Global Markets Update QNB Economics 19 June 16
Executive Summary Key Takeaways Most advanced economy sovereign bond yields fell on heightened risk aversion due to a worse US outlook and data and rising Brexit fears The Yen outperformed as the risk-off environment encouraged safe haven flows to Japan and after the Bank of Japan refrained from easing policy Equity markets fell on heightened risk aversion Oil prices fell gradually all week on risk aversion, inventory and rig count data in the US The June 23 UK referendum on EU membership is likely to dominate markets this week Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 2
- - - - - Most advanced economy sovereign bond yields fell on heightened risk aversion due to a worse US outlook and data and rising Brexit fears Global Benchmark Yields (%, local currencies) Maturity 1-Jun 17-Jun Change in Yield (bps) Advanced Economies Week MTD* YTD* US 1 yrs 1.64 1.61-3.3-23.8-66.2 Germany 1 yrs.2.2 -.1-12. -61. France 1 yrs.39.43 3.9-5. -56.1 Italy 1 yrs 1.38 1.51 12.9 15.6-8.4 Japan 1 yrs -.14 -.15-1. -4.5-41.5 UK 1 yrs 1.23 1.14-8.8-28.5-81.6 Emerging Markets Bahrain*** 7 yrs 5.84 5.96 12. -12.7 11.4 Brazil 1 yrs 12.66 12.72 6.9-26.2-378.8 China 1 yrs 3.2 2.95-7. -2. 9. Egypt 9 yrs 7.7 8.15 44.7-54.8-129. India 1 yrs 7.49 7.5 1. 3. -25.9 Indonesia 1 yrs 7.65 7.63-1.6-24.4-111.5 Nigeria 1 yrs 14.6 14.34 28.3 96.8 329.3 Qatar*** 14 yrs 3.81 3.79-1.7-9.6-5.2 Russia 11 yrs 8.61 8.68 7. -16. -89. Saudi Arabia** 1 yrs 3.83 3.7-12.5 6. -39.1 South Africa 1 yrs 9.6 9.6.3-33.3-73.1 Turkey 1 yrs 9.67 9.73 6. -19. -11. Abu Dhabi*** 3 yrs 1.48 1.5 1.4 1.8-12.9 Dubai*** 4 yrs 3.6 3.4-1.8 4.1 14.1 The Fed still expects to raise rates twice this year, but lowered its rate projections for 17 and 18 and also revised down its outlook for growth Concern about Brexit increased as a number of polls suggested the UK was leaning towards a vote to leave the EU on June 23 US industrial production was lower than expected (-.4% vs -.2% expected) Heat Map Legend Rising Yields Falling Yields Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; *Month to Date and Year to Date; **1-year swap rate; ***USD denominated 3
- - - - - The yen outperformed as the risk-off environment encouraged safe haven flows to Japan and after the Bank of Japan refrained from easing policy Global Exchange Rates vs USD 1-Jun 17-Jun Change (%) Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD US Dollar Index 94.57 94.21 -.4-1.8-4.5 Euro Area* 1.13 1.13.2 1.3 3.8 Japan 16.97 14.16 2.6 6.3 15.4 UK* 1.43 1.44.7 -.9-2.6 Emerging Markets Brazil 3.42 3.42.1 5.7 15.9 China 6.56 6.59 -.4. -1.4 Egypt 8.83 8.87 -.4 -.4-11.7 Indonesia 13,294 13,339 -.3 2.3 3.4 India 66.76 67.9 -.5.3-1.4 Kuwait.3.3.1.4.8 Nigeria 199.5 199....2 Russia 65.49 64.75 1.1 3. 12. Turkey 2.93 2.93.1.8 -.3 South Africa 15.23 15.15.5 3.7 2.1 UAE 3.67 3.67 Bahrain.38.38 Oman.39.38 PEGGED Qatar 3.64 3.64 Saudi Arabia 3.75 3.75 With Brexit and weak US data, the yen became a favoured safe haven Pressure is building for the Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy but it refrained from doing so last Thursday, leading to yen strengthening Heat Map Legend Stronger Currency vs USD Weaker Currency vs USD Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Exchange rate quoted as amount of USD per currency unit in line with market convention, other exchange rates are amount of currency per USD 4
