Currency Daily 15-12-217 Market commentary Indian rupee rebounded sharply in early trades, but pared some gains before closing higher by 1paise at 64.34 per dollar amid expectations that the ruling BJP will emerge victorious in Gujarat polls. The local unit was largely supported by a weaker dollar overseas, after the U.S. central bank rate hike overnight even as domestic inflation accelerated further to 3.93% in November. India's CAD for the second quarter doubled to $7.2bn, or 1.2% of GDP fiscal on annual basis, but narrowed sharply from $15bn (2.5% of GDP) in the preceding quarter, official data showed. In cross-currency trades, the rupee fell further against the pound to close at 86.52 from 86.1 per pound and drifted against the Japanese yen to close at 57.11 per 1 yens from 56.87 in the previous session. In forward market, premium for dollar declined owing to mild receiving from exporters. The 6-month premium payable in May edged down to 127.5-128.5paise from 129-131paise, while the far forward October 218 contract also fell to 265.5-266.5paise to 268-27paise in the previous session. Domestic equities closed higher, rebounding from two days of losses, after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates but kept its outlook unchanged, although caution remained ahead of the release of exit polls from elections in the state of Gujarat. The U.S. dollar rallied, as economic data from the U.S. showed signs of an expanding economy. U.S. retail sales surged more than expected in November, while jobless claims fell unexpectedly, pointing to sustained growth and a strengthening economy. The euro pulled back from early gains against the dollar, after the European Central Bank kept monetary policy on hold and revised up its forecast for growth and inflation, but added that underlying inflation remains subdued. U.K's pound pared losses, after the Bank of England left bank rates on hold, just one month after raising the interest rate in more than a decade. FOREX synopsis Futures High Low Close %Chg OI %Chg Spot Close Prev close %Chg NSE Rupee 64.3463 64.44 (.15) INR-Dollar (Dec) 64.43 64.315 64.4175 (.18) 4.63 Euro 1.1778 1.1826 (.41) INR-Dollar (Jan) 64.63 64.52 64.62 (.17) (3.97) British Pound 1.3431 1.342.8 Japanese Yen 112.39 112.54 (.13) INR-Euro (Dec) 76.31 76.1 76.275.49 (7.78) Australian($).7666.7637.38 INR-Euro (Jan) 76.7225 76.515 76.69.49 9.17 Swiss Franc.9891.9854.38 Canadian($) 1.2797 1.2817 (.16) INR-Pound (Dec) 86.75 86.3725 86.655.49 (5.38) Dollar Index 93.489 93.429.6 INR-Pound (Jan) 87.115 86.79 87.4.47 53.48 Global Equities INR-Yen (Dec) 57.24 57.7 57.1925.36 (11.38) Jankets Close Prev close %Chg INR-Yen (Jan) 57.55 57.385 57.4975.34 17.56 Asia Sensex 33,246.7 33,53.4.59 Forward Rates Nifty 1,252.1 1,252.1. Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg Nikkie 22,694.45 22,758.7 (.28) 1-month 64.55 64.64 (.14) Hang Seng 29,166.38 29,222.1 (.19) 3-month 64.78 64.85 (.11) Shanghai 3,292.44 3,33.4 (.32) RBI Reference rate Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg America Straits Times 3,435.78 3,468.77 (.95) Dollar 64.2798 64.4525 (.27) Dow Jones 24,58.66 24,585.43 (.31) Euro 75.998 75.7768.29 Nasdaq 6,856.53 6,875.8 (.28) Pound 86.3535 85.941.48 1 Yen 57.6 56.87.33 Europe CAC 5,357.14 5,399.45 (.78) Commodities DAX 13,68.8 13,125.64 (.44) Close Prev close %Chg FTSE 7,448.12 7,496.51 (.65) Spot Gold 28,317. 29,347. (3.51) Spot Silver 37,54. 39,3. (5.72) FII's Flow Equity (in Rs cr.) Debt (in Rs cr.) Net Crude oil 3,651. 3,678. (.73) As on Dec. 13 8.4 (138.33) (237.9) Copper 439.35 447.15 (1.74) As on Dec. 14 398.83 (444.89) (46.1)
Pivot Levels Futures R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 INR-Dollar (Dec) 64.578 64.475 64.4445 64.4175 64.395 64.36 64.3272 INR-Dollar (Jan) 64.764 64.675 64.6459 64.62 64.5942 64.565 64.5337 INR-Euro (Dec) 76.4399 76.38 76.3244 76.275 76.2257 76.17 76.112 INR-Euro (Jan) 76.8529 76.7938 76.7388 76.69 76.6412 76.5863 76.5271 INR-Pound (Dec) 86.9513 86.8438 86.7437 86.655 86.5663 86.4663 86.3587 INR-Pound (Jan) 87.2951 87.225 87.1164 87.4 86.9636 86.8775 86.7849 INR-Yen (Dec) 57.326 57.2775 57.2325 57.1925 57.1526 57.175 57.591 INR-Yen (Jan) 57.627 57.58 57.5363 57.4975 57.4587 57.415 57.368 Spot R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Indian Rupee 64.4327 64.413 64.3722 64.3463 64.325 64.2913 64.26 Euro 1.185 1.1824 1.18 1.1778 1.1756 1.1732 1.176 British Pound 1.3495 1.3472 1.345 1.3431 1.3412 1.3391 1.3367 Japanese Yen 113.259 112.795 112.584 112.39 112.1997 111.985 111.7542 Australian($).9942.9924.996.9891.9876.9859.984 Canadian($).777.7692.7678.7666.7654.764.7625 Swiss Franc 1.2916 1.2873 1.2833 1.2797 1.2761 1.2721 1.2678 Dollar Index 93.8634 93.7275 93.611 93.489 93.3769 93.255 93.1146 A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the currency. Technical Alerts USD-INR (Dec. Futures) The currency pair holds resistance 64.4-64.5, while on the down side prices may test 64.- 63.8. Indian Rupee s premium in Futures market Contract Spot Futures Premium 1-month 64.3463 64.4175.712 2-month 64.3463 64.62.2737 3-month 64.3463 64.83.4837 4-month 64.3463 65.575.7112 5-month 64.3463 65.28.9337 6-month 64.3463 65.515 1.1687
USD-INR options OI analysis Near month i.e. Dec. 3 Call OI 25 Put OI 25 2 15 Call OI chg. Put OI chg. 2 1 15 5 1-5 5-1 -15-2 -25 Near +1 i.e. Jan 18 1 9 8 7 Call OI Put OI 14 12 1 Call OI chg. Put OI chg. 6 5 4 8 6 3 2 1 4 2-2 Call OI additions Call OI unwinding Put OI additions Put OI unwinding 64.25-64.75 calls, 65.25 call, 65.75-66 calls. 63 call, 63.75-64 calls, 65 call, 65.5 call, 66.25-67 calls. 63.5 put, 64.25 put, 64.75 put, 64.75 put. 64 put, 64.5 put, 65-65.5 puts. Outlook: The currency pair may see support around 64.2-64.25, while on the upside resistance is seen at 64.75-64.8.
Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 12-Dec JPY Tertiary Industry Index (m-o-m) 1:.3%.2% -.2% GBP CPIH (y-o-y) 15: 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% GBP Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) 15:.3%.2%.1% GBP Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 15: 3.1% 3.% 3.% GBP Core Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 15: 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% EUR German ZEW Survey Current Situation 15:3 89.3 88.7 88.8 EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 15:3 29 3.9 EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations 15:3 17.4 18. 18.7 13-Dec USD Monthly Budget Statement :3 -$139b -$135.b -$136.7b EUR German Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) 12:3.3%.3%.3% EUR German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 12:3 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% BOJ Kuroda makes a brief speech at Economists' JPY Gathering 14:3 GBP Claimant Count Rate 15: 2.3% 2.3% GBP Jobless Claims Change 15: 5.9k 6.5k GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/y-o-y) 15: 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% GBP Weekly Earnings ex-bonus (3M/y-o-y) 15: 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths 15: 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% GBP Employment Change 3M/3M 15: -56k -48k -14k EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (y-o-y) 15:3 3.7% 3.3% 3.4% EUR Euro-Zone Employment (y-o-y) 15:3 1.7% 1.6% USD Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) 19:.4%.4%.1% USD CPI Ex Food and Energy (m-o-m) 19:.1%.2%.2% USD Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 19: 2.2% 2.2% 2.% USD CPI Ex Food and Energy (y-o-y) 19: 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% USD Real Avg. Weekly Earnings (y-o-y) 19:.8%.3% USD Real Avg. Hourly Earnings (y-o-y) 19:.2%.2% USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 21: -5117k -2894K -561k USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 21: -3317k -2753k USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 21: 5664k 23K 678k USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 21: -137k 12K 1667k 14-Dec USD FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) :3 1.5% 1.5% 1.25% USD FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) :3 1.25% 1.25% 1.% Yellen Holds Press Conference Following FOMC USD Meeting 1: JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing 6: 54.2 53.6 CNY Retail Sales (y-o-y) 7:3 1.2% 1.3% 1.% CNY Retail Sales YTD (y-o-y) 7:3 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (y-o-y) 7:3 7.2% 7.2% 7.3% CNY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 7:3 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% CNY Industrial Production YTD (y-o-y) 7:3 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% JPY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 1: 5.9% 5.9% CHF SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate 14: -.75% -.75% -.75% CHF SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range 14: -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% CHF SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range 14: -.25% -.25% -.25% EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI 14: 63.3 62. 62.5 EUR Markit Germany Services PMI 14: 55.8 54.6 54.3 EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI 14: 58.7 57.2 57.3 EUR Markit Euro zone Manufacturing PMI 14:3 6.6 59.7 6.1 EUR Markit Euro zone Services PMI 14:3 56.5 56. 56.2 EUR Markit Euro zone Composite PMI 14:3 58 57.2 57.5 GBP Bank of England Bank Rate 17:3.5%.5%.5% GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target 17:3 435b 435b 435b GBP BOE Corporate Bond Target 17:3 1b 1b 1b
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 18:15.%.%.% EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 18:15.25%.25%.25% EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate 18:15 -.4% -.4% -.4% ECB President Draghi holds news conference in EUR Frankfurt 19: USD Initial Jobless Claims 19: 225k 239k 236k USD Continuing Claims 19: 1886k 19k 1913k USD Retail Sales Advance (m-o-m) 19:.8%.3%.2% USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 19:.8%.3%.4% USD Retail Sales Control Group 19:.3%.3% USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum (m-o-m) 19:.1%.1%.1% USD Export Price Index (y-o-y) 19: 3.1% 2.7% USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI 2:15 55 54. 53.9 USD Markit US Services PMI 2:15 52.4 54.5 USD Markit US Composite PMI 2:15 53 54.5 USD Business Inventories 2:3 -.1% -.1%.% USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 21: -69-6. 2. 15-Dec MXN Overnight Rate :3 7.25% 7.% USD Industrial Production (m-o-m) 19:45.3%.9% USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production 19:45.2% 1.3% USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 23:3 931. USD Net Long-term TIC Flows 2:3 $8.9b
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