Heren European Spot Gas Markets

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1 ESGM Published by ICIS 17 Pages Heren European Spot Gas Markets Energy Prices News Analysis 1 Markets Section Britain 2 Belgium 3 Netherlands 4 Germany 5 Austria/Czech Republic 6 France/Italy/Spain 7 Italy 8 2 News Section German VNG s virtual storage capacity sells out for /15 12 New Slovak OTC screen sees 15 deals in first two months 12 JP Morgan sells physical commodities desk to Mercuria 12 Daily oil summary 13 3 Section Secondary data Trades 16 ICE natural gas futures 15 OCM data 15 Beach assessment 15 Oil market price assessment 15 National Grid daily capacity 15 NBP DAY-AHEAD MIDPOINT 19 MARCH NBP, HEREN MONTHLY INDICES MARCH 14 NBP, Zeebrugge, TTF, PEG Nord, NCG, GASPOOL, VTP, PSV, HEREN MONTHLY CUMULATIVE INDICES APRIL 14 NBP, Zeebrugge, TTF, PEG Nord, NCG, GASPOOL, VTP, PSV, HEREN DAILY INDICES 19 MARCH NBP Within-day, NBP D-1, Zeebrugge D-1, TTF D-1, PEG Nord D-1, PEG Sud D-1, MWh NCG D-1, GASPOOL D-1, VTP D-1, Laggan and Tormore UK fields first gas in Q3 14 Published on the ICIS Dashboard at 14:55 Initial production from the UK s West of Shetland Laggan and Tormore natural gas fields is expected to start in the third quarter of this year, minority owner Dong Energy has told ICIS. The fields, which are 80% owned by French oil and gas major Total, will deliver gas into the British system at the entry point of St Fergus Total. When operations begin the gas will be transported through the SIRGE pipeline to be processed at the Shetland Gas Plant. It will then join the existing Total-operated Frigg UK (FUKA) line. FUKA will then carry the gas from the Alwyn area of the North Sea to the St Fergus Gas Terminal on the northeast coast of Scotland. The SIRGE pipeline has a capacity of 19 million cubic metres (mcm)/day, while the Laggan and Tormore fields will have a capacity of 14mcm/day, according to local press. Peak production at the fields is not expected until The West of Shetland area is thought to be one of the most promising remaining areas of the UK North Sea in terms of gas production, and its potential has Published on the ICIS Dashboard at 17:47 The UK will pay up to 75,000 ( 90,000) per megawatt per year for electricity under its capacity market, with the mechanism s first auctions to take place in EUROPEAN DAY-AHEAD GAS PRICES: DAY-AHEAD vs PREVIOUS DAY 26 prompted British system operator National Grid to forecast a rebound in North Sea production between ( see ESGM 19 July 2013) Total is the operator of the fields, while Dong owns a 20% stake. Total was unavailable for comment by Wednesday afternoon. OMV purchase Austria s OMV has acquired four licences in the UK s West of Shetland oil and natural gas area from US-based oil company Hess for $50m ( 36m), it said on Wednesday. This transaction will increase OMV s interest in the Cambo field to 47.5% from 15%, adding 60 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of recoverable hydrocarbons to its resources. Cambo is adjacent to OMV s Tornado and Suilven discoveries. OMV may have to make a contingent payment of up to $35m following development. The company also upped its stake in the Blackrock prospect to 75% through the deal. It expects to drill the prospect in OMV currently holds interests in 22 licences in the West of Shetland area. Jack Elliott and Julie Fisher UK unveils electricity capacity market price cap December of this year, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) revealed on Wednesday. This means a 500MW gas-fired power plant could earn almost 19m by making itself Page 14 HEREN DAILY MONTH AHEAD INDICES 19 MARCH NBP, Zeebrugge, TTF, NCG, NBP Zeebrugge ZTP TTF PEG Nord PEG Sud PEG TIGF NCG GASPOOL VTP Czech Gas PSV Turkish Gas ESGM

2 Markets BRITAIN NBP prompt slumps on oversupply, weak demand Strong flows from Norway and weak demand weighed on the NBP prompt on Wednesday, while curve contracts also ticked lower. Day-ahead traded in a range of just 0.6 during the session, to settle at , a drop of 0.55 from Tuesday s close. The system opened long by around 20mcm, although the oversupply moved to a deficit at 13:00 as demand was revised higher. National Grid forecast Wednesday s consumption to be 246mcm at 13:00, up substantially from 220mcm at the session open. But despite the increase demand still languished below average. Providing some support to the prompt were nominations for net injections into storage facilities on Wednesday. About 37mcm was nominated to be put in store, according to National Grid at 15:00. Nominations for storage injections are set to more than absorb imports through the BBL interconnector, with about 25mcm expected to flow through the pipe, substantially less than the average so far, of 34mcm/day. But flows through the Langeled pipeline ticked higher at the start of the session, and were at a rate of around 70mcm/ day throughout the day. Some small volumes of gas entered medium-range storage sites Holford and Hornsea overnight, although virtually no gas was withdrawn from British facilities during the session. At the session open on Tuesday, Holford was the fullest of the medium-range sites, at 75%, followed by Hole House Farm at 73% and then by Aldbrough at 71%. Humbly Grove was just 54% full. After the NBP Day-ahead contract settled at a small discount to the same Dutch product on 14, the British contract has re-established a strong premium in recent days. NBP Day-ahead settled above the same TTF contract on Wednesday. Two new LNG vessels are expected to arrive at South Hook before the end of the month. The Al Kharsaah will arrive on the 22, while the Duhail will arrive on the 28. Send-out from South Hook dropped at the start of the new gas day to a rate of about 10mcm/day during the day, down from 15mcm/day overnight. South Hook was just 22% full on Tuesday, while Dragon was 38% full and Isle of Grain 81% full, according to National Grid. Nothing flowed through the Interconnector into Britain during the session, despite the Day-ahead basis dipping to -1.4 at Tuesday s close. The basis edged higher to on Wednesday, and as such Day-ahead nominations through the Interconnector were in the direction of Britain. The volumes were negligible however, with about 1mcm set to flow on Thursday, according to IUK data at 18:00 London time. Jack Elliott Trades Data used key: B bid/offer, T Transaction, S Spread, F Fundamentals, I Interpolation/extrapolation The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. NBP PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH HEREN NBP DAY-AHEAD INDEX Price, Volume, m th Price, Volume, m th 20 Previous HEREN NBP WITHIN-DAY INDEX 19 Previous UK SPARK SPREADS FOR 49.13% FUEL EFFICIENCY 19 MARCH Period NBP Gas price /MWh Power price /MWh Volatility index Day-ahead T 35.9% Weekend B 40.5% WDNW B 35.1% BOM * * I n/a April ' B 45.8% May ' B 45.6% June ' * * I 44.3% July ' * * B 42.3% August ' * * I 42.4% September ' * * I < 20 days Q2 ' * * S 45.1% Q3 ' * * S 43.2% Q4 ' * * S 32.4% Q1 ' * * S 29.4% Q2 ' * * I 21.3% Q3 ' * * I 21.2% Q4 ' * * I 16.8% Q1 ' * * I 16.0% Q2 ' * * I 17.9% Q3 ' * * I 18.0% Q4 ' * * I 18.3% Gas Year * * I 26.2% Gas Year * * I 17.0% Year * * I 22.2% Year * * I 17.3% Summer B 44.1% Winter B 30.8% Summer B 21.2% Winter * * B 16.4% Summer * * I 17.9% Winter * * I 17.8% Summer * * I 18.8% Winter * * I 18.9% Summer * * S 19.6% Winter * * S 20.0% Spark spread Spark Diff (D-1) /MWh /MWh Day-ahead April ' May ' Q2 ' Q3 ' Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer ESGM

