October 1, Chart Watch ARC Energy Charts Visit for more information on this publication and the Institute 1 13 1 3 The DJIA hit a new record high The global oil market had a modest deficit in Q3 OECD oil stocks fell by 1. MMB in August We are now showing heating degree days AB s last land sale was the highest in ~ years Spot WTI Crude $US/B 5 á Edmonton Light $US/B Spot Henry Hub Spot AECO $Cdn/GJ Spot AECO Basis Currency $US/$Cdn 5.3 á 3.1 á.5.97 á.19 á á Indexed to 1 Months Ago 13 15 1 115 11 15 1 95 Broad Equity Markets Year-to-Date 1 Daily Index Values; Rolling 1-Month History The DJIA hit another record high; now up 15.7% this year. Shanghai Composite S&P/TSX Composite Dow Jones Indexed to 1 Months Ago 13 1 11 1 Performance of Oil and Equities Year-to-Date Daily Index Values; Rolling 1-Month History 9 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 5 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index US and Cdn E&P indexes fell again last week. However, they......are still up 15% and 9% from their respective lows. 9 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Broad market indices are one the many vital signs measuring the health of the economy. Energy demand is a function of economic health., ARC Financial Corp. 7 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Performance of Canadian and US oil & gas equities are compared against each other., ARC Financial Corp. Oil & Service Equities Year-to-Date 3 Daily Index Values; Rolling 1-Month History Canadian Currency Exchange Daily Close Values; Rolling -Month History Indexed to 1 Months Ago 1 1 Philadelphia Service I ndex PSAC Cana dian In dex US and Cdn service indexes are up by 17.% and 15.3%......from their respective lows. $US/$Cdn $.9 $.5 1 $. 1 $.75 $.7 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 The performance of Canadian oil and gas service equities are plotted in tandem with the corresponding US index., Petroleum Services Association of Canada $.5 Oct-15 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Much of Canada s oil and gas production is sold in US dollars. As such, the exchange rate significantly impacts corporate revenues and profits. Please see Advisories and Disclaimers at the end of the publication for important cautionary advisory and disclaimer language ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. ARC Energy Charts 1
October 1, Crude Oil 5 WTI Crude Oil Price and Differential to Brent Near-Month WTI and Brent Differential; Rolling 1-Month History WTI ($US/B) 5 3 WTI Diff WTI WTI gained on the week, closing Friday at $51.3/B. WTI Dif f to Brent ($US/B) 1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 North American crude oil prices can sometimes disconnect from global prices depending on regional supply and demand dynamics. 7 5 3 1 5 5 5 US Crude Oil Futures West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to 19 WTI $US/B Outside of the next few...curve is now in 5 months, the backwardation. WTI futures... This reduces the 1 motivation to store crude oil. 19 July 3, Forward prices for WTI are plotted against months in the calendar year. Years are distinguished by color and symbol coding. Canadian Heavy Oil Price Differential to WTI Western Canadian Select (WCS) Differential; Rolling 1-Month History 7 Canadian Light Crude Oil Price Differential to WTI WTI and Edmonton Light differential; Rolling 1-Month History WCS ($US/B) 5 3 WCS Diff. WCS TCPL announced the cancellation of their $15.7 billion Energy......East pipeline that would have shipped crude from Hardisty......to Canada s East Coast. WCS Dif f to WTI ($US/B) They are still seeking commitments for the KXL pipeline. 1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Canadian heavy crude oil differentials are becoming less volatile with growing access to new markets via pipeline and rail. 15 1 5 Edm. Light ($US/B) 5 3 Canadian Light crude has been strong recently, boosted by......speculation that a turnaround at CNRL s Horizon... Edm. Light Diff. Edmonton L ight...oilsands project will take longer than expected. Edm. Light Dif f to WTI ($US/B) The Edm. Light WTI diff fell to just $.7/B on Friday. Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 The differential should reflect the transportation cost from Alberta to Cushing. Greater discounts can result from infrastructure or refinery outages. 