Nové zdroje rastu v krajinách Strednej a východnej Európy Juraj Kotian, Head of CEE Macro / Fixed Income Research Studené - 4. február 216
HR CZ HU PL RO RS SK SI CEE8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 GDP growth is expected mildly to slow down on average in CEE next year 5 4 GDP growth forecast in percent 215f 216f 217f 3 Euro Area 216f: 1.8% 2 1 Source: Erste Group Research, Eurostat 2
Millions Car manufacturing is still in the forefront but not linked to German manufactures solely 6 5 4 3 2 1-5% CEE car production in Europe -2% -5% CAGR 24-21: EU -.5% CEE 9.3% Mkt share: 24% GERMANY FRANCE SPAIN ITALY POLAND CZECH REPUBLIC 3x 4x 4x 4x SLOVAKIA HUNGARY ROMANIA SLOVENIA Suzuki; 146 8x Toyota; 72 Daimler; 162 SERBIA GM; 89 Total Production Fiat; 363 PSA; 37 Renualt; 458 Ford; 53 Hyundai; 631 VW; 1,268 Source: Erste Group Research, OICA 24 214 3
Mutual trade flows EU vs. China 1%/GDP, 1%/Exp. Exports to China EUR 165 bn 1) Weakening of China s economy and devaluation of yuan increase risk of imported deflation to Eurozone (in segment of consumer goods) EU EU exports 28% Transport Equip. 26% Other machinery 12% Chemicals 7% Agricultural products 4% Scientific instruments Total trade EUR 467 bn Imports from China EUR 32 bn 1) China exports CHN 29% Office & Telecom. Equip. 17% Other machinery 1% Clothing 5% Chemicals 2% Agricultural products 4%/GDP, 16%/Exp. 2) 1) for 214, 2) second after US Source: European Commission, own calculations Erste Group Research Secondary effects falling commodity prices (crude oil prices dropped about 2% YTD) may reinforce the risk that inflation will stay well below the target The ECB might revise its inflation forecast down in March and discuss further easing measures Given that the volume of foreign trade with China is relative low (exports at 1% of GDP, imports from China about twice as high), overall impact on EU economy should be muted. 4
Schengen area is being openly questioned 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Croatia Export structure in % of GDP It is in vital interest to keep the Schengen and avoid Czech Republic Exports to extra-eu Exports not to neighboring EU Exports to neighbouring EU Hungary Poland Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia fragmentation of EU Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia are the most open economies in the EU (exports to GDP are at about 8% of GDP) Hungary would be the most affected if internal boarders were rebuilt in the EU - about ¾ of its intra-eu trade would need to cross at least 2 boarders - potential problems with logistics Source: Erste Group Research, Eurostat 5
Detailed GDP numbers show more homegrown growth in CEE Gross fixed capital formation (y/y) Final consumption (y/y) 2 15 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 215Q3 6 5 214Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 215Q3 1 4 5 3 2 1-5 -1-1 Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Serbia -2 Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Serbia Source: Erste Group Research, Eurostat Source: Erste Group Research, Eurostat 6
Croatia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia HR CZ HU PL RO SK Serbia which is less dependent on new foreign funding Current account balance (% of GDP) Net iternational investment position 5 12 (net foreign liabilities as % of GDP) 1 21Q3 214Q3-5 8-1 6-15 4-2 2 27 214 Source: Erste Group Research, Eurostat 7
Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia CEE8 average -1.5-1.3-1.2-2. -2. -1.7-1.6-2. -1.5-2.9-3.1-2.9-2.8-2.6-2.7-2.9-2.6-2.2-2.5-2.6-2.4-3.7-3.7-3.2-4.8-4.3-3.8 Fiscal consolidation is to moderate next year in CEE and even to reverse in Romania -6-5 General government balance (% of GDP) 215f 216f 217f -4-3 -2-1 Source: Eurostat, Erste Group Research 8
Estonia Bulgaria Romania Latvia Lithuania Czech Rep. Sweden Denmark Poland Slovakia Finland Malta Netherlands Serbia Germany Hungary Slovenia Austria Croatia UK Euro area France Spain Belgium Cyprus Ireland Portugal Italy Greece Public debt ratios remain below the EA level in CEE; in Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Slovakia have stayed below 6% of GDP 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Gross public debt (% of GDP, 214) Source: Erste Group Research, AMECO 9
