System Management Principles Statement. Compliance report Summary of balancing actions and breaches Performance compared to last year

Transcription

1 System Management Principles Statement Compliance report Summary of balancing actions and breaches Performance compared to last year

2 Summary Report Oct-13 Nov-13 Total Number of Buy Actions Total Number of Sell Actions Total Oct-13 Nov-13 Number of Material Breaches Number of Non-Material Breaches Nov-13 Nov-12 Number of Balancing Actions (Calendar year to date) Number of Material Breaches (Calendar year to date) Number of Non-Material Breaches (Calendar year to date) 2

3 Transporter Actions and Neutrality Energy Balancing Capacity

4 Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM November 212 to November National Grid Monthly Buys and Sells Nov 212 to Nov 213 vs 211/ GWh , -1,2-1,4 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov , -1,2-1,4 Buy 212/13 Buy 211/12 Sell 212/13 Sell 211/12 Month Year 213 [YTD] 212 Buy [GWh] Sell [GWh]

5 Days of Default SMP Prices From December 212 to November 213 SMPB Calculation Summary Dec 212 to Nov 213 %age Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 SMPB [NG Set Price] May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 SMPB [Default Marginal] Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Month SMPB SMPS Both Nov 13 7% 67% 63% SMPS Calculation Summary Dec 212 to Nov 213 %age Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 SMPS [NG Set Price] May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 SMPS [Default Marginal] Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 5

6 Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Sept - Oct 213 5,, Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit [Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM] - 1st Sept to 31st Oct ,, 4,, 35,, 3,, 25,, 2,, 15,, 1,, 5,, 11,171,17 683,325 28,415,853 Credits Net Debit 542,789 3,784,885 9,653,51 34,42,119 Debits Imbalance Scheduling OCM 6

7 Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Sep - Oct 213 OCM Payments / Charges Graph 1st Sept 213 to 31st Oct 213 1,5, Payment [TTB] Charge [TTS] Imbalance Payments / Charges Graph 1st Sept 213 to 31st Oct 213 3,, Payment [DCS] Charge [DCT] 1,, 2,5, 2,, 5, 1,5, -5, -1,, 1,, 5, -5, -1,, -1,5, -1,5, -2,, -2,, -2,5, 1/9/213 8/9/213 15/9/213 22/9/213 29/9/213 Day 6/1/213 13/1/213 2/1/213 27/1/213 1/9/213 8/9/213 15/9/213 22/9/213 29/9/213 Day 6/1/213 13/1/213 2/1/213 27/1/213 Scheduling Charges Graph 1st Sept 213 to 31st Oct 213 Exit Charge [EXS] Entry Charge [ESC] Exit Charge [DXS] 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1/9/213 8/9/213 15/9/213 22/9/213 29/9/213 Day 6/1/213 13/1/213 2/1/213 27/1/213 7

8 Capacity Neutrality Net Cost / Revenue From 1 st April 213 to 31 st October 213 Revenue/Costs WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue - 41,252 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue (As at September 13) - 8,22 Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) - 28,93 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges Net Revenue - 51,42 8

9 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI From 1 st April 213 to 31 st October 213 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI April 213 to October 213 ST FERGUS - 157,52 TEESSIDE - 1,755 BARROW THEDDLETHORPE - 8,599 EASINGTON - 18,96 BACTON - 44,745 OTHER - 5 Net Revenue - 41, , 165, 145, 125, 15, 85, 65, 45, 25, 5, St Fergus Teesside Barrow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton Other 9

10 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from Entry Cap Overruns and Non-Obligated Sales, and Locational Sells and PRI Charges. Totals From 1 st April 213 to 31 st October 213 Month Entry Cap Overrun Revenue Non-obligated sales revenue (entry) Month Locational Sells and PRI charges revenue Apr-13-4, Apr-13 May-13-7,376 - May-13 Jun-13-33,996 - Jun-13 Jul-13-16,257 - Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14-6,8-11,538 NOT YET AVAILABLE , Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar Total - 8,22 (FY13-14) - 28,93 (FY13-14) Total (FY13/14) 1

11 Operational Overview

12 National Composite Weather October to Dec 213 vs. Historical Range 12

13 Mean Composite Weather Variables October & November 213 vs. Previous Yrs Mean National Composite Weather for October 13