5 3 1 Ratio of Long to Short Contracts - WTI Managed Money - Futures and Options 9 1 Total US Oil Production Monthly; 1 to Present Long:Short 1 1 1 Net longs held by managed money fell slightly on the......week, driven by a 1.% increase in short contracts. 1 1 Offshore Oil Production Onshore Oil Production The EIA now estimates that US crude oil production......will rise by. MB/d in 1, to 9.9. This is a.9 increase from last month s forecast. Oct-15 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 This represents the relative bullishness of money managers on the price of oil in the United States., U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission 1 11 1 13 1 15 The advancement of drilling and completion methods boosted US crude oil production, prior to the downturn in prices., U.S. Energy Information Administration ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. ARC Energy Charts
October 1, Crude Oil Alberta Oil Production Monthly; Conventional and Oil Sands 11 1 3. Upgraded Oil Sands Non-Upgraded Oil Sands Conventional 3 33 OPEC Oil Production Monthly; Rolling -Month History July 3,.5. 1..5 According to the latest IEA report, Canadian production in......june was 73 MB/d over last year, when wildfires had......significantly impacted oil sands operations. 3 31 3 9. Jun-1 Jun-13 Jun-1 Jun-15 Jun-1 Jun-17 Most of Canada s oil production comes from Alberta; split between oil sands and conventional production. Source: Alberta Energy Regulator Aug-1 Aug-13 Aug-1 Aug-15 Aug-1 Aug-17 OPEC s production levels relative to its sustainable and spare capacity influences global crude prices. Source: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly.5. 1..5. -.5-1. - -. Global Oil Supply-Demand Balance Quarterly; 1 to Present 13 1 The latest IEA Oil Market Report showed that the global......oil market was in a modest deficit in Q3;.. Shortfall The deficit in Q was more significant at.3. Oversupply -.5 1 11 1 13 1 15 Negative numbers indicate a global crude shortfall, while positive numbers indicate an oversupply. Source: International Energy Agency 1 9 7 US Crude Oil Imports US crude oil imports remain well below normal. Lower North American oil prices are incentivizing......exports and discouraging imports. Prior to the downturn, growing domestic supply was displacing crude oil imports. Crude oil imports for the current year are in blue. 15 US Weekly Crude Oil Imports from Canada Pipeline, Tanker and Barge Crude Imports; Rolling -Month History 1 US Exports of Crude Oil and Refined Products Weekly Data; 13 to Present 3. 3. 3. 3. 3...... 1. Oct-15 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb-17 Jun-17 Crude oil imports from Canada are taking market share from overseas imports. 7.. 5.. 3.. 1. Crude Oil Refined Products In the week ending October th th US crude oil retreated......from a record the week prior. Exports remain high though. Large price discounts for North American crude oil are... driving these record exports.. Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-1 Oct-1 May-15 Dec-15 Jul-1 Feb-17 Sep-17 The US exports more refined products than crude oil. If/when tight oil growth resumes, most export growth should come from crude oil exports. ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. ARC Energy Charts 3
October 1, Crude Oil 17 US Crude Oil Stocks 1 MMB 55 5 MMB 1,75 OECD Total Industry Oil Stocks Americas and Rest of OECD; 1 to Present OECD industry stocks in August fell by 1. MMB from a......revised July number. July 3, OECD Americas* 5 35 Crude oil inventories drew by.7 MMB last week. This is the second straight week of inventory decreases. 1,5 1,5 Other OECD The surplus to the 5-year average contracted to 17 MMB. Early this year the surplus was over 3 MMB. 3 US crude oil stock levels can affect crude oil prices. Stock levels for the current year are represented by the blue line. 1, Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 Jan-1 Jan-17 Global oil stock levels can affect crude oil prices *Includes U.S. (~9%), Canada, Mexico and Chile. Source: International Energy Agency 19 % 1 95 US Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (%) 1. 9.5 US Motor oline Consumption 9 5 9..5. 