The State of Eastern North Carolina s Tourism Economy
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1 The State of Eastern North Carolina s Tourism Economy James (Jim) Kleckley, PhD Director, Bureau of Business Research KleckleyJ@ecu.edu February 2009
2 OUTLINE Economic Development Economic Structure The State of the Economy GDP & Employment Consumption & Retail Sales Forecasts and Suggestions
3 Economic Development Wikipedia.org Economic development is the improvement of the wellbeing or quality of life of our population. Economic well-being Political well-being Social well-being Economic development are efforts that seek to improve the economic well-being by creating and/or retaining jobs supporting or growing incomes and the tax base.
4 North Carolina s Economic Development Regions
5 The Economic Development Process (NC Dept of Commerce & Local/Regional Economic Development Agencies) New and expanding business development Small Business Development Entrepreneurial Development Green Development Tourism Development
6 Philosophy of Economic Development Export Base Theory Traditional Key industry that sells product to the rest of the world Non-traditional Attract the rest of the world to your area Tourism (recreation & leisure) Shopping (regional & nation centers) Health Care (regional & nation centers)
7 Defining Tourism through Economic/Industry Structure Differences in Structure produce Differences in Growth & Income
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9 Employment and Wages
10 Major Industries
11 Industries with a greater than 3% share of employment
12 Industries with a greater than 3% share of employment
13 Industries with a greater than 3% share of employment
14 Industries with a greater than 3% share of employment
15 Industries with a greater than 3% share of employment
16 Industries with a greater than 3% share of employment
17 Industries with a greater than 3% share of employment
18 The State of the Economy GDP & Employment
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24 The State of the Economy Consumption & Retail Sales
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33 Retail Sales Less Spending Autos Gasoline Consumer Durables Flat Spending Consumer Nondurables Eating and Drinking Places More Spending Food and Beverage Sales
34 Data only through October 2008!
35 Data only through October 2008!
36 Data only through October 2008!
37 Data only through October 2008!
38 Data only through October 2008!
39 Data only through October 2008!
40 Forecasts and Suggestions
41 Kleckley s US Forecast Probably in recession for most, if not all, of 2009 The US lost 2.48 million jobs in 2008 The US is expected to lose 2.0 million jobs in 2009 From January 2007 to January 2010 the US economy will probably lose 5.3 million jobs The US unemployment rate should reach nearly 9 percent January 2010 there will be nearly 134 million jobs in place
42 NC and ENC Forecast In the short run, the state and regional health will depend upon the nation s health In the long run, the state and regional health will depend upon management & planning and factors special to Eastern NC Military Growth Transportation System of the region K 12 Education Aging/retirement population & the impact on health care and other services Development of Target Industries (including Tourism)
43 The Tourism Forecast Tourists will still come Lower gasoline prices is positive Spending patterns will become more conservative Expansion of the tourism base New visitors & new services Eliminating the seasonality Tourism is Economic Development Depends upon leadership and cooperation of all advocate groups and businesses
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