.% (-.8ppts from our estimate at 19-Jul). The downgrade momentum continues at the Market and sector level as highlighted by our weak revisions ratio, which remains firmly below 1.x at week s close (.8x). Outlook In context of the rapid and heavy downgrades seen across the Market (and for all major sectors except LPTs) in the prelude to reporting season, the delivery of weak aggregated FY1 EPSg forecasts will likely be positively received by investors. We note however the clear distinction between stocks that have outperformed during this first week of reporting season and those that have underperformed following their results. Stocks that delivered high-quality results to (or above) their EPSg expectations including RMD, CPU and BKN have been rewarded by investors through share price performance. There were also a number of stocks that delivered to headline results however disappointed either on quality and/or outlook including: TCL, TLS, TAH and SGP. These stocks have all delivered large relative performance to the market over the last 1 months and as a result, the disappointment to their perceived stable EPSg outlook has not gone unnoticed by investors. This puts earnings certainty stocks such as AGK, TWE, WOW, CCL and stocks seen to offer defensive yield such as SKI, APA, SYD, DUE, CFX, WBC, CBA, NAB, ANZ and WDC in the spotlight. These stocks have also outperformed the market considerably over the last 1 months and will be under pressure to deliver income certainty. Further, with the majority of stocks still to report their JunHY1 results over the next few weeks, we still believe there are further downside risks to FY1E (and FY13E) EPSg estimates. 1 August 1 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
<1= Net downgrades >1= Net upgrades <1= Net downgrades >1= Net upgrades <1= Net downgrades >1= Net upgrades <1= Net downgrades >1= Net upgrades Macquarie Private Wealth FY1 EPSg forecasts largely unchanged and too early for FY13 revision At the end of the first full week of reporting season, however, FY1E EPSg forecasts remain relatively stable across all major sectors of the Market. In the context of the rapid and heavy downgrades seen across the Market (and for all major sectors except LPTs) in the prelude to reporting season, the delivery of already-weak FY1 EPSg forecasts will likely be positively received by investors. We note that the risk of FY1E EPSg downgrades remains, with the majority of companies still to report their JunHY1 results over the coming weeks. The LPTs remain the prominent sector, expecting delivery of modest earnings growth this year (+4.%). This sector has enjoyed stable EPSg forecasts across FY1E, in stark contrast to other major Market sectors. Only three stocks in this sector have reported to date, namely ALZ, LEP and SGP and despite the disappointing result from SGP, the sector is still holding its ground with FY1E EPSg expectations at +4.%. FY1E EPSg for the Industrials sector is unchanged at +1.6% while FY13E EPSg forecasts have been revised slightly lower to +11.7% (from +13.%). It is no surprise that stocks such as RMD, CPU and BKN, delivering high-quality results to (or above) EPSg expectations are being rewarded by investors. The stocks that have delivered to FY1E headline results, however, disappointed either on quality and/or outlook and thus have downgraded their FY13E (and subsequent years ) EPSg outlook include TCL, COH, TLS, TAH and SGP. In our view, the balance of EPSg risk for this sector remains to the downside. The FY1 EPSg forecast for the Resources sector currently stands at -15.3%. RIO has been the only large cap Resource company to report JunHY1 results, which exceeded MRE expectations. The positive surprise was assisted by a lower-than-expected tax rate. Fig 1 Industrials FY1 EPSg holds steady after the first week at +1.6% however FY13E EPSg has slipped Forecast EPS growth for year shown (%) 5 Profile of EPSg forecasts (LHS) 15 1 5-5 -1 FY3 FY4 FY5 Industrials (mkt ex res, LPT's & banks) EPSg FY6 FY7 FY8 Weekly reporting season update FY1 FY9 FY1 FY11 Profile of FY1 earnings revisions -15 (RHS). Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Sep-1 Monthly Fig 3 CBA and BEN have yet to report their JunHY1 results. Sector exp to deliver +.9% (Jun pro-rated) Forecast EPS growth for year shown (%) 35 Profile of EPS growth forecasts (LHS) 3 5 15 1 5-5 FY3 FY6 FY5 FY4 Banks sector EPSg FY7 FY8 FY1 Weekly reporting season update FY11 FY13 Source (for all above): IBES, Macquarie Research, August 1 Earnings revisions FY1 (x) FY13 FY1-1.5-15 FY9 - Profile of FY1 earnings revisions -5. Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Monthly Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Sep-1.5. 1.5 1..5 Earnings revisions FY1 (x). 1.5 1. Fig Resources FY1 EPSg currently stands at a weak -15.3%... Forecast EPS growth for year shown (%) 8 Profile of eps growth 7 forecasts (LHS) FY5 6 5 4 3 1 FY3-1 FY4 FY6 Resources EPSg FY7 FY8 Weekly reporting season update FY1 FY11 FY1 Earnings revisions FY1 (x) FY13 - Profile of FY1 earnings revisions (RHS) FY9-3. Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Sep-1 Monthly Fig 4 LPTs FY1 EPSg remains stable at +4.%, the clear standout of the major sectors Forecast EPS growth for year shown (%) 3 Profile of eps growth 5 forecasts (LHS) 15 1 FY3 FY4 5 FY5 FY6 LPTs EPSg profile FY7 FY8 Weekly reporting season update FY1 FY13 1. -5 FY11.8-1.6-15 - FY9.4-5. Profile of FY1 earnings revisions FY1-3 (RHS). Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Sep-1 Monthly 3.. 1. Earnings revisions FY1 (x). 1.8 1.6 1.4 1. 1 August 1
Macquarie Private Wealth Industrials sector stand their ground with FY1E EPSg still at +1.6% Industrials sector FY1 EPSg remains steady over the start of the reporting season. The positive results from RMD, CPU, NWS and BKN have been offset from downgrades to TAH, TLS, COH and NVT, leaving the overall sector FY1E EPSg forecast steady at +1.6% and unchanged from pre-reporting season forecasts. We note, however, that this is in context with the significant downgrades seen over the course of FY1 and we are still very early into the reporting season with risks remaining to the downside. The FY1E Industrials EPSg downgrade trend has followed a similar if not an almost identical trend in both the magnitude and drivers of the downgrade to the sector s FY11 EPSg forecast. Again the downgrades to the Industrials EPSg have been driven by the large swing in the EBITDAg forecast just as they were in FY11. So again the critical questions for investors for the remainder of this reporting season are Will the EBITDA margin currently forecast be delivered in tact? Or is there still downside risk to FY1 EBITDA margin forecast in this reporting season? And Just as we saw years and 1 year ago, should investors question the FY13 EPSg forecast given that again the forecast is entirely contingent on significant EBITDA margin recovery? Further, Industrials have remained optimistic throughout the year about EPSg bouncing back to +11.7% in FY13, despite much lower growth than initially anticipated in FY1 and the ongoing pressure on EBITDA margins. FY13E EPSg forecasts have slipped marginally (from +13.8%) in our view this still remains optimistic. Fig 5 Industrials EPSg remaining steady as week 1 of reporting season concludes Fig 6 there is a long tail of stocks expecting an optimistic EPSg rebound into FY13. % Industrials FY1(E) EPSg forecast % Industrials FY1(E) EPSg forecast ppts 14 ppts 14 TOL AIO NWS BKN COH TAH HVN DUE 1.6% TLS Others 1.6% 1 1 CPUCWN MAH ORI BBG CPB CSL DUE EGP TTS WOW WES BLD AMP SUN QAN TAH Others 1 1 LEI 8 8 1 +ve Contributors -ive Contributors 1 6 QBE Positive Contributors Negative Contributors 6 4 4 19-Jul-1 1-Aug-1 Source (for all above): IBES, Macquarie Research, August 1 FY1(E) EPSg -1.9% FY13(E) EPSg 11.7% 1 August 1 3
