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The new US crude landscape: Managing change and uncertainty Gus Vasquez and Jay Pruett 26 September 2013
Agenda Recent history US domestic production Stocks at Cushing Shifting forward curve structures Canadian crude imports Managing risk with Argus forward curves How Argus curves are derived
Evolution of the current market
Gluts and disconnects Glut at Cushing put WTI in deep contango Prompt values heavily pressured Increasing flows to Cushing outnumbered outflows Cushing stocks built rapidly USGC remained connected to rest of world LLS and Mars as secondary benchmarks De-bottlenecking then moved the glut Reversed, converted and new pipelines Cushing now at much lower levels WTI flipped to backwardation USGC now beginning to disconnect
Shifting supply landscape The shale oil production boom reshaped markets Light imports reduced at the USGC Domestic light prices pressured by production increases LLS forward curve switched to backwardation And then had a knock on effect Sour crude markets also changing WTI recently flipped into backwardation WTI price being determined at the USGC Now future prices becoming increasingly important to decision-making Swaps and forward curves now more valuable tools
'000 b/d Total US crude production 7500 6500 5500 4500 3500 Source: EIA
barrels per day US shale production 2,800,000 2,300,000 1,800,000 1,300,000 800,000 300,000 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 US Bakken (b/d) Eagle Ford (b/d) Permian Basin (b/d) Source: Manitoba Petroleum Branch, Montana Board of Oil and Gas, North Dakota Oil and Gas Division, Saskatchewan Dept. of Energy and Resources, Texas Railroad Commission.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 mn b/d Shale oil and deepwater production forecast 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Deepwater Gulf of Mexico US Shale Oil Source: EIA
'000 b/d Cushing weekly crude stocks 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13
$/bl Steeper WTI backwardation in 2H 110 105 30 Aug WTI Curve 6 Jun WTI Curve 100 95 90 85 80 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16
The changing USGC market
USGC fundamentals have shifted More crude is making its way to the USGC Pipeline reversals Seaway pipeline Longhorn pipeline New pipeline projects Houston-Houma pipeline Seaway twin 450,000 b/d planned start 1Q 2014 Gulf Coast Pipeline Project 700,000 b/d planned start end-2013 Crude by rail Bakken, Canadian heavy
LLS relationship to WTI and ICE LLS initially followed Ice Brent Increased light sweet production weighing on LLS LLS backwardated, headed to lasting discount to Ice Brent Bottleneck/glut in USGC Eagle Ford and Permian production Bakken and Canadian crude volumes This has led to rapid growth in LLS swaps A need to mark to market Physical market priced on Argus Makes sense to mark position using Argus Forward curves derived from same market data
LLS relationship to WTI and ICE 135 125 115 105 LLS Ice Brent WTI 95 85 75 65