Investments into energy security, energy efficiency and defence will be a priority Decreasing energy intensity and investments into cross-border energy infrastructure is key Investment in and purchase of military equipment squeezed in CEE so far % of GDP 4% 3% 2% 1% % 267% Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP 218% Czech Republic 29% 185% 33% Source: IEA, Erste Group Research 26% 39% 266% 415% 238% 161% 155% Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia 1993 211 EU-27: 1% 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. Poland Croatia Romania Slovenia Czech Republic Source: NATO NATO benchmark (2%) Slovak Republic Hungary Personnel Operations, maintanace, R&D Construction Equipment TOTAL 1
Interconnectors and reverse flow The total CEE reverse flow capacity now stands at about 147 bcm/year 42 bcm/year of new interconnection capacity has been added within Eastern Europe and between Central and Western Europe over the last five years Gas prices in the Czech Republic and Slovakia have already converged to German gas hub Source: IPA Industry Insight 11
Bulgaria Czech Rep Croatia Germany Estonia Ireland Spain Italy France Cyprus Hungary Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Room for investments into hard infrastructure is still very much there For funding investments, EU funds could be excessively used Motorway density is still low in a number of CEE countries EUR 167bn in Cohesion Funds (214-22) + EUR 33bn Connecting Europe Facility Program Romania: up to EUR 24bn can be invested in the road network by 23 Poland: EUR 27.5bn for infrastructure projects (part of Infrastructure and Environment Program) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Motorway density (metres/sq. km) 199 212 Czech Republic: expected launch of a bulk of infrastructure investment worth almost EUR 9bn Source: Eurostat, Erste Group Research 12
Size-wise, private investments are much more relevant for boosting the growth potential 25 Private and public investments as % of GDP 25 2 21. 2 15 17.4 16.5 16.9 16.8 16.4 16. 16.9 15 1 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.7 3.9 4.3 4.8 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Private sector. % GDP, LHS Public sector, % GDP, LHS Investment, % y/y RHS 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 Source: European Comission, AMECO, Erste Group Research 13
Cyprus Ireland Portugal Spain Slovenia Bulgaria Greece Hungary Latvia Croatia Italy Austria Romania EA Germany Lithuania Malta Denmark Estonia France Finland Sweden Poland Belgium Slovakia Czech Rep. Netherlands GB Loan growth has finally picked up in several CEE countries 15% Annual increase of loans to private sector (as of July 215, % of GDP) 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% Source: ECB, Erste Group Research 14
Debt of non-financial corporates (% of GDP) CEE countries have much bigger potential for organic credit growth 2 15 1 Hungary Slovenia Italy Austria Finland Belgium Sweden Spain France Portugal UK Ireland Japan Netherlands Bubble size refers to level of public debt (as % of GDP) Denmark 5 Romania Lithuania Latvia Croatia Germany Slovakia Czech Republic Poland Low private debt Greece Medium private debt Excessive private debt High private debt 5 1 15 2 Debt of households (% of GDP, 212) Source: ECB, Erste Group Research 15
Inflation has remained depressed 4 3 Sep Oct Nov Dec 216 FC (Avg) 2 Euro Area target <= 2% 1-1 -2-3 Source: Bloomberg Croatia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia EA 16
...but not just because of energy, also core inflation is low 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 HICP Inflation (y/y %, December 215) CZ HR HU PL RO SI SK Total Energy Ex-Energy Falling energy prices (-4-1%) keep the inflation close to zero Low imported inflation from trading partners Romanian inflation depressed by cut of the VAT rate for food Some central banks in CEE might react to low inflation Inflation is to pick up next year in CEE due to base effect but staying still below inflation target Source: Erste Group Research, Eurostat 17
