March, 2018
Commodity Overview Bloomberg Commodity Index - 15 Year Performance to Mar 31, 2018 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2
1/1/2003 5/1/2003 9/1/2003 1/1/2004 5/1/2004 9/1/2004 1/1/2005 5/1/2005 9/1/2005 1/1/2006 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 Crude reality: Price of Oil West Texas Intermediary ($US/barrel) 15 yr. price to Mar 31, 2018 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 3
Gold Bullion Gold (US$/troy ounce) 15 yr. price to Mar 31, 2018 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 4
FX Rates USD Comparisons 1 yr. rates to Mar 31, 2018 Yen vs. USD Euro vs. USD CDN vs. USD 0.0094 0.0093 0.0092 0.0091 0.0090 0.0089 0.0088 0.0087 0.0086 0.0085 0.0084 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 0.84 0.82 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.66 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 5
Emerging Market Currencies F/X rates against U.S. Dollar-3 Year Rates to March 31, 2018 (Indexed to 100 on January 31,2015) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Brazil Real Chilean Peso South African Rand Russia Rouble Indian Rupee Turkish Lira Argentine Peso Chinese Yuan 6
A View of Global Market Indices S&P/TSX Composite Index Price 12 months ending March 31, 2018 54000 52000 50000 48000 46000 44000 42000 40000 38000 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan S&P/TSX S&P 500 Europe Japan Emerging China World 1 yr to Mar 31 1.71 10.20 12.25 15.66 11.06 34.29 6.93 Year to Date -4.52 2.12 2.46 0.84 3.26 4.77 0.84 Quarter to Date -4.52 2.12 2.46 0.84 3.26 4.77 0.84 Mth to Date -0.16-1.94-0.60 3.75-1.40-2.70-1.64 7
Global Market Results 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 S&P/TSX Composite Index S&P 500 Index 2018 (4.5%) 2,000 2018 1,000 (4.9%) 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 MSCI Europe Index 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2018 1,000 (2.4%) 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 MSCI Japan Index 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (0.16%) 8
S&P/TSX by Sector S&P/TSX returns for 2017 and 2018 YTD % 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index Consumer Staples Information Technology Financials Telecom Services Utilities Consumer Discretionary Industrials Energy Materials Health Care Real Estate 2018-0.1-0.5-1.1-1.3 0.0 1.9 0.4-2.2 1.9 0.2 2.2 1.6 2017 9.1 7.8 16.8 13.3 14.8 10.8 22.8 19.7-7.0 7.7 34.2 11.2 2018 2017 9
Central Bank Rates Central Bank Rates and 10 Year Government Bond Yields-3Yrs to Mar 31, 2018 Canada U.S. 2.5 3 2 2.5 1.5 1 Canada - Overnight Rate 10-Year GoC 2 1.5 1 US - Overnight Rate 10-Year Treasury 0.5 0.5 0 2015 2016 2017 0 2015 2016 2017 10
Central Bank rates around the globe Central Bank Rates and 10 Year Government Bond Yields-1-Yrs to Mar 31, 2018 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% Australia Canada England USA (Upper Range) ECB 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 11
Investing Insights Change 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Bull & Bear Markets S&P/TSX Composite Mar 31, 2018 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% Bull & Bear Facts Average gain in bull market: 127% Average length of bull market: 52 months Average loss in bear market: (28%) Average length of bear market: 9 months 288% 253% 203% 168% 146% 155% 146% 85% 81% 63% 82% 109% 44% 16% -26% -17% -15% -25% -35% -39% -25% -20% -27% -21% -38% -43% 12 Source: Bloomberg Mar 2018
Investing Insights Bull & Bear Markets: S&P/TSX Composite The Risks and Rewards of Investing: This chart represents the bull and bear markets in the S&P/TSX Composite Total Return since 1956. All bars above the line are bull markets; all bars below are bear markets. For the purposes of this illustration, a bull (bear) market is defined as a positive (negative) move greater than 15% that lasts at least 3 months. Investor Behaviour: According to the chart, markets spend more time in positive territory (bull) than negative (bear). Bull markets are, on average, longer and more intense, providing a more significant percentage change. On average bear markets are more brief, and yet engender fear. It is during these periods that there are significant investment bargains to be found. Investor discipline during bear markets is critical. 13
Investing Insights Change 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Bull & Bear Markets S&P 500 Index to March 31, 2018 600% 500% 400% 300% Bull & Bear Facts Average gain in bull market: 147% Average length of bull market: 48 months Average loss in bear market: (27 %) Average length of bear market: 14 months 280% 526% 335% 364% 200% 100% 104% 90% 52% 76% 86% 87% 72% 108% 0% -100% -14% -22% -16% -29% -43% -14% -17% -30% -15% -45% -51% 14 Source: Bloomberg Mar 2018
Investing Insights Bull & Bear Markets: S&P 500 The Risks and Rewards of Investing: This chart represents the bull and bear markets in the S&P 500 Total Return since 1956. All bars above the line are bull markets; all bars below are bear markets. For the purposes of this illustration, a bull (bear) market is defined as a positive (negative) move greater than 15% that lasts at least 3 months. Investor Behaviour: According to the chart, markets spend more time in positive territory (bull) than negative (bear). Bull markets are, on average, longer and more intense, providing a more significant percentage change. On average bear markets are more brief, and yet engender fear. It is during these periods that there are significant investment bargains to be found. Investor discipline during bear markets is critical. 15
DISCLAIMER This document includes forward-looking information that is based on forecasts of future events as of January 31, 2018. Mackenzie Financial Corporation will not necessarily update the information to reflect changes after that date. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and risks and uncertainties often cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking information or expectations. Some of these risks are changes to or volatility in the economy, politics, securities markets, interest rates, currency exchange rates, business competition, capital markets, technology, laws, or when catastrophic events occur. Do not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. In addition, any statement about companies is not an endorsement or recommendation to buy or sell any security." The content of this document (including facts, views, opinions, recommendations, descriptions of or references to, products or securities) is not to be used or construed as investment advice, as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any entity or security cited. Although we endeavour to ensure its accuracy and completeness, we assume no responsibility for any reliance upon it. Unlike mutual funds, the returns and principal of GICs are guaranteed. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Mackenzie Investments and is being provided to you solely for the purposes of helping you to evaluate Mackenzie Investments' investment management expertise. By accepting this information, you are deemed to have acknowledged that any other use or disclosure to anyone else without Mackenzie's permission may cause damage to Mackenzie Investments and that you agree to use the same degree of care in protecting this information as you apply to your own proprietary information. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Index performance does not include the impact of fees, commissions, and expenses that would be payable by investors in the investment products that seek to track an index. The rate of returns shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of returns on investment." 16