Abstract of the Federal Ministry. August2018

Transcription

1 Abstract of the Federal Ministry Abstract of the Federal Ministry of Finance s Finance smonthly monthlyreport report of August August

2 Contents Federal budget trends up to and including July Trends in federal expenditure by function 3 Trends in federal expenditure by economic category 4 Trends in federal revenue 5 Tax revenue in July Trends in general government tax revenue 6 Borrowing and guarantees 10 Debt trends for the Federation and its special funds 10 Guarantees 11 Calendar 11 Publication schedule of the monthly reports 11 Key dates on the fiscal and economic policy agenda 11 2

3 Federal budget trends up to and including July 2018 Actual target Actual¹ as of January -July 2018 Expenditure ( bn)² in % (year to date) +0.6 Revenue ( bn)² in % (year to date) +6.8 Tax revenue ( bn) in % (year to date) +6.6 Fiscal balance ( bn) Financing/use of surplus: Cash resources ( bn) Seigniorage ( bn) Movements in reserves 3 ( bn) Net borrowing4 ( bn) Any discrepancies in totals are due to rounding. 1 As per accounts 2 Excluding revenue and expenditure from internal offsetting 3 Negative values denote accumulation of reserves. 4 (-) debt repayment; (+) borrowing Source: Federal Ministry of Finance Revenue Federal revenue for the January July 2018 period totalled 196.2bn, an increase of 6.8% ( 12.5bn) on the year. Tax revenue (including EU own resources) increased by 6.6% ( 10.5bn). This can be attributed primarily to two baseline effects: The first is the return of approximately 6.3bn worth of nuclear fuel duty to energy supply companies in June 2017, following the Federal Constitutional Court s ruling of 13 April The second is the fact that payments of own resources to the EU were much lower in the first months of 2017 than they were in the same period this year, largely due to the effects of the new Own Resources Decision. Other revenue posted a year-on-year gain of 1.3bn (9.9%) in the January July 2018 period. This was mainly due to an increase in allocations from the Bundesbank s profits, with allocations totalling 1.9bn, up by 1.5bn over the same period last year. Expenditure Cumulative federal expenditure for the period from July 2018 totalled 193.2bn, an increase of 0.6% ( 1.2bn) on the year. Federal spending is separated into consumption and investment expenditure. In the January July 2018 period, consumption spending was 0.6% higher than in the same period of This was primarily a result of increases in military procurement spending (up by 14.2%) and ongoing grants to public administrations (up by 6.0%). Notable expenditure in the latter category includes federal grants to reimburse the Länder for social spending on basic income support for older people and for people with reduced earning capacity. This totalled roughly 900m in the fourth quarter of 2017, but the reimbursements were not paid until There was no such spending in the first quarter of Grants for other areas saw a below-average year-on-year rise in the January July 2018 period, tempering the increase in consumption 1

4 expenditure. More specifically, there was a significant rise of 2.9% in social security spending during this period, accompanied by declines in grants for pensions and benefits (such as spending on basic income support for jobseekers, which was down by 3.2%) and grants to companies. Interest expenditure fell by 7.1% on the year, also slowing the increase in consumption spending. Investment spending totalled 15.5bn. This figure is skewed slightly downwards by the fact that there have not yet been any actual outflows for the budgeted 2.4bn allocation to a special digital infrastructure fund, as the fund is currently still going through the parliamentary procedure. Investment spending was up by 0.7% on the year in the January July 2018 period. Fiscal balance The federal budget recorded a surplus of 3bn for the period from July Revenue and expenditure are subject to strong fluctuations over the course of the fiscal year and thus have an uneven effect on cash funds in individual months. Net borrowing also tends to fluctuate considerably over the course of the year. This means that the fiscal balance at this point in the year and the corresponding net borrowing figures are not reliable indicators of the end-of-year figures for the fiscal balance and net borrowing. 2

5 Trends in federal expenditure by function Actual target July 2017 Actual July 2018 (year to date) m share in % in m share in % in m in % General public services 77, , ,318 41, Economic cooperation and development 8, , ,744 3, Defence 36, , ,636 20, Government, central administration 15, , ,429 9, Revenue administration 4, , ,589 2, Education, science, research, cultural affairs 22, , ,020 10, Support for school and university students and 3, , ,022 1, training programme participants Science, research and development outside of 12, , ,070 5, higher education institutions Social security, family youth affairs, labour market 168, , , , policy Social insurance including unemployment insurance 111, , ,663 73, Labour market policy 37, , ,601 21, including: Basic income support for jobseekers under 21, , ,873 12, Book II of the Social Code Government housing and heating allowances 6, , ,777 3, under Book II of the Social Code Family assistance, welfare services, etc. 8, , ,862 5, Social benefits for the consequences of war and 1, , ,239 1, political events Health, environment, sport, recreation 2, , ,073 1, Housing, regional planning and local community 2, , ,725 1, services Housing, home ownership savings premium 2, , ,569 1, Food, agriculture and forestry 1, , Energy and water supply, trade and services 4, , ,692 2, Regional support measures Mining, manufacturing and construction 1, , ,301 1, Transport and communication 21, , ,862 10, Roads 9, , ,316 4, Railways and public transport 7, , ,867 2, Financial management 30, , ,012 18, Interest expenditure and borrowing-related 17, , ,373 14, expenditure Total expenditure 1 325, , , , Excluding expenditure from internal offsetting Source: Federal Ministry of Finance 3