EUR Current oil price clearly below average 215 7 Brent oil price (EUR) 215 vs. 216 6 5 EUR 48.6 4 3-23% Ytd 216-58% vs. peak 215-47% vs. average 215 2 1 Jän Feb Mär Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez Brent 215 Brent price from 2.1.216 Average Brent price 215 Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group Research 18
Factors which temporary supported demand for government bonds but are not supposed to stay forever deleveraging of the private sector low inflation FED s ultra-low interest rate policy ECB s purchase program favourable treatment of government bond holdings in balance sheet on banks Are we heading to financial repression? 19
Jan-1 Jun-1 Nov-1 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 The bond market becomes more a more distorted Hungary: abolished 2w deposit facility and increased volume of IRS with the central bank incentivise banks to buy more sovereign debt Poland: introduction of the new banking tax (.44%) and exempting government securities from the tax base incentivise banks to buy sovereign Czech Republic: Excess liquidity related to FX interventions increase demand for CZK cash instruments Romania: Cut of reserve requirement ahead of issuance of FX debt will help to stimulate demand 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Shift in the structure of highly liquid assets of Hungarian banks (HUFbn) Government securities CB Bills 3M deposit 2W deposit Other Slovakia: ECB s asset purchase program moves the prices where the demand is not exisiting any more Liquidity has been drying on the bond market 2
Luxembourg Denmark Estonia Finland Sweden Ireland Netherlands UK France Latvia Cyprus Germany Greece Austria EA Malta Lithuania Belgium Portugal Spain Croatia Bulgaria Italy Poland Czech Rep. Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Romania CEE banks are already heavily loaded with domestic bonds; regulation may make them more expensive to hold (capital-wise) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Domestic government bonds held by domestic banks (as of Aug 215) as % of Assets as % of Capital and Reserves (rhs) 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Source: ECB, Erste Group Research 21
Debt issuance will increase in CEE in 216 Gross financing needs in 216 and cash reserve (% of GDP) 25% Gr. financing needs seen for 216 2% Cash buffer (the latest estimate) 25% 2% Gross financing needs and FX redemptions (% of GDP) 25% 2% 25% 2% 15% 15% 15% 15% 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% 5% 5% 5% % % HR CZ HU PL RO RS SK SI HR CZ HU PL RO RS SK SI Gr. financing needs seen for 215 Gr. financing needs seen for 216 FX redemptions in 215 FX redemptions in 216 After 2 years of absence, Hungary will tap international markets % % Romania will need to frontload the issuance to avoid getting under pressure ahead of elections 22
FX and bond yield forecasts downward risks at some yield forecasts Governm ent bond yields current 216Q1 216Q2 216Q3 216Q4 Croatia 1Y 3.81 3.9 3.8 3.9 4. Czech Rep. 1Y.53.49.52.55.57 Hungary 1Y 3.35 3.4 3.47 3.53 3.6 Poland 1Y 3.18 3.12 3.19 3.25 3.29 Rom ania 5Y 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.8 3. Slovakia 1Y.59.9.95 1. 1.5 Slovenia 1Y 1.54 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 Serbia 7Y 7.82 7.5 7. 7. 7. 3M Money Market Rate current 216Q1 216Q2 216Q3 216Q4 Croatia.92.9.8.8.8 3M forw ards - - - - Czech Republic.29.3.3.3.3 3M forw ards.3.21.16.14 Hungary 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 3M forw ards 1.36 1.28 1.26 1.27 Poland 1.7 1.38 1.23 1.24 1.24 3M forw ards 1.62 1.51 1.47 1.46 Rom ania.83 1. 1.2 1.3 1.4 3M forw ards.48.9 1.4 1.33 Serbia 3.46 3.4 3. 3. 3. 3M forw ards - - - - Eurozone -.16 -.25 -.25 -.25 -.25 Source: Erste Group Research, Bloomberg FX current 216Q1 216Q2 216Q3 216Q4 EURHRK 7.67 7.7 7.6 7.65 7.7 forw ards 7.68 7.69 7.71 7.72 EURCZK 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 forw ards 27.7 26.97 26.79 26.37 EURHUF 31.6 314. 