3 Markets BELGIUM Day-ahead basis edges higher; liquidity on curve increases Day-ahead at Zeebrugge ticked lower on Wednesday amid strong Norwegian flows from Norway and a mild mainland European weather outlook. However, the Day-ahead basis edged higher as its peer at the NBP was more bearish on strong Langeled imports. There was a surge in trading activity on the Belgian front month product on Wednesday, with April 14 dealing 12 times according to data seen by ICIS. The contract was assessed at a basis to its NBP equivalent at the 16:30 London time close. Trade was also registered on Q2 and Q4, Q and both Summer and Winter 14 as curve trading picked up in Wednesday s session. Gassco data indicated continued strong flows from Norway during Wednesday s session, with the rate edging up to 45mcm/day. Imports from the Netherlands also increased, but were offset by a surge in exports to France. The Loenhout storage facility remained firmly in net injection mode on Tuesday. An average 4mcm/day has been put into Belgian storage since 7. Send-out from the Zeebrugge LNG terminal leapt to 7mcm in Tuesday s session, with the arrival in port of the Umm Bab vessel. Nominations remained above the 2mcm minimum daily send-out in Wednesday s session, according to Fluxys data. The next expected arrival is the Al Marrouna, due in port on 29 according to port authority data. Jake Horslen Trades ZEEBRUGGE PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Period Bid Offer Diff Basis Data used Day-ahead * * B Weekend * * I WDNW * * I BOM * * B April ' * * B May ' * * I June ' * * I Q2 ' * * I Q3 ' * * I Q4 ' * * I Q1 ' * * I Q2 ' * * I Q3 ' * * I Gas Year * * I Year * * I Summer * * B Winter * * B Summer * * B HEREN ZEEBRUGGE DAY-AHEAD INDEX Price, Volume, m th 20 Previous ZTP PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead * * S April ' * * S Q2 ' * * S Summer * * S Data used key: B bid/offer, T Transaction, S Spread, F Fundamentals, I Interpolation/extrapolation The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. ZTP ZEE SPREADS ZTP TTF SPREADS Spread Diff Day-ahead April ' Q2 ' Summer *A positive spread represents a higher outright price at the ZTP than at Zeebrugge Spread Diff Day-ahead April ' Q2 ' Summer *A positive spread represents a higher outright price at the ZTP than at the TTF ESGM

4 Markets NETHERLANDS Day-ahead discount narrows as April 14 sinks to new low Natural gas prompt and curve contracts hit new lows on Wednesday weakened by on-going pressure from oversupply and low demand. The softer prompt fed through to near-curve prices, while the front season and front year took its cue from bearish oil. Day-ahead made a marginal session-on-session decline, which although minor, pushed the product to a two-year low. A stronger day on day decline on the April 14, narrowed Day-ahead s discount to the front month to /MWh. Earlier in the session, the spread had been /MWh. With the spot below the front month and the front season, it has opened up the discount so those with storage capacity to take advantage of arbitrage, one source said. Injections into storage have been picking up over recent days and stood at 5mcm at Gasunie Zuidwending on 18, up 67% week on week, according to data compiled by ICIS. Dutch stocks stood at 69% fullness on 18, 24 percentage points higher than during the same day in Norwegian deliveries to the Netherlands and domestic supplies were fairly stable day on day, while exports out of the Netherlands were mixed. Dutch deliveries to Britain recovered from Tuesday s technical hitch but were flowing at a lower rate 25mcm/day on Wednesday compared to around 35mcm/day on Tuesday, according to GTS data. In Belgium, deliveries were fairly stable at 2.2mcm/hour, while exports to Germany were down by almost a third to 0.7mcm/hour, according to available GTS data between 06:00 and 15:00. The front month was one of the biggest losers, declining by 0.425/ MWh session on session to /MWh - the lowest since ICIS started assessing the contract on 23 January. A record decline was also visible on the Year 2015, which slumped to /MWh. Sources said the weaknesses were driven by the fullness of stocks and the lack of strong demand. With the front year pressured, sources believed that this would trickle through to the subsequent months, but few believed that would eradicate the existing backwardated shape of the market. Elsewhere, Brent crude dragged contracts lower as sentiment linked to a flaring up of tensions in Ukraine failed to materialise and liquidity remained thin after the Q1 15. Kirsty Ayakwah Trades TTF PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead T Weekend B WDNW * * B BOM B April ' B May ' B June ' B July ' * * B August ' * * I September ' * * I Q2 ' B Q3 ' * * I Q4 ' B Q1 ' B Q2 ' * * B Q3 ' * * B Q4 ' * * B Q1 ' * * B Q2 ' * * I Q3 ' * * I Gas Year * * I Year B Year B Year B Year * * I Summer B Winter B Summer * * B Winter * * B Summer * * B Winter * * B Summer * * B Winter * * B Summer * * I Winter * * I Data used key: B bid/offer, T Transaction, S Spread, F Fundamentals, I Interpolation/extrapolation The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. HEREN TTF DAY-AHEAD INDEX Price, 20 Previous Volume, MWh 1,231,440 1,210,80015,812,760 ESGM

