The Russian pharmaceutical market. Marina Veldanova Managing Director Polpharma Russia
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1 The Russian pharmaceutical market Marina Veldanova Managing Director Polpharma Russia EGA ANNUAL CONFERENCE - ISTANBUL JUNE 2007
2 Agenda: 1. Russian pharmaceutical market vs. another ones. 2. RPhM s structure and trends. 3. RPhM s key drivers. 4. Investment case: Polpharma+Akrihin.
3 The Russian economics:1 (one) trillion of USD in П GDP,trl.$ GDP growth rate, % -5,3 7,2 6,4 6,7 5,8 Share from GDP 1990г., % 58,5 86,7 91,9 98,4 104,2 Inflation, % 84,4 11,7 10,9 9,0 8,0 Price for oil under the Brent mark, $/barrel 12,8 38,3 54,4 64,9 60,0 Credit rating S&P ССС- BB+ BBB BBB+??? Pharmaceutical market capacity, bln,$ 4,8 6,7 9,0 12,3 (10,7) 14,1 The source: MERY, Gskomstat, DSM Group
4 The Russian retail market is 10 according to its capacity and 1 according to its growth rate The volume of the retail market of FPPs in Russia and other countries ( 2006) market value, mln.$ 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 197,8 7% 3% 56,7 27,7-6% market value, bln, dollars growth rate, % 5% 25,6 5% 15,7 14,9 14% 7% 3% market volume 8% 2% ma 13,7 11,6 17% 11,4 28% 24% 8,4 8,4 8,1 5,8 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% USA Japan Germany France Grate Britain Italy Canada Spain China** Russia* Brazil Mexico Australia/New Zealand growth rate, % *the Russian pharmaceutical market volume according to DSM Group data **China 2005 The source: IMS Health, DSM Group «Monthly retail audit of RF Pharmaceutical market».
5 Growth rates and shares of the world leading markets, MARKET SHARE LESS THAN 5% MARKET SHARE MORE THAN 5% MARKET GROWTH OVER 10% UKRAINE BELARUS RUSSIA'06 KAZAKHSTAN TURKEY POLAND ITALY MARKET GROWTH UNDER 10% SPAIN GREAT BRITAIN FRANCE GERMANY The source: Pharmexpert, IMS Health
6 Russian generic pharmaceutical market is the second on size (after Germany) and the second on the growth rate (after Italy) in Europe Poland Other France UK Hungary Spain Czech rep Netherlands Romania Italy Portugal Switzerland Croatia Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Sweden Slovakia Austria Slovenia Norway Finland Ireland Russia Turkey Germany m
7 Per capita drugs consumption (in consumer prices, USD) in the market excluding the reimbursement program in Per capita drug consumption (excluding Reimbursement program), USD The source: Pharmexpert, 2007
8 Per capita drugs consumption in comparison with other countries* (consumer prices, USD) Germany France Italy Great Britain Spain Russia Turkey Poland Ukraine Czech Republic Kazakhstan Belarus The source: Pharmexpert, 2007 * Sorted by market size
9 The indicators of CIS Countries pharmaceutical market state in 2006 CIS country Market value in customer s prices, mln. USD Drugs consumption per head of population, USD Pharmaceutical market growth in 2006 in comparison with 2005, % Population size at the beginning of 2006, mln. of people Russia ,4 142,8 Ukraine ,4 46,7 Kazakhstan ,2 Uzbekistan ,4 26,1 Belorussia ,9 9,8 Azrbaijan ,9 8,4 Georgia ,3 4,5 Moldova ,8 3,6 Armenia ,7 3,2 The source: International statistics Committee of CIS countries, Accounts:Pharmexpert
10 Agenda: 1. Russian pharmaceutical market vs. another ones. 2. RPhM s structure and trends. 3. RPhM s key drivers. 4. Investment case: Polpharma+Akrihin.