$/bl LLS in steeper backwardation 115 110 105 3 June LLS Curve 30 August LLS curve 100 95 90 85
Argus swaps increasingly important Due to greater supplies, uncertainty and new connectivity, swaps futures open interest has increased LLS seen as benchmark for light shale crude WTI Midland seen as alternative to WTI at Cushing Following Longhorn pipe reversal With swaps usage growing Forward curves becoming more important as a tool
Argus crude swaps open interest (CME Clearport) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 WTI Midland Total LLS 20,000 10,000 0
Canadian crude Increasing volumes making it down to Cushing And to the USGC Canadian production is set to continue rising Heavy Canadian could compete with LatAm grades Back out heavy USGC imports Colombia and Venezuela already diverting exports Some 100,000 b/d currently pipelined to USGC Another ~100,000 b/d between rail and barging
Oil sands development continues to build Over 100 projects in total Circa 40 operating commercial projects 20 projects under construction Production to rise 10pc in 2013 to 3.63mn b/d Led by surging oil sands volumes in Alberta Canadian Crude Oil Production million b/d 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total Canadian 3.0 3.8 4.7 5.6 6.2 Eastern Canada 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Western Canada Conventional 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 Oil sands 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.2 5.0 Source: CAPP
The WCS discount Cushing vs Hardisty 115 Maya USGC WCS Cushing WCS Hardisty 105 95 85 $5.50 $16 $15 75 65 $22 55 45
Increased risks to consider in decision-making Difficult to predict full price extent of increased crude movements to USGC Uncertainty over potential size of USGC glut Questions remain on the possibility of crude exports Unlikely to happen But not discarded completely Role of the east and west coasts in soaking up more domestic crude still to be determined Bakken, Canadian Bakken already being backed out of east coast Eagle Ford to California
Uncertainty will remain at forefront
Argus Crude Oil Forward Curves Argus Curves defined Forward Curves are the market s current assessment of the value of a commodity for a specified delivery schedule sometime in the future Forward curves are not a current prediction of future cash or physical market settlement prices Forward Curves do not take into consideration changes in market fundamentals such as new production
Managing Risk - Argus Crude Oil Forward Curves Risk & Risk Analysis Internal Curve Validation Margining requirements Value at Risk (VaR) Potential Future Exposure (PFE) Monte Carlo simulations Mark to Market Mark to Market Compliance: Accounting (FASB), Dodd Frank Trading P&L; Hedging, Margining, Pre-trade analysis Asset Valuation Project planning Capex Project Finance