6 Trends in federal expenditure by economic category Actual target July 2017 Actual July 2018 (year to date) in m share in % in m share in % in m in % Consumption expenditure 291, , , , Human resources expenditure 31, , ,211 19, Salary payments 23, , ,778 13, Pensions 8, , ,432 5, Operating expenditure 28, , ,549 14, Administrative expenditure (excl. 1, , human resources) Military procurement 10, , ,330 4, Other 16, , ,423 8, Interest expenditure 17, , ,370 14, Ongoing grants and subsidies 212, , , , to public administrations 24, , ,619 14, to other areas 187, , , , including: Companies 28, , ,882 15, Pensions, assistance, etc. 30, , ,103 17, Social security funds 117, , ,655 76, Other asset transfers Investment expenditure 34, , ,397 15, Financial assistance 24, , ,316 11, Grants and subsidies 21, , ,452 10, Loans, guarantees 1, , Acquisition of holdings; capital 1, contributions Fixed asset investment 9, , ,081 4, Construction projects 7, , ,086 3, Acquisition of movable assets 1, , Acquisition of real property General reduction/increase in X expenditure Total expenditure 1 325, , , , Excluding expenditure from internal offsetting Source: Federal Ministry of Finance 4

7 Trends in federal revenue Actual target July 2017 Actual July 2018 (year to date) in m share in % in m share in % in m in % Tax revenue 309, , , , Federal share of joint taxes: 252, , , , Income tax and corporation tax 136, , ,684 81, (incl. final withholding tax on interest and capital gains) of which: Wages tax 83, , ,238 48, Assessed income tax 25, , ,449 13, Non-assessed tax on earnings 10, , ,676 8, Final withholding tax on interest 3, , ,036 2, and capital gains Corporation tax 14, , ,285 9, Value added taxes (VAT) 114, , ,258 66, Trade tax apportionment 1, , Energy duty 41, , ,517 18, Tobacco duty 14, , ,478 7, Solidarity surcharge 17, , ,266 10, Insurance tax 13, , ,196 9, Electricity duty 6, , ,061 4, Motor vehicle tax 8, , ,628 5, Nuclear fuel duty -7, ,284 0 X Alcohol duty 2, , ,229 1, Coffee duty 1, , Aviation tax 1, , Deductions Supplementary grants to Länder 9,229 X 8,545 X 4,761 4, EU own resources (GNI-based) 14,258 X 22,610 X 7,121 11, EU own resources (VAT-based) 2,362 X 2,510 X 1,378 1, Grants to Länder for public transport 8,348 X 8,498 X 4,869 4, Grants to Länder for motor vehicle tax 8,992 X 8,992 X 4,496 4, and HGV toll Other revenue 21, , ,007 14, Revenue from economic activity 3, , ,826 4, Interest revenue Loan repayments, holdings, 1, , , privatisation proceeds Total revenue 1 330, , , , Excluding revenue from internal offsetting Source: Federal Ministry of Finance 5

8 Tax revenue in July trends in tax revenue (excluding local authority taxes) 1 Joint taxes 2018 July July 2018 estimates 4 in m in % in m in % in m in % Wages tax 2 18, , , Assessed income tax -644 X 31, , Non-assessed taxes on earnings 4, , , Final withholding tax on interest and capital gains (including the former withholding tax on , , interest income) Corporation tax -506 X 18, , Value added taxes (VAT) 19, , , Trade tax apportionment 1, , , Increased trade tax apportionment , , Total joint taxes 43, , , Taxes accruing to the Federation Energy duty 3, , , Tobacco duty 1, , , Alcohol duty (formerly spirits duty) , , Insurance tax , , Electricity duty , , Motor vehicle tax , , Aviation tax , Nuclear fuel duty 0 X 0 X 0 X Solidarity surcharge 1, , , Other taxes accruing to the Federation , Total taxes accruing to the Federation 8, , , Taxes accruing to the Länder Inheritance tax , , Real property transfer tax 1, , , Betting and lottery tax , , Beer duty Other taxes accruing to the Länder Total taxes accruing to the Länder 1, , ,