14 Demands

15 Gas Demand Breakdown 1 st June 213 to 1 st Dec 213 vs. 212 Gas Demand Breakdown 1st June 213 to 1st December 213 vs Jun-13 8-Jun Jun Jun Jun-13 6-Jul Jul-13 2-Jul Jul-13 3-Aug-13 1-Aug Aug Aug Aug-13 7-Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 5-Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 2-Nov-13 9-Nov Nov Nov-13 3-Nov-13 mcm NDM DM (Excl Interconnectors) Total Interconnector Export Storage Injection SND Cold Demand Warm Demand Previous Years Demand

16 LDZ Demand 1st Oct 213 to 3 rd December 213 Gas Demand Breakdown [LDZ 213 vs 212] vs NTS Demand / CWV's 1st June 213 to 3rd December Jun-13 8-Jun Jun Jun Jun-13 6-Jul Jul-13 2-Jul Jul-13 3-Aug-13 1-Aug Aug Aug Aug-13 7-Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 5-Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 2-Nov-13 9-Nov Nov Nov-13 3-Nov-13 mcm Gas Day LDZ Demand 213 LDZ Demand 212 NTS Demand 213 CWV

17 NDM Historic Demand and 213/14 Forecast mcm/d mcm 135mcm 61mcm 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Upper/Lower Percentile Range Average 17

18 Power Generation October 213 to November

19 Historic Power Gen Demand & 213/14 Forecast mcm/d mcm 38mcm 18mcm 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Upper/Lower Percentile Range Average 19

20 Average Daily Demand by Type October/November 212/13 vs. 213/ mcm/d LDZ Power Station IUK Moffat Storage Industrial 212/ /

21 Supplies

22 Gas Supply Breakdown 1 st Oct 213 to 3 rd December Gas Supply Breakdown 1st October 213 to 3rd December 213 vs Jun-13 8-Jun Jun Jun Jun-13 6-Jul Jul-13 2-Jul Jul-13 3-Aug-13 1-Aug Aug Aug Aug-13 7-Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 5-Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 2-Nov-13 9-Nov Nov Nov-13 3-Nov-13 Gas Day UKCS Norway (est) LNG Imports BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS Supplies SRS Supplies Previous Year Actual Supply mcm/d

23 Average Daily Supply by Type October/November 212/13 vs. 213/ average mcm/d UKCS Norway LNG Storage Withdrawal 212/ / BBL IUK 23

24 Average Supplies by Location October/November 213 Winter 212/13 St. Fergus Summer Teesside Easington (inc. Rough ) Barrow Burton Point Theddlethorpe Bacton Milford Haven Isle Of Grain 24

25 UKCS Historic Flows and 213/14 Forecast 25 2 mcm/d mcm 88mcm 5 72mcm 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Max Winter Range Winter average Average UKCS on days above 4 Cold Day 25

26 Gas Supply Breakdown IUK 1 st October 213 to 2 nd December 213 IUK Export / Import volumes Oct - Dec 213 vs Previous Year / SAP 26 2-Dec 3-Nov 28-Nov 26-Nov 24-Nov 22-Nov 2-Nov 18-Nov 16-Nov 14-Nov 12-Nov 1-Nov 8-Nov 6-Nov 4-Nov 2-Nov 31-Oct 29-Oct 27-Oct 25-Oct 23-Oct 21-Oct 19-Oct 17-Oct 15-Oct 13-Oct 11-Oct 9-Oct 7-Oct 5-Oct 3-Oct 1-Oct price (p/tm) Volumes (mcm) IUK Export IUK Import IUK Import [Previous Year] IUK Export [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year]

27 IUK Historic Flows & 213/14 Forecast mcm/d 2 27mcm 1mcm -2-2mcm /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average IUK on days above 4 Cold Day 27

