Case study 1. Shattering. the Myths. About U.S. Trade Policy. The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in the US

Transcription

1 + Case study 1 Shattering the Myths About U.S. Trade Policy The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in the US

2 + The blames from U.S. Loss of jobs Damage of welfare

3 + The 3 Myths about U.S. Trade Policy 1 Job losses, especially in manufacturing, due to the American s trade policy. 2 Export from developing countries had reduced their living standards. 3 Higher oil prices that import from developed and developing countries is hurting Americans

4 + Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards say Forget the doomsayers, and stop blaming trade. An active trade policy can lead to a stronger U.S. economy.

5 + 1 Job losses, especially in manufacturing, due to the American s trade policy. Employment has fallen steadily for over half a century. The trend is similar with Germany and the Netherlands. Increasing productivity growth in American manufacturing. And or so in agriculture. A shift in demand away from goods toward services. The recessions started at home in U.S. -From <Shattering the Myths About U.S.Trade Policy> Balanced trade won t offset job losses permanently.

6 + Balanced trade won t offset job losses permanently. -From <Shattering the Myths About U.S.Trade Policy>

7 + 2 Export from developing countries had reduced their living standards. Very different products and processes between the U.S. and developing countries. The most products differ in terms of price and quality, factors of production are used for specific tasks. Countries in the early stages of development are most likely to experience rapid productivity growth in the industries in which they have a comparative advantage. -John Hicks' theory The developing countries exported that are no longer produced certain products in U.S. The variety of imports available to Americans would have been greater. The terms of trade would have been better for the United States. From 1993 to 2010,the manufacturing terms of trade improved primarily because the relative prices of U.S.- manufacturing imports from developing countries declined. -By Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards

8 + 3 Higher oil prices that import from developed and developing countries is hurting Americans The united states imports about 58% of its oil, the price of oil heavily influences the nation s trade benefits The impact of the net-supply shortfall created by the U.S.. Increase global supply or reduced demand of just 1% a year would reduce oil prices in 2030 by 75%. -By U.S. Energy Information Administration scenarios Relatively small changes in the production and conservation of liquid fuels may make it possible to accommodate demand from emerging economies without a major increase in oil prices. -By Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards the shortfall between growth of demand in emerging markets and slow growth of supply in developed countries

9 + A free and fair global trading system can result in economic win-win. ---By U.S. President John F. Kennedy

10 + How is the trade developing? U.K. China

11 + How is the trade developing?. U.K. China Tax/Tariff Trade Barriers Import Quotas

12 + The benefits of the free trade U.K. China Tax/Tariff Trade Barriers Import Quotas Efficiently, Easily, and Effectively

13 + The free trade organizations

14 + Free Trade in the United States A member of the WTO. And or so in part of several other trade agreements including NAFTA, CAFTA-DR, and bilateral investment treaties, which are individual agreements with about 40 additional nations. The goal is to establish worldwide free trade agreements (referred to by detractors as "globalization"). The belief is that the further expansion of trade would be "an important contribution to addressing the global economic crisis."

15 + Currently economy in US Slower growth since the early 1970s Sustained merchandise trade deficits since 1976 Public debt rose quickly from $909 billion in 1980 to $14.3 trillion in 2010, by 15 times Jobless rate is high: February 2013, the unemployment rate was up to 7.7% Living standards fall: personal income were down sharply from their 2007 peaks

16 + American learn to spend less More of the demand for their output has to come through trade.

17 + President Barack Obama 's doubling exports Revitalized U.S. trade aiming to double exports by 2014 Expand trade opportunities through regional economic integration with partners in Africa and Asia in 2013 Launch trade policy negotiation with EU to boost U.S economy Accelerated efforts on TPP negotiations To build a Trans-Pacific free trade zone without China s attendance, which will restrict Chinese development. Plan to complete the talk at the end of this year In five years, exports can be boosted by a weaker dollar or by greater investments that make goods and services cheaper, more attractive,or more prominent The trade barriers are much higher overseas than in U.S..

18 + What need American to do More active in trading order 1.Sustain trade order from current FTAs 2.Seeks out untapped foreign markets--opening up trade with Russia LY Maintain good relationship with trade partner Relationship with China- find a win-win way to boost economic interest bilaterally Allow China s remedies in antidumping and safeguard cases End the compliance review of trade Leadership on pushing international meaningful agreement Help to end Doha round talk Reconstruct WTO

19 + The thinking of this case Free Trade Increases U.S. Sales and Profits Free Trade Creates U.S. Middle-Class Jobs U.S. Free Trade Helps Poorer Countries

20 + Don t erect more higher barriers + Encourage domestic innovation More active in trading order + Maintain good relationship with + trade partner Leadership on pushing international meaningful agreement

21 + Thanks