9 continued: 2018 trends in tax revenue (excluding local authority taxes) 1 July 2018 estimates 4 July 2018 in m in % in m in % in m in % EU own resources Customs duties , , VAT-based own resources , , GNI-based own resources 1, , , Total EU own resources 2, , , Federation 3 23, , , Länder 3 25, , , EU 2, , , Local authorities share of income and 3, , , value added tax Total tax revenue (excluding local authority taxes) 54, , , Methodology: Total cash income from the various taxes is recorded and allocated to the various government levels as stipulated by law. Tax amounts actually received in the current month by individual government levels may differ from the target amounts for technical reasons. 2 After deduction of child benefit refunds by the Federal Central Tax Office 3 After supplementary grants; any discrepancies with the table on trends in federal revenue are due to the methodology used (see footnote 1) 4 Source: Results of the Working Party on Tax Estimates of May 2018 Total tax revenue (excluding local authority taxes) was up by 2.9% in July 2018 over the same month last year. Revenue from joint taxes climbed by 2.3%. In particular, revenue from wages tax and from non-assessed taxes on earnings posted sharp year-on-year increases once more. Receipts from final withholding tax on interest and capital gains declined on the year. Revenue from taxes accruing solely to the Federation was up by 4.6% in year-onyear terms, while revenue from taxes accruing to the Länder was up by 10.5% on the year. EU own resources Transfers of own resources to the EU, including customs duties, fell by 1.7% on the year in July 2018, to roughly 2.3bn. Transfers to the EU are based on the planned financial framework for 2018, with fluctuations over the course of the year depending on the EU s financing needs at any given time. Overview of the January July 2018 period Total tax receipts increased by 6.7% on the year in the first seven months of Broken down by category, revenue from joint taxes was up by 5.5%, receipts from federal taxes increased by 14.3%, and the yield from Länder taxes rose by 7.3%. Distribution among the Federation, Länder and local authorities The Federation s tax receipts (after accounting for supplementary federal grants to the Länder) were up by 2.9% on the year in July Länder tax receipts recorded a year-on-year gain of 2.6%. Both the Federation and the Länder benefited from the good results from their respective taxes. In July 2018, the Federation also paid 800m in consolidation assistance to the Länder of Berlin, Bremen, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt and Schleswig-Holstein. The local authorities take from joint taxes was up by 7.9% on the year. 7

10 Joint taxes Wages tax Wages tax receipts again recorded strong growth in July 2018, with gross revenue from this tax increasing by 6.5% on the year. This reflected continuing employment growth and rising incomes in Germany. Child benefit payments which are financed from receipts from wages tax rose by 0.4% on the year in July One Land is experiencing problems with preparing the underlying data for child benefit payments, which continues to skew this figure. After adjusting for this, there was an increase of approximately 3% in child benefit payments, which puts the rise in gross wages tax receipts at roughly 7%. However, this effect had no impact on cash receipts. On balance, cash receipts from wages tax increased by 7.9% in year-on-year terms in July In cumulative terms, cash receipts from wages tax were up by 6.5% on the year in the January July 2018 period. Corporation tax Around 0.5bn in corporation tax refunds was paid out in July, generally a low-revenue month for this tax. Receipts from corporation tax amounted to approximately 0.2bn in the same month of Investment allowance payments had only a marginal impact on the outcome. Taken cumulatively, cash receipts from corporation tax were up by 9.9% on the year in the January July period. Assessed income tax Revenue from assessed income tax in July was also mainly generated from assessment activities, with gross receipts falling by around 1.0bn on the year. Employee refunds also posted a rise (of 11.8%). After subtracting these (along with investment allowance payments and owner-occupied homes premiums, which are negligible in terms of amount), net refunds of assessed income tax amounted to approximately 0.6bn in July In cumulative terms, cash receipts from assessed income tax were up by 0.8% on the year in the first seven months of Non-assessed taxes on earnings July 2018 saw a 5.5% year-on-year increase in gross receipts from non-assessed taxes on earnings. Combined with the decline in refunds paid out by the Federal Central Tax Office, which are financed from this revenue, cash receipts from non-assessed taxes on earnings rose by 6.6% in July. Hence the trend in revenue from this tax remained dynamic in July despite strong growth in previous months and a high 2017 baseline. Cumulative cash receipts from non-assessed taxes on earnings were up by 29.0% on the year in the January July period. Final withholding tax on interest and capital gains Revenue from final withholding tax on interest and capital gains fell by 5.8% on the year in July This is likely to be primarily due to a year-on-year decline in tax revenue from capital gains. Taken cumulatively, cash receipts from final withholding tax on interest and capital gains were up by 6.4% on the year in January July Value added taxes (VAT) Revenue from value added taxes posted moderate year-on-year growth of 2.1% in July 2018, despite a relatively high July 2017 baseline figure. Revenue from domestic VAT fell slightly, by 1.2% in year-onyear terms, while import VAT receipts rose by 12.7% on the year. Cumulative cash receipts from value added taxes were up by 2.8% on the year in January July

