UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
|
|
- Terence Palmer
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 HEALTHCARE SERVICES Managed Care Market Overweight UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC (UNH $ Outperform) Expect Strong Q2 + Focus on Early 2018 Commentary Look for solid results when UNH reports next Tuesday 7/18 We expect strong business momentum across both UHC and Optum will continue with likely upside to our $2.35 EPS est. for Q2 (consensus $2.38). Given expectations are already here look for focus to shift ahead including any early read on While UNH is unlikely to give details this far ahead, we would note that our 2018 est. is on the low-end of consensus views (Wolfe $10.58 vs. consensus $10.79). This is important as we note our 2018 growth est. of ~8% assumes a strong core growth rate of 13% partially offset by our est. of ~$0.45 of headwinds resulting from the 2017 HIF suspension plus 1x tax benefits (more below) in 2017 which we are unsure are fully reflected in consensus (consensus core growth would be 15% if included) given both our top-line and share-count assumptions are ~ in-line (page 2). We expect these headwinds to get vetted on the call as well as any potential offsets including the balance sheet (UNH will end 2017 back at their 40% LT debt to cap target leaving optionality here), SG&A leverage and other areas of potential margin improvement (Medicaid/Optum). Overall we continue to view the stock as a core holding given best in class insurance assets, Optum growth and strong business momentum HIF Suspension + 1x Tax Benefits Create Non-Core Headwind for 2018 Back at UNH s November Investor Day, mgmt sized the 2017 y/y eps tailwind from the HIF moratorium at $0.25 (Exhibit 2) driven largely by timing of mid-year commercial renewals (we estimate $0.18 commercial / $0.07 Med Adv). Given the industry-wide HIF step up for 2018 is about 30% coupled with UNH s increase in market share, we expect the headwind here could approach $0.35. For now, UNH hasn t said anything on HIF other than noting that 2018 headwind would be larger than the $0.25 tailwind for On the tax rate side, UNH outlined a $0.25 benefit from lower taxes on the Q1 call (32.5% for the full year, revised from 34.25%), split evenly between non-recurring and sustainable benefits (such as SCAI s lower tax rate, ~$0.06). The non-recurring benefit of $0.12 comes in large part from the change in deductibility for stock option exercises, where the % move in the stock + above average option exercises drove an unsustainable benefit this year. As a result, we estimate the resumption of the HIF coupled with the 1x 2017 tax benefits could create a ~$0.45 EPS headwind for Trading and Fundamental Data Target Price YE 17 $194 Prior Target Price NA Current Price $ % Upside to Target 3% 52-Week Range $132-$189 Market Cap. (M) $181,381 Shares Out. (M) Avg. Daily Vol. (000) 2,841 Total Debt to Total Cap 41% Short-Interest Ratio 3.4 % of Float 1.1% Dividend Yield 1.4% Price Performance YTD LTM UNH 17% 33% Managed Care 15% 9% S&P 500 8% 16% $191 $171 $151 $131 Source: FactSet/Wolfe Research Justin Lake, CFA (646) jlake@wolferesearch.com Stephen Baxter, CFA (646) sbaxter@wolferesearch.com DO NOT FORWARD DO NOT DISTRIBUTE DOCUMENT CAN ONLY BE PRINTED TWICE This report is limited solely for the use of clients of Wolfe Research. Please refer to the DISCLOSURE SECTION located at the end of this report for Analyst Certifications, Important Disclosures and Other Disclosures. WolfeResearch.com Page 1 of 6
2 Potential Q2 Upside on Risk Adjustment On 6/30, CMS released Risk Adjustment data for the 2016 plan year. While UNH does not disclose its 3R accruals and has not commented on the directional position it expected to be in for risk adjustment, we note that data shows UNH to be in a $484M ($304M Individual / $180M Small Group) receivable position for risk adjustment, up $556M from the $72M payable position for 2015 potentially indicating favorability vs. accruals. Individual risk adjustment of $304M represents ~8% of est Individual premiums while 2015 individual risk adjustment of $72M payable was ~2% of est. Individual premiums. Look for more color here on the Q2 call. Dividend increase increases cash returns to shareholders by ~$350M for 2017 Earlier this quarter, UNH announced a dividend increase of $0.12 to $0.75 quarterly or $3.00 annually, increasing the current yield to 1.6%, with total payout in the $3B range annually. Exhibit 1: Wolfe Research Revenue Estimates vs Consensus $ in M 1Q17A 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E FY2017E 1Q18E 2Q18E 3Q18E 4Q18E FY2018E WR Revenue $48,723 $50,805 $50,101 $51,094 $200,724 $54,051 $55,338 $54,574 $55,650 $219,613 Consensus Revenue $48,723 $50,026 $50,239 $51,445 $200,437 $52,898 $53,822 $54,013 $54,841 $217,338 Variance 0.0% 1.6% (0.3%) (0.7%) 0.1% 2.2% 2.8% 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% Exhibit 2: 2017 Tailwind from HIF Moratorium Source: UNH November 2016 Investor Day Presentation WolfeResearch.com Page 2 of 6