Macquarie Private Wealth LPTs the sector expected to deliver greatest EPSg (+4.%) in FY1E The forecast FY1 EPSg for the sector has nudged down to +4.%, however, it remains to deliver the greatest EPSg of the Market sectors this year despite a disappointing result from SGP. The LPT sector remains the only sector that has not seen their FY1 forecast of positive, midsingle-digit EPSg downgraded over this year. The broad spread of companies in the sector to have also held or upgraded their FY1 EPSg forecast is also a standout positive. A continuation of this EPSg stability again this reporting season will only serve to support further outperformance of the sector the boarder market. If indeed the LPT sector continues the neutral to positive earnings revision trend seen over the last year into this reporting season, there is little doubt that the sector should continue to significantly outperform the overall market. As a double-edged sword, however, given the valuation uplift that has accompanied this EPSg performance, any disappointment or downgrades would equally be critical to the sector s performance. All indications suggest, however, that broad earnings disappointment or downgrades in the sector EPSg this reporting season are unlikely. Fig 7 LPTs FY1E EPSg remaining steady as reporting season commences Fig 8 however WDC asset sales are expected to impact the growth of the sector in FY13 % LPTs FY1(E) EPSg forecast 5. 4.1% 4.5 LEP CFX APZ 4. 3.5 SGP % LPTs FY1(E) EPSg forecast 5. 4% 4.5 Others 4. 3.5 ppts contribution 6 5 SGP 4. 4 CHC IOF GOZ LEP ABP DXS CRF CPA GMG GPT ppts contribution 6 5 Others* 4 3. 3..5.5 3 Positive Contributors Negative Contributors 3. Positive Contributors Negative Contributors. 1.5 1.5 1..5 1..5 1.4 1. 19-Jul-1 9-Aug-1 Source (for all above): IBES, Macquarie Research, August 1. FY1(E) EPSg 4.% FY13(E) EPSg.4% 1 August 1 4
Macquarie Private Wealth 1 August 1 5 Fig 9 Tracking the changes to Macquarie s market and sector P&L & EPSg aggregate forecasts across this reporting season Half year to June 1 (E) (%chg vs. pcp) Full year to June 1 (E) (%chg vs. pcp) Full year to June 13 (E) (%chg vs. pcp) Date of forecast: 19 Jul 1-Aug 17-Aug 4-Aug 31-Aug 19 Jul 1-Aug 17-Aug 4-Aug 31-Aug 19 Jul 1-Aug 17-Aug 4-Aug 31-Aug All companies (ex infrastructure)** Total revenue growth 3.8 4.1 5.7 5.7 5. 5. EBITDA consolidated growth.3-1.3 1.1.9 11. 1.5 EBITDA margin.7.4. 1.9 3.3 3.1 Net interest expense growth.5 3.8 9. 9. 11.7 1.4 Tax consolidated growth.9-3.7 4.4 4. 15.5 16.1 Adjusted NPAT growth -4.9-7.6 -.6 -.8 1.3 9.3 Adjusted EPS growth -6. -8.9-3.8-3.9 9.3 8.3 Growth in Total Dividends -.1 -. 3.4 3.4 3..6 Payout ratio 64.1 66. 64.9 65. 61.3 61.8 Industrials (market ex resources, banks, LPTs & infrastructure) Total revenue growth 6. 6.3 6.8 6.9 4.4 4.4 EBITDA consolidated growth 9.6 9.8 3.1 3.1 1. 11.5 EBITDA margin 14.6 14.5 14. 14. 15.1 15. Net interest expense growth 7.7 7.8 3.4 3.6 6.5 5.1 Tax consolidated growth 7. 6.3 7.3 7. 17.6 16.5 Adjusted NPAT growth 9.4 9.8.5.5 14.3 13.3 Adjusted EPS growth 9.3 9.6 1.3 1.3 13.5 1.3 Growth in Total Dividends -3.1 -.7...3 1.8 Payout ratio 7.4 7. 73.8 73.9 66.4 66.9 Resources** Total revenue growth -.9 -.5 4. 4.3 9. 9. EBITDA consolidated growth -9.8-14. -3.5-4.1 16.9 17. EBITDA margin 31. 9.6 31.6 31.4 33.9 33.8 Net interest expense growth 1. 16.9 5. 4. 39. 37.3 Tax consolidated growth -14.3 -.3. 1. 3.9 7.9 Adjusted NPAT growth -.1-6.7-14.8-15.5 14.8 14.1 Adjusted EPS growth -.4-7.1-14.4-15. 14.6 13.9 Growth in Total Dividends -3. -3.6 4.1 3.8 3. 