28 28 Gas Supply Breakdown LNG 1st October 213 to 2 nd December 213 LNG terminal flows Oct - Dec 213 vs Previous Year / SAP Price (p/th) Dec 3-Nov 28-Nov 26-Nov 24-Nov 22-Nov 2-Nov 18-Nov 16-Nov 14-Nov 12-Nov 1-Nov 8-Nov 6-Nov 4-Nov 2-Nov 31-Oct 29-Oct 27-Oct 25-Oct 23-Oct 21-Oct 19-Oct 17-Oct 15-Oct 13-Oct 11-Oct 9-Oct 7-Oct 5-Oct 3-Oct 1-Oct SouthHookTer DragonTer Isle of grain DragonTer [Previous Year] Isle of grain [Previous Year] SouthHookTer [Previous Year] Volumes (mcm) SAP SAP [Previous Year]

29 LNG Historic Flows and 213/14 Forecast mcm/d mcm 2 23mcm 8mcm 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average LNG on days above 4 Cold Day 29

30 Gas Supply Breakdown LNG Deliveries LNG Deliveries Japan Tsunami Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Boat Deliveries 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 Qatar Algeria Egypt M.E Nigeria Norway Trinidad UAE Unknown USA Yemen

31 Gas Supply Breakdown Norway 1 st October 213 to 2 nd December 213 Norwegian* supply volumes Oct - Dec 213 vs Previous Year / SAP Nov 27-Nov 24-Nov 21-Nov 18-Nov 15-Nov 12-Nov 9-Nov 6-Nov 3-Nov 31-Oct 28-Oct 25-Oct 22-Oct 19-Oct 16-Oct 13-Oct 1-Oct 7-Oct 4-Oct 1-Oct Volumes (mcm) Price (p/th) Norway* Norway* [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year]

32 Norwegian Pipeline System 32

33 Production Flows 33

34 Norwegian Historic Flows and 212/13 Forecast mcm mcm/d mcm 47mcm 2 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average for days above 4 Cold Day 34

35 Gas Supply Breakdown Storage 1 st October 213 to 2 nd December 213 Storage flows Oct - Dec 213 vs Previous Year / SAP Nov 27-Nov 24-Nov 21-Nov 18-Nov 15-Nov 12-Nov 9-Nov 6-Nov 3-Nov 31-Oct 28-Oct 25-Oct 22-Oct 19-Oct 16-Oct 13-Oct 1-Oct 7-Oct 4-Oct 1-Oct Volumes (mcm) Price (p/tm) Storage Storage [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year]

36 Storage Historic Flows and 213/14 Forecast mcm/d mcm 2 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average Storage on days above 4 1mcm mcm 36

37 Storage Stocks - UK 1 st Oct 213 to 4 th December 213 Vs Previous Years 45. LRS Stocks 14. MRS Stocks TWh 2. TWh SRS Stocks Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Jun Jul Aug Sep LRS 21/211 LRS 211/212 LRS 212/213 LRS 213/214 MRS 21/211 MRS 211/212 MRS 212/213 MRS 213/214 TWh MRS 21/211 SRS 211/212 SRS 212/213 SRS 213/214 37

38 212/13 Reflection Storage Stocks 1 1% 9 9% 8 8% 7 7% 6 6% 5 5% 4 4% 3 3% 2 2% 1 1% % 38 Net Storage Injection (mcm) 1-Apr 5-Apr 9-Apr 13-Apr 17-Apr 21-Apr 25-Apr 29-Apr 3-May 7-May 11-May 15-May 19-May 23-May 27-May 31-May 4-Jun 8-Jun 12-Jun 16-Jun 2-Jun 24-Jun 28-Jun 2-Jul 6-Jul 1-Jul 14-Jul 18-Jul 22-Jul 26-Jul 3-Jul 3-Aug 7-Aug 11-Aug 15-Aug 19-Aug 23-Aug 27-Aug 31-Aug 4-Sep 8-Sep 12-Sep 16-Sep 2-Sep 24-Sep 28-Sep 2-Oct 6-Oct 1-Oct 14-Oct 18-Oct 22-Oct 26-Oct 3-Oct 3-Nov 7-Nov 11-Nov 15-Nov 19-Nov 23-Nov 27-Nov 1-Dec 5-Dec 9-Dec 13-Dec 17-Dec 21-Dec 25-Dec 29-Dec Storage Stock Percentage Full Rough Humbley Grove Hatfield Moor Hornsea Holford Holehouse Farm Aldbrough Avonmouth LRS % Full 212 MRS % Full 212 SRS % Full 212 LRS at Max Inj Max Inj Max Inj LRS % Full 213 MRS % Full 213 SRS % Full 213