315. 315. 315. forw ards 311.4 312.4 313.6 314.8 EURPLN 4.41 4.45 4.39 4.43 4.47 forw ards 4.42 4.44 4.45 4.47 EURRON 4.51 4.48 4.47 4.45 4.45 forw ards 4.52 4.53 4.54 4.55 EURRSD 122.7 122. 122.5 122.5 122.5 forw ards - - - - EURUSD 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 Key Interest Rate current 216Q1 216Q2 216Q3 216Q4 Croatia.5.5.5.5.5 Czech Republic.5.5.5.5.5 Hungary 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 Poland 1.5 1.25 1. 1. 1. Rom ania 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2. Serbia 4.5 4.25 4. 4. 4. Eurozone.5.5.5.5.5 23
Greece Italy Belgium Portugal France Ireland Hungary Germany United Kingdom Austria Netherlands Spain Poland Finland Sweden Slovenia Slovakia Czech Republic Romania Before the crisis, ratings had been well explained by differences in GDP per capita, inflation and competitiveness index 12 Average rating before the crisis 1 Implied rating: 8 6 4 -.15*gdppercapita -1.88*comp +.26*infl +constant 2 Insignificant: -2 Deficit Public Debt International Investment Position Rating Source: Erste Group Research, Bloomberg Implied rating by pre-crisis model 24
Greece Italy Belgium Portugal France Ireland Hungary Germany United Kingdom Austria Netherlands Spain Poland Finland Sweden Slovenia Slovakia Czech Republic Romania After the crisis, external imbalances and public debt levels have gained on significance 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 Average rating after the crisis Romania is the strongest candidate for rating upgrade Implied rating: -.16*gdppercapita.13*deficit.6*debt -4.12*iip 2-2 Insignificant: Inflation Competitiveness Index Rating Implied rating by post-crisis model Source: Erste Group Research, Bloomberg 25
In cash instruments, Romania is still relatively cheap, Slovakia expensive 5Y yields on Eurobonds vs. Rating 12 1 8 6 4 2 Slovakia 5Y yield vs. Rating Slovenia Poland Czech Republic Hungary Romania -.5..5 1. 1.5 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 -.5..5 1. 1.5-2 -4 5Y yield vs. Model implied rating Slovakia Czech Republic Poland Slovenia Hungary Romania Source: Erste Group Research, Bloomberg 26
Summary Car production in CEE is getting more diversified (it is not only VW) We will see more home-grown growth in CEE next year Investments in infrastructure, energy efficiency & security will stimulate the growth and enhance growth potential Credit to the private sector is picking up Inflation remains low more monetary easing in the sight Bonds are getting extremely expensive Romania s Eurobonds look as a good relative value trade 27
Contacts Erste Group Research (Vienna) Visit page www.erstegroup.com or type on Bloomberg ESTE <GO>. Fritz Mostböck, CEFA Head of Group Research +43 5 1 1192 friedrich.mostboeck@erstegroup.com Local Research Offices Bratislava Slovenska Sporitelna Head: Maria Valachyova +421 (2) 4862 4166 valachyova.maria@slsp.sk Coverage: Slovakia Juraj Kotian Head of CEE Macro/ FI Research +43 5 1 17357 juraj.kotian@erstegroup.com Zoltán Arokszallasi Senior Economist CEE Macro/ FI Research +43 5 1 18781 zoltan.arokszallasi@erstegroup.com Budapest Erste Bank Hungary Head: Jozsef Miro +36 (1) 235 5131 Jozsef.Miro@erstebroker.hu Coverage: Hungary Henning Eßkuchen Head of CEE Equity Research +43 5 1 19634 henning.esskuchen@erstegroup.com Gudrun Egger, CEFA Head of Major Markets & Credit Research +43 5 1 1199 gudrun.egger@erstegroup.com Bucharest Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) Head: R. Craciun +4 373 51 424 radu.craciun@bcr.ro Coverage: Romania Prague Ceska Sporitelna Head: David Navratil +42 224 995 439 DNavratil@csas.cz Coverage: Czech Republic, Poland Warsaw Erste Securities Polska Head: Magdalena Komaracka +48 22 33 6253 Magdalena.Komaracka@erstegroup.com Coverage: Poland Zagreb/ Belgrade Erste Bank Heads: Alen Kovac, Mladen Dodig +385 62 37 1383, +381 1122 866 akovac2@erstebank.com Mladen.Dodig@erstebank.rs Coverage: Croatia, Serbia 28