Tourism Economics and Policy
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1 ASPECTS OF TOURISM TEXTS Series Editors: Chris Cooper (Oxford Brookes University, UK), C. Michael Hall (University of Canterbury, NewZeaiand) and Dallen J. Timothy (Arizona State University, USA) Tourism Economics and Policy Larry Dwyer, Peter Forsyth and Wayne Dwyer CHANNEL VIEW PUBLICATIONS Bristol Buffalo Toronto
2 Preface xvii 1 Overview 1 Tourism Demand and Forecasting 5 Tourism Supply and Pricing Strategies 8 Distinguishing the Economic Contribution, Economic Impacts and Net Benefits of Tourism 11 Measuring Tourism's Economic Contribution, Impacts and Net Benefits 12 Tourism Investment 19 Taxation and Tourism 23 Tourism and Aviation 25 Tourism and the Environment 26 Destination Competitiveness 31 Directions for Tourism Research 33 Tourism Demand and Forecasting 35 2 Demand for Tourism Introduction Factors Influencing Tourism Demand Demand for travel to a destination Demand for a tourism product Tourism Demand and Elasticity Price elasticity of demand Income elasticity of demand Cross-price elasticity of demand Marketing elasticity of demand 54
3 2.4 Modelling Tourism Demand Model specification Collecting data on the variables Specifying the form of the demand function Testing the econometric results Measuring Demand for International Tourism Arrivals Dependent variables Independent (explanatory) variables Conclusions and Policy 79 3 Forecasting Tourism Demand Introduction The Importance of Forecasting in Tourism Forecasting Approaches '" Qualitative Approaches to Forecasting Time-Series Approaches to Forecasting Components of a time series Smoothing techniques Forecasting tourism arrivals using time-series analysis Shortcomings of time-series approaches Barometric Techniques Econometric Approaches to Forecasting Specifying an econometric model The Quest for Forecasting Accuracy Evaluating forecasts No single 'best approach' A Hybrid or Integrative Approach Conclusions and Policy 129 Tourism Supply and Pricing Strategies Tourism Supply Introduction Tourism is not like other industries Tourism products are not like other products Factors Influencing Tourism Supply Tourism supply and price Tourism supply and non-price factors Tourism Supply and Elasticity Production, Costs and Supply 143 VI
4 4.4.1 Production Costs The relationship between production and costs Private costs and social costs in tourism Consumer Surplus and Producer Surplus Tourism Market Structure Structure-Conduct-Performance Market structure Conduct i Performance Public policy Tourism Supply Chains and Firm Structure _ Vertical integration Horizontal integration Strategic alliances Conclusions and Policy Strategic Pricing in Tourism Introduction Competitive Strategies M Competitive Pricing Strategies Marginal pricing Non-marginal pricing Non-competitive (Collusive) Pricing Strategies Cartel.' v Price leadership Hedonic Modelling to Inform Strategic Pricing Conclusions and Policy 206 Distinguishing the Economic c'bntrlbiitlon, EcrafflmsiB Dmpacfis a r t ie8 Benefits of Tourism Tourism's Economic Contribution, Economic Impacts and Net Benefits Introduction The Economic Contribution of Tourism The Economic Impacts of Tourism Direct effects Indirect effects Induced effects Leakages 219 vu
5 6.4 The Costs and Benefits of Tourism Economic impacts are not benefits Importance for policy Sources of Costs and Benefits Terms of trade effects Taxation, government revenue and subsidies Market power Underemployment Foreign exchange effect Externalities Economy-Wide Effects on Net Benefits Conclusions and Policy 233 Measuring Tourism's Economic Contribution, Impacts aid Net Benefits The Economic Contribution of Tourism: Tourism Satellite Accounts Introduction What is a TSA? The Importance of TSA ; TSA identify'tourism'and'tourist' TSA identify a tourism'industry' TSA measure the key economic variables TSA measure tourism's interrelationship with other industries TSA support inter-industry comparisons TSA support international comparisons TSA give 'credibility' to estimates of the economic contribution of tourism TSA provide a tool for tourism research and policy analysis Updating TSA RegionalTSA TSA as a Policy Instrument Direct versus indirect economic contribution of tourism Economic contribution versus economic impact Using TSA: Developing Measures of Tourism Performance Tourism yield Tourism productivity Calculating the carbon footprint of tourism Conclusions and Policy 279 vin
