Bharat Heavy Electricals
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- Julianna Lawrence
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1 4QFY18 Result Update Bharat Heavy Electricals Reuters: BHEL.BO; Bloomberg: BHEL IN Decent Performance, Challenging Outlook; Retain Sell Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) posted 4QFY18 revenues of Rs101.5bn, up 4% YoY, 6%/4% below our/consensus estimates, respectively. Gross margin increased 380bps YoY to 49.5% in 4QFY18. Other expenses fell 32% YoY to Rs19bn owing to netting-off of forex gain of Rs1.9bn (versus the earlier practice of including it in other income). Consequently, EBITDA stood at Rs12.3bn, translating to an operating margin of 12.1%, above our/consensus estimate of 8.1%/8.6%, respectively. Impacted by a high tax rate (60% versus 19.7% YoY), the bottom-line stood at Rs4.6bn, below our estimate of Rs5.4bn. Order inflow in 4QFY18 stood at Rs253bn aided by receipt of Patratu (Rs117bn) and Panki (Rs44bn) EPC projects. Order backlog rose 12% YoY to Rs1,181bn. BHEL is focusing on ramping up its executable order book (Rs986bn) to achieve better operating leverage. However, the tender pipeline remains modest (8GW-10GW orders per annum likely), while the pricing pressure remains severe. We have cut our earnings estimates by 11%/13% for FY19/FY20, respectively, (mainly because of a higher tax rate of 35%) and retained Sell rating on BHEL with a revised target price of Rs78 (from Rs90 earlier) based on 16x FY20E earnings. Order inflow position: BHEL reported order inflow of Rs253bn, up 52% YoY, in 4QFY18 and Rs409bn in FY18 versus a low base of Rs235bn YoY (refer Exhibit 5). Among the four large longdelayed L1 projects of BHEL, two were awarded in 9MFY18 (2x660MW Udangudi and 1x660MW Bhusaval) while the other two were awarded in 4QFY18 (3x800MW Patratu and 1x660MW Panki). BHEL expects annual order placement of 8GW-10GW in the medium term based on tenders in the pipeline. BHEL is favourably placed in orders worth Rs160bn, primarily comprising EPC of 2x660MW Talcher and 1x800MW Singreni projects as well as FGD opportunities worth Rs24bn. BHEL is also scaling up its industry segment including sectors such as railways, defence, transmission and solar where the size of contracts is unlikely to compensate for power EPC projects. Order backlog status: Order backlog grew 12% YoY to Rs1,181bn, at a five-year high, while the executable order book rose to Rs986bn (up from Rs810bn QoQ) driven by the release of longdelayed L1 projects. The remaining Rs200bn order book includes non-moving projects from private sector firms (Rattan India Power, Visa Power, Monnet Power, Surana Power, Abhijeet Power), of which some projects are likely to get cancelled. Outlook: With a rising preference towards renewable energy generation and transmission loss reduction, we are structurally negative on thermal power capacity addition beyond 10GW per annum in India, clearly insufficient for a much higher installed capacity base of the BTG industry (35GW). With insufficient order placement activity in the industry, 5% RoE and 7% RoCE in FY20E and a high debtor position, we remain negative on BHEL. Key risks: Key risks to our Sell rating on BHEL are winning a large-ticket size order (like an ultra mega power project), award of large projects on nomination basis, sudden revival in thermal power sector capex and a fall in competitive intensity leading to better realisation. 