DRAFT Ravenna Comprehensive Plan Draft May 2008 1 A Profile of Ravenna This section examines demographic trends that will affect Ravenna. The analysis examines population and demographic dynamics, including future population, and economic factors that influence future directions for the community. Population History and Characteristics Important changes have occurred in the characteristics and dynamics of Ravenna s population. Over the past 45 years, Ravenna has seen both growth and decline from a high of 1,417 in 1960 to a population of just over 1,300 in 2007. Table 2.1 summarizes the historical population change in Ravenna and includes comparisons to other comparable Nebraska communities. Table 2.1 indicates: Ravenna s most significant growth occurred before 1960. Between 1960 and 1980 the city s population declined by 8.5%. While many rural communities continued to loose population during the 1980s, Ravenna s growth rebounded between 1980 and 2000. The Kearney and Buffalo County area has experienced strong population growth over the past 40 years, positioning Ravenna to capture some of that growth. Over the past forty years Buffalo County has experienced strong growth but this growth has occurred mostly in Kearney. While the rural areas have experienced population declines Kearney growth has outpaced any population loss in these areas. The 2007 estimated population for Ravenna is based on construction activity in the community while the rest of the communities are based on US Census Bureau estimates. Table 2.1: Population Change for Ravenna & Other Cities, 1940-2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Est. 2007 % Change 1960-1980 % Change 1980-2000 Ravenna 1,417 1,356 1,296 1,317 1,341 1,360* -8.5% 3.5% Buffalo County 26,236 31,222 34,797 37,447 42,259 43,954 32.6% 21.4% Kearney 14,210 19,181 21,158 24,396 27,431 29,385 48.9% 29.6% Red Cloud 1,525 1,531 1,300 1,204 1,131 1,011-14.8% -13.0% Springfield 506 795 782 1,426 1,450 1,535 54.5% 85.4% Stromsburg 1,244 1,215 1,290 1,241 1,232 1,156 3.7% -4.5% Tilden 917 947 1,012 895 1,078 1,042 10.4% 6.5% * Ravenna estimates are based on historic trends and construction activity Source: U.S. Census Bureau, RDG Planning & Design, 2008
2 DRAFT Ravenna Comprehensive Plan Draft May 2008 The economic growth from industries like Abengoa and Leprino ensured continued growth for Ravenna. While these new jobs have brought growth to the community, Ravenna has seen some population loss among individual age brackets or cohorts. Chart 2.2 and Table 2.3 review the city s age composition in 1990 and 2000 and indicate: While the city s overall population continues to age, Ravenna has been able to attract families to the community. A ten year comparison of Ravenna s age composition (Chart 2.2) shows that the percentage of younger adults has increased while the percentage of the city s oldest residents has decreased. However, these percentages are not a true reflection of in- or outmigration patterns. Comparing the city s predicted birth and death rates (Table 2.4) with the actual 2000 population provides a better understanding of the city migration patterns. There has been an out-migration of individuals 15 to 24, likely due to high school graduates choosing to attend college or move for employment opportunities. The dramatic loss of residents between 20 and 24 could also indicate a lack of housing appropriate to this age group. There has been an in-migration of individuals between the ages of 30 and 45. Because this age group often has children under the age of 15, there has naturally been growth among the city s youngest residents. Ravenna has also seen an increase in the number of individuals between the ages of 55-59, who typically are in the peak earning years of their lives. In-migration among older workers is likely a reflection of job growth and community appeal. Increases in population can also be seen among individuals ages 65-85. Ravenna s small town atmosphere, health services, and proximity to larger communities, makes it attractive to retirees. One of Ravenna s challenges will be to retain Baby-Boomers, who were 40 and over in 2000. As these boomers age they will have different needs in the areas of housing, jobs, and services.