6 8 Economic Impacts of Tourism Using Input Output Models Introduction Purpose of Economic Impact Analysis The Tourism 'Multiplier' Keynesian multipliers Multipliers based on economic modelling Multipliers Based on I-O Models Structure of an I-O table The direct requirements matrix '.._. ^ Types of I-O multipliers Disaggregating I-O multiplier effects SAM multipliers Static versus dynamic I O models Use of I O multipliers in tourism economic impact studies Limitations of Tourism I-O Multipliers Restrictive assumptions How Tourism Multipliers are Misused Using 'inappropriate' multipliers Failure to recognise expenditure diversion 'Induced income'multipliers Misuse of'ratio' multipliers Using an inappropriate model Conclusions and Policy Economic Impacts of Tourism: CGE Modelling Introduction The Structure of a CGE Model The 'Nottingham' CGE model Static versus dynamic general equilibrium models Economic Impact Assessment Using CGE Models Increased tourism to Australia Increased tourism to Fiji Reduced tourism to Hawaii Effects of foot and mouth disease on UK tourism CGE measures of tourism yield Policy responses to the impact of 9/11 on US tourism Tourism and poverty reduction in Brazil Is an expansion of tourism good for the poor in Thailand? Strengths and Limitations of CGE Modelling Conclusions and Policy 362 IX
7 10 Cost-Benefit Analysis Introduction CBA When to Use CBA Analysing capital expenditure Analysing a policy option Retaining or disposing of an existing asset Post evaluation of a project or program Eight Main Steps in Performing CBA Determine the scope and objectives of the analysis Consider the alternatives Identify the impacts Value the relevant costs and benefits Discount the future costs and benefits Apply decision rules Sensitivity analysis Post-implementation review Other Issues in Conducting a CBA Shadow prices Double counting Income distributional effects Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Policy and Conclusions Economic Evaluation of Special Events Introduction The Logic of Government Support for Special Events Estimating Event-Related'New'Expenditure Setting the boundaries of the host region for the event 'New' expenditure The Economic Impact of an Event Challenges to Best Practice Event Assessment Failure to correctly estimate 'new' event-related expenditure Uncritical use of I O models to estimate economic impacts of events Uncritical use of sales (output and transactions) multipliers Relevance of the labour market Relevance of the jurisdiction Treatment of construction expenditure 426
8 Treatment of taxes Event subsidies Estimating the Economic Impacts of Events Using CGE Models Do event size and location matter? A practical solution: Focus on inscope expenditure CBA of Events The economic impacts of an event are not its'benefits' CBA of special events: Three case studies Improving Event Evaluation Conclusions and Policy 453 Tourism Investment Investment by Tourism Firms Introduction Categories of Tourism Investment Sources of Capital Investment Financing Generating Capital Investment Proposals The Optimal Level of Investment The rate of interest ' Selecting Capital Investment Projects Estimating cash flows for the project proposals Discounting The accept reject decision Reviewing investment projects after implementation Common pitfalls for tourism firms to avoid in capital ' budgeting Challenges Facing Tourism Investment Conclusions and Policy Investing in Tourism Infrastructure Introduction Public Infrastructure Investment for Economic Development Infrastructure Provision: The New Model Public-private partnerships Userpays The Congestion Problem in Tourism Infrastructure Regulating Tourism Infrastructure Environmental Constraints and Trade-Offs Infrastructure and Tourism Growth: Necessary but not Sufficient 506 XI