- - - - - Equity markets fell on heightened risk aversion Global Equity Indices 1-Jun 17-Jun Change (%) Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD US (S&P 5) 2,96 2,71-1.2-1.2 1.3 Europe (STOXX 5) 2,911 2,849-2.1-7. -12.8 Japan (Nikkei 225) 16,1 15, -6. -9.5-18. UK (FTSE ) 6,116 6,21-1.5-3.4-3.5 Emerging Markets Bahrain (BB) 1,1 1,116 -.3.4-8.2 Brazil (IBOVESPA) 49,422 49,534.2 2.2 14.3 China (Shanghai ) 2,927 2,885-1.4-1.1-18.5 Egypt (EGX 3) 7,756 7,428-4.2 -.7 6. India (CNX NIFTY) 8,17 8,17..1 2.8 Indonesia (Jakarta) 4,848 4,835 -.3.8 5.3 KSA (Tadawul) 6,7 6,581 -.4 2.1-4.8 Kuwait (KSE) 5,411 5,441.6.7-3.1 Nigeria (All Share) 27,233 29,247 7.4 5.7 2.1 Oman (Muscat 3) 5,886 5,81-1.3. 7.5 Qatar (Doha ) 9,837 9,783 -.5 2.6-6.2 Russia (MICEX) 1,94 1,877-1.4-1.2 6.6 S.Africa (J'burg ) 47,28 46,137-1.9-3.8.7 Turkey (Istanbul ) 76,887 75,431-1.9-3. 5.2 UAE (Abu Dhabi) 4,381 4,454 1.7 4.8 3.4 UAE (Dubai) 3,371 3,35-2. -.3 4.9 Brexit, weak data and downbeat economic assessments from the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England led to increased risk aversion The VIX, the market s fear index or measure of volatility, remained heightened at close to all week and almost reached 23 intraday on Thursday Heat Map Legend Higher Equity Index Lower Equity Index Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 5
- - - - - Oil prices fell gradually all week on risk aversion, inventory and rig count data in the US Commodity Prices* 1-Jun 17-Jun Change (%) Energy Week MTD YTD Brent 5.5 49.2-2.7-1. 31.9 WTI 49.1 48. -2.2-2.3 29.5 LNG 4.9 5.3 7.2 1.6-23.6 Precious Metals Gold 1,274 1,299 1.9 6.9 22.4 Silver 17.3 17.5 1. 9.4 26.4 Industrial Copper 4,51 4,552.9-2.5-3.3 Steel 6 622.3 1.1 64.1 Aluminum 1,573 1,615 2.7 3.8 7.2 Wheat 495 481-2.8 3.6 2.4 Corn 423 438 3.5 8.2 22. Cocoa 3,135 3,16 -.9 1.5-3.3 Oil prices bottomed at USD47 on Thursday before recovering back to USD49.2 on Friday Crude oil inventories declined less than expected (933k barrels vs 2135k expected) according to data released on Wednesday Gold and silver prices have been benefiting from heightened risk aversion, particularly related to Brexit Heat Map Legend Higher Commodity Prices Lower Commodity Prices Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Spot prices or nearest expiring future 6
The June 23 UK referendum on EU membership is likely to dominate markets this week Last Week s Data Review Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous Jun 13 China Industrial Production YoY May 6.% 6.% 6.% Jun 13 China Retail Sales YoY May 1.1% 1.% 1.1% Jun 14 Japan Industrial Production YoY Apr - -3.3% -3.5% Jun 14 US Retail Sales MoM May.3%.5% 1.% Jun 15 US Fed Meeting (mid of target range) Jun 15.375%.375%.375% Jun 15 US Industrial Production MoM May -.2% -.4%.7% Jun 16 Japan BoJ policy rate and statement Jun 16 -.1% -.1% -.1% Jun 16 Eurozone CPI YoY May -.1% -.1% -.1% Jun 16 UK Bank of England Rate Jun 16.5%.5%.5% Jun 16 US CPI YoY May 1.1% 1.% 1.1% Forthcoming Economic Events Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous Jun 22 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun -7. -7. Jun 23 UK Referendum on EU membership Jun 23 US Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Jun 94.1 94.3 Jun 23 US New Home Sales May 5k 619k Jun 23 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Jun 5.9 5.7 Jun 23 Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Jun 47.7 Jun 23 Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI Jun 51.4 51.5 Jun 24 US Durable Goods Orders May -.4% 3.4% Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 7
Two-Year Performance of Major Asset Classes Sovereign 1-Year Bond Yields Equities 3 2 US Germany 19 1 Advanced Economies* (left axis) Emerging Markets** (right axis) 1 1 1 17 1 9 6/14 9/14 12/14 3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15 3/16-1 Exchange Rates 15 1 6/14 9/14 12/14 3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15 3/16 Commodities 7 15 95 Dollar Index (left axis) EUR:USD (right axis) 1.4 1.3 1 Oil (left axis) Food*** (right axis) 9 85 1.2 3 75 1.1 7 1 6/14 9/14 12/14 3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15 3/16 6/14 9/14 12/14 3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15 3/16 Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * MSCI World Index; ** MSCI Emerging Markets Index;; ***S&P GSCI Agricultural Index, which includes wheat corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cocoa and cotton 8
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