3 Exhibit 3: Management Commentary on 2017 Tax Benefit Overall, we now expect 2017 revenues of approximately $200 billion, and adjusted net earnings per share to be in a range from $9.65 to $9.85 per share. This is an increase of $0.30 per share from the midpoint of our outlook in January, partly from an improved tax rate in the area of 32.5% for the full year. The tax rate improvement is driven by a number of factors, about half of which are more discrete in nature, such as share-based compensation and half which we would expect to be more sustainable into the future. - David Wichmann, President UHG, 1Q17 Earnings Call 2017 and 2018 Product Mix and Earnings Bridges Exhibit 4: Product Mix Tables Product Mix Members Revenue NOPAT Margin EPS EPS % Members Revenue NOPAT Margin EPS EPS % Commercial Risk 8,070 $43,503 $1, % $ % 7,909 $45,800 $1, % $ % Commercial ASO 22,108 $7,891 $ % $ % 19,650 $7,918 $ % $ % Individual ACA 173 $1,044 ($30) (2.89%) ($0.03) (0.3%) 190 $1,264 ($20) (1.60%) ($0.02) (0.2%) Commercial Other (ITN'L) 4,178 $7,290 $ % $ % 4,261 $7,755 $ % $ % Total Commercial 34,528 $59,728 $2, % $ % 32,010 $62,736 $2, % $ % Medicare Advantage 4,429 $44,086 $1, % $ % 4,805 $49,445 $1, % $ % Medicare Supp/Part D 13,509 $22,125 $ % $ % 14,094 $24,284 $ % $ % Medicaid 6,479 $37,404 $ % $ % 6,965 $42,219 $1, % $ % Total Government 24,417 $103,614 $2, % $ % 25,864 $115,948 $2, % $ % OptumHealth $20,422 $1, % $ % $23,470 $1, % $ % OptumInsight $8,132 $1, % $ % $9,149 $1, % $ % OptumRx $63,422 $1, % $ % $67,545 $2, % $ % Eliminations (Excl. Interest Exp) ($55,112) NA NA NA NA ($59,811) NA NA NA NA Interest Inc., Expense, and Other $516 $ % $ % $576 $ % $ % Total Other $37,381 $4, % $ % $40,929 $4, % $ % Total $200,724 $9, % $ % $219,613 $10, % $ % WolfeResearch.com Page 3 of 6
4 Exhibit 5: Earnings Bridge $11.00 $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $8.05 $0.14 $0.18 $0.07 $0.39 $0.11 $0.37 $0.44 $0.16 $0.14 $9.78 $9.80 $7.00 $6.00 $ A EPS Com Risk HIF (Com Only) Com ASO Exchanges Medicaid Med Adv Optum Other Share Dilution 2017E EPS Consensus 2017E EPS Exhibit 6: Earnings Bridge $11.50 $10.50 $9.78 $0.13 $0.02 $0.15 $0.24 $0.46 $0.33 $0.13 $0.19 $0.07 $10.58 $10.79 $9.50 $8.50 $7.50 $6.50 $ E EPS Com Risk Com ASO Medicaid Med Adv Optum HIF Resumption Tax Rate Other Share Repo 2018E EPS Consensus 2018E EPS WolfeResearch.com Page 4 of 6
5 DISCLOSURE SECTION Analyst Certification: The analyst of Wolfe Research, LLC primarily responsible for this research report whose name appears first on the front page of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analysts personal views about the subject securities or issuers and (ii) no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Important Disclosures: Price Chart with Ratings and Target Price History Note: OP = Outperform; PP = Peer Perform; UP = Underperform Wolfe Research, LLC Fundamental Valuation Methodology: Company: Fundamental Valuation Methodology: UNH Relative PE to S&P 500 on NTM earnings basis Wolfe Research, LLC Fundamental Recommendation, Rating and Target Price Risks: Company: Risks That May Impede Achievement of the Recommendation, Rating or Target Price: UNH The primary earnings risk for MCOs is that cost trend will increase more than priced for. Utilization data points in Q1 raised some concern, but our checks indicate there hasn t been an inflection point. Other industry risks include political / regulatory uncertainty heading into and post 2016 elections. For UNH specifically the key risks include growth at Optum falling short of expectations, pressure on Medicare Advantage reimbursement or changes to risk adjustment, the potential for further pressure on Commercial Risk enrollment and Medicaid rate pressure. Wolfe Research, LLC Research Disclosures: Company: Research Disclosures: UNH None Other Disclosures: Wolfe Research, LLC Fundamental Stock Ratings Key: Outperform (OP): Peer Perform (PP): Underperform (UP): The security is projected to outperform analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12 months. The security is projected to perform approximately in line with analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12 months. The security is projected to underperform analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12 months. Wolfe Research, LLC uses a relative rating system using terms such as Outperform, Peer Perform and Underperform (see definitions above). Please carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Wolfe Research, LLC research. In addition, since Wolfe Research, LLC WolfeResearch.com Page 5 of 6
6 research contains more complete information concerning the analyst s views, please carefully read Wolfe Research, LLC research in its entirety and not infer the contents from the ratings alone. In all cases, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice and any investment decisions should be based upon individual circumstances and other considerations. Wolfe Research, LLC Sector Weighting System: Market Overweight (MO): Market Weight (MW): Market Underweight (MU): Expect the industry to outperform the primary market index for the region (S&P 500 in the U.S.) by at least 10% over the next 12 months. Expect the industry to perform approximately in line with the primary market index for the region (S&P 500 in the U.S.) over the next 12 months. Expect the industry to underperform the primary market index for the region (S&P 500 in the U.S.) by at least 10% over the next 12 months. Wolfe Research, LLC Distribution of Fundamental Stock Ratings (As of March 31, 2017): Outperform: 42% 1% Investment Banking Clients Peer Perform: 46% 1% Investment Banking Clients Underperform: 12% 0% Investment Banking Clients Wolfe Research, LLC does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks it covers. Outperform, Peer Perform and Underperform are not the respective equivalents of Buy, Hold and Sell but represent relative weightings as defined above. To satisfy regulatory requirements, Outperform has been designated to correspond with Buy, Peer Perform has been designated to correspond with Hold and Underperform has been designated to correspond with Sell. Wolfe Research Securities and Wolfe Research, LLC have adopted the use of Wolfe Research as brand names. Wolfe Research Securities, a member of FINRA ( is the broker-dealer affiliate of Wolfe Research, LLC and is responsible for the contents of this material. Any analysts publishing these reports are dually employed by Wolfe Research, LLC and Wolfe Research Securities. The content of this report is to be used solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell a security, financial instrument or service discussed herein. Opinions in this communication constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date and time of this report and are subject to change without notice. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Wolfe Research and its affiliates, including but not limited to Wolfe Research Securities, makes no representation that it is complete or accurate. The information provided in this communication is not designed to replace a recipient's own decision-making processes for assessing a proposed transaction or investment involving a financial instrument discussed herein. Recipients are encouraged to seek financial advice from their financial advisor regarding the appropriateness of investing in a security or financial instrument referred to in this report and should understand that statements regarding the future performance of the financial instruments or the securities referenced herein may not be realized. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any location where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law, or which would subject Wolfe Research, LLC or any affiliate to any registration requirement within such location. For additional important disclosures, please see The views expressed in Wolfe Research, LLC research reports with regards to sectors and/or specific companies may from time to time be inconsistent with the views implied by inclusion of those sectors and companies in other Wolfe Research, LLC analysts research reports and modeling screens. Wolfe Research communicates with clients across a variety of mediums of the clients choosing including s, voice blasts and electronic publication to our proprietary website. Copyright Wolfe Research, LLC All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Wolfe Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Wolfe Research, LLC. This report is limited for the sole use of clients of Wolfe Research. Authorized users have received an encryption decoder which legislates and monitors the access to Wolfe Research, LLC content. Any distribution of the content produced by Wolfe Research, LLC will violate the understanding of the terms of our relationship. WolfeResearch.com Page 6 of 6
CENTENE CORP. Read-Thru From NY Governor s Budget to Fidelis Deal HEALTHCARE SERVICES. (CNC $ Peer Perform)
HEALTHCARE SERVICES Managed Care Market Overweight CENTENE CORP (CNC $110.80 Peer Perform) Read-Thru From NY Governor s Budget to Fidelis Deal NY Governor s Budget Could Impact Fidelis Deal On 1/16/18
More informationHCA HOLDINGS, INC. Conference Call Takeaways HEALTHCARE SERVICES. (HCA $ Outperform)
07-17 09-17 11-17 01-18 03-18 05-18 07-18 HEALTRE SERVICES Healthcare Facilities Market Weight HOLDINGS, INC. ( $108.16 Outperform) Conference Call Takeaways Core Growth Accelerated in Q2 Solid volume
More information2019 MEDICARE ADVANTAGE RATE PREVIEW
HEALTHCARE SERVICES Managed Care Market Overweight 2019 MEDICARE ADVANTAGE RATE PREVIEW 2019 Rate Environment Sets up Positively for MCOs 2019 Advance Notice Expected Imminently Part 2 of the 2019 Medicare
More informationHOSPITALS. Updating Models Post Q1, 2019 Setting Up Well for HCA HEALTHCARE SERVICES
HEALTHCARE SERVICES Healthcare Facilities Market Weight HOSPITALS Updating Models Post Q1, 2019 Setting Up Well for HCA Updating Models Following 1Q18 earnings we are updating estimates and price targets
More information2018 MEDICARE ADVANTAGE RATE PREVIEW
HEALTHCARE SERVICES Managed Care Market Overweight 2018 MEDICARE ADVANTAGE RATE PREVIEW Rates likely to be modestly positive, HIF and Encounter Data biggest "known" moving parts 2018 Advance Notice expected
More informationTakeaways from Bullish Battery Analyst Day
AUTO & TRUCK MANUFACTURING Sector Weighting Market Weight JOHNSON CONTROLS INC. (JCI $39.52 Outperform) Takeaways from Bullish Battery Analyst Day Upbeat, In-Depth Power Solutions (PS) Analyst Day. Yesterday,
More informationTrainer becoming a distraction, but core business solid
AIRLINES Sector Weighting Market Overweight DELTA AIR LINES, INC. (DAL $20.80 Outperform) Trainer becoming a distraction, but core business solid Clean beat with EPS of $0.98 above our estimate of $0.93
More informationPortfolio Strategy Weekly Audio: It s Not Too Late to Buy Consumer Stocks A 5 Minute Audio Brief
Portfolio Strategy Weekly Audio: It s Not Too Late to Buy Consumer Stocks A 5 Minute Audio Brief Chris Senyek, CFA, CPA Head of Macro Research Chief Investment Strategist 646-845-0759 CSenyek@wolferesearch.com
More informationACCOUNTING TOP 10: PENSIONS
MACRO RESEARCH Accounting & Tax Policy Quantitative Research Portfolio Strategy March 28, 2014 ACCOUNTING TOP 10: PENSIONS This is our second report on the Top 10 accounting items to watch for and how
More informationACCOUNTING SIGNS IN LATE CYCLE TOP 10: SECURITIZATION GAMES
MACRO RESEARCH Accounting & Tax Policy Portfolio Strategy Quantitative Analysis March 18, 2016 ACCOUNTING SIGNS IN LATE CYCLE TOP 10: SECURITIZATION GAMES This is the first report on the Top 10 accounting
More informationAlternative Data Integration, Analysis and Investment Research
Alternative Data Integration, Analysis and Investment Research Yin Luo, CFA Vice Chairman Quantitative Research, Economics, and Portfolio Strategy QES Desk Phone: 1.646.582.9230 Luo.QES@wolferesearch.com
More informationPortfolio Strategy Weekly Audio: Time to Focus on ROE A Stable Growth Update