Argus Crude Oil Forward Curves What are Argus Crude Forward Curves 23 crude oil grades and trading locations over the midcontinent North Sea, Gulf Coast, and Canada 5 year term on forward curve products Daily delivered by 5:00 PM CST; as of 2:30 EST Who s it for All market participants including; producers, transporters, refiners, traders, regulatory and government agencies
Key Advantages Multiple Data Suppliers Wide range of data sources Brokers only have access to their pricing data Independent Non-Biased Data Provider Argus does not participate in energy markets Product Advantages No pricing gaps, prices marked within term (no stale data) User friendly excel format Ability to mark illiquid trading hubs Delivery options include: FTP data feed, API, Emailed Excel File, Third Party Vendor (Globalview, ZEMA, Morningstar) Published Methodology Methodology with Code of Conduct and Compliance
Crude oil grades and trading locations US Midcontinent: West Texas Sour (WTS): (Midland, TX) West Texas Intermediate: (Midland, TX) Bakken: (Clearbrook, MN) WCS: (Cushing, OK) Canadian: Western Canadian Select Syncrude (SYN) Edmonton C5 Light Sour Blend (LSB) Mixed Sweet Blend (MSW) Lloydminster Blend (LLB) US Gulf Coast: ASCI (Argus Sour Crude Index) Bonito Eugene Island Heavy Louisiana Sweet (HLS) Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) LLS financial swap (E5) Mars Poseidon Southern Green Canyon (SGC) Thunder Horse Futures markets: ICE Brent Crude Oil CME NYMEX WTI Futures Futures Calendar Month Average (CMA)
Illiquid markets & terms When market data not available Time and/or locational spread relationships used For each illiquid location and term Argus identifies at least one liquid reference spread location/term that has a strong historical correlation Applies regression and other forms of statistical analysis and proprietary curve fitting formulas Formulaic values validated vs daily cash market changes as well as other liquid and illiquid forward markets Statistical analysis and proprietary algorithms used in the absence of market data
Argus Forward Curves Crude Forwards 23 Grades CRUDE OIL FORWARD CURVES - MID MARKET, $/bl close of business, 19 Jul 13 Market: FUTURES FUTURES FUTURES Physical Financial Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Location: Mid Continent Mid Continent North Sea Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Mid Continent Mid Continent Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Thunder Crude Oil: WTI WTI - CMA BRENT LLS LLS (E5) Mars HLS WTS WTI Midland Poseidon Eugene Island Bonito Horse Monthly Curves: Aug-13 108.05 107.23 N/A 114.10 110.04 108.92 113.35 107.75 107.65 108.37 112.67 113.02 113.30 Sep-13 107.87 105.59 108.07 111.72 111.74 107.24 110.99 107.57 107.48 106.70 110.93 111.59 112.34 Oct-13 106.12 103.84 107.21 110.12 110.14 106.05 109.40 105.82 105.74 105.51 109.70 109.83 110.58 Nov-13 104.35 102.19 106.53 108.65 108.67 104.81 107.94 104.05 103.98 104.28 108.42 108.05 108.80 Dec-13 102.68 100.55 105.87 107.45 107.47 103.49 106.74 102.35 102.32 102.97 106.74 106.37 107.12 Jan-14 101.04 99.12 105.22 106.33 106.36 101.84 105.63 100.70 100.69 101.33 105.09 