The Outlook for Canada s Oil and Gas Sector. Calgary Real Estate Forum October 21, 2009
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1 The Outlook for Canada s Oil and Gas Sector Calgary Real Estate Forum October 21, 2009
2 Canada s Oil and Gas Impact on Alberta The oil and natural gas continues to drive almost ½ of the Alberta economy $1 in investment creates $3 in value for Albertans (2009 CERI Study) Attract Capital Increases Standard of Living Jobs Taxes and Royalties Investment New Businesses
3 Canada s Oil and Gas Impact on Alberta What are the Impacts? Direct Oil and Natural Gas companies Construction of plants and facilities Indirect Oil and natural gas drilling Service companies, trucking, pipelines Legal, accounting, business support Induced Restaurants, hotels and motels Real Estate, vehicles, consumer goods
4 The Future of Energy Supplies Global economic growth is going to require more energy in all forms Oil and natural gas remain important long term components of the global energy mix In addition to growth in coal, nuclear, hydro and renewable energy Quadrillion BTU World Energy Demand EIA International Energy Outlook 2009 Renewables Nuclear Coal N atu ral Gas Oil Canada s oil sands resources are a vital part of the global petroleum supply Canada ranks 2 nd only to Saudi Arabia in global oil reserves
5 Crude Oil and Natural Gas prices Crude Oil Prices (WTI NYMEX) $US per barrel Natural Gas Prices (AECO Daily Spot Price) $Cdn/mcf '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 ' '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
6 Crude Oil
7 Jan '06 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan '07 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan '08 Mar May Jul Sep Nov US$ per barrel Jan '09 Mar May Jul Sep Light and bitumen crude oil prices Light crude oil price quoted in media (West Texas Intermediate) Estimated bitumen price netback
8 OPEC Notional Spare Capacity [Capacity to Produce Production] MMb/d Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Source: ARC Financial Corp.
9 Oil Price Forecasts Light Oil NYMEX WTI Near Month US$/bbl 105 Actual Forecast 90 US$/bbl FirstEnergy GLJ Peters & Co
10 Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country Includes 170 billion barrels of oil sands reserves World Oil Reserves State owned or controlled Accessible Oil Reserves Canada s Oil Sands 53% billion barrels Accessible Other Accessible Other Accessible Reserves Reserves 47% S a u d i A r a b ia Ca n a d a Ir a n Ir a q Ku w a it V e n e z u e la A b u Dh a b i R u s s ia Lib y a Nig e r ia Ka z h a kh s t a n Un it e d States Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2008
11 Total Canadian Oil Production
12 Natural Gas
13 Canadian and US Natural Gas prices US$/MMBtu AECO NYMEX September 2009 was the lowest price since August 2002 Jan'05 Jul'05 Jan'06 Jul'06 Jan'07 Jul'07 Jan'08 Jul'08 Jan'09 Jul'09 Source: CAPP Natural Gas Report
14 Natural Gas in Storage Western Canada
15 Drilling Rigs Active in Western Canada 800 # of Rigs active Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Nickle s
16 Alberta Natural Gas Pipeline Receipts 15.0 billion cubic feet per day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: FirstEnergy Capital
17 Nov Dec Oct Aug Sept July US Natural Gas Rigs Drilling Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
18 US Natural Gas Production Bcf/day Hurricanes Gustav & Ike 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: ARC Financial Corp & Bentek
19 Natural Gas Price Forecasts AECO/NIT Spot 9 Actual Forecast 8 7 First Energy C$/Mmbtu 6 5 GLJ Peters & Co
20 Unconventional Natural Gas Basins Technology has unlocked vast supplies of shale gas across North America Robust supply outlook for unconventional gas Game changing for the natural gas industry Reserves Economics Location Technology US shale gas is close to market
21 Canadian Natural Gas Production Forecast Billion cubic feet/day Mackenzie/Beaufort Sea BC Tight & Shale Gas Coalbed Methane Nova Scotia Offshore Conventional Gas Sources: CAPP
22 Western Canadian Land Sales Leading Indicator (like Building Permits) YTD 2009 YTD $ billions Alberta British Columbia Saskatchewan
23 Total Wells Drilled in Western Canada Dry/Susp. Gas Oil 2007 = 18, = 16, E = 8, F = 9, E 2010F Source CAPP. Based on Rig Release
24 Industry Capital Spending Cdn $billions Northern Canada 08 `09F 10F $0.4 $0.5 $0.5 Oil & Gas Investment Spending: 2008: $54 billion 2009: $34 billion (estimate) 2010: $40 billion (forecast) Oil Sands 08 `09F 10F $18 $10 $12 WCSB 08 `09F 10F $34 $22 $25 East Coast Offshore `08 `09F 10F $1.3 $1.5 $2.5 Note: Spending in Canada excludes spending associated with mergers & acquisitions
25 State of the Alberta oil and gas industry The outlook is mixed keys to watch for Crude oil and oil sands Prices recovering particularly for heavy oil Costs for new oil sands coming down slowly Projects being re-examined New tight oil resources (Bakken) are attracting attention Natural gas Prices remain low, supply and storage are strong New unconventional gas (shale) supplies Natural gas drives majority of drilling activity Keys to watch for: Natural Gas US conventional gas supply - now that drilling has slowed Natural gas storage levels slow drilling reducing supply cold weather increasing demand Competitiveness of Canadian unconventional gas Crude Oil Continued recovery of global oil demand China/India
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Jan-01 $12.9112 $10.4754 $9.7870 $1.5032 $29.2595 $275.39 $43.78 $159.32 $25.33 Feb-01 $10.4670 $7.8378 $6.9397 $1.5218 $29.6447 $279.78 $44.48 $165.68 $26.34 Mar-01 $7.6303 $7.3271 $5.0903 $1.5585 $27.2714
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Spot AECO $Cdn/GJ. 1 2 Daily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History. $US/$Cdn $0.90 $0.85 $0.80 $0.75 $0.70
March 1, Chart Watch ARC Energy Charts Visit for more information on this publication and the Institute 13 17 7 37 Oil demand exceeded supply by.9 in Q US crude stocks gained just. MMB Sabine Pass LNG
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Spot AECO $Cdn/GJ. 1 2 Daily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History. $US/$Cdn $0.90 $0.85 $0.80 $0.75 $0.70
March 19, Chart Watch ARC Energy Charts Visit for more information on this publication and the Institute 3 The CAD fell to a 9 month low last week US imports from Venezuela fell to a 1-year low The summer
Spot AECO $Cdn/GJ. ARC Oil Sands Producers Equity Index Daily Index Values; Rolling 24-Month History. 3 4 Daily Index Values; Rolling 24-Month History
November 15, Chart Watch Visit for more information on this publication and the Institute 1 19 39 The CAD has fallen to its lowest since Feb OPEC Production hit a new record high in Oct US crude oil stocks
Spot AECO $Cdn/GJ. 1 2 Daily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History. 90 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18. $US/$Cdn $0.90 $0.85 $0.
February, Chart Watch ARC Energy Charts Visit for more information on this publication and the Institute 1 9 1 17 3 Equities have rallied following the correction New Chart: Canadian Petroleum by Rail
NYMEX Nov natural gas futures soar to $3.057/MMBtu on first day of trading on bullish injection. Projects, an Industrial Info News Alert
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 8: 8:45 9:3 1:15 11: 11:45 12:3 13:15 14: 3.15 3.1 3.5 3. 2.95 2.9 Prior Day s NYMEX Oct-18 Contract (CT) NYMEX