Inland Empire Prosperity... John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP
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1 Inland Empire Prosperity... John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP
2 After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs Now At A Record Level of Jobs U.S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating
3 Petroleum Prices Still At 2004 Levels Helps Families In Modest Income Areas
4 Value of the Dollar: Helps Imports & Hurts Exports %
5 Consumer Confidence, Needed To Help Homes Sales
6 S & P 500 Stock Index Back to 2,000
7 Interest Rates Very Low Again Encourages Home Sales
8
9 California Job Gains/Losses ,844, ,474,808 Up 630, % Up Recovery 1,809,542 Great Recession -1,178,158
10
11 Inland Empire Economy Gaining Strength! 5
12 Job Quality
13 Inland Empire Growth was the 2 nd Largest Absolute Job Gain in California in 2015!
14 Unemployment Falling
15 Competitive Conditions
16 Poverty
17 Educational Challenge For Adults & Their Children
18 Population Growth to 2040 Reaches 5.9 Million
19 Job Growth to 2040 Reaches 2,073,355
20 More People Than 25 States!
21 More Income Than 21 States
22 Median Worker Pay Per Year
23 Industrial Space Costs
24 Ontario Airport
25 Gold Mine Theory Secondary Tier Primary Tier
26 Government
27 Assessed Valuation Up $3.2 Billion 0.8% Inflation Up 8.6% SB Co. Up +2.8% Riv Co. Down -0.8%
28 Taxable Retail Sales Up $7.7 Billion, 12.6% Inflation Up 16.1% SB Co. Up +14.4% Riv Co. Up +10.7%
29 Federal, State, Local Government ,200 Local 500 St/Fed % of Job Growth Median Pay $57,984
30 John Russo, Riverside City Manager
31 High Paying Sectors Jack Dangermond Ahmad Adel Al-Khatib
32 Higher End Homes Draw Well Educated Workers UPLAND $497,455 $504,397 Claremont $594,476 $599,310 $449,386 EASTVALE $465,532 $450,500 CORONA $441,965 $350,313 Loma Linda $355,000 $353,820 TEMECULA $376,303 $405,538
33 Migration of AA or Higher Redlands-Loma Linda Western Inland Empire Temecula-Murrieta
34 Professionals, Mgmt., Utilities, Mining Slowly Coming Back ,000 Higher Ed 800 Mgt/Prof % of Growth Median Pay $65,453
35 Office Space Net Absorption 492,858
36 Office Vacancy Rate 15.0% 13.6%
37 Ahmed Al-Khatib Founder, SigmaNet
38 Health Care
39 Inland Empire Underserved by Health Care Workers 26.6% More People Per Health Care Worker in 2015
40 Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth % of Job Growth Median Pay $54, ,000 Jobs
41 Other Moderate Paying Sectors
42 Real Estate, Finance; K-2Growth Median Pay $49, % of Job Growth % of Job Growth ,000 K Finance
43 Sophisticated Warehousing Operations
44 Port Container Volumes Strong Even With January Labor Slowdown
45 Fulfillment Warehousing
46 E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter
47 Logistics Powerful Job Growth : 23% of New Jobs Median Pay $45,677
48 2015 Logistics Job Growth ,000 Jobs
49 PM 2.5: Diesel Pollution -95.6%
50 Manufacturing: Should Be A Major Growth Source
51 California Manufacturing Job Growth Just 5.4% of U.S. Growth
52
53 Inland Empire Manufacturing Jobs % of Job Growth Median Pay $49,567
54 Manufacturing Job Growth ,000
55 Net Industrial Space Absorption 23.1 million 20.7 Million Sq. Ft. of Industrial Under Construction December-2015
56 Industrial Overwhelmingly In The Inland Empire
57 Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.6%
58 Construction: Finally Coming Back
59 Underwater Homeowners Negative Equity Has Dropped 4 th Qtr rd Qtr % to 11.4%
60 Home Price Trends -26.9% 83.4%
61 Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists $379,000 $190,000 $202,000
62 Home Sales Volume No Breakout
63 Domestic In-Migration: Stalled -10,241 8 Years -1,280 per year
64 Construction Jobs: Growth Gaining % of Job Growth Median Pay $51, ,500 Jobs
65 Steve Ruffner So. California President KB Homes
66 Gold Mine Theory Secondary Tier Primary Tier
67 Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & Drink Amusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency % of Job Growth Median Pay $28, ,100 Jobs
68 Forecast
69 Inland Empire Economy Gaining Strength!
70 Looking Ahead... Inland Empire Is a Job Engine Again Construction Coming Back Residential Still Weak Manufacturing Will Be Under Pressure Logistics Will Remain Strong Health Care Will Pick Up Office Growth An Issue Given E-Commerce Changes Lower Paying Jobs Smaller Share Than Most Areas Labor Availability May Become An Issue Forecast: 3.6% (48,700) Total Local Jobs: 1,411,100 Unemployment: 5.0%
71
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