104.72 105.47 Feb-14 99.57 98.02 104.54 105.61 105.64 100.36 104.92 99.22 99.23 99.85 103.61 103.24 103.99 Mar-14 98.38 96.94 103.87 104.85 104.88 99.16 104.16 98.02 98.05 98.66 102.41 102.04 102.79 Apr-14 97.24 96.12 103.25 104.06 104.09 98.01 103.38 96.87 96.92 97.52 101.26 100.89 101.64 May-14 96.35 95.26 102.65 103.40 103.43 97.11 102.72 95.97 96.04 96.62 100.36 99.99 100.74 Jun-14 95.55 94.43 102.08 102.81 102.84 96.30 102.13 95.16 95.25 95.81 99.55 99.18 99.93 Jul-14 94.68 93.58 101.56 102.06 102.09 95.42 101.39 94.28 94.39 94.94 98.67 98.30 99.05 Aug-14 93.81 92.92 101.01 101.20 101.23 94.54 100.53 93.40 93.53 94.06 97.79 97.42 98.17 Sep-14 93.09 92.46 100.43 100.42 100.45 93.81 99.76 92.67 92.82 93.34 97.06 96.69 97.44 Oct-14 92.57 92.03 99.88 99.85 99.88 93.28 99.19 92.14 92.31 92.81 96.53 96.16 96.91 Nov-14 92.17 91.61 99.40 99.32 99.35 92.87 98.67 91.73 91.92 92.40 96.12 95.75 96.50 Dec-14 91.77 90.99 98.95 98.87 98.90 92.46 98.22 91.32 91.53 91.99 95.71 95.34 96.09 Dec-18 80.14 80.05 87.05 86.55 86.59 80.47 85.97 79.53 80.08 80.06 83.55 83.20 83.91 Calendar Blocks: Bal Yr 105.81 104.57 106.92 110.41 109.61 106.10 109.68 105.51 105.43 105.57 109.69 109.77 110.43 Cal-14 95.52 94.46 101.90 102.40 102.43 96.26 101.73 95.12 95.22 95.78 99.51 99.14 99.89 Cal-15 88.45 87.89 96.11 95.49 95.52 89.08 94.86 87.94 88.28 88.63 92.33 91.96 92.71 Cal-16 84.36 84.03 91.90 91.27 91.31 84.86 90.67 83.72 84.30 84.43 88.11 87.74 88.49 Cal-17 82.12 81.94 89.28 88.67 88.71 82.44 88.09 81.50 82.07 82.03 85.60 85.24 85.97 Cal-18 80.66 80.53 87.70 87.11 87.14 80.99 86.53 80.05 80.60 80.58 84.09 83.74 84.45
Argus Forward Curves 20 Differentials to WTI CRUDE OIL FORWARD CURVES - DIFFERENTIALS VS. WTI FUTURES TRADE MONTH, $/bl close of business, 19 Jul 13 Market: FUTURES Physical Financial Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Mid Mid Mid Location: Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Continent Continent Continent Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Canada Mid Mid Continent Continent Crude Oil: WTI LLS LLS (E5) Mars HLS WTS WTI Midland Poseidon Thunder Horse Eugene Island Bonito Southern Green Canyon ASCI Western Canadian Select Monthly Curves: Aug-13 108.05 6.05 6.15 0.87 5.30-0.30-0.40 0.32 4.62 4.97 5.25-0.10 0.73 N/A N/A N/A Sep-13 107.87 3.85 3.87-0.63 3.12-0.30-0.39-1.17 3.06 3.72 4.47-0.60-0.65-24.18-12.28-7.53 Oct-13 106.12 4.00 4.02-0.07 3.28-0.30-0.38-0.61 3.58 3.71 4.46-0.59-0.15-25.07-12.08-7.22 Nov-13 104.35 4.30 4.32 0.46 3.59-0.30-0.37-0.07 4.07 3.70 4.45-0.58 0.31-26.09-11.88-6.77 Dec-13 102.68 4.77 4.79 0.81 4.06-0.33-0.36 0.29 4.06 3.69 4.44-0.57 0.62-27.24-11.69-6.18 Jan-14 101.04 5.29 5.32 0.80 4.59-0.34-0.35 0.29 4.05 3.68 4.43-0.56 0.62-26.48-11.50-5.54 Feb-14 99.57 6.04 6.07 0.79 5.35-0.35-0.34 0.28 4.04 3.67 4.42-0.55 0.61-25.30-11.34-4.72 Mar-14 98.38 6.47 6.50 0.78 5.78-0.36-0.33 0.28 4.03 3.66 4.41-0.54 0.60-24.40-11.20-4.21 Apr-14 97.24 6.82 6.85 0.77 6.14-0.37-0.32 0.28 4.02 3.65 4.40-0.53 0.59-23.07-11.07-3.78 