December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com
December 2014 Why Portfolios Remain Diversified Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com
Voya Investment Management Global Perspectives World Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Global economic growth has nearly doubled in the last decade and increased by nearly one third since the peak just before the Great Recession. Fundamentals % of World GDP 2003 $37.9 Trillion 2007 $56.4 Trillion 2013 $73.4 Trillion United States 30 26 23 Emerging and Developing Economies 20 28 38 Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) as of 2013 4
Voya Investment Management Global Perspectives Developing Markets Drive Growth World GDP accelerated in the last decade, supported by the largest emerging markets, which now outproduce the largest developed economies, where generally higher debt levels hinder economic growth. Fundamentals World GDP 80,000 Gross Government Debt to GDP 140 60,000 120 G7 $ Billions 40,000 % of GDP 100 80 All Advanced Economies 60 20,000 40 Emerging and Developing Economies 0 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Data as of 12/31/13. Note: The G7 countries are comprised of the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database 14
Global Perspectives Global Consumer Global household consumption of goods and services has increased 100% in the last decade. The consumer contribution to global expansion is prodigious. Emerging markets now account for more than 50% of auto sales. Fundamentals Global and U.S. Consumption Automobile Sales (84.7 million units 2012) 45 40 35 World $41.6 AFRICA, 2% EUROPE, 23% $ Trillions 30 25 20 15 10 5 Global consumption increased 100% in the last decade U.S. consumption increased 50% in the last decade U.S. $11.1 ASIA/OCEANIA/ MIDDLE EAST, 47% CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA, 7% CANADA/ MEXICO, 3% UNITED STATES, 18% 0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 China is the number one auto market in the world and U.S. only accounts for 18% of global sales Data as of 12/31/12. Source: The World Bank, OICA 12
Voya Investment Management Global Perspectives Global Stock Fundamentals Emerging market equities appear to offer competitive profitability and balance sheet strength with valuations at or below those of S&P 500 and EAFE stocks. Valuation S&P 500 MSCI EAFE MSCI Emerging Markets P/E (next fiscal year estimated earnings) 16.5 14.7 11.7 Price to Book Ratio 2.6 1.6 1.4 Price to Cash Flow Ratio 11.5 8.8 7.2 Price to Sales Ratio 1.7 1.0 1.0 Profitability Return on Equity (ROE) % 15.7 10.7 12.2 Balance Sheet Strength Long-term Debt to Capital Ratio % 36.8 41.3 28.8 International Note: Valuation and Profitability figures are weighted harmonic averages, a statistical technique that reduces the effects of extreme outlying data on the average. Long-term Debt to Capital figures are weighted averages. Source: FactSet 53
Voya Investment Management Global Perspectives World Market Returns by Region USD Emerging market equity (EME) has often been a top performer but lagged in 2011-2013. Pacific ex-japan and the EME are again market leaders this year, while Japan and Europe-Ex-U.K. are the laggards. 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pac Europe Pac EME EME EME Japan EME EME S&P 500 Ex-Japan Ex-UK Ex-Japan S&P 500 Pac Ex-Japan 56.3% 29.6% 34.5% 36.4% 39.8% -29.1% 79.0% 19.2% 2.1% 21.7% 32.4% 11.8% Pac Ex-Japan EME Japan Pac Ex-Japan Pac Ex-Japan S&P 500 Pac Ex-Japan Pac Ex-Japan UK Europe Ex-UK Europe Ex-UK 47.0% 26.0% 25.6% 33.2% 31.7% -37.0% 73.0% 17.1% -2.5% 18.7% 28.7% 10.9% Europe Europe Pac Europe Europe Pac EME UK Japan S&P 500 Japan S&P 500 Ex-UK Ex-UK Ex-Japan Ex-UK Ex-UK Ex-Japan 43.6% 22.4% 14.8% 32.6% 17.5% -45.0% 43.4% 15.6% -12.7% 15.0% 27.3% 9.9% Europe Europe Japan UK UK UK UK S&P 500 Japan EME UK UK Ex-UK Ex-UK 36.2% 19.6% 11.3% 30.7% 8.4% -48.3% 33.9% 15.1% -14.2% 13.1% 20.7% 4.3% Europe Pac Europe UK Japan UK S&P 500 S&P 500 EME S&P 500 UK UK Ex-UK Ex-Japan Ex-UK 32.1% 16.0% 7.4% 15.8% 5.5% -47.1% 26.5% 8.8% -14.5% 13.0% 5.6% 1.5% EME International Pac Europe S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 Japan Japan Japan EME Japan EME Japan Ex-Japan Ex-UK 28.7% 10.9% 4.9% 6.3% -4.1% -50.0% 6.4% 2.4% -18.2% 2.9% -2.3% -0.8% Note: All data are based on equity indexes for each regional or country index and are total returns including dividends for each calendar year or partial year. Source: MSCI, Standard & Poor s, FactSet 47
December 2014 Two Important Economic Trends Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com
Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP Real GDP Year-over-year % chg 10% Real GDP 2Q14 Components of GDP 2Q14 nominal GDP, trillions USD $18 3.2% Housing 8% YoY % chg: 2.6% QoQ % chg: 4.6% $16 13.2% Investment Ex-housing Econom my 6% 4% 2% Average: 3.0% $14 $12 $10 $8 18.3% Gov t Spending 0% $6 68.5% Consumption -2% -4% Expansion Average: 2.2% -6% '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Quarter over quarter percent changes are at an annualized rate. Average represents the annualized growth rate for the full period. Expansion average refers to the period starting in the second quarter of 2009. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 9/30/14. $4 $2 $0 -$2-3.2% Net Exports 17
December 2014 US Equity Market Valuation Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com
Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index Equities 7 U.S. Equity: Valuation Measures Historical Averages Valuation 1-year 5-year 10-year 25-year Latest Measure Description ago avg. avg. avg.* P/E Price to Earnings 15.2x 14.2x 13.4x 13.8x 15.6x CAPE Shiller's P/E 26.3 25.0 22.1 22.9 25.2 Div. Yield Dividend Yield 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% REY Real Earnings Yield 3.8% 3.7% 4.2% 3.2% 2.2% P/B Price to Book 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.9 P/CF Price to Cash Flow 10.8 10.6 9.2 9.7 11.3 EY Spread EY Minus Baa Yield 1.8% 1.5% 2.1% 1.2% -0.7% S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E Ratio 26x 14% 24x 22x 20x 18x 16x 14x 12x 10x 8x Average: 15.6x Current: 15.2x '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. Baa Bond Yield 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% S&P 500 Earnings Yield (Inverse of fwd. P/E): 6.6% Moody s Baa Yield: 4.8% 2% '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Standard & Poor s, FactSet, Robert Shiller Data, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Shiller s P/E uses trailing 10-years of inflation adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend Yield is calculated as the trailing 12- month average dividend divided by price. Price/Earnings to Growth Ratio is calculated as NTM P/E divided by NTM earnings growth. Price to Book Ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price to Cash Flow is price divided by NTM cash flow. EY Minus Baa Yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price) minus the Moody s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield. *P/CF is a 20-year avg. due to cash flow data availability. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 9/30/2014.
Corporate Profits and Leverage Equities S&P 500 Earnings Per Share Operating basis, quarterly $27 $23 2Q07: $24.06 2Q14*: $29.45 Profit Margins 12% 10% S&P 500 Operating EPS % of Sales per Share 8% 6% 2Q14*: 10.0% 2Q14: 8.7% $19 4% 2% After-Tax, Adj. Corp. Profits, % of GDP $15 $11 0% '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Total Leverage S&P 500, ratio of total debt to total equity, quarterly 240% 220% 8 $7 $3 -$1 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 80% '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: BEA, Standard & Poor s, Compustat, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. *Most recently available data is 1Q14 as 2Q14 are Standard & Poor s preliminary estimates. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 9/30/14. 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% Average: 169% 3Q14: 101%
Voya Investment Management Global Perspectives U.S. Manufacturing The latest U.S. manufacturing report shows the highest level of manufacturing shipments and industrial production ever. Fundamentals U.S. Manufacturing (Value of Shipments in $ Billions) 600 500 Highest level ever Industrial Production United States 110 100 Highest level ever 400 300 Index Level 90 80 200 70 100 0 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 60 U.S. recessionary periods 50 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 U.S. Manufacturing data as of 09/30/14; Industrial Production data as of 08/31/14. Source: FactSet 11
Voya Investment Management Global Perspectives Tectonic Shift: Global Trade Economic growth fuels demand for imports, aggravating the trade deficit, which hit a 10-year low in the great recession as demand dwindled. Exports have since expanded, reaching their highest level ever. 0-10 -20 Trade Deficit (left axis) Recessions 250 Highest Export Level $198B 200 Tectonic Shifts $USD Billions -30-40 -50 Imports (right axis) 150 $USD Billions -60 100-70 -80 Exports (right axis) 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 50 Data as of 07/31/14. Source: FactSet 21
Voya Investment Management Global Perspectives Consumer as Game Changer At about 70% of GDP, the U.S. consumer is the game changer in the economic recovery. Consumption, income and retail sales have achieved all-time highs. Fundamentals U.S. Personal Income 12,000 500 14000 11,000 10,000 9,000 450 Highest level ever 8,000 $ Billions 12000 7,000 6,000 $ Billions 400 5,000 10000 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures 4,000 3,000 2,000 350 U.S. Retail Sales 8000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1,000 300 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Data as of 08/31/14. Source: FactSet 13
Consumer Confidence and the Stock Market Consumer Sentiment Index University of Michigan 130 Econom my 120 110 100 90 80 Aug. 1972-6.2% Impact on Consumer Sentiment from a 10% y-o-y rise in gasoline prices 10% y-o-y rise in home prices 10% y-o-y rise in the S&P 500 1% y-o-y rise in the unemployment rate May 1977 +1.2% Mar. 1984 +13.5% -0.8 08pts +1.9 +2.8-5.2 Jan. 2000-2.0% Average: 84.8 Jan. 2004 +4.4% Jan. 2007-4.2% Sep. 2014: 84.6 70 Mar. 2003 +32.8% Oct. 2005 +14.2% 30 60 Feb. 1975 +22.2% Oct. 1990 +29.1% Nov. 2008 +22.3% Aug. 2011 +15.4% 50 May 1980 Sentiment Cycle Low and +19.2% subsequent 12-month S&P 500 Index return 40 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: University of Michigan, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Peak is defined as the highest index value before a series of lower lows, while a trough is defined as the lowest index value before a series of higher highs. Subsequent 12-month S&P 500 returns are price returns only, which excludes dividends. Impact on consumer sentiment is based on a multivariate monthly regression between 1/31/2000 5/31/2014. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 9/30/14.