FUTURE LANDSCAPES The effects of changing demographics Background DRCOG Board Retreat 1
Our region is changing Demographic facts: Rapid growth of the older population Increasing immigration Flexible, creative policies are the response to this increasing diversity Change is the only constant Maintaining an innovative, competitive workforce will be the key to a thriving, prosperous region Are you a baby boomer? DRCOG Board Retreat 2
Baby boomer quiz: True or false? 1. The majority of boomers plan to work in some capacity during their retirement years 2. The top two boomer concerns about retirement are being lonely and not being able to drive Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 1950 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs > 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% DRCOG Board Retreat 3
Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 1960 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs > > 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 1970 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs > 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% DRCOG Board Retreat 4
Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 1980 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs > 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 1990 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs > 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% DRCOG Board Retreat 5
Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 2000 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs > 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 2010 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs > 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% DRCOG Board Retreat 6
Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 2020 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs > 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 2030 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs > 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% DRCOG Board Retreat 7
Aging of the U.S. baby boomer generation 2040 85+ yrs 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 yrs 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Growth of the very old (85+) population is particularly dramatic 0.4% 1.5% 3.9% 1950 2000 2040 DRCOG Board Retreat 8
Local growth of the age 60+ population 2004-2009 Gilpin County 46% Clear Creek County 40% Boulder County 24% Jefferson County 18% Broomfield 41% Denver 10% Adams County 19% Arapahoe County 26% Douglas County 60% Most boomers say they want to age in community... but communities are not generally set up for successful aging DRCOG Board Retreat 9
Even today, we are not meeting the needs of our region s seniors Percent of the older population facing problems Health problems 45% Financial problems 25% Depression Difficulty performing everyday activities: walking, bathing, etc. 20% 24% Inadequate transportation 11% Not enough food 6% A huge gap exists between needs and funding for aging services $180 Current and projected costs to meet identified needs ($ millions) $158 $150 $120 $90 $60 $30 $0 $55 $72 $95 2006 funding level: $8 million 2004 2008 2012 2020 DRCOG Board Retreat 10
Our region s seniors are not getting their fair share of funding Our region has 52% of the state s population over 60, but receives only 47% of the funding DRCOG is the only region in the state with long-term waiting lists for services $3.2 million needed annually just to clear the current waiting list for services: Home-delivered meals In-home services Household assistance Personal care As the U.S.-born population ages, immigration brings new families with new needs DRCOG Board Retreat 11
U.S. foreign-born population Increasing since 1970s Back to levels typical of early 20 th century Substantially different Past migrants Europe Today s migrants Latin America, Asia More diverse ethnically, racially, culturally, linguistically As boomers retire, immigrants will account for increasing share of the workforce Most of our region s immigrants are from Latin America Germany Vietnam 5.5% Canada 3.7% 3.5% Percent of the Denver region s immigrant population by place of birth Other countries 35.7% Latin America 51.7% Mexico 87.2% 12.8% Other Latin American countries DRCOG Board Retreat 12
Net population change in Denver metro area by race and Hispanic or Latino origin, 2000-2005 Race and Hispanic or Latino Total White Black or African American American Indian or Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Some Other Race Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 2005 Population 2,729,358 2,225,673 126,040 21,543 88,808 1,389 196,893 595,781 Net Gain 2000-2005 147,852 145,953 6,211-1,357 15,413-1,106-11,466 119,154 Percent Change 5.7% 7.0% 5.2% -5.9% 21.0% -44.3% -5.5% 25.0% Latin-American immigrants are more likely to live in poverty and suffer from disabilities Persons living below the poverty line 10% 35% Persons with disabilitiies 16% 25% Total population Latin-American immigrants Total population Latin American immigrants DRCOG Board Retreat 13
Latin-American immigrants have less access to vehicles and are more likely to take transit Households with no vehicles available 7% 12% Commuters who take transit to work 5% 8% Total population Latin-American immigrants Total population Latin-American immigrants Latin-American immigrants are less likely to attend college or speak English fluently Adults (25+) with at least some college education 50% Persons who speak English "very well" 92% 14% 28% Total population Latin-American immigrants Total population Latin-American immigrants DRCOG Board Retreat 14
Latin-American immigrants are more likely to live in households with children Households with children 63% 33% Total population Latin-American immigrants Latin-American immigrants are more likely to rent homes and live in multifamily housing Households that rent 34% 53% Households that live in multifamily housing 29% 44% Total population Latin-American immigrants Total population Latin American immigrants DRCOG Board Retreat 15
Latin-American immigrants tend to live in larger households Average number of people per household 4.35 2.51 Total population Latin-American immigrants Policy implications DRCOG Board Retreat 16
Flexible, creative public policy Policies supporting a diversity of options Housing Transportation Human services Policies that support a united regional economy Globally competitive Diverse housing options Livable Communities Affordable Multifamily Assisted-living senior housing Family-friendly housing Located near transit Communities that enable all to be active, independent, productive members of society DRCOG Board Retreat 17
Diverse transportation options Transit Specialized transportation for elderly, people with disabilities Pedestrian and bicycle facilities Safe lighting, street design Connectivity Diverse human services Senior centers Workforce training Day care Bi-lingual education Dispersed into immigrant neighborhoods and accessible by transit DRCOG Board Retreat 18
Maintaining a competitive workforce Able to retain the knowledge of the boomer generation Able to compete for skilled labor in a shrinking pool Place matters Able to support local businesses to be competitive in a global marketplace Maintaining a competitive region Able to retain our region s unique sense of place and quality of life Key to attracting/retaining skilled workers DRCOG Board Retreat 19
Action items Early action items Advocate at federal, state and local levels for needed resources Meet with representatives Testify at hearings Meet with editorial boards, other members of the press DRCOG Board Retreat 20
Early action items Complete and disseminate livable communities development guidelines Strengthen Metro Vision policies Help local governments incorporate into comprehensive plans Early action items Adopt and distribute findings of DRCOG s EPA-funded smart growth and aging study Barriers to senior-friendly development Case studies senior-friendly landuse codes Seek funding for similar study of immigrant needs DRCOG Board Retreat 21
Early action items Formulate a comprehensive outreach program Raise awareness of demographic changes and implications Work with other non-profits to engage seniors and immigrant community in Metro Vision process Longer-term efforts Work to secure long-term funding for aging services commensurate with needs Track and highlight best practices within and outside the region Research issues related to attracting and developing a competitive workforce DRCOG Board Retreat 22