May-14 96.35 7.05 7.08 0.76 6.37-0.38-0.31 0.27 4.01 3.64 4.39-0.52 0.59-22.52-10.97-3.48 Jun-14 95.55 7.26 7.29 0.75 6.58-0.39-0.30 0.26 4.00 3.63 4.38-0.51 0.58-22.01-10.88-3.21 Jul-14 94.68 7.38 7.41 0.74 6.71-0.40-0.29 0.26 3.99 3.62 4.37-0.50 0.57-21.23-10.78-3.02 Aug-14 93.81 7.39 7.42 0.73 6.72-0.41-0.28 0.25 3.98 3.61 4.36-0.49 0.56-20.54-10.68-2.92 Sep-14 93.09 7.33 7.36 0.72 6.67-0.42-0.27 0.25 3.97 3.60 4.35-0.48 0.56-19.77-10.60-2.90 Oct-14 92.57 7.28 7.31 0.71 6.62-0.43-0.26 0.24 3.96 3.59 4.34-0.47 0.55-20.41-10.54-2.89 Nov-14 92.17 7.15 7.18 0.70 6.50-0.44-0.25 0.23 3.95 3.58 4.33-0.46 0.54-20.65-10.49-2.97 Dec-14 91.77 7.10 7.13 0.69 6.45-0.45-0.24 0.22 3.94 3.57 4.32-0.45 0.53-21.11-10.45-2.97 Dec-18 80.14 6.41 6.45 0.33 5.83-0.61-0.06-0.08 3.41 3.06 3.77-0.41 0.22-18.05-9.13-2.41 Calendar Blocks: Bal Yr 105.81 4.60 3.80 0.29 3.87-0.30-0.38-0.24 3.88 3.96 4.62-0.48 0.18-26.20-12.54-7.48 Cal-14 95.52 6.88 6.91 0.74 6.21-0.40-0.30 0.26 3.99 3.62 4.37-0.51 0.57-22.29-10.88-3.55 Cal-15 88.45 7.04 7.07 0.63 6.41-0.51-0.17 0.18 3.88 3.51 4.26-0.38 0.49-19.07-10.07-2.69 Cal-16 84.36 6.91 6.95 0.50 6.31-0.64-0.06 0.07 3.75 3.38 4.13-0.27 0.39-18.88-9.61-2.38 Cal-17 82.12 6.55 6.59 0.32 5.97-0.62-0.05-0.09 3.48 3.12 3.85-0.42 0.21-18.51-9.35-2.48 Cal-18 80.66 6.45 6.48 0.33 5.87-0.61-0.06-0.08 3.43 3.08 3.79-0.41 0.22-18.17-9.19-2.43 WCS Cushing Bakken
Argus Forward Curves 20 Differentials to Brent CRUDE OIL FORWARD CURVES - DIFFERENTIALS VS. BRENT FUTURES, $/bl close of business, 19 Jul 13 Market: FUTURES Physical Financial Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Mid Mid Location: North Sea Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Continent Continent Crude Oil: BRENT LLS LLS (E5) Mars HLS WTS WTI Midland Poseidon Thunder Horse Eugene Island Bonito Southern Green Canyon Monthly Curves: Aug-13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Sep-13 108.07 3.65 3.67-0.83 2.92-0.50-0.59-1.37 2.86 3.52 4.27-0.80-0.85 Oct-13 107.21 2.91 2.93-1.16 2.19-1.39-1.47-1.70 2.49 2.62 3.37-1.68-1.24 Nov-13 106.53 2.12 2.14-1.72 1.41-2.48-2.55-2.25 1.89 1.52 2.27-2.76-1.87 Dec-13 105.87 1.58 1.60-2.38 0.87-3.52-3.55-2.90 0.87 0.50 1.25-3.76-2.57 Jan-14 105.22 1.11 1.14-3.38 0.41-4.52-4.53-3.89-0.13-0.50 0.25-4.74-3.56 Feb-14 104.54 1.07 1.10-4.18 0.38-5.32-5.31-4.69-0.93-1.30-0.55-5.52-4.36 Mar-14 103.87 0.98 1.01-4.71 0.29-5.85-5.82-5.21-1.46-1.83-1.08-6.03-4.89 Apr-14 103.25 0.81 0.84-5.24 0.13-6.38-6.33-5.73-1.99-2.36-1.61-6.54-5.42 May-14 102.65 0.75 0.78-5.54 0.07-6.68-6.61-6.03-2.29-2.66-1.91-6.82-5.71 Jun-14 102.08 0.73 0.76-5.78 0.05-6.92-6.83-6.27-2.53-2.90-2.15-7.04-5.95 Jul-14 101.56 0.50 0.53-6.14-0.17-7.28-7.17-6.62-2.89-3.26-2.51-7.38-6.31 Aug-14 101.01 0.19 0.22-6.47-0.48-7.61-7.48-6.95-3.22-3.59-2.84-7.69-6.64 Sep-14 100.43-0.01 0.02-6.62-0.67-7.76-7.61-7.09-3.37-3.74-2.99-7.82-6.78 Oct-14 99.88-0.03 0.00-6.60-0.69-7.74-7.57-7.07-3.35-3.72-2.97-7.78-6.76 Nov-14 99.40-0.08-0.05-6.53-0.73-7.67-7.48-7.00-3.28-3.65-2.90-7.69-6.69 Dec-14 