Portfolio Strategy Weekly Audio: Time to Focus on ROE A Stable Growth Update A 5 Minute Audio Brief Chris Senyek, CFA, CPA Head of Macro Research Chief Investment Strategist 646-845-0759 CSenyek@wolferesearch.com
More informationAutoNation, Inc. AN: Company-Specific Headwinds Continue to Weigh on Results, but Cost Controls are Improving
Consumer: Automotive Retail AutoNation, Inc. AN: Company-Specific Headwinds Continue to Weigh on Results, but Cost Controls are Improving Maintaining SW: 1) auto retail industry growth outlook remains
More informationDarden Restaurants, Inc.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI: Reports Solid Performance; Expectations Were Pretty High Despite Evidence Segment Is Slowing Our View: We reiterate our OW rating following shares coming under pressure because
More informationTransportation Shipper Call: West Coast Port Update, and Thoughts Ahead of TL Bid Season
Airfreight & Logistics Market Overweight Railroads Market Weight Trucking Market Weight Truck OEMs & Suppliers Market Weight February 27, 2015 Transportation Shipper Call: West Coast Port Update, and Thoughts
More informationWINNER, WINNER IT'S HOUSING FOR DINNER
HARDLINES RETAIL Food Retail Market Underweight Broadlines Retail Market Underweight Drug Retail Market Overweight Hardlines Retail Market Overweight WINNER, WINNER IT'S HOUSING FOR DINNER Higher Wages
More informationEquity Research. American Tower REIT, Inc. AMT: Solid Q Results--Shows Strength Of Geo-Diverse Model. Outperform.
October 28, 2016 Equity Research American Tower REIT, Inc. AMT: Solid Q3 2016 Results--Shows Strength Of Geo-Diverse Model AMT reported solid Q3 2016 results that beat our estimates across the board. The
More informationAnta Sports (2020 HK)
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Anta Sports (2020 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$18.50 Strong FY14 results; order book momentum maintained FY14 results above expectation Net profit jumped
More informationAllscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc.
HEALTHCARE: Healthcare Technology Company Update / Estimates Change Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc. MDRX: Continuing the String of Bookings We reiterate our SW rating on Allscripts (MDRX) due to
More informationSimmtech (222800) Focus on 2H earnings WHAT S THE STORY?
Company Update Simmtech (222800) Focus on 2H earnings Simmtech yesterday reported disappointing 4Q results, which compels us to cut our 2018 operating profit forecast by 10% to KRW52.9b and 12-month target
More informationCummins Inc. Nice Second-Quarter EPS Beat but Not Immune to Second-Half Slowdown. Equity Research Global Industrial Infrastructure Capital Goods
Equity Research Global Industrial Infrastructure Capital Goods August 02, 2016 Cummins Inc. Nice Second-Quarter EPS Beat but Not Immune to Second-Half Slowdown Summary/Quick take. Cummins reported a solid
More informationGoodbaby (1086 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ H16 results miss, but margin expansion continues. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Goodbaby (1086 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$4.20 1H16 results miss, but margin expansion continues Maintain Buy Net profit rose 21% YoY to HK$107m in 1H16,
More informationManulife Financial Corp.
I N S T I T U T I O N A L E Q U I T Y R E S E A R C H Robert Sedran, CFA 1 (416) 594-7874 Robert.Sedran@cibc.com Koki Akala, CFA 1 (416) 956-3723 Koki.Akala@cibc.com Maurissa Bell, CPA, CA 1 (416) 594-7283
More informationThe Ensign Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENSG)
The Ensign Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENSG) ENSG - Thesis Remains Intact; Reiterate MO MARKET OUTPERFORM COMPANY UPDATE Post Acute Care - Facilities February 14, 2013 Kevin Campbell, CFA, Managing Director kcampbell@avondalepartnersllc.com
More informationNote Important Disclosures on Pages 6-7. Note Analyst Certification on Page 5.
COMPANY UPDATE Key Metrics FFO NHI - NYSE - as of 11/7/17 $78.72 Prior Current Prior Current Price Target 2009 2010E 2010E 2011E 2011E N/A 1Q 52-Week $0.51 Range -- $0.51 E $66.31 -- - $81.21 2Q $0.47
More informationCompany Report. TCL Comm (2618 HK) Strong FY15E ahead backed by solid product roadmap in smartphone/wearables/apps/cloud; Reiterate BUY BUY
Company Report China Merchants Securities (HK) Co.Ltd. Hong Kong Equity Research TCL Comm (2618 HK) Strong FY15E ahead backed by solid product roadmap in smartphone/wearables/apps/cloud; Reiterate BUY
More informationLuk Fook (590 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$ In line results, 1QFY17 remains weak. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary.
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Luk Fook (590 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$16.50 In line results, 1QFY17 remains weak In line results Net profit slumped 41% YoY to HK$959m in 1QFY17, in
More informationChow Tai Fook (1929 HK)
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$8.50 Albert Yip, CFA SFC CE No. ADT599 albertyip@gfgroup.com.hk +852 3719 1010 GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited 29-30/F,
More informationAutoZone, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE OUTPERFORM. Quick Read: Sales a Bit Soft, But Results Solid. September 22, 2016
EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE September 22, 2016 Stock Rating: OUTPERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target $900.00 AZO - NYSE $751.45 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 14% 52-Wk Range $819.54-$681.01 Shares Outstanding 30.8M
More informationEnbridge Energy Partners, L.P.