30 May 2018 SELL Sector: Capital Goods CMP: Rs84 Target Price: Rs78 Downside: 7% Chirag Muchhala Research Analyst chirag.muchhala@nirmalbang.com Sohil Icewala Research Associate sohil.icewala@nirmalbang.com Key Data Current Shares O/S (mn) 3,671.4 Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 306.6/ Wk H / L (Rs) 108/74 Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 5,956,188 Price Performance (%) 1 M 6 M 1 Yr BHEL (3.9) (10.8) (18.3) Nifty Index (0.6) Source: Bloomberg Y/E March standalone (Rsmn) 4QFY17 3QFY18 4QFY18 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 YoY (%) Revenues 97,795 67, , , , Raw material costs 53,143 38,940 51,289 (3.5) , ,435 (5.6) Staff costs 10,847 13,385 18, ,946 60, Other expenses 28,118 11,706 19,060 (32.2) ,811 48,229 (1.2) Total expenditure 92,108 64,031 89,154 (3.2) , ,928 (1.4) EBITDA 5,687 3,021 12, ,614 19, EBITDA margin (%) Depreciation 2,139 1,820 2, ,488 7,864 (7.4) Interest costs 3, (76.9) ,506 2,546 (27.4) Other income 2,274 1,308 1,979 (13.0) ,659 6,931 (9.5) PBT 2,686 1,898 11, ,278 15, Tax ,827 1, , ,320 7, Net profit 2,155 1,532 4, ,959 8, NPM (%) EPS (Rs) Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research
2 Exhibit 1: Financial summary Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net revenues 254, , , , ,908 EBITDA (13,667) 10,614 19,329 25,061 30,421 Net profit (7,096) 4,959 8,066 13,994 17,851 EPS (Rs) (1.9) EPS growth (%) NA NA EBITDA margin (%) (5.4) P/E (x) NA P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) NA Dividend yield (%) RoCE (%) (7.1) RoE (%) (2.2) Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Other takeaways from 4QFY18 conference-call Receivables as of FY18-end stood at Rs355bn, of which collectible debtors accounted for Rs175bn while Rs164bn are deferred debtors. Out of the total debtors, customer segment-wise break-up includes central PSUs (Rs147bn), SEBs (Rs132bn), private sector (Rs55bn) and exports (Rs14bn). BHEL has changed its accounting policy with respect to treatment of forex gains. The forex gains now get netted off from other expenses compared to the earlier practice of including it in other income. Forex gains stood at Rs5.2bn in FY18 and Rs1.9bn in 4QFY18. Out of Rs409bn order inflow in FY18, the power sector accounted for Rs333bn while the industry sector (including international projects) accounted for Rs76bn. Raw material costs, as a percentage of sales, were low on account of: (a) Design optimisation. (b) Product indegenisation. (c) Localisation of super-critical technology. (d) Bulk sourcing benefits. However, with rising commodity prices, raw material costs are likely to inch upwards. BHEL has signed MoU target in respect of FY19 revenues from operations of Rs320bn at an excellent level and Rs300bn at a very good level with the Government of India. The tax rate in FY18 was high (49%) because of Rs2bn worth of deferred tax. BHEL took one-time charge in respect of those deferred tax assets where the tax benefit is not likely to continue in future. In FY19, the tax rate is expected to normalise to 35%. In FY18, order inflow from the industry segment rose 22% YoY to Rs75bn. The key sectors includes defence (Rs5.8bn, up from Rs5.3bn YoY), transport (Rs21.8bn, up from Rs10bn YoY), solar (Rs5.3bn) and water (Rs700mn). Orders from captive power plants stood at Rs16bn while FGD/SCR/boiler modification orders were Rs33bn. BHEL has made total provision worth Rs19.6bn towards stranded projects of the private sector. Wage revision impact in FY18 on employee costs amounted to Rs8bn. In FY19, it is likely to rise by Rs5bn. In 4QFY18, power segment revenues grew 2% YoY to Rs83bn with EBIT of Rs9bn (margin of 10.9%, down 300bps YoY). In FY18, the power segment s sales (82% of total revenues) were flat at Rs230bn while EBIT margin expanded 100bps YoY to 12.1%. In 4QFY18, the industry segment posted 14% YoY decline in revenues to Rs15.2bn with EBIT of Rs572mn (margin of 3.8% compared to a high base of 15.2% margin YoY). In FY18, the industry segment s sales (18% of total revenues) fell 17% YoY to Rs50bn with EBIT margin decline of 40bps YoY to 3.6%. 2 Bharat Heavy Electricals