11 Sales volume in the Russian pharmaceutical market, in consumer prices(bln. USD), including VAT 5,5 bln USD + 18% 6,35 bln USD + 15,5 % 8,4 bln USD + 32 % 10,7 bln USD +27,4 % Reimbursement program s volume = prescriptions accepted for payment in ,5% % % The source: Pharmexpert, 2007 Hospital Commercial retail Reimbursement program
12 Sales volume of the Russian pharmaceutical market, (bln. Units) 3,77 4,45 4,44 4,02 4,36 4,24 0,50 0,73 0,71 0,58 0,45 0,26 0,46 0,22 3,28 3,72 3,73 3,44 3,65 3, The source: Pharmexpert s estimations, 2007 Retail Reimbursement Hospital
13 Pharmaceutical market financing structure, Regional budget 11% Federal budget 29% 2006 Out-of-pocket 60% 2 % 9% 6% 23% Out-of-pocket 62% 9% 6% 21% % Commercial Retail Hospital Federal Reimbursement Program The source: Pharmexpert, 2007 Market Value = 100%
14 Market share of TOP10 corporations on the Russian pharmaceutical market in ,82% 5,91% Hospital Reimbursement Retail 31,33% 45,24% 58,82% 48,85% 2,90% 25,24% 71,85% 2,89% 8,08% 89,03% 6,14% 3,17% 18,36% 75,50% 30,91% 14,79% 22,46% 14,24% 10,07% 16,50% 14,80% 15,10% 10,27% 65,92% 62,75% 69,26% 75,12% 74,62% MS, % 6,10% 5,15% 3,19% 3,08% 2,97% 2,87% 2,84% 2,62% 2,59% 2,25% NOVARTIS SANOFI AVENTIS JANSSEN CILAG PHARM- STANDART BERLIN CH/ MENARINI SERVIER ROCHE GEDEON RICHTER PFIZER NYCOMED Monitoring of drugs Retail Sales, Hospital purchases, Federal Reimbursement Program, Pharmexpert, 2007
15 The Russian pharmaceutical market 2006 Commercial (%) Hospital (%) Reimbursment (%) 8% 17% 92% 83% 40% 60% Generics Innovative The Russian market is a Generic market! The source: Pharmexpert, 2006 wholesale prices+ VAT
16 Federal Reimbursment OTC & Rx MS (%) Value Terms in different market segments in 2006 Hospital Commercial Overall Market % 8% 48% 36% % 8% 49% 35% The source: Pharmexpert, 2007 RX OTC
17 Import & Local MS (%, value) in different segments Total market OTC Rx Hospital Reatil FRP Monitoring of drugs Retail Sales, Hospital purchases, Federal Reimbursement Program, Pharmexpert, 2007 Import Local
18 Rating of ATC groups by sales volume in 2006 RUSSIA GERMANY WORLD ALIMENTARY TRACT AND METABOLISM CARDIOVOSCULAR SYSTEM RESPIRATORY SYSTEM CENTRAL NERVOUS SYSTEM GENERAL ANTI-INFECTIVES SYSTEMIC GENITO-URINARY SYSTEM AND SEX HORMONES MUSCULO-SKELETAL SYSTEM DERMATOLOGICALS ANTINEOPLASTIC AND IMMUNOMODULATING AGENTS VARIOUS SENSORY ORGANS BLOOD AND BLOOD FORMING ORGANS SYSTEMIC HORMONAL PREPARATIONS (EXCLUDING SEX HORMONES) HOSPITAL SOLUTIONS PARASITOLOGY The source: Pharmexpert, 2007 DIAGNOSTIC AGENTS
19 Agenda: 1. Russian pharmaceutical market vs. another ones. 2. RPhM s structure. 3. RPhM s key drivers. 4. Investment case: Polpharma+Akrihin.