Equity Research Earnings Update April 30, 2007 Stock Rating: Sector Performer Sector Weighting: Market Weight 12-18 mo. Price Target $60.00 EEP-NYSE (4/27/07) $61.19 Key Indices: None 3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate
More informationMedifast, Inc. Top line still not taking shape, reiterate Neutral rating and decrease 2015 estimates. NYSE: MED
Medifast, Inc. NYSE: MED Top line still not taking shape, reiterate Neutral rating and decrease 2015 estimates. Medifast engages in the production, distribution, and sale of weight loss and weight loss
More informationO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Quick Read: Weather Likely Weighed Upon Sales a Bit
EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE July 27, 2016 Stock Rating: OUTPERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target $300.00 ORLY - NASDAQ $277.51 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 18% 52-Wk Range $284.66-$225.12 Shares Outstanding 99.4M
More informationLG International (001120) Poor 3Q expected to be just a blip WHAT S THE STORY? SUMMARY OF 3Q RESULTS
Company Update LG International (112) Poor 3Q expected to be just a blip Jaeseung Baek Analyst jaeseung.baek@samsung.com 822 22 7794 LG International (LGI) yesterday reported that its consolidated sales
More informationKingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$20.77
Equity Research Information Technology May 24, 216 Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$2.77 Full-year earnings forecast trimmed as 1Q16 results miss; maintain Buy but lower target price
More informationKingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ Q16 results in line, renewed growth outlook; maintain Buy with target price of HK$20.
Equity Research Information Technology Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$2.77 2Q16 results in line, renewed growth outlook; maintain Buy with target price of HK$2.77 2Q16 results in
More informationThe Medicines Company Model Update; Busy Catalyst Calendar Ahead
EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE March 23, 2016 Stock Rating: PERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target NA MDCO - NASDAQ $31.48 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate NA 52-Wk Range $43.79-$25.27 Shares Outstanding 68.9M Float 67.1M
More informationTVS Motors. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Margins trajectory looking up ; Accumulate November 01, 2017 Saksham Kaushal sakshamkaushal@plindia.com +91 22 66322235 Poorvi Banka poorvibanka@plindia.com +91 22 66322426 Rating Accumulate Price Rs709
More informationCONSENSUS OPERATING EARNINGS for the S&P 500, MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600 Indices, as well as the Sectors in the S&P /02/18
CONSENSUS OPERATING EARNINGS for the S&P 500, MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600 Indices, as well as the Sectors in the S&P 500. 02/02/18 Operating EPS Y/Y % chgs. S&P 500 Sector Q1 Q2 2017 Q3 Q4E Year Q1E Q2E
More informationAnta Sports (2020 HK)
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Anta Sports (2020 HK) Hold (downgraded) Target price: HK$22.80 Albert Yip, CFA SFC CE No. ADT599 albertyip@gfgroup.com.hk +852 3719 1010 GF Securities (Hong Kong)
More informationKingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ Strong earnings recovery ahead amid continued revenue momentum; maintain Buy
Equity Research Information Technology Mar 29, 216 Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$24.7 Strong earnings recovery ahead amid continued revenue momentum; maintain Buy FY1 results in
More informationCalgon Carbon Corporation Rating: Hold
WATER COMPANIES Christopher Bamman 212-218-3989 cbamman@morganjoseph.com Richard S. Paget, CFA 212-218-3894 rpaget@morganjoseph.com Company Update / Estimates Change February 25, 2008 Key Metrics CCC -
More informationEquity Research. Rockwell Collins, Inc. COL: Reduce FQ1 For Higher Restructuring; Savings To Offset. Outperform. November 16, 2015
November 16, 2015 Equity Research Rockwell Collins, Inc. COL: Reduce FQ1 For Higher Restructuring; Savings To Offset Summary. Rockwell Collins announced after the close on November 13 that its expected
More informationBTO: Q2/15 Earnings Preview
B2Gold Corp. (BTO-T: C$1.69), (BTG-N: US$1.31) August 13, 2015 BUY, High Risk Dundee target: C$2.75 BTO: Q2/15 Earnings Preview Joseph Fazzini, CPA, CA, CFA / (647) 428-8248 jfazzini@dundeecapitalmarkets.com
More informationChow Sang Sang (116 HK)
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Chow Sang Sang (116 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$14.00 1H16 China sales outperformed peers; still cautious on HK market Maintain Hold We revise down our
More informationEquity Research. Verizon Communications Inc. VZ: Resuming Equity Research Coverage At Outperform. Outperform. October 14, 2016
October 14, 2016 Equity Research Verizon Communications Inc. VZ: Resuming Equity Research Coverage At Outperform On August 1, 2016, we suspended equity research coverage on Verizon Communications Inc.
More informationAgilent Technologies, Inc.