3 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 Exhibit 2: Actual performance versus our estimates, Bloomberg consensus estimates 4QFY18 (Rsmn) Actual Our estimate Deviation (%) Bloomberg cons. Est. Deviation (%) Revenues 101, ,380 (6.4) 105,474 (3.8) EBITDA 12,316 8, , PAT 4,572 5,384 (15.1) 4,623 (1.1) Source: Company, Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 3: Segment-wise snapshot Y/E March 4QFY17 3QFY18 4QFY18 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 YoY (%) Revenues (Rsmn) Power 81,090 53,558 83, , , Industry 17,653 11,386 15,205 (13.9) ,456 50,343 (16.7) Revenue mix (%) Power Industry EBIT (Rsmn) Power 11,291 7,751 9,094 (19.5) ,346 27, Industry 2, (78.7) ,442 1,796 (26.5) EBIT margin (%) Power Industry Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 4: Quarterly order inflow and backlog position (Rsbn) Order intake tapers off (Rsbn) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Order intake (LHS) Order backlog (RHS) Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 5: Annual order inflow trend (Rsbn) ( (Rsbn) ,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Order intake (LHS) Order backlog (RHS) Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research 3 Bharat Heavy Electricals
4 Exhibit 6: Change in our estimates (Rsmn) Old New Deviation (%) Y/E March FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Revenues 326, , , , EBITDA 20,220 25,682 25,061 30, PAT 15,690 20,561 13,994 17,851 (10.8) (13.2) Note Change in treatment of forex gains (netting off from other expenses now versus inclusion in other income earlier) and a higher tax rate are the two key reasons for the rise in EBITDA estimates but a decline in PAT estimates. Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 7: Key BTG projects awarded over the past three years in India Project Developer Winner Value (Rsbn) Unit size (MW) Scope Panki UPRVUNL BHEL x660 EPC Patratu NTPC-JBVNL BHEL x800 EPC Bhusawal MAHAGENCO BHEL x660 EPC Udangudi TANGEDCO BHEL x660 EPC Maitree (Rampal) NTPC-BPDB BHEL x660 EPC + extended BoP Bithnok and Barsingsar Neyveli Lignite Reliance Infra x250 each EPC Ghatampur Neyveli Lignite Bharat Forge - Alstom x660 TG Ghatampur Neyveli Lignite L&T x660 Boiler Rourkela NSPCL BHEL x250 EPC Uppur TANGEDCO BHEL x800 BTG Tuticorin SPIC Electric BHEL x525 BTG Karimnagar NTPC Bharat Forge - Alstom x800 TG Karimnagar NTPC BHEL x800 Boiler North Chennai TANGEDCO BHEL x800 BTG Barh 1 NTPC Doosan x660 Boiler Vijaywada* APGENCO BHEL x800 BTG Krishnapatnam* APGENCO BHEL x800 BTG Harduaganj UPRVUNL Toshiba - JSW x660 EPC Yadadri* TSGENCO BHEL x800 EPC Khargone NTPC L&T x660 EPC Manuguru* TSGENCO BHEL x270 EPC Kothagudem* TSGENCO BHEL x800 EPC Yelahanka KPCL BHEL x370 EPC Wanakbori GSECL BHEL x800 EPC Ennore SEZ TNEB BHEL x660 EPC + extended BoP Shree Singaji MPGENCO L&T x660 EPC Tanda NTPC L&T x660 Boiler Tanda NTPC Bharat Forge - Alstom x660 TG Ennore TNEB Lanco Infratech x660 EPC + extended BoP Note:* Three projects in Telangana and two projects in Andhra Pradesh awarded to BHEL on nomination basis Source: Respective companies, Industry, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 8: Upcoming projects for bidding Project State Developer Unit size (MW) Scope Singreni # Telangana SCCL 1x800 EPC Nashik Maharashtra MAHAGENCO 1x660 BTG Pakaldul Hydro # Jammu & Kashmir NHPC 4x250 EPC Talcher # Odisha NTPC 2x660 BTG Singrauli Uttar Pradesh NTPC 2x660 BTG Neyveli Tamil Nadu NLC 2x660 BTG Sagardighi West Bengal WBPDC 1x660 BTG Khurja Uttar Pradesh THDC 2x660 BTG Buxar Bihar SJVN 2x660 BTG Note: # BHEL has L1 status; Source: Industry, Nirmal Bang Research 4 Bharat Heavy Electricals
