Abstract of the Federal Ministry of Finance s Monthly Report

Transcription

1 Federal budget and fiscal policy figures Abstract of the Federal Ministry of Finance s Monthly Report August 2015 Federal budget and fiscal policy figures Federal budget trends up to and including July Trends in federal expenditure by function 3 Trends in federal expenditure by economic category 4 Trends in federal revenue 5 Trends in general government tax revenue 6 Tax revenue in July Federal borrowing and market resources 10 Guarantees 11 Publication schedule of the Monthly Reports 11 Key dates on the fiscal policy agenda

2 Federal budget trends up to and including July 2015 Federal budget trends up to and including July 2015 Trends in the federal budget Actual 2014 Estimated 2015 Actual 1 as of July 2015 Expenditure ( bn) Year-on-year change in % (year to date) -2.0 Revenue ( bn) Year-on-year change in % (year to date) Tax revenue ( bn) Year-on-year change in % (year to date) +7.7 Fiscal balance ( bn) Deficit financing through: Cash resources ( bn) Revenue from coin ( bn) Net borrowing/current financial market balance 2 ( bn) As per accounts. 2 (-) debt repayment; (+) borrowing Expenditure trends Federal expenditure up to and including July 2015 amounted to 180.8bn, a decline of 3.6bn ( 2.0%) on the year. This positive development continues to be driven primarily by the favourable trend in interest payments (which were down by 3.7bn). Revenue trends At 174.9bn, the Federation s revenue up to and including July surpassed the total for the same period last year by 15.8bn (+10.0%). Federal tax receipts totalled 154.3bn, a gain of 11.0bn (+7.7%) on the year. Other administrative revenue from July 2015 rose by 4.9bn (+30.9%) in year-on-year terms, reaching a total of 20.6bn. Fiscal balance The fiscal balance for the year to date stood at 5.8bn in July At this point in the year, figures on the fiscal balance still hold little indicative value. The cash funds available over the course of the fiscal year are subject to strong fluctuations and thus have an uneven effect on net borrowing. A reliable forecast of the fiscal balance for the whole of 2015 will not be possible until later in the year

3 Federal budget trends up to and including July 2015 Trends in federal expenditure by function Actual Estimated Actual July 2014 m Share in % m Share in % m July 2015 Year-onyear change in % (year to date) General public services 69, , ,740 37, Economic cooperation and development 6, , ,158 3, Defence 32, , ,129 18, Government, central administration 13, , ,291 8, Revenue administration 3, , ,202 2, Education, science, research, cultural affairs Support for school and university students and training programme participants Science, research and development outside of higher education institutions Social security, family youth affairs, labour market policy Social insurance including unemployment insurance 18, , ,261 11, , , ,637 2, , , ,866 5, , , ,156 95, , , ,098 65, Labour market policy 32, , ,708 19, of which: Unemployment benefit II under Book II of the Social Code Unemployment Benefit II, government housing and heating allowances under Book II of the Social Code 19, , ,949 12, , , ,255 3, Family assistance, welfare services, etc. 7, , ,369 4, Social benefits for the consequences of war and political events 2, , ,309 1, Health, environment, sport, recreation 1, , Housing, regional planning and local community services Housing, home ownership savings premium 2, , ,133 1, , , ,048 1, Food, agriculture and forestry Energy and water supply, trade and services 4, , ,455 2, Regional support measures Mining, manufacturing and construction 1, , ,381 1, Transport and communication 15, , ,511 7, Roads 7, , ,653 3, Railways and public transport 4, , ,809 2, Financial management 33, , ,193 23, Interest expenditure 25, , ,278 19, Total expenditure 295, , , ,

4 Federal budget trends up to and including July 2015 Trends in federal expenditure by economic category Actual Estimated Actual July 2014 m Share in % m Share in % m July 2015 Year-onyear change in % (year to date) Consumption expenditure 266, , , , Personnel expenditure 29, , ,327 18, Salary payments 21, , ,442 12, Pensions 7, , ,885 5, Current material expenditure 23, , ,605 11, Non-personnel expenditure 1, , Military procurement 8, , ,115 3, Other 13, , ,840 7, Interest expenditure 25, , ,278 19, Current grants and subsidies 187, , , , to public administration 21, , ,851 12, to other sectors 166, , , , including: Private enterprises 25, , ,224 15, Pensions, assistance etc. 28, , ,945 17, Social insurance funds 104, , ,836 68, Other asset transfers Investment expenditure 29, , ,719 12, Financial assistance 21, , ,451 9, Grants and subsidies 15, , ,548 8, Loans, guarantees 1, , Acquisition of holdings; capital contributions 4, , Fixed asset investment 7, , ,268 3, Construction measures 6, , ,834 2, Acquisition of movable assets , Acquisition of real property General reduction/increase in expenditure Total expenditure 295, , , ,