20 External key drivers Political factors Economic factors Social factors Elections Redistribution of interests in pharma industry Growing well-being of population High price for power resources Strengthening ruble WTO joining Population growth Growing influence of insurance company
21 Internal key drivers State funding Vertical integration of players M&A processes
22 Reimbursement program arrangement Ministry of Public Health and Social Development INN List Financing payment Regional Medical Insurance Fund State contract Roszdravnadzor Pricelist (TM list) Obligatory Medical Insurance Fund tender Reimb. drugs supplier drugs payment drugs Entering trademarks into list + pricing Manufacturer Pharmacy 22
23 MS (%) of all Federal reimbursement programs in the Russian pharmaceutical market, (consumer prices, VAT is incl.) 2004 MS MS increase increase 26,6% % % 38% 40% MS (%) of all Federal Reimbursement programs The source: Pharmexpert, 2007
24 Public Health system governmental financing, , per capita, RUR (USD) In 2006 per capita Public Health financing = RUR (229 USD) Increase 2006/2005 = 36,5% ,4 Financing increase 2006/2001 = 254% 2331, $73 $ ,1 $ ,4 $ , $ $ 270 $ 311 $ 353 $ * 2008* 2009* 2010* 24 *prognoses
25 Average retail price in different segments of pharmaceutical market: retail, hospital, Reimbursement 2004, 2005, 2006 Market Average price per unit, Average price per unit, Average price per unit, segment USD, USD, USD, Retail 1,32 1,53 1,87 Reimbursement - 5,00 10,28 Hospital 1,29 1,67 2,08 The source: Pharmexpert, 2007
26 Gap in funding in DLO according to the results of the year 2006 Consumption Payment Debt Payment (plan) 33,7 bln. Rubles. 65 bln. RUR. 16,0 bln. RUR. 15,3 bln. RUR $ = 26 Rbl The source: DSM Group
27 Vertical integration in Russian pharmaceutical market Pharmacy chain Distributors Manufacturing RIGLA + Soyuz Pharma PROTEK SOTEX PHARM MIR SIA PHARM CENTER, MAKIZ RADUGA ROSTA BIOTECH BIOTECH MARBIOPHARM, BIOSINTEZ etc ERMAK KATREN MOYA LUBIMAYA APTEKA ALLIANCE-HLTH* SHREYA SHREYA LIFE SCIENCES STARY LEKAR MORON PERVAYA POMOCH GENESIS VERTEX * Before 2006 Apteka Holding
28 Last years history on the Russian PhMarket the history of intensive investments into the manufacturing 1. Building the plants (Servier, KRKA, Gedeon Richter) 2. Acquisitions by domestic companies (Makiz, Pharmstandart) 3. Acquisitions by foreign companies (Stada, Actavis,Polpharma)
29 Agenda: 1. Russian pharmaceutical market vs. another ones. 2. RPhM s structure. 3. RPhM s key drivers. 4. Investment case: Polpharma+Akrihin.
30 Investment case 2007: Polpharma has acquired strategic stake of Akrikhin - the famous 70-years history plant situated near to Moscow in spring 2007.
31 Polpharma Established in 1935 Privatized in 2000 Leading company in Poland Selling products in 50 countries More than 50 years presents in Russia 5 years presents in Russia by Russian legal entity Russia 60% of the export market
32 2007 Akrihin: 70-years history Generic FDF New FDF (liquid & soft) Quality management New production site (WHO inspected - GMP compliance) Marketing and Sales force Cooperation projects FDF period 2005 Marketing period HTC owner Acq. by Polpharma 100 APIs production API export to 54 countries 15 FDF API period 1992 First Russian GMP production in cooperation with Bristol-Myers Squibb 1936 Production of anti-malaria drug Akrikhin started, enterprise established
33 Akrikhin investment highlights 1 Build competitive products portfolio on the highly growing Russian market over 135 products in different areas 2 Build a strong promotion team 200 Med Reps is well perceived among Russian producers by doctors 3 Build strong company brand in Russia N2 in terms on influence N9 among Russian producer in 2006 (in value) 4 Improve Polpharma s co-operation with international companies in Russia Akrikhin has established reputation of a safe and reliable licensing/cooperation partner
34 Acquisition of Akrihin will allows Polpharma to achieve a position among the Top-20 Combined sales of Polpharma and Akrihin Positions on the Russian market USD m App $32m App $63m Polpharma Akryhin Combined sales + app $95m USD, thousand Rank Corporation for NOVARTIS SANOFI-AVENTIS JANSSEN-CILAG ФАРМСТАНДАРТ BERLIN-CH/MENARINI SERVIER ROCHE GEDEON RICHTER PFIZER NYCOMED KRKA GSK SCHERING AG ASTRAZENECA SOLVAY PHARMA TEVA STADA ARZNEIMITTEL AG BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM SCHERING-PLOUGH NOVO NORDISK ELI LILLY EGIS ASTELLAS PHARMA INC PLIVA BMS
35 Volume of the Russian pharmaceutical market in Forecast up to 2010 ( In consumer prices, including VAT) Forecast 19 14,3 16,5 12,4 10,7 8,4 6,35 2,4 3,05 4,5 2,78 3,1 3,51 3,98 4,85 5, The source: Pharmexpert
36 Future. Russia - stability or new period
37 Thank you for your attention!
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