5 Financial statement Exhibit 9: Income statement Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net sales 254, , , , ,908 YoY growth (%) (15.7) Raw material costs 161, , , , ,047 Staff costs 53,798 53,946 60,265 65,661 71,763 Other overheads 53,507 48,811 48,229 55,507 61,677 Total expenditure 268, , , , ,487 EBITDA (13,667) 10,614 19,329 25,061 30,421 YoY growth (%) NA NA EBITDA margin (%) (5.4) Other income 14,977 7,659 6,931 7,446 8,146 Interest costs 3,595 3,506 2,546 2,859 3,145 Depreciation 9,357 8,488 7,864 8,119 8,374 Profit before tax (11,642) 6,278 15,850 21,529 27,048 Tax (4,546) 1,320 7,784 7,535 9,196 Net profit (7,096) 4,959 8,066 13,994 17,851 PAT margin (%) (2.8) EPS (Rs) (1.9) YoY growth (%) NA NA Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 11: Balance sheet Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Share capital 4,895 4,895 7,343 7,343 7,343 Reserves 316, , , , ,506 Net worth 321, , , , ,849 Total loans 1, Total liabilities 323, , , , ,421 Gross block 132, , , , ,913 Depreciation 93, , , , ,685 Net block 38,251 34,911 29,775 26,602 22,227 Capital work in progress 4,552 2,731 2,941 1,000 1,000 Investments 6,642 6,614 6,907 6,907 6,907 Inventories 96,022 73,724 62,588 77,655 92,317 Debtors 335, , , , ,606 Cash 100, , , , ,684 Other current assets 33,137 32,357 31,575 37,914 43,536 Total current assets 565, , , , ,143 Creditors 94,446 93, , , ,546 Other current liabilities & provisions 234, , , , ,570 Total current liabilities 328, , , , ,116 Net current assets 237, , , , ,027 Deferred tax asset (net) 36,592 38,414 36,259 36,259 36,259 Total assets 323, , , , ,421 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 10: Cash flow Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E EBIT (23,024) 2,125 11,465 16,942 22,046 (Inc.)/dec. in working capital 34,186 (76) (1,537) (13,832) (10,723) Cash flow from operations 11,161 2,050 9,928 3,111 11,323 Other income 14,977 7,659 6,931 7,446 8,146 Depreciation 9,357 8,488 7,864 8,119 8,374 Tax paid (-) (9,839) (3,141) (5,629) (7,535) (9,196) Net cash from operations 25,657 15,056 19,094 11,140 18,647 Capital expenditure (-) (5,578) (3,327) (2,938) (3,005) (4,000) Net cash after capex 20,079 11,729 16,156 8,136 14,647 Interest paid (-) (3,595) (3,506) (2,546) (2,859) (3,145) Dividends paid (-) (1,179) (4,525) (7,818) (9,450) (10,739) Inc./(dec.) in total borrowings 653 (367) (324) - - (Inc.)/dec. in investments (2,465) 27 (293) - - Cash from financial activities (6,586) (8,371) (10,980) (12,309) (13,884) Others (10,760) Opening cash balance 98, , , , ,920 Closing cash balance 100, , , , ,684 Change in cash balance 2,733 4,058 7,994 (6,992) 764 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 12: Key ratios Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Per share (Rs) EPS (1.9) Book value Valuation (x) P/E NA P/BV EV/EBITDA NA EV/sales Return ratios (%) RoCE (7.1) RoE (2.2) RoIC (10.7) Profitability ratios (%) EBITDA margin (5.4) EBIT margin (9.0) PAT margin (2.8) Turnover ratios Total asset turnover ratio (x) Debtor days Inventory days Creditor days Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research 5 Bharat Heavy Electricals
6 Rating track Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs) 27 January 2012 Buy January 2012 Buy April 2012 Hold April 2012 Hold May 2012 Hold July 2012 Hold September 2012 Hold October 2012 Sell October 2012 Sell January 2013 Sell February 2013 Sell March 2013 Sell April 2013 Sell April 2013 Sell May 2013 Sell July 2013 Sell August 2013 Sell October 2013 Sell November 2013 Sell January 2014 Sell February 2014 Sell April 2014 Sell April 2014 Sell June 2014 Sell July 2014 Sell August 2014 Sell October 2014 Sell November 2014 Sell December 2014 Sell January 2015 Sell February 2015 Sell April 2015 Sell April 2015 Sell May 2015 Sell July 2015 Sell August 2015 Sell October 2015 Sell November 2015 Sell January 2016 Sell February 2016 Sell April 2016 Sell April 2016 Sell May 2016 Sell July 2016 Sell September 2016 Sell October 2016 Sell November 2016 Sell January 2017 Sell February 2017 Sell February 2017 Sell April 2017 Sell May 2017 Sell July 2017 Sell August 2017 Sell October 2017 Sell November 2017 Sell January 2018 Sell February 2018 Sell April 2018 Sell May 2018 Sell Bharat Heavy Electricals