75 Refinery utilization rates change the supply of refined products, impacting price. Utilization for the current year is blue. 7.5 oline consumption accounts for almost half of all oil use in the US. oline consumption for the current year is represented by the blue line. 1 # of Oil Rigs - Play Lev el Total US (Right-Axis) 5 3 1 US Oil Drilling Activity Baker Hughes Horizontal Oil Rig Counts; 1 to Present Permian Eagle Ford Bakken Cana Woodford The US oil rig count fell by 5 last week; down to 73. The rig count has been relatively flat since mid-june. # of Oil Rigs - Total 1 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-17 Jul-17 1 1 1 1 Tracking US oil drilling by major play provides insight into the composition of US oil supply and growth trends. Source: Baker Hughes % of Edm. Light 1 % 1% 1 % 1 % % % % % % Daily NGL Prices as a % of Edmonton Light Propane & Butane Spot Prices at Edmonton, AB Cond ensate Butane (Spot) Propa ne (Spot) Propane prices have been ramping up leading to winter. Relative to Edm. Light, propane is now trading roughly twice......its level at the end of Q. -% Sep -15 Jan-1 May-1 Sep -1 Jan-17 May-17 Sep -17 Natural gas liquids have become critical contributors to producer s cash flow. Prices are influenced by the price of oil as well as local supply and demand., ARC Financial Corp. ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. ARC Energy Charts
October 1, Natural 3 Near-Month North American Natural Prices Daily Prices; Rolling 1-Month History $. $ $3. $.5 $. $ $1. $.5 Differential $. Oct 15 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 1 Oct 1 5 Long:Short. 3..5. 1..5 AECO continues to be impacted by maintenance outages. Henry Hub AECO $C/GJ Near-month prices at AECO track Henry Hub prices, the exchange rate and the cost of transportation. Local factors can also affect price. Ratio of Long to Short Contracts Henry Hub Managed Money Futures and Options 3..75.5 US Natural Futures Nymex (Henry Hub) to 19 July 3, Futures prices are averaging 1 $3./MMBtu for the......upcoming 19 winter months (Dec 17 Mar 1). Forward contract prices are plotted against months in the calendar year. Years are distinguished by color and symbol coding.. 1.75 Canadian Natural Futures AECO Hub (Bloomberg Estimate) to 19 In recent weeks $C/GJ the wider AECO basis has 3. started to......extend to later dates. The 1.75 summer 1 basis is now trading... 19...at $1./.5 MMBtu, vs $1.3/MMBtu 3.5 weeks ago.. Oct-15 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 This represents the relative bullishness of money managers on the price of natural gas in the United States. Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission AECO forward prices mimic Henry Hub futures plus a differential Global Natural Prices Japanese LNG, UK NBP, Henry Hub; Average Monthly Prices 7 1 1 1 1 1 Japanese LNG UK NBP Cheniere has completed commissioning cargoes at its...sabine Pass LNG facility. The first commercial cargoes are expected in March 1. Henry Hub Oct-1 Oct-13 Oct-1 Oct-15 Oct-1 $5 $ $3 $ $1 US Coal and Natural Power Generation Cost Converted to a $/MWh Equivalent $US/MWh Henry Hub Appalachian Coal $ 1 13 1 15 International natural gas prices strongly impact the economics of proposed LNG projects., Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry This graph illustrates when it may be economic to begin coal-gas switching in power generation. Average power plant efficiencies are assumed. ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. ARC Energy Charts 5
October 1, Natural 9 Closing Closing Spot Spot Prices Prices at at North North American American Natural Natural Hubs Hubs Superimposed on Relative Pipeline Flows Superimposed on Relative Physical Volumes Traded July 3, Malin US$.7 Kingsgate US$. Stanfield US$. AECO US$. Opal US$.1 San Juan The latest TCPL Daily Operating Plan shows East Gate...restrictions being lifted later this month. Significant AECO discounts could continue until this time. Ventura US$.71 \ Chicago US$.77 Waddington US$3.1 Dawn US$.9 Boston US$.75 TGP Zone - Marcellus US$. Socal US$3.17 US$.7 Permian US$. Henry Hub US$3.1 All prices in North America has an integrated natural gas market. Prices are determined by regional supply and demand, and pipeline flows. Pipeline Flows Out of Western Canada Daily; 3 31 US Natural Exports Excluding Canada Daily; 1 11 The NEB approved new lower tolls for WCSB producers to......deliver gas to Dawn beginning on November 1 st.. 7.. 1 9 7 The ability of gas producers to move gas out of the WCSB to eastern markets and the US is a major factor in local natural gas prices. Source: Various Pipeline Companies 5.. 3.. 1. FERC has issued a letter authoring Sabine Pass LNG to......commence liquefaction and export activities from Train. US exports (excl. Canada) of gas hit a record high on Friday.. Between exports to Mexico and LNG shipments, the US is growing as a natural gas exporter. Robust US supply growth has driven this trend. Source: Bentek ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. ARC Energy Charts
