Brexit - What we know now - Industry Impacts
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1 Brexit - What we know now - Industry Impacts Joe Burke, Sector Manager - Beef & Livestock June 2017 AIDAN COTTER BORD BIA Growing the success of Irish food 28 JANUARY & horticulture 2009 CHIEF EXECUTIVE
2 Brexit Timeline - Update 23 Jun 16: UK Referendum: 52% for Brexit 13 Jul 16: Theresa May appointed PM 29 Mar 17: Article 50 triggered 8 Jun 17: UK General Election 19 Jun 17: Brexit negotiations began
3 Brexit Timeline - Outlook David Davis, UK Brexit Secretary Michel Barnier, EU Chief Negotiator 18-month negotiating period Agreement proposal to be ratified by Feb Mar 19: UK to officially exit the EU
4 Share of Irish food and drink exports destined for the UK by category, 2016 (%) Source: Bord Bia based on CSO
5 Distribution of Irish Beef Exports 60% 50% 52% 50% 46% 45% Irish Beef Exports % 535,000T (cwe) +5% 2.38bn -1% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2% 5% UK EU Internat'l Source: CSO, Bord Bia Estimates
6 UK Beef Market (2016 data) Population: 65 million Beef Consumption: 1,193,000 t. (18.2kg/capita) Beef Production: 914,000 t. Imports 421,000 t. / Exports 142,000 t. Ireland supplies 70% of UK beef imports Supplying key retail and foodservice customers Product profile well-matched: steer/heifer, grass-based, QA Source: AHDB, EU Forecast Mtg.
7 Beef Imports to the UK (Fresh & Frozen) by supplying country International 8% Australia, Brazil Other EU 22% Netherlands, Poland, Germany Ireland 70% Source: AHDB
8 Irish beef exports to the UK by market channel (% volume) OF UK RETAIL: FQ / VL S: 60.5% ROUND CUTS: 22% STEAK CUTS: 9.5% CARCASE: 8% Source: MII data, Beef Roundtable UK market of key importance for forequarter beef
9 Retailer Value & Volume Share Beef Top 3 retailers account for almost 50% volume share of beef Irish beef present in all three: Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury s Tesco Asda Sainsburys Morrisons Aldi Lidl Waitrose Beef Volume Beef Value Co-Op All Others Spend & Volume % - 52 w/e 29 th Jan 2017
10 Irish beef: Provenance, Quality Assurance and Freshness
11 Currency Exchange Rates Value of Euro in Sterling terms Average for 2016: 1: th Jun 2017: 1: Average for 2015: 1: 0.726
12 British Cattle Price Development in Sterling terms Sterling p/kg W/e. 10 th Jun: GB R3 steers average 87.5p = 4.23/kg (Source: AHDB)
13 Producer Prices: Ireland vs. UK & Continental EU 450 (c/kg excl VAT) UK R3 Steer Ireland R3 Steer Continental European R3 Young Bull (w/e 10/06) Irish Price 4.07/kg vs. UK 4.22 vs. Continental EU: 3.70/kg In Italy, R3 young bull price: 3.97/kg, Spain: 3.74, France: 3.72, Germany 3.66
14
15 Brexit Promotional Response Britain: Focus on British and Irish Beef commonality in the market Germany: New Sustainability campaign targeting high potential customers Netherlands: Protect position by focusing on welfare and raised at grass Italy: Premium positioning based on taste, sustainability, natural Other EU and International: Exploit opportunities for growth & diversification
16 Brexit - the Great Unknown Early days: initial focus on divorce arrangements to incl. financial commitments to EU, immigration & borders Phase 2 will outline the future UK-EU relationship Worst-case scenario (no agreement): WTO rules tariff rates of 3/kg plus 12.8% of value (boneless cuts) This would equate to a charge of 65%, on average, from 25% on fillets to 200% on manufacturing product.
17 Brexit - the Great Unknown Possible deal options may include: Remain in Customs Union (tariff-free trade with EU) Free Trade Agreement Tariffs: zero-rate, preferential rate or quota Long transitional arrangements May also impact on EU CAP budget Food safety & production standards to remain high priority Irish beef seen as a close alternative to British.
18 Brexit - What we know now - Industry Impacts Joe Burke, Sector Manager - Beef & Livestock June 2017 AIDAN COTTER BORD BIA Growing the success of Irish food 28 JANUARY & horticulture 2009 CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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