39 Storage Stocks - EU From 1 st Oct 213 to 3 th November 213 vs. Previous Years 8, Total EU Weekly Storage Levels 7, 6, mcm 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 21/ / / /214 Date Stocklevel Status at 6:CET on Wed 4/12/213 Hub Area Stock Level (mcm) % Full Baumgarten % Germany % Iberian % NBP % France % PSV % SOUTH-EAST % TTF (Eurohub) % ZEE % Total Hubs 68 77% 39

40 Supply Ranges mcm 11mcm 1 mcm/d mcm 72mcm 84mcm 47mcm 4 38mcm 41mcm 2 22mcm 27mcm 23mcm UKCS Norway BBL IUK LNG Imports 2mcm 1mcm 8mcm Range Cold Day 4

41 UK Gas Prices 13 System Prices 1st Jan 213 to 4th December 213 Vs Previous Years SAP p/therm 1-Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar-13 9-Apr Apr-13 7-May May-13 4-Jun Jun-13 2-Jul Jul-13 3-Jul Aug Aug-13 1-Sep Sep-13 8-Oct Oct-13 5-Nov Nov-13 3-Dec-13 SAP SMP Buy SMP Sell SAP Previous Year

42 Actual Linepack Comparison of Within Day Max-Min Range of NTS Linepack (mcm) Within Day Range of Linepack (mcm) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Range of Linepack 22/3 Rolling 3 Day Average Range 22/3 Range of Linepack 27/8 Rolling 3 Day Average Range 27/8 Range of Linepack 212/13 Rolling 3 Day Average Range 212/13 Range of Linepack 213/14 Rolling 3 Day Average Range 213/14 42

43 43 6: 7: 8: 9: 1: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 2: 21: 22: 23: : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: Supply Profiling Oct 213 Av. Oct 212 Av. Nov 213 Av. Nov 212 Av.

44 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% 44 % Change from 1/24 rate 1Oct 4Oct 7Oct 1Oct 13Oct 16Oct 19Oct 22Oct 25Oct 28Oct 31Oct 3Nov 6Nov 9Nov 12Nov 15Nov 18Nov 21Nov 24Nov 27Nov 3Nov Supply Profiling 6 Hourly Average 6: - 12: 12: - 18: 18: - : : - 6:

45 Linepack (mcm) Interesting Week WC. 11 th November /11/213 12/11/213 13/11/213 14/11/213 15/11/213 16/11/213 17/11/213 : 18: 12: 6: : 18: 12: 6: : 18: 12: 6: : 18: 12: 6: : 18: 12: 6: : 18: 12: 6: : 18: 12: 6: Sells Buys Actual National Linepack Opening LinePack PCLP Trades (mcm)

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47 NTS Constraint Management Actions

48 Constraint Management Actions To support industry preparations for the winter period National Grid NTS hosted a web based live meeting aimed at providing NTS users with a refresh of the constraint management tools available to National Grid NTS. The presentation and supporting audio file can be found here. A number of the constraint tools coved in the presentation above are reliant on user actions and or a response, these are; Locational Energy Actions At the request of NG NTS OCM subscribers can trade gas (buy or sell) with NG NTS Entry or Exit Capacity Surrender At the request of NG NTS users with Firm Capacity entitlements, at the notified locations, can offer capacity surrenders via the Gemini application Capacity Scalebacks NG NTS may at time Scaleback Interruptible Entry or Off-peak Exit capacity at either D-1 or D User participation & response required User response required if appropriate ANS will be used to communicate the requirements for the three processes above. ANS publications will also be displayed on Prevailing view 48

49 Constraint Management Actions (cont) In addition to the Live meeting slides additional supporting information can also be viewed via the link below. The information displayed also offers a document download option. Each download provides an overview of the process steps to follow should you wish to respond to a NG NTS constraint action Other useful information can be viewed here; System Management Principles Statement Exit Capacity Release Methodology Statement For more information or if you have any questions please contact Capacityauctions@nationalgrid.com or