5 Markets GERMANY Bears prevail on low demand, ample supply The German natural gas market continued its downwards movement on Wednesday, as bearish fundamentals pressurised the prompt, while weak Brent crude oil prices weighed on the curve. NCG Day-ahead was the only contract to resist the general bearishness at first, with support coming from a drop in supply from Norway. Flows to the combined Emden and Dornum grid points decreased by 10% day on day to a rate of 126mcm/day, according to Norwegian pipeline operator Gassco. This provided a bullish signal to the market early in the session and NCG Day-ahead managed to maintain the previous day s closing level until about 14:00 hours German time. But as participants realized that despite the reduction supply remained ample, the contract started to drop in line with the rest of the prompt, settling at the lowest level in almost two years. Some of the missing Norwegian volume was replaced by flows from the Netherlands, which increased by about 26% day on day, to a rate of 24mcm/day, most recent data from Dutch grid operator GTS suggested. Direct Russian flows via the Nord Stream pipeline remained about stable, inching downwards by 4% day on day, to a rate of 975GWh/day (90.6mcm) on Wednesday, NEL and OPAL data showed. Otherwise, fundamentals remained extremely bearish, with mild weather forecast for the rest of the month. According to WSI, temperatures will sit up to 6 C above the norm in Germany in the coming days, limiting heating demand. On the German curve, most contracts also shed noticeable amounts of value, in line with weakening Brent crude oil markets. The losses came despite a weakening euro against the pound sterling, which supported contracts at the continental hubs in relation to their NBP equivalents, preventing more significant losses on the curve. The NCG front month shed 0.313/MWh day on day, slightly decreasing its premium over Day-ahead to 0.538/MWh, down from 0.662/ MWh at Tuesday s close. Johanna Blackader Trades Data used key: B bid/offer, T Transaction, S Spread, F Fundamentals, I Interpolation/ extrapolation The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. NCG PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead B Weekend * * B WDNW * * B BOM * * B April ' B May ' B June ' * * I July ' * * I Q2 ' * * B Q3 ' * * B Q4 ' * * I Q1 ' * * I Year B Year B Year B Summer B Winter B Summer * * B Winter * * B Summer * * B GASPOOL PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead * * B Weekend * * I WDNW * * I BOM * * B April ' B May ' * * B June ' * * I Q2 ' * * B Q3 ' * * B Q4 ' * * I Q1 ' * * I Year * * B Year * * B Year * * B Summer B Winter * * B Summer * * B Winter * * B Summer * * I HEREN NCG DAY-AHEAD INDEX Price, Volume, MWh 20 Previous , ,600 8,536,200 HEREN GASPOOL DAY-AHEAD INDEX Price, Volume, MWh 20 Previous , ,240 6,444,583 GERMAN SPARK SPREADS 19 MARCH Period TTF Power price Spark spread Spark Diff (D-1) Day-ahead April ' Q2 ' Year ESGM

6 Markets AUSTRIA/CZECH REPUBLIC Spot and curve lose value on mild temperature forecast The bears were in charge on the Czech and Austrian natural gas markets on Wednesday, taking spot and curve contracts lower as temperatures above seasonal norms continued to pressure demand. On the spot, day-on-day losses on the Czech and Austrian Day-ahead contracts were greater than on the equivalent NCG product. In the Czech Republic temperatures were forecast to stay up to 8 C above seasonal average during the next 10 days. This led to low consumption. Demand for Thursday was estimated at 225GWh, according to Czech transmission system operator (TSO) Net4Gas. Czech BOM lost value day on day, coming closer to Day-ahead but still closing at a 0.338/MWh premium. Flows from the Czech Republic to Slovakia stood at 39.43mcm, according to TSO data from Tuesday collated by ICIS. Some of that gas may have travelled via Slovakia to Austria as exit flows to Austria were mcm, while only 92.24mcm entered Slovakia from Ukraine. Czech storage sites were 8.26 percentage points fuller than last year, according to ICIS data, contributing to the bearish sentiment on the spot and near curve. On the curve, Czech April 14 traded three times around 23.40/ MWh, having lost 0.30/MWh at the close. Czech Calendar Year 2015 changed hands once via a broker screen at /MWh, 0.10/MWh above NCG peer. Katya Zapletnyuk Trades VTP PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead * * B April ' * * B May ' * * B June ' * * I Q2 ' * * I Q3 ' * * B Summer * * I Winter * * T Summer * * S HEREN VTP DAY-AHEAD INDEX Price, Volume, MWh 20 Previous , ,320 1,370,448 CZECH REPUBLIC PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead * * B BOM * * B April ' * * B May ' * * B Q2 ' * * B Q3 ' * * B Year * * B Summer * * B Data used key: B bid/offer, T Transaction, S Spread, F Fundamentals, I Interpolation/extrapolation The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. ESGM

