Utah s Long Run Demographic Trends: Evolving Community Contexts Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. Director, Demographic Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah
GROWTH
Intermountain States Population: 1900-1950 7 6 Arizona Colorado 749,587 1,325,089 Millions of Population 5 4 3 2 Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming 588,637 591,024 160,083 681,187 688,862 290,529 1 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Intermountain States Population: 1900-2010 7 6 Arizona Colorado 6,392,017 5,029,196 Millions of Population 5 4 3 2 Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming 1,566,582 989,415 2,700,551 2,059,179 2,763,885 563,626 1 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Population with Million Markers 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,827,810 5,500,000 2050 5,000,000 4,500,000 2032 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Total Population Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections
Projected Percent Growth by Decade: Utah and the United States 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 16.63% 14.50% 12.87% 12.00% 11.03% 10.00% 9.69% 8.00% 7.52% 6.93% 6.00% 4.00% 5.48% 4.55% 4.43% 2.00% 0.00% 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060 U.S. Utah Sources: Census Bureau 2014-2060 National Projections; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections
URBANIZATION
Urban Growth: Utah is an Urban State with Urban Issues 100% 90% 91% 80% Percent of the Population 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 9% 0% 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Population by County: 2065 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections
County s Share of State Population: 2065 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections
Absolute Population Change by County: 2015-2065 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections
Percent Population Change by County: 2015-2065 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections
MIGRATION AS A DRIVER
State of Utah Components of Change: Historical and Projected 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0-10,000 Net Migration Natural Increase Growth
Utah Population Change 1990-2010 Natural Increase, 65% Net Migration, 35% Foreign Born, 45% Native Born, 55% Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.
Utah s Foreign Born Population: 2015 Oceania 3.4% Africa 3.4% Northern America 3.3% Europe 9.3% Central America 6.8% Caribbean 1.8% Asia 20.0% Latin America 60.5% South America 9.6% Mexico 42.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates: C05006.
FOLLOWING NATIONAL TRENDS
Utah: Trend Toward Nation 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 4.30 Utah 2.29 Total Fertility Rates 1960 2015 3.60 U.S. 1.84 Source: NCHS - National Vital Statistics Reports, Volume 64, Number 1 January 15, 2015
Utah: Trend Toward Nation 6.0 5.0 Household Size 5.17 5.27 4.0 3.0 3.17 2.65 2.0 1.0 0.0 Utah 1960 2015 U.S. Source: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey
Utah: Trend Toward Nation 40.0 Median Age 37.8 35.0 30.0 31.2 28.1 25.0 23.1 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Utah 1970 2015 U.S. Source: Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Utah: Trend Toward Nation 45% 40% 35% 30% Minority Share 38.4% 25% 20% 21.0% 15% 10% 11.4% 5% 0% 1.9% Utah 1970 2015 U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates
Utah: Trend Toward Nation 30 25 20 Female Age at First Marriage 24.3 20.2 20.8 27.8 15 10 5 0 Utah 1970 2015 U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey.
Utah: Trend Toward Nation 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Share of Households: Opposite Sex Married Couple with Children 48% 40% 30% 19% 10% 0% Utah 1970 2015 U.S. Source: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey: S0201.
GENERATIONAL SHIFT
2015: Millennials Surpass Baby Boomers 5,000,000 United States 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Generation Z (after 2000) 60.1 million Millennials (1982-2000) 82.8 million Generation X (1965-1981) 69.8 million Baby Boomers (1946-1964) 74.9 million Silent Generation (1930-1945) 26.3 million Greatest and Lost Generations (before 1930) 4.6 million 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
2015: Millennials Surpass Baby Boomers 60,000 Utah 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Greatest and Lost Generations (before 1930) 35,708 10,000 Generation Z (after 2000) 767,523 Millennials (1982-2000) 877,693 Generation X (1965-1981) 629,214 Baby Boomers (1946-1964) 514,533 Silent Generation (1930-1946) 166,254 0 0 12 3 45 6 78 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
129 Languages
Minority Share by Age Group: 2010 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Westside SLC Salt Lake City US Salt Lake County Utah 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census.