February 14, 2018 Agilent Technologies, Inc. A: Q1 2018 Full Analysis -- Momentum Continues Outperform/$80 Life Science Tools Market Weight Earnings Estimates Revised Up What now? Agilent posted a very
More informationSterling Construction Company, Inc. Rating: Hold
ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION Richard S. Paget, CFA 212-218-3894 rpaget@morganjoseph.com Christopher Bamman 212-218-3989 cbamman@morganjoseph.com Company Update / Estimates Change May 11, 2006 Key Metrics
More informationAnalyst's Notes. Argus Recommendations
Report created Jan 17, 2018 Page 1 OF 5 Citigroup is one of world's largest banks, with global consumer banking, corporate banking, and investment banking operations. Of the largest U.S. banks, Citigroup
More informationA Black Box Approach to Valuation for the Transports
AIRFREIGHT & SURFACE TRANSPORTATION Airfreight & Logistics Market Weight Railroads Market Overweight Trucking Market Weight A Black Box Approach to Valuation for the Transports A Valuation Framework for
More informationClosed-End Equity Funds
RESEARCH WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT RESOURCES MAY 25, 2016 Closed-End Equity Funds NORTH AMERICA CHRISTOPHER K. BAXTER Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Christopher.Baxter@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-2562
More informationEquity Research. CenterPoint Energy, Inc. CNP: Utilities Save The Day In 15A & 16E Silent On Strategic Review Until 2H. Outperform.
February 26, 2016 Equity Research CenterPoint Energy, Inc. CNP: Utilities Save The Day In 15A & 16E Silent On Strategic Review Until 2H Summary. We continue to be encouraged that CNP is able to deliver
More informationMaruti Suzuki. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Healthy operating performance; Accumulate October 28, 2016 Rohan Korde rohankorde@plindia.com +91 22 66322235 Rating Accumulate Price Rs5,860 Target Price Rs6,356 Implied Upside 8.5% Sensex 27,916 Nifty
More informationEnergy & Natural Resources: Oil & Gas E&P
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN $37.61*) Energy & Natural Resources: Oil & Gas E&P Raise Price Target Houston, TX Outperform February 25, 2011 Price Target: $45.00 STOCK DATA 52 Week Range $45.30 $30.61
More informationEquity Research. Emergency Medical Services Corp (EMS-NYSE) EMS: Zacks Company Report - HOLD OUTLOOK SUMMARY DATA ZACKS ESTIMATES
Equity Research November 18, 2008 Chris Kallos www.zacks.com 111 North Canal Street, Chicago, IL 60606 Emergency Medical Services Corp EMS: Zacks Company Report - HOLD Current Recommendation Hold Prior
More informationEquity Research. Cummins Inc. CMI: Headwinds Continue Adjusting Estimates & Maintain Market Perform. Market Perform.
August 2, 2016 Equity Research CMI: Headwinds Continue Adjusting Estimates & Maintain Market Perform Summary: CMI continued to encounter difficult end market conditions that deteriorated through Q2 16
More informationSodaStream Follow-Up: Very Strong 4Q Results Reflect Broad-Based Growth; Estimates Raised
EQUITY RESEARCH COMPANY UPDATE March 1, 2011 Stock Rating: OUTPERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target $48.00 SODA - NASDAQ $39.68 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 30% 52-Wk Range $46.88-$20.00 Shares Outstanding 19.2M Float
More informationHDFC Standard Life Insurance
Decent performance on all fronts January 21, 2018 Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com / +91 22 66322258 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322214 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22
More informationLIC Housing Finance. Source: Company Data; PL Research
High prepayment remains a drag; earnings momentum to sustain April 20, 2016 Nitin Kumar nitinkumar@plindia.com / +91 22 66322236 Pritesh Bumb priteshbumb@plindia.com / +91 22 66322232 Vidhi Shah vidhishah@plindia.com
More informationNote Important Disclosures on Pages 5-6 Note Analyst Certification on Page 5
COMPANY UPDATE / TARGET CHANGE ESTIMATE CHANGE Key Metrics SR - NYSE - as of 8/1/17 $73.40 Price Target $90.00 52-Week Range $59.54 - $73.70 Shares Outstanding (mm) 48.3 Market Cap. ($mm) $3,542.2 1-Mo.
More informationSocket Mobile, Inc. (SCKT) NR Price Target: $6 Price: $4.04 Risk Rating: M. Sidoti & Company, LLC
October 27, 2017 Company Sponsored Research Morning Meeting Note Earnings Release Socket Mobile, Inc. (SCKT) Equity Research Maintain $6 Price Target; Robust Demand From Application Developer, Despite
More informationJindal Steel & Power
Good show in tough environment; well placed for long term BUY May 05, 2016 Kamlesh Bagmar kamleshbagmar@plindia.com +91 22 66322237 Ankit Shah ankitshah@plindia.com +91 22 66322244 Rating Accumulate Price
More informationMahindra & Mahindra. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Tractors drive Q2 performance; Accumulate November 11, 2016 Rohan Korde rohankorde@plindia.com +91 22 66322235 Rating Accumulate Price Rs1,242 Target Price Rs1,503 Implied Upside 21.0% Sensex 26,819 Nifty
More informationLAIDLAW & COMPANY Est. 1842
LAIDLAW & COMPANY London New York San Francisco Boston EQUITY RESEARCH Company Report Alimera Sciences (ALIM - $1.80) Iluvien sales continue their slow & steady growth ALIM reported 1Q16 roughly in-line
More informationNational Industrialization Co. Diversified Operations Industrial NIC AB: Saudi Arabia 25 May 2014
RSI10 National Industrialization Co. NIC AB: Saudi Arabia 25 May 2014 Rating Target price Current price OVERWEIGHT SAR37.30 (18.7% upside) SAR31.40 Key themes & implications Sluggish petrochemical prices
More informationCIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012)
Date: 10/11/12 Analyst Name: Matthew Landen CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and Ticker: UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Section (A) Summary Recommendation Buy: No Target Price: Stop-
More informationCoal India. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Misses estimates; Higher costs dims hope for earnings recovery February 13, 2017 Kamlesh Bagmar kamleshbagmar@plindia.com +91 22 66322237 Rating Reduce Price Rs325 Target Price Rs320 Implied Upside 1.5%
More informationDollarama Inc. Q2 F2017 Preview. (1) Growth expected to continue (2) A deeper look at valuation HIGHLIGHTS. The NBF Daily Bulletin.