5 Federal budget trends up to and including July 2015 Trends in federal revenue Actual Estimated Actual July 2014 m Share in % m Share in % m July 2015 Year-onyear change in % (year to date) I. Tax revenue 270, , , , Federal share of joint taxes: 222, , , , Revenue from personal and corporate income taxes (incl. final withholding tax on interest and capital gains)) of which: 112, , ,772 66, Wages tax 71, , ,600 41, Assessed income tax 19, , ,902 10, Non-assessed taxes on earnings 8, , ,722 6, Final withholding tax on interest and capital gains 3, , ,377 2, Corporation tax 10, , ,172 5, Value added taxes (VAT) 107, , ,337 62, Trade tax apportionment 1, , Energy duty 39, , ,863 17, Tobacco duty 14, , ,370 7, Solidarity surcharge 15, , ,485 9, Insurance tax 12, , ,357 8, Electricity duty 6, , ,826 3, Motor vehicle tax 8, , ,224 5, Nuclear fuel tax , , x Spirits duties 2, , ,181 1, Coffee duty 1, , Aviation tax , Supplementary grants to Länder -10, , ,296-4, EU GNI own resources -22, , ,063-14, EU VAT own resources -4, , ,897-2, Grants to Länder for public transport -7, , ,258-4, Grants to Länder for motor vehicle tax and HGV toll -8, , ,496-4, II. Other revenue 24, , ,755 20, Revenue from economic activity 6, , ,333 5, Interest revenue Loan repayments, holdings, privatisation revenue 2, , ,065 2, Total revenue 295, , , ,

6 Trends in general government tax revenue Trends in general government tax revenue Current-year trends in tax revenue (excluding local authority taxes) July Year-onyear change July Year-onyear change 2015 estimates 4 Year-onyear change in m in % in m in % in m in % Joint taxes Wages tax 2 15, , , Assessed income tax -598 X 24, , Non-assessed taxes on earnings 4, , , Final withholding tax on interest and capital gains, , , Corporation tax -141 X 11, , Value added taxes (VAT) 17, , , Trade tax apportionment , , Increased trade tax apportionment , , Total joint taxes 39, , , Federal taxes Energy duty 3, , , Tobacco duty 1, , , Spirits duty incl. alcopops duty , , Insurance tax , , Electricity duty , , Motor vehicle tax , , Aviation tax , Nuclear fuel duty X 1, Solidarity surcharge 1, , , Other federal taxes , Total federal taxes 8, , , Länder taxes Inheritance tax , , Real property transfer tax 1, , , Betting and lottery tax , , Beer duty Other Länder taxes Total Länder taxes 1, , , EU own resources Customs duty , , VAT-based own resources , , GNI-based own resources , , Total EU own resources 1, , , Federation 3 22, , , Länder 3 23, , , EU 1, , , Local authorities share of income tax and value added tax Total tax revenue (excluding local authority taxes) 2, , , , , , Methodology: Total cash income from the various taxes is recorded and allocated to the various government levels as stipulated by law. Actual tax amounts collected in the current month by individual government levels may differ from target amounts due to technical reasons. ² After deduction of child benefit refunds by the Federal Central Tax Office. 3 After supplementary grants; any discrepancies with table on federal revenue are due to methodology used. 4 Source: Working Party on Tax Revenue Estimates, May