3. Payout ratio 38.5 41.7 36.4 36.6 3.8 33. LPTs Total revenue growth -7.1-7.5 3.5 3.4-13.5-13.8 EBITDA consolidated growth 3..4 4.8 4.5-1.9 -.3 EBITDA margin 55.7 55.6 5.4 5.4 57. 57.1 Net interest expense growth 13. 13.4 19.8 19.9 1.7. Tax consolidated growth -17.1-8. nmf nmf nmf nmf Adjusted NPAT growth 3..5 5.1 5. -.8-1.5 Adjusted EPS growth 3.3.9 4.1 4. 1.3.5 Growth in Total Dividends 3.7 3.8 5. 5.1 3.7.7 Payout ratio 81.6 8.1 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.4 Banks* Half year to Sep 11 (E) Full year to Sep 11 (E) Full year to Sep 1 (E) Total revenue growth 4.3 4. 4.1 4. 4. 4. EBITDA consolidated growth 4. 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.7 3.4 EBITDA margin 47.9 47.9 47.5 47.4 47.7 47. Tax consolidated growth 5.3 5.3 4.3 4. 5. 3.6 Adjusted NPAT growth 3.3.9 3.1.7 4.7 3.4 Adjusted EPS growth.3.3...6 1.5 Growth in Total Dividends.7.7 4. 4. 3. 3.1 Payout ratio 79.5 79.4 75.1 75.1 75.5 76. Source: Company Data, Macquarie Research, August 1
Macquarie Private Wealth 1 August 1 6 The good The disappointing The interesting RMD reported FY1 results firmly above consensus and MRE expectations. The high quality result was a combination of broad-based revenue growth acceleration, margin expansion and strong cash generation. Further, management provided strong FY13 guidance, which helped drive the +9.3% (or +1.4ppts outperformance to the broader market on the results announcement). MRE remains concerned about competitive bidding which has the potential to stall EPSg for 3yrs from FY14. CPU reported H1/FY1 EPSg of 9.4% & 11.8%, respectively reflecting still difficult market conditions. FY1 EPSg however was above consensus and MRE EPSg expectations (-15.6% and -13.%, respectively). MRE s expectation for +17.9% FY13E EPSg is ahead of company s financial target of 1-15% EPSg with 1% of growth expected to be driven by synergies. The market responded favourably to the result outperforming the broader market by +5.5ppts. The company also expected a $1.8m increase to overall $74.3m synergy target, even after having delivered $9.3m synergies in H1, $6.8m ahead of target. BKN delivered a very strong FY1 adj. NPAT result ($17m) +1.% ahead of MRE forecasts, with strong revenue contributions from key Mining and Rail divisions. Cash conversion was notable, increasing from 47.6% (FY11A) to 93.1% (FY1A) due to very strong H1 (14.8%). The result was well-received by the market, outperforming by +1.8ppts on result day. RIO reported solid operational performance with the earnings down 34% y/y due largely to falling commodity prices. Net income of U$5.bn was 4.5% ahead of MRE and consensus driven by a lower than expected tax rate (4% versus our forecast of 7% on an all-in basis). The dividend of 7.5c was in-line with forecasts representing an underlying payout ratio of 6% versus 18% in 11 with debt increasing to fund sanctioned expansions and with cash flow hit with a low iron ore price assumption, by 14 RIO appears to be sailing close to the wind on the funding front. As a result, growing capital constraints mean that RIO is seemingly restricting investment outside the relatively higher-returning Pilbara expansions and so is deferring capital to Aluminium and Thermal Coal (among other divisions). The stock price was -.3% on the day. LEI delivered a return to profit of $114.6m adj. NPAT in 1H1 (from -$65.5m in the pcp). This was marginally (+.6%) ahead of MRE pre-reporting season expectations, assisted by a low tax rate from R&D concessions and Airport Link/ VDP losses and a $1m gain on sale. Cash flow performance was extremely weak in 1H1 (-$43m operating cash flow, -8% cash conversion) due to timing of cash payments. Gearing was also much higher than expected at 9% (1H1 vs. 57% at FY11 end; this is based on (adj. net debt + op leases)/equity). The stock sold off -1.5% on the day. SGP FY1 underlying NPAT of $676.1m and EPS of 9.3cps (down ~7% on pcp) was in line with MRE forecast. Management guidance implies a potential fall in earnings of >5% (F1 v F13). MRE revised EPS down FY13-5.7%, FY14-4.8%, FY15 -.