October 1, Natural 3 33 HDDs 3 5 15 1 5 US Weekly Heating Degree Days Source: NOAA We are now showing heating degree days. The -1 day weather outlook is warmer than normal. 1 7 1 13 1 19 5 31 3 37 3 9 5 Week Weekly natural gas demand is directly tied to the weather. The current year is in dark blue. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 13 1 11 1 9 7 5 US Total Natural Demand Daily; July 3, Total US demand fluctuates between Bcf/d in the summer and over 1 Bcf/d in the winter. Weather is the most important driver of consumption. Source: Bentek Total US Dry Natural Production 3 35 Daily Western Canadian Production Estimated Using Major Pipeline Receipts 7 71 5 59 5 53 Production was down in the Northeast for part of last......week due to infrastructure constraints; including a... 13...1. Bcf/d curtailment in Texas. 5 US production started ramping up in late 7 and continues to grow year over year. Source: Bentek 1 15 1 13 Despite significantly reduced prices in Q3, production......was essentially unchanged from average Q production. 1 This includes receipts on the TCPL, Alliance, WestCoast and Trans pipelines. Source: Various Pipeline Companies 3 37 Bcf 15 1 5 (5) (1) (15) () (5) (3) Weekly US Natural Storage Net Change Weekly Injection or (Withdrawals); 9 to Current US natural gas storage grew last week by 7 Bcf. This is slightly below typical for this time of year. (35) Tcf.5. 3..5. 1. Total Working Natural in US Storage Storage is now at a deficit of Bcf to the 5- year average. Earlier this year the surplus peaked at 395 Bcf..5 Weekly gas storage reports provide a snapshot of supply and demand. Current year changes are represented by the blue line. The EIA reports changes in US natural gas inventories held in underground storage facilities on a weekly basis. ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. ARC Energy Charts 7
October 1, Natural and Other Indicators 3 39 TransCanada Intra-AB Deliveries; Current Year and Historical Tracks 1 # of Rigs 5 15 1 5 Alberta Natural Demand 7. So far this year.5 natural gas demand has. averaged......3 Bcf/d over last year. 5.5 5..5. 3..5 Alberta natural gas demand has grown steadily in recent years, largely driven by new oil sands projects coming on line. Source: TransCanada Pipelines Weekly Canadian Oil and Drilling Activity Baker Hughes Average Rig Counts; Rolling -Month History According to the CAODC there were 19 rigs drilling in... Canada last week; a utilization rate of 3%. The utilization rate at this point last year was 1%. Rigs Oil Rigs Bcf 5 3 1 1 1 1 # of Rigs - Play Lev el Western Canadian Natural Storage Levels Weekly; Current Year and Historic Tracks According to Enerdata WCSB Storage at this gas storage is point last year 95.% full. was 97.% full. July 3, US Drilling Activity Baker Hughes Horizontal Rig Counts; 1 to Present Total US (Right Axis) Marcellus 1 Canada s natural gas storage level provides a good metric if the country is well stocked. Abnormally high or low storage can affect the basis. Haynesville Eagle Ford The US gas rig count fell by last week to 15. # of Rigs - Total 35 3 5 15 1 5 Oct-15 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb-17 Jun-17 Unlike US drilling activity, Canadian rigs are dispatched seasonally. Capital allocation by operators is driven by views of future oil and gas prices. Source: Baker Hughes Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-17 Jul-17 Tracking US gas drilling by major play provides insight into the composition of US gas supply and growth trends. Source: Baker Hughes Alberta Crown Land Sales Excluding Oil Sands Year-over-Year; Cumulative 3 $ Billions. 3..5. AB s last land sale brought in $15 million. This was the largest single land sale in nearly years. The total was driven by sales in the Duvernay. 1 11 1 1..5 13 15. Land prices are an important component of F&D costs. In Alberta, sales of petroleum and natural gas rights are held every two weeks. Source: Alberta Department of Energy Well Completions (s) 1 1 1 1 1 Canadian Cumulative Well Completions Current Year vs Years Prior Well completions so far this year have been tracking......% above last year; an increase of,11 wells. 11 1 11 1 1 31 3 1 51 Week Relative year-over-year drilling activity is highlighted in this chart. Cumulative well completions for the current year are shown in blue. Source: Daily Oil Bulletin/JWN 1 1 15 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. ARC Energy Charts