9 13.8 Tourism Infrastructure in Developing Countries Conclusions and Policy Foreign Direct Investment Introduction Patterns of FDI in Tourism Motives for FDI in Tourism Ownership advantages Location-specific advantages Market internalisation advantages Effects of FDI on Host Destination Potential Benefits of FDI to Host Destination Provision of capital Marketing and destination promotion effects Product and quality effects Increased inbound tourism creating income and jobs Technology transfer Potential Costs of FDI to Host Destination Crowding out of domestic investment Greater'leakages'from tourism imports Repatriation of profits Employment effects Loss of equity and control Inappropriate form and scale of tourism development Domestic Ownership versus Foreign Ownership Is it better for tourism projects to be domestically owned rather than foreign owned? Conclusions and Policy Implications 533 Taxation and Tourism Tourism Taxation Introduction Types of Tourism Taxation Effects of Taxation Excess burden Tax incidence Principles of Good Taxation Equity (Fairness) Efficiency Effective administration 554 Xll
10 15.5 Arguments for Taxing Tourism Provision of public investment Expansion and diversification of the tax base Tax base erosion Exporting taxes to non-residents Taxes to correct for environmental externalities Taxes to promote tourism destinations Arguments against Tourism Taxation Contraction of economic activity Retaliation Earmarking of Specific Tourism Taxes Conclusions and Policy 577 Tourism and Aviation Aviation and Tourism Introduction Aviation and Tourism - the Policy Conflicts Aviation Technology and Its Economic Consequences Cost structures Utilisation and pricing Booking systems New aircraft types The LCC phenomenon Airline Liberalisation and Tourism Growth The charter market.' Domestic de-regulation Liberalisation on long-haul markets Airport Capacity and Patterns of Tourism Taxing Tourism and Aviation Aviation and Tourism: Supply-Side Integration Aviation Alliances Conclusions and Policy 623 Tourism and the Environment Valuing the Environmental Impacts of Tourism Introduction The Potential Impacts of Tourism on the Environment 630 Xlll
11 17.3 Market Failure Lack of property rights to the environment The public good aspect of environmental resources Optimal quantity of a public good Externalities Environmental Preservation versus Development Valuing the Impacts of Tourism on the Environment: Total Economic Value Use value Non-Use value Estimating the Non-Use Value of Environmental Amenities Stated preference Revealed preference Imputed valuation Conclusions and Policy Economic Instruments and Environmental Protection in Tourism Introduction The Optimal Level of Pollution., Insights from Economic Theory Strategies for Pollution Control Voluntary agreements The bargaining solution Merger Direct controls Subsidies ' Tax on output Tax on emissions A market for pollution rights Other instruments of environmental protection Assessing Economic Instruments to Protect the Environment Uncertainty Boundary problems Transactions costs Public goods Conclusions and Policy Climate Change and Tourism Introduction Climate Change and Tourism: A Two-Way Interaction 709 xiv
12 19.3 Climate Change Impacts on Tourism Adaptation Policies for Tourism Tourism Impacts on Climate Change Measuring tourism's carbon footprint Tourism's global carbon footprint The carbon footprint of a destination Carbon footprint of different tourism markets Tourism's carbon footprint: Intensity versus impact Climate Change Mitigation Policies...-.._._ Impacts of climate change mitigation policies on tourism flows Market-based instruments Climate Change and Aviation Conclusions and Policy 749 Destination Competitiveness Destination Competitiveness Introduction Factors Underpinning Destination Competitiveness The Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index Destination Competitiveness by Niche Market Destination Price Competitiveness Determinants of destination price competitiveness Tourism competitiveness and government policy Tourism competitiveness and the macroeconomic environment Different Measures of Destination Price Competitiveness The Consumer Price Index Price indexes of tourism bundles Package tour prices Big Mac Index Purchasing Power Parity A comprehensive destination price competitiveness index Tourism Trade Weighted Index Aviation Trade Weighted Index Horses for Courses: Which Price Competitiveness Indicator? Conclusions and Policy 790 xv
13 Future Directions Future Directions for Research in Tourism Economics 795 Tourism Demand and Forecasting 796 Supply and Pricing 798 Economic Contribution and Economic Impacts 800 Costs and Benefits 803 Investment and Infrastructure 804 Taxation 806 Transport ; 807 Environment 808 Destination Competitiveness 810 References 812 About the authors 841 Index 843 xvi
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