7 Markets FRANCE Sud DA premium slashed as link capacity remains unrestricted The PEG Sud Day-ahead premium to its northern equivalent sank on Wednesday, as capacity at the north-south link was set to remain unrestricted for a fifth day in a row. Sud Day-ahead s premium to Nord was slashed by 60% to 0.9/MWh on Wednesday. This is the lowest the price difference has been since 8 November, 2013 when the premium was 0.8/MWh. It was a liquid trading session at Sud, with April 14 trading 12 times and Summer 14 three times on the OTC market, according to data seen by ICIS. The interruptible capacity restriction at the north-south Liaison will be set at zero on Thursday for the fifth day in a row. LNG sendout at the southern port of Fos increased on Monday, ahead of the scheduled arrival of the Cheikh el Mokrani on Wednesday. Flow was at 22mcm/day on Monday and Tuesday, up from 13mcm/day on the weekend. The south-atlantique storage cluster entered injection mode on Tuesday, joining the southeast and northeast sites. Prices were also bearish across the northern prompt and curve, while warmer than average temperatures continue to settle across the country. Nord OTC Day-ahead traded in a tight range between 26.55/MWh and 26.65/MWh throughout the day. Trading on the exchange broke above this range to reach /MWh in the mid-afternoon. There was one Nord Q3 14 product exchanged at 23.45/MWh at 15:45 and four Summer 14 trades on Wednesday. Prices across the Dutch TTF and British NBP hubs were also gripped by bears throughout the session. Consumption in the northern zone is forecast to fall to 84mcm/day on Thursday from 88mcm/day on Wednesday. Demand is expected to rise again on Friday to 89mcm/day. Flow from Norway into France increased by 5mcm/day on Wednesday to 49mcm/day, according to Gassco data at 15:15 London time. Miriam Siers Trades PEG NORD PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead * * B BOM * * B April ' * * B May ' * * B June ' * * I Q2 ' * * B Q3 ' * * B Q4 ' * * S Year * * B Summer * * B Winter * * B Summer * * B PEG SUD PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead * * S April ' * * S PEG TIGF PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead * * S HEREN PEG NORD DAY-AHEAD INDEX Price, Volume, MWh 20 Previous , ,605 1,432,335 HEREN PEG SUD DAY-AHEAD INDEX Price, Volume, MWh 20 Previous ,135 31, ,190 FRANCE, ITALY & SPAIN AOC PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH April ' * * I Data used key: B bid/offer, T Transaction, S Spread, F Fundamentals, I Interpolation/ extrapolation The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. PSV PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Day-ahead B BOM B April ' * * B May ' * * B June ' * * B Q2 ' * * B Q3 ' * * B Q4 ' * * B Q1 ' * * I Gas Year * * I Year * * S Summer B Winter B ESGM

8 Markets ITALIAN FORMULA AND SPOT PRICE VALUES 19 MARCH Period Eni 2007 gas release formula PSV Differential to Eni 2007 gas release PSV PSV Dutch TTF Differential to TTF Bid Offer Bid Offer Bid Offer BOM April ' May ' Q2 ' Summer ' Gas Year ' Data used key: B bid/offer, T Transaction, S Spread, F Fundamentals, I Interpolation/extrapolation. The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. ITALY Low demand continues to pressure PSV prices PSV natural gas prompt products continued to shed value in the week to 19, as the above-average temperatures for the season subdued demand, which pulled on curve contracts too. Traders were expecting the capacity storage auction results on Wednesday to slightly push up Summer 14, but the results were not out by the close of market. WSI forecast temperatures over the week to be 4 C above average in Italy, although the weather is expected to be cooler from the weekend until the middle of next week. PSV Day-ahead lost /MWh between the 12 and 19, in line with its Dutch TTF counterpart, which lost 0.675/MWh in the same period. According to data from Snam Rete Gas, total domestic demand was down 14 million cubic metres (mcm) week on week to 179mcm on a daily average. While industrial demand remained stable, retail and thermoelectric consumption declined by 20% and 10%, to a daily average of 100mcm and 41mcm. I am not expecting any increase from thermoelectric production. Even if temperatures become very warm [which would increase power demand from air conditioning], we have accumulated enough water in the tanks for hydro generation to last until the end of summer, said a trader. Other sources were expecting Summer 14 to inch up following the results from the capacity storage auction on Wednesday evening. Depending on operators strategies, shippers with more capacity could decide to inject more gas during the summer and support summer products. ICIS price assessments show that during the week between 12 and 19, the Winter-Summer spread lost /MWh. On Wednesday, the Italian energy service operator GSE published results for Storage 130, which represents the non-flexible products offered exclusively to industrials. Only 57mcm was booked out of 238mcm offered. Some sources speculated on the possible import disruptions because of geopolitical conflicts next winter, which would encourage shippers to inject more in the summer. This view was not shared by other participants who think stocks were already too full. Data collated from ICIS shows that stock levels in Italy reached 27% fullness on Wednesday morning to reach 3.3bcm, 10 percentage points higher than last year at the same date. Total gas imports to the Italian hub remained stable overall week on week, although the profile changed. Flows from Algeria at the Mazara entry point through Transmed pipeline were down by 30% to a daily average of 17mcm. This was balanced by greater imports from France and Germany via the Passo Gries entry point through Transitgas pipeline, up by 25%. Further out, no bid-offer spreads were provided by market participants for Gas Year and for Calendar Year 2015 on Wednesday. ICIS assessed the contracts taking into consideration the spreads with the Dutch Cal 15. Lucie Roux Trades ESGM

9 Markets TURKEY TURKISH GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 19 MARCH Period Day-ahead * * B Day-7 Ex-Post * * B * Indicative bid/offers TL/kscm $/MWh $/MMBtu Bid Offer Diff Data used Midpoint Diff Midpoint Diff Midpoint Diff Data used key: B bid/offer, T Transaction, S Spread, F Fundamentals, I Interpolation/extrapolation. The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. EXCHANGE RATES 19 MARCH Period TL $ Day-ahead Day-7 Ex-Post Source: Bloomberg BOTAS MONTHLY BALANCING PRICE Period Price February Price assessments and the monthly balancing price do not include a special consumption tax TL/kscm NO TURKISH GAS TRADES WERE REPORTED ON 19 MARCH ESGM