DRAFT Ravenna Comprehensive Plan Draft May 2008 3 Table 2.3: Predicted and Actual Age Cohort Change Age Group 2000 Predicted 2000 Actual Difference (Actual Predicted) % Variance 1990-2000 Under 5 64 84 20 30% 5 to 9 69 105 36 52% 10 to14 93 108 15 16% 15-19 101 93-8 -8% 20-24 87 53-34 -39% 25-29 78 75-3 -4% 30-34 54 78 24 46% 35-39 84 96 12 14% 40-44 92 101 9 10% 45-49 83 86 3 4% 50-54 58 53-5 -9% 55-59 39 54 15 38% 60-64 37 35-2 -5% 65-69 41 49 8 18% 70-74 56 59 3 6% 75-79 55 67 12 22% 80-84 55 72 17 31% 85+ 86 73-13 -15% Total 1,232 1341 109 9% Population Projections Projecting Ravenna s population helps understand the future demographic character of the community and how that relates to the city s future land use and community services. A critical
4 DRAFT Ravenna Comprehensive Plan Draft May 2008 first step in the city s planning and policy decisions for future investments. By evaluating Ravenna s historic population and economic trends, along with construction activity, a projected future population can be formulated. Tables 2.4 and 2.5 provide insight into the city s natural population change, population scenarios, and recent construction activity. Based on natural population change, which calculates the number of births to deaths, the city s population will begin to decline. This is mostly due to the small number of residents between the ages of 20 and 30 in 2000. This population is essential if a community is going to experience growth in a projection model that looks only at births and deaths rates. With an aging community deaths will begin to outpace births. However, in the past Ravenna has been very successful at attracting residents in their 30s back to the community. The 2007 estimate by the U.S. Census indicates a loss in population for the community. General trends in rural areas across the country would support this approach, however, a closer analysis of Ravenna s economic activity, location, and historical trends would not support a population loss. During both the 1980s and 90s Ravenna experienced an annual growth rate of 0.2%. Based on construction activity, job growth, and a history of attracting young families it is assumed that the city can sustain this growth rate into the future. This Plan lays out specific community goals that can lead to further economic development within the community and the necessary supporting services for successful development. If the city is able to achieve many of these goals a 0.5% growth rate could be possible. Table 2.4: Projected Population 2000 2005 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Natural Population Change 1,341 1,297 1,292 1,272 1,268 1,276 1,282 1,276 0.2% Growth Rate 1,341 1,354 1,360 1,368 1,382 1,396 1,410 1,424 0.5% Growth Rate 1,341 1,389 1,403 1,424 1,460 1,497 1,534 1,573 Table 2.5: Ravenna Construction Activity 1998-2007 Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total Single-Family 1 1 1 2 2 1 4 4 16 Economic Factors Ravenna s economy is heavily dependent on the larger region and the larger markets of Kearney and Grand Island. While Ravenna provides numerous jobs in the manufacturing and various other service and professional sectors, which some people travel from Kearney and Grand Island to work at, its retail demand is heavily dependent on these larger communities. Although, many residents find that most of their day to day needs can be met in Ravenna.
DRAFT Ravenna Comprehensive Plan Draft May 2008 5 Employment Employment within a community can be assessed in two different ways. One is based on the resident s employment by occupation, while the other is based on a resident s employment by industry. Employment by occupation describes the kind of work a person does on the job, as opposed to the type of industry an individual works in, which relates to the kind of business conducted by a person s employer. For example a person might be an accountant (their occupation) for a major manufacturer (the industry). Tables 2.6 and 2.7 presents Ravenna s employment by occupation for 2000 compared to that of Buffalo County. Nearly 45% of Ravenna s residents are employed in service or sales occupation, while 23% are employed in management/professional occupations, and another 23% in Production/Transportation. During the 1990s the city s population increased by 24, while the number of employed residents increased by approximately 52. This is likely a reflection of the slight shift in population, resulting in an increased number of residents in their working years compared to the 1990 census (see Chart 2.2). The largest change occurred in education, health, and social services. Significant changes also occurred in the retail trade sector with nearly 62 jobs being lost. The health care industry is projected to continue to grow on a national level and is an important yet challenging area for many parts of Nebraska Table 2.6: Employment by Occupation, 2000 Buffalo County % of Total City of Ravenna % of Total Total Employed 23,404 100% 581 100% Management & Professional 7,067 30% 132 23% Service Occupations 3,842 16% 127 22% Sales 6,511 28% 128 22% Farming, Fishing & Forestry 308 1% 9 2% Construction & Maintenance 2,179 9% 54 9% Production & Transportation 3,497 15% 131 23% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6 DRAFT Ravenna Comprehensive Plan Draft May 2008 Table 2.7: Employment by Industry, 1990-2000 Change 1990 2000 1990-2000 Total 529 581 52 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, mining 33 25-8 Construction 16 29 13 Manufacturing 113 113 0 Wholesale Trade 19 15-4 Retail Trade 110 48-62 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 50 41-9 Information * 10 10 Finance, insurance, real estate, and rental 26 26 0 Professional, scientific, management, administrative and waste services 6 19 13 Educational, health, and social services 99 155 56 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food services 27 53 26 Other services 20 37 17 Public Administration 10 10 0 *New category in 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Income and Sales Tax Table 2.8 describes the income distribution for Ravenna, Buffalo County and the state as a whole. Ravenna s median household income is somewhat lower than both the state s and county s. However, it is comparable or exceeds Nebraska communities such as Broken Bow, Falls City, Ogallala, O Neil, Syndey, and McCook. Continued growth among residents 30 to 55 years old will likely support stable income growth in the community. Table 2.8: Income Distribution for Households by Percentage Under $15,000 $15,000-24,999 $25,000-34,999 $35,000-49,999 $50,000-74,999 $75,000- $99,999 Over $100,000 2006 Median Income Ravenna 14.04 12.14 15.94 18.22 25.62 8.35 5.69 $41,495 Buffalo County 12.19 12.45 13.13 17.79 22.25 11.14 11.04 $45,305 Nebraska 11.43 11.54 12.54 17.15 21.54 11.82 13.97 $47,668 Source: Claritas, Inc. 2007 Table 2.9 displays the net taxable retail sales for Ravenna, four other local communities, and Buffalo County. From 2000 to 2003 sales in Ravenna only increased by 8.5%, but from 2003 to 2006 sales increased by nearly 30%. While all of the communities experienced stronger retail sales in the later three year period, only Elm Creek experienced a more dramatic rise.
