Friday, August 12, 2016 For Private Circulation Only MAJOR COMMODITIES Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change Gold 05-Oct 31492 31262 31327-66 Gold (Oz) Oct 1350.40 1334.80 1342.50-1.80 Silver 05-Sep 47219 46477 46755-360 Silver (Oz) Sep 20.34 19.91 20.02-0.15 Crude Oil 19-Aug 2937 2754 2912 100 Crude Oil Sep 43.86 41.10 43.49 1.78 Natural Gas 26-Aug 174.20 169.30 170.20-1.80 Natural Gas Sep 2.61 2.53 2.55-0.01 Copper 31-Aug 324.05 321.20 323.70 2.05 Copper 3M 4855.00 4809.50 4848.00 26.00 Nickel 31-Aug 722.80 714.80 716.00-6.60 Nickel 3M 10815.00 10705.00 10730.00-100.00 Aluminium 31-Aug 110.50 109.65 110.35 0.75 Aluminium 3M 1658.00 1642.50 1652.00 10.00 Lead 31-Aug 122.65 121.40 122.40 0.95 Lead 3M 1838.50 1815.50 1834.00 15.00 Zinc 31-Aug 153.30 151.35 152.25-0.50 Zinc 3M 2292.50 2266.00 2278.50-5.50 News & Development The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in December, after the Nov. 8 presidential election, according to a Reuters poll that also predicted a pickup in economic growth but with still relatively subdued inflation. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength in early August that could help spur faster economic growth. OPEC members and non-members will discuss the oil market situation next month in Algeria, including any possible action that may be needed to stabilise the market, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said on Thursday. (Source: Reuters)
Gold Gold eased below $1,350 an ounce on Thursday as the dollar rose, and the Dow and S&P 500 touched record intraday highs, though uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. monetary policy prevented further losses for the metal. Prices have risen 27 percent so far this year, largely on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold off on further interest rate hikes. Rising rates lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. A Reuters poll showed that the Fed is likely to raise rates in December after the presidential election. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said this week that the central bank should raise rates further this year. Still, other countries are increasingly looking to increase stimulus. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates on Thursday. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. labor market was firming. Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Oct Sell @ R1 31100 31200 31327 31400 31550 We expect gold prices to trade negative on the back of profit booking after sharp up-move in prices. Silver Silver was down 0.17 percent at $20.03 an ounce, while platinum was 2.1 percent lower at $1,147 an ounce. Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Sep Sell @ R1 46200 46500 46755 47000 47300 We expect Silver prices to trade negative on the back of profit booking after sharp up-move in prices. Page 2
Crude Oil Oil prices jumped the most in a month, rising more than 4 percent on Thursday, after comments from the Saudi oil minister about possible action to stabilize prices triggered a round of buying and the International Energy Agency forecast crude markets would tighten in the second half of 2016. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-falih said OPEC members and nonmembers would discuss the market situation, including any action that may be required to stabilize prices, during an informal meeting on Sept. 26-28 in Algeria. The comments by the minister of the world's top oil exporter triggered fund buying and some short covering, giving a boost to prices, traders and brokers said. Many traders remain skeptical of the outcome of the meeting, expecting a repeat of the Doha meeting in April when talks fell through after Saudi Arabia backed out, citing Iran's refusal to join in a so-called production freeze. The IEA, which advises large developed economies on energy policy, forecast a healthy draw in global oil stocks in the next few months that would help ease a glut that has persisted since 2014 on the back of rising OPEC and non-opec supply. Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Aug Sideways 2870 2900 2912 2940 2970 We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways on the back of profit booking after sharp up move in prices. Natural Gas U.S. natural gas futures on Thursday edged lower to a fresh nine-week low on a slightly bigger-than-expected storage build and forecasts for less-hot weather over the next two weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities added 29 billion cubic feet of gas during the week ended Aug. 5, topping the 25 bcf estimated by analysts in a Reuters poll. That kept the front-month contract in oversold territory for a second consecutive day for the first time since March. In addition, the contract also declined for a sixth day in a row, its longest losing streak since December. Traders said the front-month was now down 15 percent from a recent 14-month high near $3 on July 1, due in part to the mountain of gas in storage and slow but steady production increases as pipelines exit maintenance outages. Despite smaller-than-normal injections since April, analysts still expect stockpiles to start the winter heating season in November at an all-time high after utilities left record amounts of gas in storage after the mild winter of 2015-2016. Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Aug Sell @ R1 166 169 170.2 173 175 \ We expect Natural gas prices to trade negative on the back of unfavorable weather conditions. Page 3
Base Metals Nickel, zinc and tin fell on Thursday, retreating from fresh peaks hit in the previous session as speculators booked profits from strong rallies so far this year. All three metals on the London Metal Exchange rallied on Wednesday to their highest since 2015 as a weaker dollar and a greater risk appetite spurred buying in the metals that have the brightest fundamental outlooks for this year. Volumes on the LME were lacklustre across the board. Mine suspensions by Manila's new government have helped to push up prices by more than 20 percent since June 1 as part of a sector review that is due to be completed later this month. Aug Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Copper Sell @ R1 320 322 323.7 325 327 Nickel Sell @ R1 705 710 716.0 722 727 Alum Sell @ R1 108.5 109.5 110.3 111 112 Lead Sideways 120 121 122.4 123 124 Zinc Sideways 150 151 152.2 154 155 We expect base metal prices to trade negative on the back of worries about demand from China. LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel Current Stock Change % Change 203925 187675 458450 2240425 369492-900 -425-625 -8075-900 -0.44% -0.23% -0.14% -0.36% -0.24% Page 4
DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT Fri, Aug 12 7:30am CN Industrial Production y/y 6.2% 6.2% High 7:30am CN Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 8.9% 9.0% Medium 11:30am EU German Prelim GDP q/q 0.3% 0.7% High 2:30pm EU Flash GDP q/q 0.3% 0.3% Medium 6:00pm US Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.7% High 6:00pm US PPI m/m 0.1% 0.5% High 6:00pm US Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.6% High 6:00pm US Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4% Medium 7:30pm US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 91.5 90 High For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000 Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal AVP ashish.shah@sushilfinance.com Sr. Research Analyst tejas.nikhar@sushilfinance.com Research Analyst mohit.agarwal@sushilfinance.com WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN. STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. Additional information with respect to any commodities referred to herein will be available on request. Sushil Global Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and its connected companies, and their respective Directors, Officers and employees, may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the commodities mentioned and may sell or buy such commodities. Sushil Global may act upon or make use of information contained herein prior to the publication thereof. This data sheet is for private circulation only. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its accuracy. We shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein at their own risk. Sushil Global Commodities Private Limited Member: NCDEX, FMC Regn.No. 00304 MCX, FMC Regn.No. 12240 Genius, 4 th Road, Khar (W), Mumbai 400 052. Tel.: 022-6698 0636 Fax: 022-6698 0606 E-mail: commodities@sushilfinance.com www.sushilfinance.com Page 5