7 Tax revenue in July 2015 Tax revenue in July 2015 General government tax revenue (excluding local authority taxes) was up by 8.6% on the year in July Tax receipts continue to benefit from the positive performance of the overall economy. Revenue from joint taxes posted a gain of 9.6% compared with the same month a year ago, thanks mainly to ongoing positive trends in the take from wages tax and VAT. Receipts from non-assessed taxes on earnings also posted good results, recouping last month s revenue shortfall. In contrast, July revenue from final withholding tax on interest and capital gains failed to sustain the positive trend seen in previous months. Receipts from taxes accruing solely to the Federation were up by 3.2% on the year in July. Revenue from the solidarity surcharge also rose again thanks to the strong results for the taxes upon which it is levied (wages tax, corporation tax, and withholding tax on income from capital), which continue to benefit from the economic upswing. In contrast, the yields from energy duty and motor vehicle tax both posted year-on-year declines in July. Receipts from taxes accruing solely to the Länder continue to show positive momentum, especially as a result of ongoing revenue gains from real property transfer tax. EU own resources Customs revenue was up by 18.0% on the year in July. In addition, draw-downs of VAT- and GNIbased own resources 1 from the federal budget declined. Overall, payments of own resources to the EU were down by 27.5% on the year in July. Taken cumulatively, payments of own 1 Own resources calculated on the basis of each Member State s respective gross national income (GNI). resources to the EU fell by 0.9% in year-on-year terms for the period from July Overview of the January-July 2015 period In the seven months from July 2015, overall tax receipts climbed by 5.9% compared with the same period in Revenue from joint taxes was up by 5.3% on the year during this period. Federal tax revenue posted a yearon-year gain of 7.1%, but this growth rate is inflated due to a low baseline figure from 2014 resulting from refunds of nuclear fuel duty that were paid out in May of that year. Distribution among the Federation, Länder and local authorities The Federation s total tax receipts were up sharply by 11.0% on the year in July 2015, as revenue from both joint taxes and from taxes accruing solely to the Federation posted robust gains. In addition, payments of own resources to the EU declined, as did supplementary federal grants to the Länder. Furthermore, this figure takes into account a recent change in the distribution of VAT revenue: in accordance with legislation adopted on 24 June 2015 to (a) promote more investment by local authorities with inadequate financial resources and (b) help the Länder and local authorities pay for the cost of receiving and accommodating asylum seekers, approximately 300m from the Federation s share of VAT revenue was re-allocated retroactively to the Länder. In cumulative terms, the Federation s total tax receipts rose by a hefty 7.3% on the year in the period from July Länder tax receipts grew by 9.8% on the year in July 2015 despite the reduction in supplementary federal grants. This outcome was influenced by the Federation s assistance in paying for the cost of receiving and housing asylum seekers, which was reflected in a 7.7% - 7 -

8 Tax revenue in July 2015 increase in the share of VAT revenue apportioned to the Länder in July. In cumulative terms, Länder tax receipts were up by 5.2% on the year in the period from January to July Local authority revenue from joint taxes was up by 6.2% on the year in July, and by 8.2% in the first seven months of Joint taxes Wages tax Trends in wages tax revenue continue to reflect the favourable conditions affecting the general economy. As in previous months, the yield from wages tax is being boosted by sustained positive trends in employment as well as rising wages. In July 2015, gross revenue from wages tax was up by 5.4% on the year. Child benefit payments, which are financed from wages tax receipts, rose slightly on the year by 1.5% in July. Nevertheless, net wages tax revenue in July ended up climbing by 6.2% in year-on-year terms. In the period from July 2015, cash receipts from wages tax were up by 7.3% over the same period last year. Corporation tax Corporation tax receipts totalled 0.1bn in July, traditionally a low-yield month. This is a negligible amount given the fact that corporation tax revenue from July 2015 totalled 11.1bn. Overall, the yield from corporation tax was up by 7.8% on the year in the first seven months of Assessed income tax July tends to be a low-revenue month for assessed income tax as well. Receipts in July 2015 totalled 0.6bn, with cumulative revenue for the January-July period amounting to 24.9bn. This translates into a growth rate of 6.7% on the year for the first seven months of Non-assessed taxes on earnings Gross revenue from non-assessed taxes on earnings was up by 65.1% on the year in July 2015 after posting a 30.5% year-on-year decline in June. It is likely that this outcome was affected by a shift in the timing of revenue collection resulting from a corresponding shift in the timing of dividend payments compared with last year. Refunds from the Federal Central Tax Office were up by just 1.0% on the year and had only a marginal impact on July s results. Cash receipts for the month were up by 66.9% over July 2014, and by 6.3% on the year for the first seven months of Final withholding tax on interest and capital gains Revenue from final withholding tax on interest and capital gains was down by 17.0% on the year in July, thus failing to sustain the positive trend of the previous five months. In the first seven months of 2015, receipts from this tax recorded a gain of 8.3% over the same period last year. Value added taxes Revenue from value added taxes posted a solid 3.7% increase on the year in the month of July. This result was driven in particular by the sharp rise in import VAT receipts, which were up by 12.3% year-on-year in July. In contrast, revenue from domestic VAT increased only slightly by 1.0%. Overall, the yield from value added taxes was up by 3.0% on the year in the first seven months of The positive trend in import VAT is most likely a reflection of more dynamic import activity in recent months (imports rose by 1.6% in the second quarter in seasonally adjusted terms) as well as changes in the structure of imported goods