10 Across the Markets MONTH-AHEAD PRICE ASSESSMENT SNAPSHOT: 19 MARCH MONTH-AHEAD PRICE ASSESSMENT (PAST 30 DAYS) NBP Zeebrugge ZTP TTF PEG Nord PEG Sud NCG GAS- POOL VTP Czech AOC PSV Feb 19-Feb NBP 26-Feb TTF 05-Mar Zeebrugge 12-Mar NCG 19-Mar FRONT SEASON PRICE ASSESSMENT (PAST 30 DAYS) TTF QUARTER+2 vs GAS OIL 0.1% Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 05-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar TTF () Jun Aug Sep Nov Jan 24 Feb Gasoil 0.1% (barges $/ton) NBP TTF Zeebrugge NCG Gasoil 0.1% TTF EAST ASIA VS NBP FRONT-MONTH HISTORIC CLOSES $/MMbtu Mar Apr 13 Jun 26 Jul 10 Sep EAX NBP 23 Oct 5 Dec 22 Jan 17 Mar CONTINENTAL PRICE ASSESSMENTS 19 MARCH Period Zeebrugge TTF NBP Bid Offer Diff Bid Offer Diff Bid Offer Diff Day-ahead * * Weekend * * WDNW * * * * BOM * * * * April ' * * May ' * * June ' * * * * Q2 ' * * * * Q3 ' * * * * * * Q4 ' * * * * Q1 ' * * * * Q2 ' * * * * * * Q3 ' * * * * * * Gas Year * * * * * * Year * * * * Year 2016 n/a n/a n/a * * Year 2017 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Year 2018 n/a n/a n/a * * n/a n/a n/a Summer * * Winter * * Summer * * * * Winter 15 n/a n/a n/a * * * * Summer 16 n/a n/a n/a * * * * Winter 16 n/a n/a n/a * * * * ESGM

11 Supply/Demand Data UK STORAGE mcm UK LDZ AND NTS DEMAND mcm Oct 01 Jan 2013/ 2011/ Apr 2012/ / Jul 30 Sep Dec Jan 27 Jan NTS Day-ahead LDZ 16 Feb 08 Mar SOURCES OF UK SUPPLY: 17 MARCH % 0.11% 8.11% 22.07% 12.22% 0.83% 56.65% UKCS LNG BBL Norway* Storage Interconnector *Norway volume equals Langeled plus 50% St Fergus Total flows OCM SAP vs NTS DEMAND SAP () Feb 23 Feb 01 Mar 07 Mar 13 Mar NTS demand (mcm) NTS demand SAP LNG END OF DAY FLOWS mcm BBL FLOWS vs PROMPT NBP/TTF DIFFERENTIAL Feb 22 Feb 28 Feb Isle of Grain sub terminal Milford Haven - Dragon 06 Mar 12 Mar Grain NTS2 Milford Haven - South Hook 17 Mar BBL flows (mcm) Feb BBL flows 22 Feb 28 Feb 06 Mar 12 Mar *NBP/TTF differential (Negative values indicate NBP discount to TTF) *NBP/TTF differential () INTERCONNECTOR FLOWS vs IUK SHIPPER NOMINATIONS mcm PROMPT BASIS vs INTERCONNECTOR FLOWS, mcm mcm Feb 25 Feb 04 Mar 11 Mar 19 Mar Feb 25 Feb 04 Mar 11 Mar Mar Actual flow Day-ahead nominations (18:00) Source: IUK Day-ahead basis diff () NBP/TTF day-ahead spread () Actual flows (mcm) Data sourced from ICIS, National Grid, ICE Endex and Interconnector UK ESGM