%. The outlook for SGP remains challenging as depressed residential margins are supplemented with a downgraded retirement development pipeline and a commercial property portfolio that is still undergoing a significant transition. SGP s resi operating profit margin collapsed from.9% in 1H1 to 16.6% in H1. Nearterm retirement unit sales have been revised from ~45 to ~3 in line with MRE projections. The share price was -3.8% on the results, underperforming -4.9% relative to the market. TAH FY1 operational result was positive across all continuing businesses (revenue $3,38.5m, up +3.3% (H1 +3.8%), EBITDA $75.m, up +5.6% (H1 +5.1%). However, the market and MRE were disappointed by the $17.3m of corporate and IT costs that the company will continue to bear following the expiry of the Vic gaming business on 16 Aug. This is expected to drive FY13 consensus EPS downgrades in the order of 5-1%. Share price fell -3.% on the day. NVT $73.1m FY1 NPAT was largely in line with MRE expectations ($73.9m) but disappointed consensus (stock price fell -6.5% on the day of announcement, -7.1ppts relative to the market). Global student enrolments remain weak across the University Program (UP), particularly in Australia, where new commencements for the July semester were not enough to offset an overall negative result of -1%. Management have pushed out expectations of +ve enrolment trend by more than 6m to March 13. MRE revised FY13 EPS down -3.5%. While TCL FY1 headline result ($9.5m FY1 NPAT) was in line with MRE expectations (+.9%), the expected delay of the M opening was disappointing, in our view, given the slower ramp-up to FY13E and FY14E dividends. In an environment where yield is being rewarded, the market was disappointed with this reflected in the stock s -4ppts underperformance. Weak cost performance from roads Citylink, M and M1 in the H1 has driven lower margins across the Group. Management also lowered the growth outlook of FY13. COH reported FY1 adj. NPAT of $158.1m (vs. reported NPAT of $56.8m impacted by $11.3m post-tax recall provision). While this was in line with MRE (-1.8%) and market expectations, the result was assisted by $74.4m FX hedging gains and meaning that nonrecurring FX profits now make up 36% of EBIT. COH market share losses have been kept to 5-6%, while failure rate continues to fall (July failures have dropped to 1/3 that of peak in October 11). Impressive was gross margin expansion of 4bps to 71.%, which continues the long history of underlying gross margin expansion previously clouded by currency movements. Despite this, share price fell -5.1% (-5.6ppts relative performance). NWS 4Q1 result solid, FY13 guidance flat to slightly down on consensus due to investments in education and Star. The company reported 4Q1 adjusted operating EBIT of $1.4 billion, a decrease of 8% relative to the pcp (MRE: $1.8b, Cons: $1.7b). By segment, weakness in earnings from film (- 43%) and publishing (-48%) more than offset the gains seen in the cable networks (+6%). Television came in below our expectations for the quarter, with earnings down 9% for the quarter on revenues down 3% due to ratings weakness at American Idol. A full year dividend of 8.5 cents per share was declared in line with expectations. TLS FY1 adj. NPAT of $3,535m was in line with MRE expectations (-.6%). Operationally the result was mixed with Mobile, NAS and NBN offsetting weakness in PSTN and Sensis. NBN payments expected to drive EBITDAg for FY13E. Capex to sales guidance was set at 15%, up from 14% with the extra spend to accommodate the anticipated mobile growth. MRE has downgraded FY13-FY15 EPS by 5.1%, 3.5% and 4.%.
