Economic Update & Analysis Sault Ste. Marie Economic Development Corporation September 8, 2014
Overview 1. Introduction 2. Conference Board of Canada Mid- Sized Cities Outlook 2014 3. SSMEDC Labour Force Analysis 4. Population Growth Update and Projections
SSM Population and Economic Data Statistics Canada National Household Survey (Every five years most recent: 2011) Labor Force Estimates and Survey (annual average and monthly survey with 3-month rolling average) Statistics Canada Census Areas Census Subdivision (Municipality of Sault Ste. Marie) Census Agglomeration (includes: Prince Township; Rankin Location- Batchewana First Nation; Garden River First Nation; and McDonald, Meredith and Aberdeen Additional Township) Algoma Workforce Investment Corporation Local Labor Market Planning (LLMP) Report (2012 2013) Destiny Sault Ste. Marie: Economic Indicators Report Currently at the draft stage
Statistics Canada Census Area Maps Sault Ste. Marie Census Subdivision Sault Ste. Marie Census Agglomeration Detailed Statistical Information Available through National Household Survey every 5 years Labour Force Survey & Estimates available for Census Agglomeration area on an annual and monthly basis
Mid-Sized Cities Outlook 2014 Indicators based on SSM Census Agglomeration Population in rural areas shrinking but growing in municipality Statistics Canada Labor Force Survey Estimates for 2014 YTD average show: Higher employment levels and lower unemployment levels than Conference Board forecasts, along with GDP growth for 2014 and 2015
Mid-Sized Cities Outlook 2014 Modest growth forecasted in GDP: All industrial sectors, except for business services and noncommercial services Higher than average growth in wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and primary industries and utilities Sectoral Employment: In contrast to the Conference Board of Canada s forecast of reduction in Sault Ste. Marie employment in 2014 and 2015 primarily in the service sector recent Statistics Canada Labor Force Survey estimates show growth in the local labour force and the number of persons employed
SSM Labour Force Survey Estimates (2008 - Aug 2014) Labour Force Characteristics 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 2009-11 Avg. Med. Max. Min. Labour Force Population 69,500 6 9,400 69,300 69,200 68,800 68,200 67,880 68,000 67,900 67,900 67,800 67,800 69,000 69,200 69,500 68,000 Labour Force 42,500 40,100 42,200 40,300 37,100 40,500 42,000 41,700 41,600 42,400 42,600 42,700 40,600 40,800 45,000 33,500 Employment 40.1 36,300 38,000 36,800 34,300 37,100 39,080 38,100 37,800 39,100 40,100 40,300 37,400 37,500 42,700 30,700 Not in Labour Force Unemployment Unemployment Rate % Participation Rate % Employment Rate % 2.400 3,800 4,200 3,600 2,800 3,400 3,120 3,600 3,900 3,300 2,400 2,400 3,200 3,100 5,400 1,300 27,000 29,300 27,200 28,900 31,600 27,700 25,700 26,300 26,300 25,500 25,300 25,100 28,400 28,200 35,400 24,500 5.6 9.5 10 8.9 7.5 7 7.85 8.6 9.4 7.8 5.6 5.6 7.9 7.7 13 3.3 61.2 57.8 60.9 58.2 53.9 59.4 62 61.3 61.3 62.4 62.8 63 58.9 59 64.7 48.6 57.7 52.3 54.8 53.2 49.9 54.4 58 56 55.7 57.6 59.1 59.4 54.2 54.3 61.4 44.6 Source: AWIC LLMP Report, March 2013, pg 21 and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Population > Age 15 (2008-2014) 70,000 69,500 69,000 68,500 68,000 67,500 67,000 Division Point for Terms of Council Labour Force Population: >15 years 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Source: AWIC LLMP Report, March 2013, pg 21 and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Actual Labour Force (2008-2014) 43,000 42,000 41,000 40,000 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 35,000 34,000 Division Point for Terms of Council Labour Force 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Source: AWIC LLMP Report, March 2013, pg 21 and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Employment (2008-2014) 41,000 40,000 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Division Point for Terms of Council Employment 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Source: AWIC LLMP Report, March 2013, pg 21 and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Participation Rate (2008-2014) 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 Division Point for Terms of Council Participation Rate % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Source: AWIC LLMP Report, March 2013, pg 21 and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Unemployment (2008-2014) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Division Point for Terms of Council Unemployment 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Source: AWIC LLMP Report, March 2013, pg 21 and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Not in Labour Force (2008-2014) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Division Point for Terms of Council Not in Labour Force 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Source: AWIC LLMP Report, March 2013, pg 21 and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Employment Rate (2008-2014) 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 Division Point for Terms of Council Employment Rate % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Source: AWIC LLMP Report, March 2013, pg 21 and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Unemployment Rate (2008-2014) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Division Point for Terms of Council Unemployment Rate % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Source: AWIC LLMP Report, March 2013, pg 21 and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
Year Population Growth Projections Data 0% population growth (Stats. Can. Data).1% population growth.25% population growth.5% population growth.75% population growth 1.00% population growth 2001 74,566 74,566 74,566 74,566 74,566 74,566 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 74,948 * 74,948 * 74,948 * 74,948 * 74,948 * 74,948 * 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 75,141 75,141 75,141 75,141 75,141 75,141 2012 75216 75329 75517 75705 75892 2013 75291 75517 75894 76272 76651 2014 75367 75706 76274 76844 77418 2015 75442 75895 76655 77421 78192 2016 75517 76085 77038 78001 78974 2017 75593 76275 77424 78586 79764 2018 75669 76466 77811 79176 80561 2019 75744 76657 78200 79770 81367 2020 75820 76849 78591 80368 82181 2021 75896 77041 78984 80971 83002 2022 75972 77233 79379 81578 83832 2023 76048 77426 79776 82190 84671 2024 76124 77620 80174 82806 85517 2025 76200 77814 80575 83427 86373-2001, 2006 & 20011: Statistics Canada National Household Survey for SSM census subdivision - 2012 to 2015: SSMEDC Projection
88000 86000 84000 82000 80000 78000 76000 74000 72000 70000 68000 Population Growth Projections.1% population growth.25% population growth.5% population growth.75% population growth 1.00% population growth 0% population growth STEP CHANGE MODEST GROWTH NO GROWTH
Future SSM Growth and Development Planning Highlights of Strategic Economic Growth and Development Initiatives undertaken since January 1, 2011: Deep Water Port Public/Private Initiative SSM/OLG Lottery and Gaming Modernization Initiative Downtown/Waterfront/Canal District Development ACR/Agawa Canyon Tour Train Revitalization Project 2012 CARHA Hockey World Cup Examples of SSMEDC Activity (2011 to present) 128 Business Start-ups and Expansions 1,147 Jobs Created or Retained $52 million total investment $82 in business development initiatives under review
Future SSM Growth and Development Planning Collective community efforts have resulted in mitigating the impact of the recession and, more recently, stimulated growth in the Sault Ste. Marie economy A broad range of community organizations, institutions and businesses are currently undertaking strategic planning processes to chart their future for the next 5 to 10 years Council will be encouraged to support the preparation of collaborative, sustainable SSM Growth and Development Stewardship Strategy to help drive forward the community's future
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