Minority Share of the Population: U.S., Utah, & Salt Lake County & City 60% 50% 40% 30% U.S. State of Utah Salt Lake County Salt Lake City 20% 10% 0% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Mixed Heritage: America in 2050 Source: National Geographic
HOSANNA MARSHALL, 32, NEW YORK, NEW YORK SELF-ID: African American, Native American, white, and Jewish CENSUS BOXES CHECKED: black
NEIGHBORHOOD DIVERSITY
% of Pop Age 25+: Less Than High School
% of Pop Age 25+: Less Than High School
% Minorities
% Households Below Poverty
Adults Reporting Fair or Poor Health Glendale 30.9% Foothill 7.1%
Life Expectancy at Birth Foothill 85 Glendale 75.8
Neighborhoods
AGING POPULATION
Selected Age Groups as a Percent of Total Population: 2015-2065 100% 90% 1.26% 1.49% 2.26% 3.18% 3.31% 4.01% 8.92% 12.00% 12.79% 13.69% 15.73% 16.25% 80% 70% 60% 48.97% 48.32% 49.35% 48.52% 47.33% 47.05% 50% 40% 30% 10.11% 10.40% 9.18% 8.89% 8.99% 8.57% 20% 10% 0% 22.25% 19.87% 18.64% 18.41% 17.60% 17.10% 8.48% 7.92% 7.78% 7.31% 7.04% 7.02% 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 0-4 5-17 18-24 25-64 65-84 85+ Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections
100 U.S. Dependency Ratios: 1970-2060 Aging Baby Boomer Drive Increase in Total 90 80 70 60 50 79.0 17.7 65.1 18.6 61.6 61.6 20.3 20.1 58.9 64.0 20.7 27.7 71.9 73.1 72.9 76.4 35.5 37.5 38.2 41.5 40 30 20 61.3 46.5 41.3 41.5 38.2 36.3 36.5 35.6 34.7 34.8 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Youth Retirement Age Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Population Division data and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Note: Dependency Ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18-64 year old) persons in the population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older.
Utah Dependency Ratios: 1970-2060 Youth Dependency Ratios Decline and Stabilize 100 90 80 70 89.9 13.9 80.0 82.3 13.5 15.8 68.6 68.2 69.9 70.3 71.9 76.1 78.3 60 14.4 15.2 20.0 24.7 27.0 31.7 35.1 50 40 30 20 76.0 66.5 66.4 54.3 53.0 49.9 45.6 44.9 44.4 43.3 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Youth Retirement Age Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census data and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Note: Dependency Ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18-64 year old) persons in the population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older.
Utah Population Pyramid: 1960, 2015, & 2065 100+ Male - 2065 Projection Female - 2065 Projection 96 Male - 2015 Female - 2015 92 Male - 1960 Female - 1960 88 84 80 76 72 68 64 60 56 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Note: The top age group for 1960 is 85+ Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, DemographyUTAH Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State Projections
SCHOOL & COLLEGE AGE
Utah: School Age (5-17) and College Age (18-24) Population Estimates and Projections 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 School Age (5 17) Estimate College Age (18 24) Estimate School Age (5 17) Projection College Age (18 24) Estimate 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Sources: 1980-1989: Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: 1980-1989; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections
Historical Births Series: Utah and the United States 5,000,000 U.S. Peak (1957, 4.31 million) U.S. Peak (2007, 4.32 million) 100,000 4,000,000 80,000 U.S Births 3,000,000 2,000,000 Utah Peak (1980-82, Over 41,000) Utah Peak (2008, 55,357) 60,000 40,000 Utah Births 1,000,000 20,000 0 0 U.S. Utah Sources: National Center for Health Statistics; Utah Department of Health
Utah Cumulative Births 1,000,000 900,000 5-17 years ago (Estimate) 5-17 years ago (Projection) 18-24 years ago (Estimate) 18-24 years ago (Projection) 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Sources: 1980-1989: Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: 1980-1989; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 Draft County Projections
Utah Births Analysis: School Age and College Age Population Estimates, Projections, and corresponding births 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 School Age (5 17) Estimate School Age (5 17) Projection Births 5-17 years ago College Age (18 24) Estimate College Age (18 24) Projection Births 18-24 years ago Sources: 1980-1989: Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: 1980-1989; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 Draft County Projections
Annual Absolute and Percent Growth School Age Population (5-17) 18,000 15,000 12,000 Annual Growth Annual Growth Projection % Annual Growth % Annual Growth Projection 6% 5% 4% 9,000 3% 6,000 2% 3,000 1% 0 0% -3,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Sources: 1980-1989: Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: 1980-1989; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Draft 2015-2065 County Projections -1%
Annual Absolute and Percent Growth College Age Population (18-24) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Annual Growth Annual Growth Projection % Annual Growth % Annual Growth Projection 12% 10% 8% 6% 10,000 4% 5,000 2% 0 0% -5,000-2% -10,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060-4% Sources: 1980-1989: Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: 1980-1989; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Draft 2015-2065 County Projections
The New Utah
Thank you Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. Director, Demographic Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah gardner.utah.edu Pam.Perlich@utah.edu Voice: 801.581.3358 Fax: 801.581.3354
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute David Eccles School of Business 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu Facebook.com/gardnerpolicyinstitute Twitter.com/KemGardnerInst