7 Apr-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 May-18 Rating track graph Not Covered Covered 7 Bharat Heavy Electricals
8 DISCLOSURES This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as NBEPL ) for private circulation. NBEPL is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH NBEPL is also a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments. NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or contrary views on stocks and markets. NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market. NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. Analyst Certification: I/We, Mr. Chirag Muchhala the research analysts, and Sohil Icewala, the research associate are the author of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflects my/our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. 8 Bharat Heavy Electricals
9 Disclaimer Stock Ratings Absolute Returns BUY > 15% ACCUMULATE -5% to15% SELL < -5% This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. NBEPL is not soliciting any action based upon it. Nothing in this research shall be construe d as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any such transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. This research has been prepared for the general use of the clients of NBEPL and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed or redistributed to any other person in any form. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any way. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. NBEPL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject NBEPL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions. The report is based on the information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up-to-date and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. NBEPL or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. NBEPL or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. NBEPL reserves its absolute discretion and right to make or refrain from making modifications and alterations to this statement from time to time. Nevertheless, NBEPL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide information in response to specific client queries. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. Opinions expressed are subject to change without any notice. Neither the company nor the director or the employees of NBEPL accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. Here it may be noted that neither NBEPL, nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profit that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information contained in this report. Copyright of this document vests exclusively with NBEPL. Our reports are also available on our website Access all our reports on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Factset. Team Details: Name Id Direct Line Rahul Arora CEO rahul.arora@nirmalbang.com - Girish Pai Head of Research girish.pai@nirmalbang.com / 18 Dealing Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk ravi.jagtiani@nirmalbang.com , Pradeep Kasat Dealing Desk pradeep.kasat@nirmalbang.com /8101, Michael Pillai Dealing Desk michael.pillai@nirmalbang.com /8103, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. Correspondence Address B-2, 301/302, Marathon Innova, Nr. Peninsula Corporate Park, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai Board No. : /1; Fax. : Bharat Heavy Electricals
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Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 2904 Recommendation CMP Target Price BUY Rs. 312 Rs. 443 Better times ahead! reported a good set of numbers in
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