SYSTEMATIX SHARES AND STOCKS (INDIA) LIMITED PCG Research Daily Forex Report as on Friday, October 05, 2018 Close % Chg. 35169-2.24 10599-2.39 58487 1.44 23785-0.80 27833 0.42 3232-1.10 26828 0.20 8025 0.32 2926 0.07 5437-0.99 12252-0.29 7418-1.22 4/10/2018 Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII's 5,387.49 8,148.12-2,760.63 DII's 6,132.11 4,308.52 1,823.59 Source - NSE Indices BSE SENSEX S&P CNX Nifty Bovespa (Brazil) Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Strait Times Dow Jones Nasdaq S&P 500 CAC 40 DAX FTSE Emerging Markets Asian Markets US Markets European Markets Trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) The finance ministry wants the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to consider more steps to improve liquidity in the system, including reducing the amount of funds banks must set aside with it, a senior ministry official said on Tuesday, amid a bubbling credit crunch in the Indian shadow banking industry. The RBI could also explore buying more bonds from the open market and open a special window for mutual funds to inject liquidity, the official told reporters. Prime Minister Narendra Modi s government faces a new challenge that could derail growth at a time when surging fuel costs and a slumping rupee are buffeting the world s fastest growing major economy. The RBI did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the proposed ideas. Late on Monday the RBI said it would buy 100 billion rupees ($1.38 billion) of government bonds via an open market operation, in a move to ease liquidity. The finance ministry, RBI and India s markets regulator have this week all said they all are closely monitoring the liquidity crunch that has hit non-banking financial companies (NBFC), and they stand ready to intervene. China s state planner called for further advancement in the country s $3.8 trillion digital economy, saying sectors such as big data and artificial intelligence (AI) will become drivers of job creation. The Chinese economy is in the midst of a long-term restructuring that has seen the decline of low-end industries and the emergence of higher-value factories that make robotics and drones. China will promote the digital transformation of traditional sectors, driving more workers to switch jobs and improve the quality of employment, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said. In recent months, Chinese government departments and agencies such as the state planner have been affirming their commitment to China s long-term development, which Beijing sees as a means to rely less on trade and other external drivers. An intensifying trade war with the United States, China s biggest trading partner, has obscured China s medium-term growth outlook and spells uncertainty for millions of Chinese jobs. Chinese state media has accused Washington of using trade to suppress China s development. China will make further inroads into areas such as the internet of things, big data, cloud computing and AI, and create more high-end jobs, the state planner said. Business morale held steady in Germany in September, propped up by consumer spending and construction, a survey showed, to leave the country on track for further growth even if a uncertain global economic outlook worsens. The Munich-based Ifo economic institute s business climate index edged down to 103.7 on Monday from an upwardly revised 103.9 in August. But the manufacturing sub-index dipped and companies scaled back their overall expectations slightly, suggesting a growing trade row between Washington and Beijing is weighing on exporters. The growth outlook is also clouded by an impasse in Britain s negotiations with its European Union partners over the conditions of its departure from the bloc next March. Economy Minister Peter Altmaier has said the economy was likely to grow around 2 percent this year. That would be less than both the government s forecast of 2.3 percent and the calendar-adjusted growth rate of 2.5 percent reached last year. As momentum in exports, its traditional engine of growth, slows, household spending and construction have become increasingly important drivers for Europe s biggest economy. Unemployment is at record lows and German consumers are reaping the benefits of rising real wages and cheap credit due to the euro zone s expansive monetary policy. The Ifo survey showed business sentiment improved in all sectors other than manufacturing.