Macquarie Private Wealth Fig 1 Adjusted profit results this reporting season to date: forecasts vs. actuals Code Company Name 1H1/ H1 Curr. Rep Net Profit Adj. Net Profit Diff (Adj. NPAT) Surprise^ Dividend Surprise ($m) ($m) Forecast Actual Forecast Actual $ (%) +ve -ve Forecast Actual +ve -ve ASX/S&P 1 ex Property ex Resources COH Cochlear H1 AUD 81. 77. 81. 78. -.9-3.6 13. 15. CPU Computershare H1 USD 74. 5.9 141.3 144.5 3..3 14.4 14.5 LEI Leighton Holdings 1H1 AUD 111.6 114.6 111.6 114.6 3..6 19.9. NWS News Corporation H1 USD 1633.4-616. 1617.4 174. 86.6 5.4 1 8.5 8.5 RMD Resmed H1 USD 136.8 141.5 136.8 141.5 4.7 3.4. 1.7 1 TAH TABCorp Holdings H1 AUD 154.6 15.7 154.6 15.7-3.8 -.5 11. 11. TCL Transurban City Link H1 AUD 7.6 9.5 7.6 9.5 1.9.9 15. 15. TLS Telstra Corporation H1 AUD 1959. 1937. 89. 67. -. -1.1 14. 14. ASX/S&P ex 1 ex Property ex Resources BKN Bradken H1 AUD 48.3 57.5 5.3 64. 11.6.3 1.5 1.5 FXL FlexiGroup H1 AUD 31.1 3.5 3.1 3..1. 6.5 6.5 GUD GUD Holdings H1 AUD 77.3 69.8.5.3 -. -.7 56. 35. 1 HTA Hutchison Telecomm. 1H1 AUD 3.1-131.3 3.1-131.3-161.5-535.7 1.. NVT Navitas H1 AUD 38.6 37.8 38.6 37.8 -.8 -. 9.8 1.1 RKN Reckon 1H1 AUD 9.9 9.3 9.9 9.3 -.6-6. 1 3.8 3.8 SGN STW Communications Grp 1H1 AUD 18. 18. 18. 18. -. -1.1 3.5 3.3 1 Resources ERA Energy Resources of Aust. 1H1 AUD -55.5-59.9-55.5-51.5 4. 7. 1.. OGC OceanaGold Corporation 1H1 USD.3-3.1.3-3.1-3.4-186.8 1.. RES Resource Generation H1 AUD -.9.3 -.9.3 1. nmf 1.. RIO Rio Tinto 1H1 USD 4863. 491.8 4863. 5154. 91. 6. 1 73. 7.5 Listed Property Trusts ALZ Australand Holdings 1H1 AUD 66. 89.7 66. 68. 1.9.9 1.5 1.5 LEP ALE Property Group H1 AUD 5. -17.4 5. 9.1 4.1 8.9 1 8. 8. SGP Stockland H1 AUD 335.1 186.8 343.8 39.4-14.4-4. 1. 1. NB Excludes AUT and AQP ^ Surprise is defined as a result +>5% or -<5% compared to MRE s pre-reporting season expectations as at 19-Jul-1 Source: Company Data, Macquarie Research, August 1 1 August 1 7
Macquarie Private Wealth Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 1 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 6 1% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 4 6% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 3 4% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 5 3% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 5% in a year. * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 1 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 3 June 1 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 55.67% 61.% 53.43% 4.58% 69.3% 46.6% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.5% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 3.5%.11% 36.99% 5.41% 8.% 33.69% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.14% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 13.83% 16.89% 9.59% 5.1%.75% 19.71% (for US coverage by MCUSA,.45% of stocks covered are investment banking clients) Company Specific Disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN 94 1 169 79, AFSL No. 3186) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General Disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN 58 83 16, AFSL No. 38947) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN 41 574 93, AFSL No. 3754) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. 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