DRAFT Ravenna Comprehensive Plan Draft May 2008 7 In 2006 Ravenna s sales were nearly 2% of the total county sales, comparable to its 3% of the county population. Per Capita sales do provide some insight on where dollars are being spent. Kearney is a significant importer of dollars, attracting people from the region to spend their retail dollars. Although, Gibbon had a million dollars more in sales, Ravenna s per capita spending was greater. Table 2.9: Net Taxable Sales (In Millions of Dollars) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Per Capita Sales* Ravenna 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.7 8.3 9.0 10.0 7,405 Elm Creek 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.7 5.6 7.5 8.7 9,979 Gibbon 10.1 10.6 10.6 10.6 11.1 1.9 11.3 6,426 Kearney 437.0 453.9 481.4 493.0 518.9 542.0 559.4 19,277 Shelton 5.3 5.8 5.9 6.5 8.8 8.5 8.6 7,672 Buffalo County 469.5 488.3 517.0 529.3 559.7 584.7 604.2 13,844 * In whole dollars; Based 2005 Population Estimates Source: Nebraska Department of Revenue; U. S. Census Bureau Housing Values There is an interlocking connection between such demographic and economic factors as population trends, income, and employment. This discussion analyzes housing values and rent levels, in order to understand another facet of the city s economic character. Table 1.10 presents a comparison of housing values in Ravenna, Schuyler, Gothenburg, and Kearney. Kearney provides a regional perspective, while Schuyler offers a comparison to another community that is located between two larger population centers (Columbus and Fremont). Values for 1990 and 2000 are provided to compare the relative changes in housing values. The U.S. Census Bureau recorded Ravenna s median home value in 1990 as $18,200, which seems excessively low. Based on 2000 data, Ravenna s median home value in 1990 was likely lower but comparable to the other cities in Table 2.10. The information in Table 2.10 indicates: Ravenna s home value is the lowest of comparable communities and only 53% of the value of housing in Kearney. While Ravenna has added many new jobs, employees often commute to Ravenna for those jobs. One of the reasons for this could be a shortage of housing that meets their needs. In 2000 the Census Bureau estimated that the median household income in Ravenna was $32,875. For a household making $32,000 a year an affordable house would be priced between $64,000 and $80,000, well above the city s median value of $50,000. This likely indicates a lack of higher-end or move-up houses for residents in the community.
8 DRAFT Ravenna Comprehensive Plan Draft May 2008 Rent levels remained affordable, especially when compared to a fast growing community like Schuyler. Further analysis of Ravenna s housing market can be found in Chapter XX Housing Ravenna. Table 2.10: Comparative Housing Value Trends, Wayne and Other Communities Median Home Value Median Contract Rent 1990 2000 % Change 1990 2000 % Change Ravenna 18,200 50,100 175.3% 163 414 154% Schuyler 36,700 63,500 73.0% 204 470 130% Gothenburg 37,900 65,000 71.5% 179 456 155% Kearney 53,700 94,700 76.4% 273 426 56% Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Commuting Patterns In 2000 the average commute for a Ravenna resident was 21.1 minutes, indicating that a large number of residents work outside the community. New employment opportunities in Ravenna may have decreased the number of residents commuting. However, these businesses also provide transportation for the large number of employees that live in Grand Island. A tight development pattern and easy access around the city likely influences the higher percentage of residents walking to work compared to the remaining three communities. Table 2.11 Commuting Patterns for Wayne and Other Comparable Communities, 2000 Community Average Travel Time to Work % Who Walk to Work Ravenna 21.1 7.7 Schuyler 18.5 1.9 Gothenburg 12.2 2.5 Kearney 13.8 3.3 Source: US Census Bureau, 2000