9 Tax revenue in July 2015 Taxes accruing to the Federation Receipts from taxes accruing solely to the Federation were up by 3.2% on the year in July Revenue gains were posted by tobacco duty (+16.0%), insurance tax (+1.4%), sparkling wine duty (+18.6%) and electricity duty (+4.9%). Thanks in particular to positive trends in wages tax revenue, solidarity surcharge receipts climbed by 7.8% on the year in July. In contrast, receipts from both energy duty and motor vehicle tax fell (by 3.6% and 10.6%, respectively). The baseline figure for motor vehicle tax continues to be distorted by last year s shift of administrative responsibilities for collecting the tax (which now falls under the remit of the customs administration); this had led first to revenue shortfalls in the first half of 2014 while the transition was taking place, and then to significant increases in revenue in the second half of 2014 as payment backlogs were processed. Cumulatively, revenue from taxes accruing to the Federation in the first seven months of 2015 was up by 7.1% on the year. This figure is influenced by the above-mentioned special factors in connection with nuclear fuel duty (i.e., suspended enforcement for most of 2014) and motor vehicle tax. Taxes accruing to the Länder Receipts from taxes accruing solely to the Länder were up by 12.8% on the year in July In particular, revenue from real property transfer tax surged again in July, posting a yearon-year gain of 30.9%. In contrast, inheritance tax and beer duty both recorded declines in revenue ( 7.4% and 12.9%, respectively). In cumulative terms, revenue from Länder taxes was up by 14.0% on the year in the period from July

10 Federal borrowing and market resources Federal borrowing and market resources Credit market funds (in m) 1 Reporting date: Increase Decrease Reporting date: 30 June July 2015 m Inflation-linked securities 73,500 1,000-74,500 Federal bonds (Bunds) 2 695,405 5,000 21, ,405 5-year federal notes (Bobls) 235,000 5, ,000 Federal savings notes 3 2, ,742 Federal treasury notes (Schaetze) 106,000 3, ,000 Treasury discount papers (Bubills) 27,535 5,010 4,001 28,544 Day bonds 1, ,126 Securitized loans 11, ,152 Other borrowing (year to date) Total credit market funds 1,153,229 1,146,334 By maturity Reporting date: Reporting date: 30 June July 2015 m Short term (up to 1 year) 199, ,205 Medium term (1 year to 4 years) 346, ,125 Long term (over 4 years) 607, ,004 Total credit market funds 1,153,229 1,146,

11 Guarantees Guarantees Guarantees Authorised amount Amount allocated as of 30 June 2015 Authorised amount as of 30 June 2014 Export credit guarantees bn Loans to foreign debtors direct foreign investment EIB loans KfW shareholding in EIF Bilateral financial cooperation projects Food stockpiling Domestic guarantees International financial institutions Treuhandanstalt successor organisations Interest compensation guarantees Guarantees for loans to Greece under the Monetary Union Financial Stability Act of 7 May Publication schedule of the Monthly Reports Publication schedule of the Monthly Reports Monthly Report Reporting period Publication date September 2015 August September 2015 October 2015 September October 2015 November 2015 October November 2015 December 2015 November December

12 Key dates on the fiscal policy agenda Key dates on the fiscal policy agenda Key dates on the fiscal policy agenda 4-5 September 2015 Meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Ankara, Turkey September 2015 Eurogroup and informal ECOFIN in Luxembourg 4-6 October 2015 German-Indian intergovernmental consultations in India 5-6 October 2015 Eurogroup and ECOFIN in Luxembourg 9-11 October 2015 Annual meeting of IMF and World Bank in Luxembourg Ovtober 2015 European Council in Brussels 9-10 November 2015 Eurogroup and ECOFIN in Brussels November 2015 G20 Summit in Antalya