October 1, Canadian Industry Metrics Estimated Capital Flow in the Canadian Oil and Economy for Industry Revenue, Cash Flow, Reinvestment, Drilling Activity and Production $C 37.9 per BOE Oil & Prices 7. Million BOE/day Production Volume $C 97. Billion E&P Revenue We have updated our estimated well count for... Capital Flow in... the to,99 to reflect Canadian strong drilling so far this year. Oil and Economy G&A Royalties & Taxes Operating Expenditures Cash Flow $C 3. Billion CAPEX Exploration & Development Foreign Investment and Capital Outflow Dividends and Distributions Debt, Equity $C 3. Billion July 3, Reserve Additions,99 Wells Drilling Activity Service Sector Revenue Land, Acquisitions Canadian Industry Statistics: Historical Data and Forecast Canadian Industry Metrics P rice P ro ductio n Vo lume C apital Inflo w R einvestment D rilling Well Split Average Price Edmonton Par AECO Conv. Liquids Bitumen + Synthetic Natural Total Volume Total Revenue After-tax Cash Flow Conv. Oil and Oilsands Reinvest Ratio Wells Compl. Avg Rig Utiliz. Oil Wells Wells $/BOE $C/B $C/GJ Average M BOE/d Average M BOE/d M BOE/d M BOE/d (@ :1) (@ :1) $C millions $C millions $C millions $C millions x:1 #/ Year % % %. 1. 7.75 1,99 1,7,7 5, 15,5 3,55 3,93 1,113.5 1,77 1% 3% 5% 9.. 3.79 1, 1,331,51 5,3 9,57 3,,335 11,7.91,3 5% 1% 51% 1.1 77.55 3.79 1,3 1,3,3 5, 11,5 3,59 35, 17,195 1.1 1,119 % 5% % 11 55.3 95. 3. 1,73 1,,3 5,7 115,9 53,,139,91 1.1 1,7 5% 9% 31% 1 5..3.7 1,95 1,73,37 5,975 111,39,9 39,733 7,199 1.37 11,7 % 3% 17% 13 55.95 93.7 3.,3 1,9,33,3 1,77 5,711 3,15 3,9 1.35 11,71 % % 1% 1 1.1 95.7.3,,1,5,99 19,97 71,1,7 33, 1.1 11, 5% 7% % 15 35. 57.3.5 1,93,3,5,5,1,1 3,551,9. 5,3 % 9% 31% e 3.1 53.9. 1,9,1,57,93 1,19,71,5 1,9 1.3, 17% 7% 3% e 37.9.71.31 1,95,9,57 7,17 97,57 3,79 3,31 13, 1.1,99 % 7% 3% Advisories and Disclaimers: This document is provided for informational purposes only and none of the information contained herein is intended to provide, nor should be construed as, investment, financial, legal or other advice and should not be relied upon as such. Certain of the information and data contained herein has been obtained or prepared from publicly available documents and other sources prepared by third parties, and ARC has relied upon such information and data. ARC does not audit or independently verify such information and data and ARC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and data nor the conclusions derived therefrom. This document has been published on the basis that ARC shall not be responsible for, and ARC hereby expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for, any financial or other losses or damages of any nature whatsoever arising from or otherwise relating to any use of this document. Certain information contained herein may constitute forward-looking information and forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking statements include estimates, plans, expectations, intentions, opinions, forecasts, projections, guidance or other statements that are not statements of fact, including but not limited to global and industry economic conditions and policies, production, demand and commodity prices. Although ARC believes that the assumptions underlying and expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no (and does not give any) assurance that such assumptions and expectations will prove to have been correct. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors outside of ARC's control that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed herein. Neither ARC nor any of its affiliates undertakes any obligation to publicly revise such forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by law. ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. ARC Energy Charts 9