DOL (T) $97.04 Stock Rating: Outperform (Unchanged) Target: $105.00 (Was $104.00) Risk Rating: Average (Unchanged) Est. Total Return: 8.6% Stock Data: 52-week High-Low (Canada) Bloomberg $98.94 - $66.32
More informationCalAmp Corp. CAMP - $ NASDAQ Buy
Scott W. Searle, CFA, (646) 616-2782 ssearle@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820 COMPANY NOTE EQUITY RESEARCH June 28, 2018 Technology: Communications, Wireless & IoT CalAmp Corp. CAMP
More informationStryker Corp. Post-4Q15 Thoughts
EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE January 27, 2016 Stock Rating: PERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target $104.00 SYK - NYSE $96.02 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 9% 52-Wk Range $105.34-$86.68 Shares Outstanding 378.4M Float
More informationTable 1. Sum-of-the-parts valuation. EPS Growth
(001120) Solid 4Q, excluding one-offs (LGI) yesterday reported that its consolidated sales rose 3.8% q-q to KRW3.8t in 4Q, but that its operating profit plunged 98% q-q to KRW600m with a net loss of KRW237.2b,
More informationCoal India. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Realisations drive the beat; E auction to surprise positively in H2 November 13, 2015 Kamlesh Bagmar kamleshbagmar@plindia.com +91 22 66322237 Ankit Shah ankitshah@plindia.com +91 22 66322244 Rating BUY
More informationSodaStream Follow-Up: 1Q Results Better Than Expected; Guidance Raised; Wal-Mart!!!
EQUITY RESEARCH COMPANY UPDATE May 9, 2012 Stock Rating: OUTPERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target $55.00 SODA - NASDAQ $36.90 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 30% 52-Wk Range $79.72-$27.60 Shares Outstanding 19.9M Float
More informationDaphne (210 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$1.07. Takeaways from company visit. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary.
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Daphne (21 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$1.7 Takeaways from company visit Maintain Hold We recently visited Daphne to gain a more in-depth insight into its
More informationComcast EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE OUTPERFORM. Comcast 2Q16 Follow-Up: Raising Price Target to $74, 8x 2017E EBITDA.
EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE July 29, 2016 Stock Rating: OUTPERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target $74.00 CMCSA - NASDAQ $67.86 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 17% 52-Wk Range $68.36-$50.01 Shares Outstanding 2,446.0M
More informationBharat Petroleum Corporation
Higher inventory loss drag earnings August 14, 2017 Avishek Datta avishekdatta@plindia.com +91 22 66322254 Rating BUY Price Rs479 Target Price Rs553 Implied Upside 15.4% Sensex 31,449 Nifty 9,794 (Prices
More informationPhilip Morris International Inc.
September 8, 2017 PM: Marlboro Prices Going Up In Japan Outperform/$140 Overweight Company Note PM Wins Approval to Raise Marlboro Retail Prices by 2.2% in Japan Effective October 1 - Should Be A Positive
More informationZain KSA restructuring ensures fresh start
Vol mn RSI10 Zain KSA ZAINKSA AB: Saudi Arabia US$5.41bn 48.3% US$142.1mn Market cap Free float Avg. daily volume Target price 15.90 9.68% over current Consensus price 16.10 11.0% over current Current
More informationFIRST GLANCE COMMENT. Enbridge Inc. (TSX: ENB; 36.69; NYSE: ENB) Q1/07 Results Generally In Line. Sector Perform Average Risk. Impact Neutral.
125 WEEKS 17DEC04-01MAY07 Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX HI-20MAY05 110.97 110.00 HI/LO DIFF -24.90% 100.00 90.00 40.00 38.00 36.00 34.00 32.00 30.00 28.00 7500 6000 4500 3000 1500 2005 D J F M A M J J A
More informationNote Important Disclosures on Page 6-7. Note Analyst Certification on Pages 6.
COMPANY UPDATE/ESTIMATE CHANGE Key Metrics FFO HR - NYSE - (2/14/2018) $27.70 Prior Current Prior Current Price Target N/A 2009 2010E 2010E 2011E 2011E 1Q 52-Week $0.51 Range -- $0.51 E $27.48 - -- $36.25
More informationLuk Fook (590 HK) Hold Target price: HK$ Downgrade to Hold on more challenging HK & Macau market outlook. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Luk Fook (590 HK) Hold Target price: HK$24.60 Albert Yip, CFA SFC CE No. ADT599 albertyip@gfgroup.com.hk +852 3719 1010 GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited
More informationZain KSA bogged down by high debt
Vol th RSI10 Zain KSA ZAINKSA AB: Saudi Arabia US$2.464bn 48.3% US$16.50mn Market cap Free float Avg. daily volume Target price 7.30 12.31% over current Consensus price 7.62 17.2% over current Current
More informationDollarama Inc. Q4 F2017 Results. A straight-forward beat and other notable business updates HIGHLIGHTS. The NBF Daily Bulletin.