Currency Table Product Exp. Date Open High Low Close % Change O.Int % Cng OI Volume ATP USD-INR Oct 2018 73.9100 74.0300 73.6675 73.8875 0.41 3064622 10.39 3285053 73.89 EUR-INR Oct 2018 85.0000 85.2575 84.7575 85.1500 0.00 94567-3.13 71645 85.01 GBP-INR Oct 2018 95.6525 96.1425 95.3500 96.0125 0.49 48880 5.36 69324 95.81 JPY-INR Oct 2018 64.7000 64.8650 64.5500 64.7300-0.03 27143-2.50 20918 64.73 MAJOR CURRENCY CROSS RATES Last Trade INR U.S. $ Euro U.K. en RBI Reference Rate 1 INR = - 0.0136 0.0118 0.0104 1.5423 Date Last Previous 1 U.S. $ = 73.737-0.8688 0.7683 113.904 USD 73.751 73.751 1 Euro = 84.847 1.1507-0.8841 131.08 EURO 84.626 84.626 1 U.K. = 95.925 1.3015 1.1306-148.25 YEN 64.490 64.490 1 en = 0.6471 0.0088 0.7629 0.0067 - GBP 95.390 95.390 Market Update ECONOMICAL DATA Market Update German Factory Orders m/m Name Rate % Change Name Rate % Change EURUSD 1.1507-0.05 German PPI m/m GOLD 31417 0.17 GBPUSD 1.3015-0.04 French Gov Budget Balance SILVER 38971-0.31 USDJPY 113.90 0.00 French Trade Balance CRUDE 5487-2.82 EURGBP 0.8841 0.00 Italian Retail Sales m/m NAT.GAS 234.2-1.80 EURJPY 0.00 0.00 Average Hourly Earnings m/m COPPER 457.2-1.61 GBPJPY 148.25-0.03 Non-Farm Employment Change ZINC 195.8-1.95 AUDINR 52.09-0.27 Unemployment Rate NICKEL 926.0-2.77 USDMYR 4.1430-0.05 Trade Balance ALUMINIUM 161.2-2.57 SPREAD MATRIX FOR USDINR SPREAD MATRIX FOR EURINR MONTH RATE OCT NOV DEC MONTH RATE OCT NOV DEC OCT 73.89 0.295 0.585 OCT 85.15 0.450 1.040 NOV 74.18 0.290 NOV 85.60-3.00 0.590 DEC 74.47 DEC 86.19-5.00 SPREAD MATRIX FOR GBPINR SPREAD MATRIX FOR JPYINR MONTH RATE OCT NOV DEC MONTH RATE OCT NOV DEC OCT 96.01 0.442 0.987 OCT 64.73 0.332 0.737 NOV 96.46-3.00 0.545 NOV 65.06-3.00 0.405 DEC 97.00-5.00 DEC 65.47-5.00
USD - INR OPEN 73.91 HIGH 74.03 LOW 73.67 CLOSE 73.89 % CNG 0.41 RS. CNG 0.30 VOLUME 3285053 OPEN INT 3064622 SUP RES 73.69 74.06 73.50 74.22 73.33 74.42 PIVOT POINT 73.86 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK USD - INR Rupee plumbed record lows as global oil prices rose and stocks and bonds weakened, heightening speculation that the central bank may hike interest rates more aggressively than earlier expected. The fall in the rupee also led to a sharp rise in government bond yields, due to increasing expectations that the RBI's monetary policy committee (MPC) could go for a bigger rate increase than expected on Friday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to raise rates for a third time since June to combat inflationary pressures as it grapples with a weakening rupee, surging oil prices and market instability sparked by a major non-bank finance firm s defaults. India's service sector expanded at a marginal rate in September amid reports of underwhelming market demand, survey results from IHS Markit showed. The Nikkei services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.9 in September from 51.5 in August. This was the lowest reading in the current four-month sequence of rising activity. Nonetheless, a score above 50 indicates expansion. The composite output index, covering both manufacturing and services, came in at 51.6, down from 51.9 in August. Despite a slight improvement in manufacturing, the score reached its lowest level in four months. In the service sector, weaker growth was closely linked to a broad stagnation of new business. Price pressures intensified, with higher fuel costs and a stronger US dollar raising the price of imported goods. Further, expectations remained in positive territory, whilst firms added to their staffing levels for a thirteenth successive month. Technically now USDINR is getting support at 73.57 and below same could see a test of 73.4375 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73.9325, a move above could see prices testing 74.1625. BUY USDINR OCT 2018 @ 73.95 SL 73.76 TGT 74.12-74.32. NSE
EURO - INR OPEN 85.00 HIGH 85.26 LOW 84.76 CLOSE 85.15 % CNG 0.00 RS. CNG 0.00 VOLUME 71645 OPEN INT 94567 SUP RES 84.85 85.35 84.56 85.56 84.35 85.85 PIVOT POINT 85.06 OUTLOOK EURO - INR Euro remained in range after reports that Italy plans to cut its budget deficit after next year eased concerns over the prospect of a wider deficit that had rattled markets. Italian newspapers reported that Italy s populist government will reduce its budget deficit targets for 2020 and 2021 to 2.2% and 2% respectively and stick with its plan for 2.4% for 2019. The government had originally said it would planned to run a deficit of 2.4% over the next three years which would have breached European Union fiscal rules, spooking markets and prompting criticism from the European Commission. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was to hold a cabinet meeting later in the day to discuss the situation. Italy needs to send its draft budget plan to the EC by the middle of October. Eurozone retail sales dropped unexpectedly in August reflecting the weakness in food turnover, figures from Eurostat revealed. Retail sales decreased 0.2 percent month-on-month, following a 0.6 percent drop in July. Italy's service sector growth accelerated in September, supported by stronger rises in activity and new orders, data from IHS Markit showed. The services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 53.3 in September from 52.6 in August. New orders grew at the fastest rate in three months amid reports of firmer underlying market demand. Technically now EURINR is getting support at 84.7425 and below same could see a test of 84.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 85.2425, a move above could see prices testing 85.5. BUY EURINR OCT 2018 @ 85.20 SL 85.00 TGT 85.48-85.60. NSE
GBP - INR OPEN 95.65 HIGH 96.14 LOW 95.35 CLOSE 96.01 % CNG 0.49 RS. CNG 0.47 VOLUME 69324 OPEN INT 48880 SUP RES 95.53 96.32 95.04 96.63 94.74 97.11 PIVOT POINT 95.84 OUTLOOK GBP - INR GBP remained supported as investors remained pessimistic about prospects for Brexit negotiations. British finance minister Philip Hammond will look to reassure businesses that they remain at the heart of the centre-right Conservatives plan for the economy, against a backdrop of heightened tension over Brexit. Britain s exit from the European Union next March has increased uncertainty for employers, with talks about the future relationship between the world s fifth largest economy and it largest trading partner becoming increasingly fraught. British service sector growth remained strong in September, but the pace of expansion eased moderately since August, survey data from IHS Markit showed. The IHS Markit/Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply services Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to 53.9 in September from 54.3 in August. However, any reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. New order growth eased marginally in September reflecting softer trends in business activity. But a number of firms suggested that political uncertainty had weighed on business confidence and been a factor behind tighter budget setting among clients. British service sector activity maintained strong growth momentum in September, survey data from IHS Markit showed. British factories perked up unexpectedly in September, halting a three-month run of slowing growth even though the bigger picture stayed subdued six months ahead of Brexit. Technically now GBPINR is getting support at 95.4575 and below same could see a test of 95.0075 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 96.25, a move above could see prices testing 96.5925. BUY GBPINR OCT 2018 @ 96.35 SL 96.00 TGT 96.58-96.80. NSE
OPEN 64.70 HIGH 64.87 LOW 64.55 CLOSE 64.73 % CNG -0.03 RS. CNG -0.02 VOLUME 20918 OPEN INT 27143 SUP JPY - INR RES 64.57 64.88 64.40 65.03 64.25 65.20 PIVOT POINT 64.72 OUTLOOK JPY - INR JPY remained under pressure as dollar seen supported boosted by a spike in Treasury yields following upbeat U.S. data and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that were seen as hawkish. Adding to the bullish mood, Powell said that the central bank may raise interest rates above an estimated "neutral" setting as the "remarkably positive" U.S. economy continues to grow. The dollar also was boosted after the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing activity index jumped 3.1 points to 61.6 last month, the highest reading since August 1997. The ADP National Employment Report also showed private payrolls jumped by 230,000 jobs in September, the largest gain since February. The services sector in Japan continued to expand in September, but at a sharply slower pace, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed with a two-year low services PMI score of 50.2. That's down from 51.5 in August, although it remains barely above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Japan's consumer confidence rose slightly in September, survey data from Cabinet Office showed. The consumer sentiment index improved to 43.4 from a one-year low score of 43.3 seen in August. Among subcomponents, the weakness in assessment of overall livelihood was offset by the growth in income and willingness to buy durables. Technically now JPYINR is getting support at 64.535 and below same could see a test of 64.385 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 64.85, a move above could see prices testing 65.015. SELL JPYINR OCT 2018 @ 64.95 SL 65.20 TGT 64.75-64.60. NSE