12 News New Slovak OTC screen sees 15 deals in first two months Published on the ICIS Dashboard at 06:00 Traded volume of natural gas on Czech brokerage firm 42 Financial Services (42FS s) Slovak over-the-counter screen reached 188MWh in its first two months of trading, the broker told ICIS. In January and February, 15 deals were concluded on the new screen for trading Slovak gas products. Seven companies are registered to trade Slovak gas through the screen, after launching with three active members on 6 January (see ESGM 10 January ). The names are not yet public due to the sensitivity of the small market. The new screen has definitely been popular. Many names are interested, although we are not seeing big flows yet, said a spokesman for the exchange. Most of the volume brokered is made up of spot contracts, although sources said interest in curve products is appearing, including for Q4 14 and Calendar Year 15. On Tuesday afternoon, April 14 was bid at 23.65/MWh in clips of 5MW. The latest session a bid-offer spread appeared on the same day for Day-ahead was on 13. The contract was a bid at 23.80/ MWh and offered at 24.10/MWh on 13, according to 42FS. Taking 23.95/ MWh as a midpoint, the potential Slovak Day-ahead would have been on par with Austria and was 0.225/MWh above the Czech hub, according to ICIS data. 42FS also offers a Domestic Point screen for the Slovak market, which prices in capacity. The 42FS Slovak broker screen is the first public price reference for a market that has previously been marked by its lack of transparency. The market has seen significant changes recently. Last year Frenchheadquartered GDF SUEZ and German utility E.ON agreed to sell their combined 49% stake in Slovak natural gas supplier incumbent SPP to Czech Energy and Industrial Holding. The firm brokers deals for about 15 companies, with the majority of these based in the Czech Republic. Miriam Siers German VNG s virtual storage capacity sells out for /15 Published on the ICIS Dashboard at 11:30 Germany s storage operator VNG Gasspeicher, subsidiary of natural gas supplier VNG, has sold all the virtual storage capacity on offer at the German GASPOOL hub earlier this month, the company has said. In total, shippers bought 1.465TWh (136 million cubic metres) of capacity for storage year /2015 starting from 1 April. Despite the difficult business environment for storage operators, demand for the new product significantly exceeded the available capacity, according to VNG. In contrast to physical capacity products, the virtual product is not subject to technical restrictions and does not depend on a specific storage site. It also includes the transport between the site and the virtual trading hub. As opposed to conventional virtual capacity products, VNG guarantees to actually inject the volume nominated by the customer who remains the owner of the gas at all times. The auction was held on VNG s recently launched storage platform easystore, where the tendering process is split into two phases. In the first phase, interested parties were able to select the desired injection/withdrawal rates and the amount of working gas volume, starting from a minimum lot size of 2.5GWh. In the second step, VNG examined the products requested and selected five of them to be offered on the new platform, on which a received a total of 19 bids. The easystore platform has been the company s latest attempt to boost its business in an increasingly difficult market environment. VNG Gasspeicher ranks third in terms of market share and operates about 2.6 billion cubic metres of capacity in Germany s GASPOOL market zone. Johanna Blackader JP Morgan sells physical commodities desk to Mercuria Published on the ICIS Dashboard at 13:49 US bank JP Morgan said on Wednesday it has sold its physical commodities trading business for $3.5bn ( 2.5bn) to the Switzerland-based Mercuria Energy Group. The deal is expected to be completed in the third quarter, subject to regulatory approval. Once the transaction is concluded, JP Morgan plans to continue to provide traditional banking activities in commodities markets. The US giant is the latest in a series of large financial players to leave or alter their commodity trading divisions. Sources previously said developments such as market coupling projects and renewable energy have shifted over-the-counter liquidity towards prompt and short-term contracts, reducing demand for hedging. In addition, new regulations have made it more expensive to hold long-term positions, which are generally the domain of the large banks. New regulations expected in the fourth quarter have also been attributed to contributing to the exodus of financial players (see ESGM 6 September 2013). Last month, British bank Barclays announced plans to close its European and US wholesale electricity trading division (see ESGM 25 February ). The previous month Bank of America Merrill Lynch announced it was exiting energy trading in Europe (see ESGM 7 January ). In December 2013, Deutsche Bank confirmed that it is winding down its energy trading and other commodities desk, after previously downsizing its role in natural gas and electricity markets (see ESGM 5 December 2013). But somewhat against the grain, banking group Citi it will expand its presence in European power and gas markets (see ESGM 30 January ). Ben Samuel ICIS launched pilot closing indices for the NBP and TTF Dayahead contracts on 30 September Click here to view the latest Heren Closing Index (HCI) and for further information ESGM

13 News FOR THE RECORD Greek DEPA confirms discounted supply deal Greek state-owned natural gas supplier DEPA has signed a new 10-year deal with Russia s Gazprom Export. The long-awaited formal confirmation was signed on 11 and announced by DEPA on Tuesday. The Greek supplier will receive a 15% price reduction, applied retroactively from 1 July 2013, the time when a discount was originally requested. The new contract was originally announced at the end of last month by the Greek Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change. At the time, a source within the country s power sector suggested there would also be a reduction in DEPA s take-or-pay obligation to 2 billion cubic metres per year (bcm/year), from 2.4bcm/year (see ESGM 25 February ). The take-or-pay reduction was not confirmed by DEPA when it revealed the new contract had been signed. Italian Snam reveals financing for transport Snam Rete Gas intends to plough 6bn into upgrading storage facilities and transport capacity by 2017, with 1.3bn to be spent this year, the Italian natural gas grid operator said in its strategy update on Wednesday. Snam will increase the south-north transport capacity by 15% to almost 1GW (about 0.1 million cubic metre (mcm)) by 2017, to help make physical reverse flow towards northern Europe possible. The first virtual auction for the Italian-Belgium reverse flow is planned in spring, while the auction for physical reverse flow is scheduled for 2016 (see ESGM 04 December ). On storage, Snam expects to increase its total capacity by 18% from 2013 to 2017,to 13.5 billion cubic metres, with a daily peak capacity increased by 12% to 316mcm per day. Meanwhile, the company said it had started negotiations to buy a stake in TAG, the gas pipeline transport company which connects the Slovakian-Austrian border with Italy. Dutch grid transport volumes in 2013 flow to record high Published on the ICIS Dashboard at 15:40 Rising natural gas demand due to plummeting temperatures during the early part of 2013 drove flows through Gasunie s pipeline network to a record high, financial results from the Dutch infrastructure company showed on Wednesday. Total flows jumped year on year by 8% to 1,365TWh in 2013, reflecting an all-time high for Gasunie. More volumes were transported through Gasunie s Dutch pipeline network, which is operated by Gasunie Transport Services (GTS), than its German network (see ESGM 24 April 2013). Year on year, volumes via the GTS network rose by 13% to 1,131TWh, while flows through Gasunie s sister network - Gasunie Deutschland Services (GUD) - fell by 2TWh year on year to 234TWh in Traded TTF and GASPOOL volumes were also boosted year on year. At the Dutch hub, traded volumes were up 9.5% to 8,287TWh. At Germany s GASPOOL market volumes jumped by 28% to 1,251TWh. At both hubs, the number of active participants also increased. At the TTF, traders increased by 9% to 114 in At GA- SPOOL the boost was even higher at 13% to 355 in The increase in transported volumes contributed to a 30% year-on-year increase to 464m in net profit in the highest for the company to date, according to available Gasunie data. Looking forward, Gasunie is continuing with expansion projects including a new pipeline between Beverwijk and Wijngaarden in the Netherlands, which will be operational at the end of. The company expects its revenue in to increase following an end to an obligation which in 2012 forced GTS to pay back about 400m to shippers from transport tariff fees charged between 2006 and Kirsty Ayakwah German import prices slightly down in January Published on the ICIS Dashboard at 11:11 The average German import price for natural gas dropped slightly year on year in January, decreasing by 2.9%, according to the most recent data published by the country s Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA). Import prices stood at 7,687.81/terajoule (TJ) ( 27.68/MWh) in the first month of, slightly down from 7,917.99/TJ in January 2013, BAFA said. The price drop partly reflects the fact that German companies have been increasingly successful renegotiating existing oil-indexed longterm supply contracts. Month on month, prices increased by 2.4%. After settling below the average spot gas price in November and December, import prices regained a 1.22/MWh premium over the average NCG Day-ahead price, which stood at 26.46/MWh in January, ICIS data showed. Gas volumes imported into the country rose by 3.2% year on year, to reach 337,415TJ in January, down from 326,849TJ in the same month one year ago. Most of the gas flowing into Germany was again sourced from Russia (143,191TJ), Norway (73,938TJ) and the Netherlands (107,143TJ). According to the BAFA methodology, these figures capture most of the volume entering the country via long-term contracts and part of the volume destined to be sold on the spot market. In total, German companies paid 2.6bn for the volume of gas imported from Russia, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark and the UK in the first month of the same amount as in the January Johanna Blackader ICIS Gas Markets Group Join our gas markets group and n Access breaking news n Discuss the latest trends with our gas team ESGM