11 Taxes accruing to the Federation Receipts from taxes accruing solely to the Federation were up by 4.6% on the year in July However, this figure was slightly inflated due to two special factors. Firstly, revenue from tobacco duty was up by 29.1% in July, partly due to the fact that some of the June receipts were only recorded in July. Secondly, the strong growth in revenue from insurance tax (+16.6%) was the result of tax revenue from previous years being recorded. Solidarity surcharge also posted revenue growth (+3.3%). Electricity duty and motor vehicle tax were down on the year in July (by 3.0% and 1.2%, respectively). Trends in revenue from other taxes had only a minor impact on the overall results for federal taxes. Taxes accruing to the Länder Revenue from taxes accruing solely to the Länder was up by 10.5% on the year in July This was driven by a significant increase in revenue from real property transfer tax (+10.0%) and by a rise in inheritance tax receipts (+10.5%). The latter had a relatively weak July 2017 baseline, however. Receipts from betting and lottery tax also posted a significantly better result in July 2018, rising by 24.8% on the year. Yields from beer duty and fire protection tax were down in year-on-year terms, by 4.4% and 2.8% respectively. 9

12 Borrowing and guarantees Debt trends for the Federation and its special funds (in m) Debt level Borrowing (increase) Debt repayment (decrease) Debt level Change in debt level (balance) 30 June 2018 July 2018 July July 2018 July 2018 Budget borrowing 1,080,716 15,877-21,672 1,074,920-5,796 broken down by purpose Federal budget 1,039,312 15,856-21,672 1,033,496-5,816 Financial Market Stabilisation Fund 22, ,466-1 Investment and Redemption Fund 18, , broken down by debt type Federal securities 1,067,459 15,877-21,036 1,062,300-5,160 Federal bonds 710,379 4,780-21, ,160-16, year federal bonds 212,347 1, ,574 1, year federal bonds 498,033 3,553-21, ,586-17,447 Inflation-linked federal securities 62, , year inflation-linked federal bonds 7, , year inflation-linked federal bonds 55, , Federal notes 185,042 3, ,626 3,584 Federal Treasury notes 92,639 3,114-95,753 3,114 Treasury discount papers issued by the 15,049 3,707-18,755 3,707 Federation Other federal securities 1, , Securitised loans 8, , Other loans and ordinary debts 4, ,475 - broken down by maturity up to one year 153, ,439 5,718 one to four years 319, ,566 3,574 over four years 607, ,915-15,088 Additional information 1 Liabilities from the capital indexing of inflation-linked federal securities 4,276 4, Reserves in accordance with the Final Payment Financing Act (Schlusszahlungsfinanzierungsgesetz) 3,464 3, Liabilities resulting from the capital indexing of the nominal value are equal to the amount by which the underlying nominal value (issuance price) has increased, due to inflation, between the start date and the specified reference date. The reserves are the result of allocations made: - on a regularly scheduled basis, namely on each coupon payment date for inflation-linked securities (15 April of every year) (section 4(1) of the Final Payment Financing Act) and - on an exceptional basis, namely on each reopening date for inflation-linked securities (section 4(2) of the Final Payment Financing Act). Any discrepancies in totals are due to rounding. Source: Federal Ministry of Finance 10

13 Guarantees Authorised amount Amount allocated as of 30 June 2018 in bn Amount allocated as of 30 June 2017 Export credit guarantees Loans to foreign debtors, foreign direct investment, EIB loans Financial cooperation projects Food stockpiling Domestic guarantees International financial institutions Treuhandanstalt successor organisations Interest compensation guarantees Calendar Publication schedule of the monthly reports Reporting period Publication date September 2018 issue 20 September 2018 October 2018 issue September October 2018 November 2018 issue October November 2018 December 2018 issue November December 2018 Key dates on the fiscal and economic policy agenda 7 8 September 2018 Eurogroup and informal ECOFIN meetings in Vienna 1 2 October 2018 Eurogroup and ECOFIN Council meetings in Luxembourg 11 October 2018 Meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Bali October 2018 Annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bali 5 6 November 2018 Eurogroup and ECOFIN Council meetings in Brussels 11

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