DOL (T) $110.88 Stock Rating: Outperform (Unchanged) Target: $122.00 (Was $113.00) Risk Rating: Below Average (Unchanged) Est. Total Return: 10.4% Stock Data: 52-week High-Low (Canada) Bloomberg $104.94
More informationJK Lakshmi Cement. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Expansions on schedule; lower costs to aid margins June 28, 2016 Kamlesh Bagmar kamleshbagmar@plindia.com +91 22 66322237 Ankit Shah ankitshah@plindia.com +91 22 66322244 Rating BUY Price Rs385 Target
More informationMphasis. Increased confidence on margins. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Increased confidence on margins July 25, 2016 Govind Agarwal govindagarwal@plindia.com +91 22 66322300 Rating BUY Price Rs540 Target Price Rs570 Implied Upside 5.6% Sensex 28,095 Nifty 8,636 (Prices as
More informationGlobal Equity Strategy Report
Global Investment Strategy Global Equity Strategy Report April 26, 2017 Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy Scott Wren Senior Global Equity Strategist Analysis and outlook for the equity
More informationSilicon Works (108320)
Company Note June 8, 2018 12M rating BUY (Maintain) OLED growth starts with Silicon Works 12M TP W56,000 Up/downside +38% from W56,000 2Q18 OP to surge 165% YoY to W8.4bn Despite disappointing 1Q18 results,
More informationAnalyzing Tax Reform & Impact On Regulated Utilities
Analyzing Tax Reform & Impact On Regulated Utilities Greg Gordon Durgesh Chopra Evercore ISI December 7, 2017 The Impact On A Regulated Utility: Some Good Stuff & Some Bad Stuff 1. Lowering the Corporate
More informationAnalyst's Notes. Argus Recommendations
Report created Dec 29, 2011 Page 1 OF 5 United Technologies is an aerospace-industrial conglomerate whose portfolio includes Climate Control & Security (which now combines UTC Fire Security with Carrier),
More informationAnalyst's Notes. Argus Recommendations
Report created Jan 24, 2018 Page 1 OF 5 General Electric is one of the largest publicly traded companies in the world and is classified as a diversified industrials business. The stock is a component of
More informationApollo Ty Apollo res res Lt d Lt Exh x i h b i i b t 1: Con o so n l so ilda d t a e t d f d inan an ial i s and s and val v ua u ti a on o
Apollo Tyres Ltd Focus back on core business; robust margin to drive cash flows We recommend BUY with a PT of Rs255 based on 11.45x FY15E EPS. We have increased our FY15E EPS by 22% led by healthier margin
More informationAmerican Tower Corp. AMT 3Q16 Results: Solid Quarter with a Beat and Raise on EBITDA
EQUITY RESEARCH COMPANY UPDATE October 27, 2016 Stock Rating: OUTPERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target $130.00 AMT - NYSE $115.67 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 20% 52-Wk Range $118.26-$83.07 Shares Outstanding 430.0M
More informationCoal India. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Lower costs and higher scale off sets weaker realisations February 12, 2016 Kamlesh Bagmar kamleshbagmar@plindia.com +91 22 66322237 Ankit Shah ankitshah@plindia.com +91 22 66322244 Rating BUY Price Rs305
More informationLuk Fook (590 HK) Strong 1Q gem-set SSS in China. Core profit (HK$ m) Net profit (HK$ m) Turnover (HK$ m)
Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Luk Fook (590 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$23.10 Strong 1Q gem-set SSS in China China gem-set SSS outperformed CTF SSS in China improved from -5% in 1QFY15
More informationChina TCM (570 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ H17 earnings beat, 2017 growth guidance reaffirmed; TP raised to HK$5.
Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Equity Research Healthcare China TCM (570 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$5.40
More informationCoal India. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Earnings marred by weak realisations; Downgrade to Accumulate September 14, 2016 Kamlesh Bagmar kamleshbagmar@plindia.com +91 22 66322237 Ankit Shah ankitshah@plindia.com +91 22 66322244 Rating Accumulate
More informationIGG (799 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$3.75. Strengthened global operation and development capability; maintain Buy but cut TP to HK$3.
Equity Research Information Technology IGG (799 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$3.7 Strengthened global operation and development capability; maintain Buy but cut TP to HK$3.7 Lowerthanexpected 2Q
More informationMaruti Suzuki. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Run continues, Royalty reduction positive ; Buy January 29, 2018 Saksham Kaushal sakshamkaushal@plindia.com +91 22 66322235 Poorvi Banka poorvibanka@plindia.com +91 22 66322426 Rating BUY Price Rs9,277
More informationSPECULATIVE BUY Target: C$1.40. Event. Impact. Action
Daily Letter 1 Intrinsyc Software International Inc. ICS : TSX : C$0.49 SPECULATIVE BUY Target: C$1.40 Peter Misek, CA, CPA, CFA 1.416.869.7920 peter.misek@canaccordadams.com Dushan Batrovic, MBA 1.416.869.7399
More informationBharat Forge. Exports remain subdued, outlook better. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Exports remain subdued, outlook better November 08, 2016 Rohan Korde rohankorde@plindia.com +91 22 66322235 Rating BUY Price Rs850 Target Price Rs957 Implied Upside 12.6% Sensex 27,591 Nifty 8,544 (Prices
More informationAllcargo Logistics. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Slow capex continue to impact PES, weak show continues May 24, 2018 Keyur Pandya keyurpandya@plindia.com +912266322247 R Sreesankar rsreesankar@plindia.com +912266322214 Rating Accumulate Price Rs120 Target
More information