98.95-0.08-0.05-6.49-0.73-7.63-7.42-6.96-3.24-3.61-2.86-7.63-6.65 Dec-18 87.05-0.50-0.46-6.58-1.08-7.52-6.97-6.99-3.50-3.85-3.14-7.32-6.69 Calendar Blocks: Bal Yr 106.92 3.49 2.69-0.82 2.76-1.41-1.49-1.35 2.77 2.85 3.51-1.59-0.93 Cal-14 101.90 0.50 0.53-5.64-0.17-6.78-6.68-6.12-2.39-2.76-2.01-6.89-5.81 Cal-15 96.11-0.62-0.59-7.03-1.25-8.17-7.83-7.48-3.78-4.15-3.40-8.04-7.17 Cal-16 91.90-0.63-0.59-7.04-1.23-8.18-7.60-7.47-3.79-4.16-3.41-7.81-7.15 Cal-17 89.28-0.61-0.57-6.84-1.19-7.78-7.21-7.25-3.68-4.04-3.31-7.58-6.95 Cal-18 87.70-0.59-0.56-6.71-1.17-7.65-7.10-7.12-3.61-3.96-3.25-7.45-6.82 ASCI
Argus Forward Curves 20 Differentials to WTI CMA CRUDE OIL FORWARD CURVES - DIFFERENTIALS VS. WTI FUTURES CALENDAR MONTH AVERAGE, $/bl close of business, 19 Jul 13 Market: FUTURES Physical Financial Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Physical Mid Mid Mid Mid Location: Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Canada Continent Continent Continent Continent Crude Oil: WTI - CMA LLS LLS (E5) Mars HLS WTS WTI Midland Poseidon Thunder Horse Eugene Island Bonito Southern Green Canyon ASCI Western Canadian Select Monthly Curves: Aug-13 107.23 4.13 4.15-0.26 3.40-0.06-0.15-0.80 3.42 3.96 4.71-0.36-0.29 N/A N/A Sep-13 105.59 4.31 4.33 0.27 3.59-0.04-0.11-0.26 3.92 3.97 4.72-0.32 0.18-21.90-10.00 Oct-13 103.84 4.60 4.62 0.74 3.89-0.09-0.15 0.21 4.29 3.92 4.67-0.36 0.58-22.79-9.80 Nov-13 102.19 5.09 5.11 1.05 4.38-0.09-0.11 0.53 4.30 3.93 4.68-0.32 0.86-23.93-9.72 Dec-13 100.55 5.64 5.67 1.01 4.94-0.13-0.14 0.50 4.26 3.89 4.64-0.35 0.83-25.11-9.56 Jan-14 99.12 6.31 6.34 0.95 5.62-0.19-0.17 0.45 4.20 3.83 4.58-0.38 0.77-24.56-9.58 Feb-14 98.02 6.71 6.74 0.96 6.02-0.18-0.15 0.46 4.21 3.84 4.59-0.36 0.78-23.75-9.79 Mar-14 96.94 6.99 7.02 0.90 6.31-0.24-0.19 0.41 4.15 3.78 4.53-0.40 0.72-22.96-9.76 Apr-14 96.12 7.20 7.23 0.87 6.52-0.27-0.19 0.38 4.12 3.75 4.50-0.40 0.70-21.95-9.95 May-14 95.26 7.41 7.44 0.87 6.73-0.27-0.17 0.38 4.12 3.75 4.50-0.38 0.70-21.43-9.88 Jun-14 94.43 7.51 7.54 0.86 6.84-0.28-0.16 0.38 4.11 3.74 4.49-0.37 0.69-20.89-9.76 Jul-14 93.58 7.48 7.51 0.83 6.81-0.31-0.18 0.35 4.08 3.71 4.46-0.39 0.66-20.13-9.68 Aug-14 92.92 7.39 7.42 0.79 6.73-0.35-0.20 0.32 4.04 3.67 4.42-0.41 0.63-19.65-9.79 Sep-14 92.46 7.31 7.34 0.76 6.66-0.38-0.21 0.29 4.01 3.64 4.39-0.42 0.60-19.14-9.97 Oct-14 92.03 7.19 7.22 0.75 6.54-0.39-0.19 0.28 4.00 3.63 4.38-0.40 0.59-19.87-10.00 Nov-14 91.61 7.20 7.23 0.79 6.55-0.35-0.14 0.32 4.04 3.67 4.42-0.35 0.63-20.09-9.93 Dec-14 90.99 7.17 7.20 0.76 6.52-0.38-0.15 0.30 4.01 3.64 4.39-0.36 0.61-20.33-9.67 Dec-18 80.05 6.42 6.46 0.34 5.83-0.60-0.05-0.07 3.42 3.07 3.78-0.40 0.23-17.96-9.04 Calendar Blocks: Bal Yr 104.57 4.06 4.09-0.13 3.35-0.77-0.82-0.65 3.35 3.24 3.99-1.03-0.26-24.96-11.30 Cal-14 94.46 7.15 7.18 0.84 6.48-0.30-0.18 0.36 4.09 3.72 4.47-0.39 0.67-21.23-9.82 Cal-15 87.89 7.08 7.12 0.67 6.46-0.47-0.10 0.22 3.92 3.55 4.30-0.31 0.53-18.51-9.51 Cal-16 84.03 6.91 6.95 0.51 6.32-0.61-0.02 0.09 3.76 3.39 4.14-0.24 0.41-18.55-9.28 Cal-17 81.94 6.55 6.59 0.34 5.97-0.60-0.03-0.07 3.49 3.13 3.86-0.40 0.23-18.33-9.17 Cal-18 80.53 6.45 6.49 0.34 5.87-0.60-0.05-0.07 3.44 3.08 3.80-0.40 0.23-18.04-9.06 WCS Cushing
