Currency Daily 3-11-217 Market commentary Indian rupee has continued to trade firm for the third-straight session, gaining another 1paise to close at a fresh 2-month high of 64.31 against the U.S. dollar ahead of the GDP data. Heavy unwinding of dollar position by some foreign banks and corporates predominantly supported the local unit, which has appreciated by a whopping 39paise in the last 3-days. In cross-currency trades, the rupee fell back against the pound to close at 86.21 from 85.65 per pound, but remained firm against the Japanese yen to close at 57.66 per 1 yens as compared to 57.87 in the previous session. In forward market, premium for dollar continued its slide due to persistent receiving from exporters. The benchmark 6-month premium payable in April softened to 112-114paise from 113-115paise previously, while the far forward October 218 contract closed steady at 254-256paise. Domestic equities pared earlier gains to close lower yesterday, as sentiment was cautious following North Korea s missile test, while investors await key macro-economic data due on Thursday. The dollar traded steadily against a basket of major currencies, as upbeat economic data and signs of progress on tax reform lifted sentiment but a surge in sterling weighed on upside momentum. U.S. Gross domestic product increased at a 3.3% annual rate in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate of GDP, beating a previous estimate of 3%. Federal chair Janet Yellen testified on the economic outlook before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee. She reaffirmed the central bank s stance on monetary policy of gradual rate hikes amid concerns that the economy would overheat. Yellen's somewhat hawkish comments lifted Treasury yields, supporting an uptick in the dollar. U.K's pound rallied to a 2-month high against the greenback on reports of a UK-EU agreement on the so-called Brexit divorce bill. FOREX synopsis Futures High Low Close %Chg OI %Chg Spot Close Prev close %Chg NSE Rupee 64.3225 64.4125 (.14) INR-Dollar (Dec) 64.81 64.5475 64.615 (.17). Euro 1.1847 1.184.6 INR-Dollar (Jan) 65.3 64.77 64.8325 (.17). British Pound 1.349 1.3339.52 Japanese Yen 111.93 111.48.4 INR-Euro (Dec) 77.2225 76.86 76.9 (.53). Australian($).757.7595 (.33) INR-Euro (Jan) 77.6325 77.27 77.3175 (.53). Swiss Franc.9846.9842.4 Canadian($) 1.2865 1.2815.39 INR-Pound (Dec) 86.4125 85.92 86.1 (.47). Dollar Index 93.164 93.27 (.11) INR-Pound (Jan) 86.795 86.35 86.425 (.41). Global Equities INR-Yen (Dec) 58.325 58.625 58.975 (.2). Jankets Close Prev close %Chg INR-Yen (Jan) 58.615 58.36 58.3825 (.19). Asia Sensex 33,62.76 33,618.59 (.5) Forward Rates Nifty 1,361.3 1,37.25 (.9) Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg Nikkie 22,597.2 22,486.24.49 1-month 64.56 64.61 (.8) Hang Seng 29,623.83 29,68.85 (.19) 3-month 64.77 64.82 (.8) Shanghai 3,337.86 3,333.66.13 RBI Reference rate Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg America Straits Times 3,438.99 3,442.35 (.1) Dollar 64.458 64.426 (.2) Dow Jones 23,94.68 23,836.71.44 Euro 76.323 76.6992 (.49) Nasdaq 6,824.39 6,912.36 (1.27) Pound 86.1428 85.8469.34 1 Yen 57.75 57.94 (.33) Europe CAC 5,398.5 5,39.48.14 Commodities DAX 13,61.87 13,59.53.2 Close Prev close %Chg FTSE 7,393.56 7,46.65 (.9) Spot Gold 29,223. 29,347. (.42) Spot Silver 37,948. 39,3. (3.44) FII's Flow Equity (in Rs cr.) Debt (in Rs cr.) Net Crude oil 3,678. 3,678.. As on Nov. 28 33.88 (93.3) 291.9 Copper 432.15 447.15 (3.35) As on Nov. 29 784.35 (33.3) 751.1
Pivot Levels Futures R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 INR-Dollar (Dec) 64.8211 64.7463 64.6767 64.615 64.5533 64.4838 64.489 INR-Dollar (Jan) 65.366 64.9625 64.8936 64.8325 64.7714 64.725 64.6284 INR-Euro (Dec) 77.1846 77.813 76.9852 76.9 76.8148 76.7188 76.6154 INR-Euro (Jan) 77.621 77.4988 77.427 77.3175 77.2323 77.1363 77.329 INR-Pound (Dec) 86.3966 86.2563 86.1257 86.1 85.8943 85.7638 85.6234 INR-Pound (Jan) 86.7743 86.6475 86.5296 86.425 86.324 86.225 86.757 INR-Yen (Dec) 58.2859 58.2175 58.1539 58.975 58.411 57.9775 57.991 INR-Yen (Jan) 58.5827 58.51 58.4424 58.3825 58.3226 58.255 58.1823 Spot R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Indian Rupee 64.56 64.4394 64.3774 64.3225 64.2676 64.256 64.139 Euro 1.1898 1.188 1.1862 1.1847 1.1832 1.1815 1.1796 British Pound 1.3495 1.3464 1.3435 1.349 1.3383 1.3355 1.3323 Japanese Yen 112.5345 112.315 112.111 111.93 111.7491 111.545 111.3256 Australian($).9886.9872.9858.9846.9834.9821.986 Canadian($).7614.7598.7583.757.7557.7542.7526 Swiss Franc 1.2919 1.29 1.2881 1.2865 1.2849 1.2831 1.2811 Dollar Index 93.5118 93.3855 93.2681 93.164 93.599 92.9425 92.8162 A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the currency. Technical Alerts USD-INR (Sept. Futures) The currency pair holds support at 64.5-64.45 and next at 64., while on the upside resistance is seen at 64.8-65.. Indian Rupee s premium in Futures market Contract Spot Futures Premium 1-month 64.3225 64.515.1925 2-month 64.3225 64.7375.415 3-month 64.3225 64.9425.62 4-month 64.3225 65.165.8425 5-month 64.3225 65.4175 1.95 6-month 64.3225 65.6225 1.3
USD-INR options OI analysis Near month i.e. Dec. 3 Call OI Put OI 25 Call OI chg. Put OI chg. 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5-5 -1 Near +1 i.e. Jan 18 4 35 Call OI Put OI 2 Call OI chg. Put OI chg. 3 15 25 2 1 15 1 5 5-5 Call OI additions Call OI unwinding Put OI additions Put OI unwinding 63 call, 63.75-64 calls, 64.5-65 calls, 65.5-66 calls. 64.25 call, 65.25 call, 66.25-67 calls. 63 put, 63.5-64.25 puts, 64.75-65 puts. 65.25-65.5 puts. Outlook: The currency pair may see resistance around 64.75-65., while on the downside support is seen at 64.25-64.2 and next at 64..
Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 27-Nov USD New Home Sales (m-o-m) 2:3 6.2% -6.3% 14.2% 28-Nov EUR OECD Economic Outlook 15:3 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence 17:3 1.7 1.7 1.7 USD Advance Goods Trade Balance 19: -$68.3b -$65.1b -$64.1b USD Wholesale Inventories (m-o-m) 19:.4%.4%.1% USD House Price Index (m-o-m) 19:3.3%.5%.8% USD House Price Purchase Index (q-o-q) 19:3 1.4% 1.7% USD S&P CoreLogic CS 2-City (m-o-m) SA 19:3.52%.3%.44% USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-2 (y-o-y) 19:3 6.19% 6.% 5.82% USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (y-o-y) 19:3 6.15% 5.95% USD Consumer Confidence Index 2:3 129.5 124. 126.2 USD Conf. Board Present Situation 2:3 153.9 152. 29-Nov EUR French Gross Domestic Product (y-o-y) 13:15 2.2% 2.2% Bundesbank presents 217 Financial Stability EUR Report 13:3 GBP Net Consumer Credit 15: 1.415b 1.5b 1.48b GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings 15: 3.4b 3.7b 3.8b GBP Mortgage Approvals 15: 64.6k 65.k 66.1k EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence 15:3 114.6 114.6 114.1 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence 15:3 8.2 8.6 8. EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 15:3.1.1.1 EUR German Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) 18:3.3%.3%.% EUR German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 18:3 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (q-o-q) 19: 3.3% 3.2% 3.% USD Personal Consumption 19: 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 19: 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% USD Core PCE (q-o-q) 19: 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% Yellen Appears before Joint Economic USD Committee of Congress 2:3 USD Pending Home Sales (y-o-y) 2:3 1.2% -5.7% USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 21: -3429k -2536k -1855k USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 21: -2914k -1827k USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 21: 3627k 967k 44k USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 21: 2747k 156k 269k 3-Nov JPY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 5:2 5.9% 7.2% 2.6% GBP GfK Consumer Confidence 5:31-12 -11. -1. CNY Manufacturing PMI 6:3 51.8 51.5 51.6 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI 6:3 54.8 54.3 EUR German Unemployment Change ('s) 14:25-1k -11k EUR German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. 14:25 5.6% 5.6% EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 15:3 8.9% 8.9% EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (y-o-y) 15:3 1.6% 1.4% EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (y-o-y) 15:3 1.%.9% USD Initial Jobless Claims 19: 24k 239k USD Continuing Claims 19: 194k USD Personal Income 19:.3%.4% USD Personal Spending 19:.3% 1.% USD Real Personal Spending 19:.2%.6% USD PCE Core (m-o-m) 19:.2%.1% USD PCE Core (y-o-y) 19: 1.4% 1.3% USD Chicago Purchasing Manager 2:15 62.3 66.2 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 21: -46. 1-Dec JPY Jobless Rate 5: 2.8% 2.8% JPY National Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 5:.2%.7%
JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (y-o-y) 5:.8%.7% JPY Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (y-o-y) 5:.2%.2% JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing 6: 53.8 CNY Caixin China PMI Mfg. 7:15 51. 51. EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI 14:25 62.5 62.5 EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (y-o-y) 14:3 1.8% 1.8% EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 14:3 6. 6. GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. 15: 56.5 56.3 USD ISM Manufacturing 2:3 58.3 58.7 USD ISM Prices Paid 2:3 67.8 68.5 USD ISM Employment 2:3 59.8 USD Construction Spending (m-o-m) 2:3.5%.3% USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 23:3 923.
Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research 22-62257267/ pranav.mer@adityavbirlacapital.com Sunil Darekar Advisor 22-62257268/ 22-62257278 sunil.darekar@adityabirlacapital.com Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither Aditya Birla Money Limited (ABML), its associate group companies, its directors, associates, employees nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of Aditya Birla Money Limited or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision. Aditya Birla Money Limited, its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions Aditya Birla Money Limited is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 214. SEBI Reg. No. INH2145