Developing Asia: robust growth prevails. Economics and Research Department Asian Development Bank
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1 Developing Asia: robust growth prevails Economics and Research Department Asian Development Bank
2 Preview Prospects for world economy in : positive but risks remain Developing Asia in : healthy growth East Asia: growth consolidates Southeast Asia: holding firm South Asia: the elephant stirs Global and regional risks 2
3 Developing Asia s strong performance in 2005 Overall growth at 7.4%: slightly lower than in 2004 Led by PRC; India; Pakistan; and Viet Nam Inflationary pressure subdued and current account surplus up Foreign exchange reserves at $1.9 trillion, up from $1.6 trillion in
4 Developing Asia: Drivers and Impacts Drivers: Robust growth in major industrial countries Removal of textile and clothing quotas High oil prices Disasters Impacts: Exports grew by 18% Domestic demand steady Inflation moderate Interest rates up Resilience 4
5 Responses to quota removal on textiles and clothing T&C Substantial benefits to PRC and India in US and EU markets, but safeguard measures imposed on PRC exports Competitive Asian suppliers (e.g., Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam) outperformed non-asian preferential suppliers in both markets 5
6 Baseline assumptions: Benign external conditions GDP growth (%) Industrial countries United States Euro zone Japan Memo Items US Federal Funds Rate (%) Brent crude oil spot prices ($/bbl) World trade volume (% change)
7 Developing Asia s growth will slightly soften in Export growth will moderate Monetary policy will be less accommodative, in line with global trend Rising fiscal burdens from fuel subsidies Re-orientation of PRC 7
8 GDP growth will remain robust Developing Asia Central Asia East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia The Pacific %
9 Risks Sharp adjustments in exchange and interest rates induced by widening international payments imbalances Yet higher oil prices Avian flu crossing to humans Growing protectionist sentiment in industrial world 9
10 Sustaining high growth rates in developing Asia hinges on Prudent macroeconomic management Microeconomic reforms to improve business and investment climate Overcoming bottlenecks in infrastructure Creating jobs 10
11 East Asia s growth will consolidate in East Asia PRC Hong Kong, China Korea Taipei,China
12 PRC growth will abate slowly. On the supply side Industrial growth will slow to 9-10% as investment slows and exports slacken Agriculture will grow by %, supported by infrastructure investment and targeted development measures With the opening of more services to external competition, services sector will grow at % 12
13 PRC growth will abate slowly. On the demand side Growth of exports will moderate to 17-20% due to selected voluntary export restraints and higher labor costs Investment growth will slow slightly to 12% Consumption growth will remain strong but significantly lower than investment growth 13
14 Korea recovers Growth expected to increase to about 5% Export growth will be supported by upswing in global electronics demand Easing of household debt crisis leads to resumption of consumption growth Investment will strengthen to meet growing export and domestic consumption demand 14
15 Growth nudges up in Southeast Asia Southeast Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam
16 Southeast Asia was resilient in 2005 Growth in Indonesia increased despite a slump in the rupiah and a sharp rise in fuel prices The transitional economies improved their performance, benefiting from stronger investment in recent years Exports rose by 14.7% in 2005; imports by 16.8%, so contribution of net exports to growth low 16
17 Southeast Asia: building on 2005 for the outlook period Private investment will pick up due to upswing in global electronics market Increased government development spending in Malaysia and Thailand Efforts to improve investment climate in Indonesia Mixed picture on trade 17
18 Southeast Asia remains vulnerable to risks Increased competition in global clothing markets Pass-through of high oil prices Impact on inflation and higher interest rates Vulnerability to epidemics and natural disasters 18
19 South Asia firms growth South Asia Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
20 Sources of South Asia s high growth in 2005 Strong performance by the Indian and Pakistan economies Recovery in agriculture Pick up in industrial growth Stable contribution of the services sector Strong consumption as good monsoon supported rural incomes Higher investment as confidence rose 20
21 Outlook is for slightly slower growth Softer growth in India and Pakistan: Consumption will be held back by fuel price adjustments High inflation as fuel price increases are passed through Rising interest rates will modestly affect investment Slower agriculture growth after gains in
22 Challenges to sustain high growth in South Asia Increase fixed investment Improve capital productivity Security problems in Afghanistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka 22
23 Sustaining growth and broadening inclusiveness require Macroeconomic stability Open market orientation Microeconomic reforms 23
24 Key issues for Asia in a dynamic Doha outcome include Doha Non-agricultural market access Agriculture Trade in services Rules 24
25 Routes for Asia s trade Part III Trade liberalization important in lifting productivity and incomes But bilateral agreements threaten prospects Problems Inconsistent rules of origin Diversion from multilateralism Opportunity Going beyond WTO 25
26 Key Messages Robust growth will spread across Asia Fruits of growth must be equitably shared Productive and decent employment needed Pursue macro and microeconomic reforms Open multilateralism is in Asia s best interest Maintain Asia s resilience to shocks 26
27 Developing Asia: robust growth prevails Economics and Research Department Asian Development Bank
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