14 News FOR THE RECORD UK unveils electricity capacity market price cap EU gas demand drops for third year Eurogas European gas lobby Eurogas said on Tuesday aggregate natural gas demand in the 28 EU member states decreased by 1.4% to 462 billion cubic metres (bcm) year on year in The declining generation by gas-fired electricity plants has driven the reduction in gas demand. ICIS data shows that German clean spark spreads for December 13 expired at /MWh, compared with / MWh in average for January 13. As production from renewables has continued to increase in 2013, the merit order system forced conventional power plants including gas-fired power plants to reduce their production or to even shut down. This prompted some European companies to write down the value of some power generation assets, mainly in Germany, the Netherlands and in Italy, among others. The relatively strong gas consumption in the first six month of 2013 because of cold temperatures failed to offset the trend. DAILY OIL SUMMARY Continued from page 1 available to generate at short notice during a six-month winter delivery period, although competitive auctions will take place with this the absolute upper limit. The capacity market will be available to new and existing power stations, electricity storage and capacity provided by voluntary demand reductions. However, it has primarily been designed to bring more investment into combined-cycle gas turbines forward amid historically weak profit margins for such plants, or spark spreads (see ESGM 17 April 2013). Under the scheme, existing capacity will be able to access rolling one-year agreements, with three-year agreements on offer to plants that need to undertake significant refurbishment. This will ensure we get the best out of our existing assets for the consumer, DECC said, as the details were published to coincide with the government s Budget. Fifteen-year capacity agreements will also be available to new capacity. This is intended to unlock investment in new gas plants, which DECC said will include a range of new independent providers. Penalties for unreliable capacity will be capped at 200% of a provider s monthly income and 100% of annual income. This will provide a strong incentive for capacity to be there when we need it, DECC said. Contracts available in this year s auctions will relate to capacity being available by the winter of Secondary trading of capacity outside of the structured auctions will also be a feature of the market, to manage the risk of exposure to penalties, DECC previously said. This can be done both physically and through private financial hedging. Physical trading will be possible at any point from one year ahead of the start of the delivery year. Operators may physically trade their obligations for the first delivery year in this way, but in order to do so for the second and third delivery years, participants must have achieved full operational status prior to one year ahead of that delivery year. Financial trading through private markets will be possible at any time. Jamie Stewart With the weekly US stock figures published late on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showing a much larger build on crude than forecast, the markets opened in negative territory, but while the NYMEX remained range bound through to the European opening, Brent gained some ground and even made a brief foray into positive territory. It had eased off again before trading picked up and it then went into a steady decline for the rest of the morning. Meanwhile, the NYMEX gained a little ground, but once the US markets opened it surged higher with the front-month April contract, which expires on Thursday, leading the way to break into positive ground. Over the other side of the pond, Brent continued to lose ground, almost posting 3-digit losses, whereas the NYMEX rallied again with April hitting a new high before easing back a little prior the appearance of the stock figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). These showed a much larger build on overall crude stocks than forecast with US Gulf stocks now at the highest level of the year. However, countering this slightly was yet another draw on crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub and a much larger draw on distillates than expected. Prices rallied for a short while, but the mood soon turned bearish with even April NYMEX falling back into negative territory and Brent posting losses of over $1/bbl. However, both benchmarks then started to regain some of the lost ground, taking the April NYMEX contract back into positive territory, although the outer months lagged well behind. Towards the close, the NYMEX was firmly in positive territory but Brent lost steam and it was heading close to the intra-day low set earlier. May Brent closed the day down 94 cents/bbl at $105.85/bbl, having traded a range between $105.71/bbl and $106.87/bbl. April West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed the day up 67 cents/bbl at $100.37/bbl, having traded a range between $99.34/bbl and $100.44/bbl. ESGM