Argus Forward Curves 16 Other Crude Differentials CRUDE OIL FORWARD DIFFERENTIAL CURVES, $/bl close of business, 19 Jul 13 Crude Oil Southern Green LLS HLS Mars Eugene Island Eugene Island Bonito Thunder Horse WTI Midland HLS Poseidon Market 1 Canyon vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. Crude Oil Southern Green Mars LLS Poseidon Mars Bonito Mars Mars Mars WTS Mars Market 2 Canyon Monthly Curves: Aug-13 5.18-0.75 0.55 4.10-0.28 4.38 3.75-0.97-0.10 4.43 0.42 Sep-13 4.48-0.73 0.54 4.35-0.75 5.10 3.69 0.03-0.09 3.75-0.57 Oct-13 4.07-0.72 0.54 3.78-0.75 4.53 3.65-0.52-0.08 3.35-0.02 Nov-13 3.84-0.71 0.53 3.24-0.75 3.99 3.61-1.04-0.07 3.13 0.51 Dec-13 3.96-0.71 0.52 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.38-0.03 3.25 0.86 Jan-14 4.49-0.70 0.51 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.36-0.01 3.79 0.85 Feb-14 5.25-0.69 0.51 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.34 0.01 4.56 0.83 Mar-14 5.69-0.69 0.50 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.32 0.03 5.00 0.82 Apr-14 6.05-0.68 0.49 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.30 0.05 5.37 0.81 May-14 6.29-0.68 0.49 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.28 0.07 5.61 0.79 Jun-14 6.51-0.68 0.49 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.26 0.09 5.83 0.77 Jul-14 6.64-0.67 0.48 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.24 0.11 5.97 0.76 Aug-14 6.66-0.67 0.48 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.22 0.13 5.99 0.74 Sep-14 6.61-0.66 0.47 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.20 0.15 5.95 0.73 Oct-14 6.57-0.66 0.47 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.18 0.17 5.91 0.71 Nov-14 6.45-0.65 0.47 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.16 0.19 5.80 0.69 Dec-14 6.41-0.65 0.47 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.14 0.21 5.76 0.67 Dec-18 6.08-0.58 0.41 2.73-0.71 3.44 3.08-0.74 0.55 5.50 0.33 Calendar Blocks: Bal Yr 4.31-0.73 0.53 3.67-0.66 4.33 3.59-0.77-0.08 3.58 0.24 Cal-14 6.14-0.67 0.48 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.25 0.10 5.47 0.77 Cal-15 6.41-0.63 0.45 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-1.01 0.34 5.78 0.56 Cal-16 6.41-0.60 0.43 2.88-0.75 3.63 3.25-0.77 0.58 5.81 0.34 Cal-17 6.23-0.58 0.41 2.80-0.73 3.53 3.16-0.74 0.57 5.65 0.33 Cal-18 6.12-0.58 0.41 2.75-0.71 3.46 3.10-0.74 0.55 5.54 0.33
Summary There is a lot of uncertainty out there Independently-produced Crude Forward curves becoming essential part of crude oil business Argus brings a wealth of experience using the same rigorous procedures as all other Argus products Argus methodologies are transparent and documented Multiple sources of market data support coverage of both liquid and illiquid markets
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