15 UK Secondary Data ICE UK NATURAL GAS FUTURES 19 MARCH Period Settle Change High Low Lots Total m th Open interest Apr , ,500 May , ,315 Jun , ,400 Jul ,355 Aug ,205 Sep ,580 Oct ,920 Nov ,630 Dec ,725 Jan ,290 Feb ,725 Mar ,265 Apr ,300 May ,085 Jun ,085 Jul ,935 Aug ,935 Monthly Total 14, ,250 April Settlement April Contract index April Weighted Average Final Contract Index For further information, contact Jason Pegley on +44 (0) , ICE Futures Europe, Milton Gate, 60 Chiswell Street, London EC1Y 4SA. Period Settle Change High Low Lots Total m th Open interest Q2' Q3' Q4' Q1' Q2' Q3' Q4' Q1' Q2' Q3' Q4' Q1' Quarterly Total 1, SU' , WI' , SU' WI' SU' WI' SU' WI' SU' Yearly Total 4, ICE ENDEX OCM SMP/SAP REPORT GAS DAY 19 (AS AT 18.00) 19 MARCH Gas Day SAP SMP buy SMP sell Number of trades flow day Traded volume th/flow day WAP Location/ Physical/ Title ,959, Title ICE ENDEX OCM TRADING FIGURES FOR GAS FLOW DAY 18 NBP Gas Day 18 No of Trades WAP WAP p/kwh Energy th Energy kwh Value Location Physical Title ,890, ,154,319 6,301,540 Daily Total ,890, ,154,319 6,301,540 ICE ENDEX OCM SMP/SAP REPORT GAS DAY 18, 19 MARCH Gas Day SAP SMP buy SMP sell SAP 7 day SAP 30 day On Gas Day 18, there was no gas bought or sold by National Grid. DAY-AHEAD BEACH CAPACITY PRICES 19 MARCH Bid Yearly Terminal cumulative Bacton St Fergus Teesside Theddlethorpe Easington OIL MARKET PRICE ASSESSMENTS (16:30 UK TIME) 19 MARCH ICE Brent ($/barrel) Gas oil 0.1% (barges FOB ARA $/tonne) Fuel oil 1% (barges FOB ARA $/tonne) *Gas oil and fuel oil prices supplied by ICIS pricing NATIONAL GRID DAILY CAPACITY SUMMARY, 18 MARCH p / kwh Within-Day Firm Daily Interruptible Within-Day Firm Daily Actual Interruptible Location Average price Average price Available Booked Available Booked Bacton ,683,490 1,017,643, ,750,000 Barrow ,000, ,653, ,000,000 Easington ,566, ,346, ,346,248 Glenmavis Hornsea ,309, ,243, ,000,000 Partington ,313,658 0 St. Fergus ,967, ,905, ,905,196 Teesside ,361, ,291, ,291,483 Theddlethorpe ,861,420 82,850,187 82,850,182 ESGM

16 Trades EUROPEAN OTC TRADES VOLUME 19 MARCH Country Trading location Total MWh % curve * % prompt Number of trades Austria VTP Belgium Zeebrugge Belgium ZTP n/a n/a n/a 0 Britain NBP Czech Republic Czech Republic France PEG Nord France PEG Sud France PEG TIGF n/a Germany GASPOOL Germany NCG Italy PSV Netherlands TTF Spain AOC n/a n/a n/a 0 EUROPEAN OTC TRADED RANGES 19 MARCH Country Austria VTP n/a n/a n/a n/a Belgium Zeebrugge n/a n/a Belgium ZTP n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Britain NBP n/a n/a Czech Republic Trading Location Day-ahead April '14 Q2 '14 Summer 14 Year 2015 Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Czech Republic n/a n/a France PEG Nord n/a n/a n/a n/a France PEG Sud n/a n/a n/a n/a France PEG TIGF n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Germany GASPOOL n/a n/a n/a n/a Germany NCG Italy PSV n/a n/a Netherlands TTF Spain AOC n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a ESGM

17 Weather Days 1-5 Outlook: High pressure residing across central Europe will slowly push eastwards allowing a deep low situated to the north of the UK to bring a cold northwesterly flow into the UK from Thursday and will slowly edge into the continent from Saturday. Low pressure will develop across Italy, continuing to pull a cold northweasterly flow into France/Germany. Temperature anomalies of +1 to +4 C in western Europe at first, will soon be replaced with anomalies of -1 to -4 C by Sunday. Central/eastern Germany into eastern Europe can expect mean temperature anomalies of +4 to +8 C throughout. Precipitation anomalies generally 50-75% across the N European Plain, with % in the mountainous areas of Scotland, locally reaching 300% southwest Norway, Pyrenees and Alps. Days 6-10 Outlook: An area of low pressure across Italy will slowly push eastwards into southeast Europe with a ridge of high pressure edging across the northern European Plain. Further troughs will push eastwards across northern Europe which may clip northern Germany/ northern Poland, with higher pressure generally residing across western Europe. There is risk of warmer temps across western Europe if that high pressure edges farther east as per GFS ensemble. Mean temperature anomalies down to -1 to -3 C in Iberia, and around normal for France/UK. It will be warmer farther east in a southwesterly flow with +2 to +4 C. Low pressure passing across the Mediterranean will bring wetter conditions at around 100% of normal for northern Iberia, % for south Apennines, Alps, whilst precipitation will be just % of normal for the Scottish and Scandinavian mountains. < > BELOW NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL Weather forecast graphics and commentary provided in this publication are supplied by Weather Services International (WSI). WSI provides a wide range of pan-european weather forecasts, commentary and graphics specifically tailored for the energy marketplace. For additional information or to subscribe to our free quarterly WSI Energycast Europe Newsletter please energy@wsieurope.com or visit Heren European Spot Gas Markets 1 Procter Street, Holborn, London WC1V 6EU, UK Website: energyinfo@icis.com ICIS Customer Support (Asia & Middle East) (Europe & Africa) (toll free US & Canada) or (Americas) csc@icis.com ICIS Compliance and Methodology Editor, ESGM Ed Cox ed.cox@icis.com Deputy Editor, ESGM Tomas Marzec-Manser tomas.marzec-manser@icis.com Head of Gas Ben Wetherall ben.wetherall@icis.com Director, Global Energy Markets Louise Boddy louise.boddy@icis.com Editorial Director, Europe & Americas Stephen Burns stephen.burns@icis.com Vice President of Sales Douglas Strien energysales@icis.com Head of Sales Richard Haddrell Product Director Simon Platt simon.platt@icis.com Senior Marketing Manager Jacqueline Savory jacqueline.savory@icis.com Head of Design & Production Alexis Rendell Global Production Editor Louise Murrell louise.murrell@rbi.co.uk Global Chief Copy Editor Lewis Harper lewis.harper@rbi.co.uk European Spot Gas Markets is published weekdays by ICIS, 1 Procter Street, Holborn, London WC1V 6EU, United Kingdom. ICIS accept no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal. Should you require a licence or additional copies, please us at energysales@icis.com. ISSN ICIS ESGM